The Sun: Atlantic Division Preview

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Americanadian

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Sep 11, 2016
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Yep, we do have to wait and see and I am interested in your projection modeling. The back up goalie factor is interesting.

This might be another reason why I don't see Ottawa making that big of a jump. A lot on Ullmark...staying healthy, playing a lot and continuing his level of play. They do not have a strong back up in Ottawa either and if he has to play 30+ games that is a factor as well.
Forsberg is actually a very good back up. He was poor last year but his prior history in Ottawa is very strong. He had 33.6 goals saved above expected in 82 games (0.45 GSAA/60) for Ottawa from 2021 to 2023. Last year he had -5.9 GSAA in 30 games (-0.23 GSAA/60). If they can get something in the middle of 0.45 and -0.23 GSAA/60 that will be a position of strength for them.
 

conFABulator

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Apr 11, 2021
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Forsberg is actually a very good back up. He was poor last year but his prior history in Ottawa is very strong. He had 33.6 goals saved above expected in 82 games (0.45 GSAA/60) for Ottawa from 2021 to 2023. Last year he had -5.9 GSAA in 30 games (-0.23 GSAA/60). If they can get something in the middle of 0.45 and -0.23 GSAA/60 that will be a position of strength for them.
It is another "if" on the Ottawa ledger. I really don't want to come across as a Sens hater, though I am not a fan. I have them as a very improved team. I don't see a jump of 25 points in the standings, even just based on how tough the schedule and competition is. That's 12 or 13 more wins.

I don't see it.
 

Americanadian

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It is another "if" on the Ottawa ledger. I really don't want to come across as a Sens hater, though I am not a fan. I have them as a very improved team. I don't see a jump of 25 points in the standings, even just based on how tough the schedule and competition is. That's 12 or 13 more wins.

I don't see it.
We'll check back in 7 months.

Again - I'm assuming health for all teams.
 

Racer88

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Sep 29, 2020
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Everybody's objective is to become a cup winning team. Only one does it each year, and the path there can vary pretty drastically. The post isn't about that though. It's about the competition we've had to win the division. We won our division in 2021, and our 2022 season would have been President's trophy winning in 5 years of the cap era, but we had some of the best President's Trophy winners through the cap era in our division in 2019, 2020, 2022, and 2023.

The odds makers are fine. The issue is emotion on this board leading to incorrect conclusions.
I’m not so sure it’s emotions as much as it’s historical evidence the last 7-8 years that this core can’t get it done and you cannot build a cup contender when 4 core forwards consume over 50% of the cap.
So until someone builds a team like that and it wins we are correct and everything else is just wishful thinking or overly optimistic thinking

Everybody's objective is to become a cup winning team. Only one does it each year, and the path there can vary pretty drastically. The post isn't about that though. It's about the competition we've had to win the division. We won our division in 2021, and our 2022 season would have been President's trophy winning in 5 years of the cap era, but we had some of the best President's Trophy winners through the cap era in our division in 2019, 2020, 2022, and 2023.

The odds makers are fine. The issue is emotion on this board leading to incorrect conclusions.
As far as the first response…….saying we would have won if there wasn’t better teams in our division is crazy.
Is that what you are really saying because I think all teams would be winners if they didn’t have to play better teams.
To be the best you have to beat the best……..competition 101
 

Sypher04

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Jan 20, 2011
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Is 7 more wins over 50+ starts that unrealistic? Korpisalo was 21-26-4 last year. As far as the projections - I'm looking at goals saved above expected which factors in shot location. It's not a perfect indicator of defensive performance but it's much more accurate than just reading across save percentage.

As overall standings go I currently have:

View attachment 905941

That is not factoring in any mid-season trades. Cap space is based on 20 man starting lineups.


As far as Boston goes - the same model I am using for this season had them winning the presidents trophy in 22-23 and winning the Atlantic last year. This is the first year my model has them missing the playoffs.

It’d be strange to see Carolina win the presidents trophy, especially by this large of a margin, after the tire fire of an offseason they just had.
 

Evilhomer

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Oct 10, 2019
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It’d be strange to see Carolina win the presidents trophy, especially by this large of a margin, after the tire fire of an offseason they just had.
I think Carolina will drop to third place in the Metro behind the Rangers and Devils.
 

Menzinger

Kessel4LadyByng
Apr 24, 2014
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Yep, we do have to wait and see and I am interested in your projection modeling. The back up goalie factor is interesting.

This might be another reason why I don't see Ottawa making that big of a jump. A lot on Ullmark...staying healthy, playing a lot and continuing his level of play. They do not have a strong back up in Ottawa either and if he has to play 30+ games that is a factor as well.

Also if the Sens are looking like there's a reasonable chance they may miss the postseason and Ullmark remains reluctant to extend, we could easily see him moved before the tdl.

Imo they're heading back to the bottom half of the league yet again
 
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Frostitute

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Is this to make the playoffs?! If so it can't hurt to throw a bill on MTL. I wont miss it if they dont and woohoo if they do.

Vegas seems to over value the Leafs every year. They always have the Leafs at short odds to win the Cup even tho they struggle to get out of the first round.

Bos too. They have had the same struggles as the Leafs over the past 8 years but with a fraction more success in the playoffs
I wonder id you can just do a bet against the Leafs. Then either way I'd win.
 

weems

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Jul 3, 2008
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Is this to make the playoffs?! If so it can't hurt to throw a bill on MTL. I wont miss it if they dont and woohoo if they do.


I wonder id you can just do a bet against the Leafs. Then either way I'd win.

Its the betting odds to win the division.

Vegas sets an innittial line, that will change throughout the season based on the money being bet on each.
 
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Dayjobdave

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Apr 29, 2010
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The Atlantic looks like it will be really competitive this year which makes for a fun season.

I hope the team is relatively healthy and they adapt to Berube out if the gate.
 
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Dekes For Days

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Sep 24, 2018
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I’m not so sure it’s emotions as much as it’s historical evidence the last 7-8 years that this core can’t get it done and you cannot build a cup contender when 4 core forwards consume over 50% of the cap.
Neither of those statements are true. Just because a core doesn't win through the first 8 years of their careers, it doesn't mean they can't win. They've proven an ability to play at a high level, regular season and playoffs. Over that time, we had to maneuver through an unexpected allocation, but we were still able to build contenders through strong GMing, and that percentage will naturally drop as we move forward. The suggestions being thrown around are all emotion. Attempting to purge positive things because they existed on past teams that lost is emotion. It's not about making us better. It's about making us different, no matter the cost.
As far as the first response…….saying we would have won if there wasn’t better teams in our division is crazy.
Is that what you are really saying because I think all teams would be winners if they didn’t have to play better teams.
To be the best you have to beat the best……..competition 101
When you have teams in your division putting up some of the best seasons in cap era history, it is harder to be 1st in that division, even if you are also putting up top tier seasons. That's just a simple fact. You seem to be trying to make this about playoffs, which it was never about, but for the record, most teams win the cup without beating the best.
 

Fogelhund

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Sep 15, 2007
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Boston - we keep counting them out, age related, injuries... and they just keep being good.
Florida - Stanley Cup hangover? A downgrade on paper for the roster though.
Tampa - At this stage, I think Guentzel is an upgrade over Stamkos, but we will see how it actually plays out. I don't think the team is any worse than last year up front, maybe better, but it depends on team D, and goaltending.
Ottawa - they never seem to take that step forward, but maybe actually got better in net. Of course, Boston does make goalies look great, and they end up less so when they leave.
Buffalo - Will they have a patented hot start, and then fade back again, or just suck from the beginning?
Detroit - I think they threaten for a wild card this year. Some good young players, and they'll take a step forward this year.
Montreal - nah dog... years away.

Boston, Florida, Toronto fight it out for the top three..
Tampa, Detroit and Ottawa fight for fourth, and potential wild card spots.
Buffalo fails to make playoffs, but does well enough to not be able to draft anything significant.
Montreal - should at least get another good pick out of this.
 
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SprDaVE

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Sep 20, 2008
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Boston - we keep counting them out, age related, injuries... and they just keep being good.
Florida - Stanley Cup hangover? A downgrade on paper for the roster though.
Tampa - At this stage, I think Guentzel is an upgrade over Stamkos, but we will see how it actually plays out. I don't think the team is any worse than last year up front, maybe better, but it depends on team D, and goaltending.
Ottawa - they never seem to take that step forward, but maybe actually got better in net. Of course, Boston does make goalies look great, and they end up less so when they leave.
Buffalo - Will they have a patented hot start, and then fade back again, or just suck from the beginning?
Detroit - I think they threaten for a wild card this year. Some good young players, and they'll take a step forward this year.
Montreal - nah dog... years away.

Boston, Florida, Toronto fight it out for the top three..
Tampa, Detroit and Ottawa fight for fourth, and potential wild card spots.
Buffalo fails to make playoffs, but does well enough to not be able to draft anything significant.
Montreal - should at least get another good pick out of this.

I'm not sure I see much movement in the Atlantic in terms of teams at the top and bottom. Every team sort of got better on paper for the most part, or mostly stayed the same. I don't see Detroit doing all that much better with that goaltending and defense, but I do see Ottawa likely doing better... but it's a steep hill to climb.

There are always a few surprises each year through the league. A few teams do better than expected, a few teams regress badly. Injuries play a big part in all of that. Toronto could very well drop down this year if things go bad but they could also hit a big stride and dominate. That's why we watch I guess.
 
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Racer88

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Neither of those statements are true. Just because a core doesn't win through the first 8 years of their careers, it doesn't mean they can't win. They've proven an ability to play at a high level, regular season and playoffs. Over that time, we had to maneuver through an unexpected allocation, but we were still able to build contenders through strong GMing, and that percentage will naturally drop as we move forward. The suggestions being thrown around are all emotion. Attempting to purge positive things because they existed on past teams that lost is emotion. It's not about making us better. It's about making us different, no matter the cost.

When you have teams in your division putting up some of the best seasons in cap era history, it is harder to be 1st in that division, even if you are also putting up top tier seasons. That's just a simple fact. You seem to be trying to make this about playoffs, which it was never about, but for the record, most teams win the cup without beating the best.
Apparently then our top tier seasons are simply not as good as the other teams in our divisions top tier seasons.
I see that as a failure.
When a teams is a very good regular season team but fails in the first round 7 out of 8 times in a row it is a trend and a serious indicator as to what they are made of or is the game plan to just keep throwing it against the wall waiting for something to stick
 

Dekes For Days

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Sep 24, 2018
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Apparently then our top tier seasons are simply not as good as the other teams in our divisions top tier seasons.
Our top tier seasons just happened in the same seasons that another team in our division had a top tier season. That doesn't make our seasons any less impressive.
When a teams is a very good regular season team but fails in the first round 7 out of 8 times in a row it is a trend and a serious indicator as to what they are made of or is the game plan to just keep throwing it against the wall waiting for something to stick
Every team's game plan is to build the best team they can and keep throwing it at the wall, hoping it will stick. Our past outcomes - for which you are looking at the least possible information, and mistaking correlation with causation - do not indicate the conclusions you have come to, and making us worse does not improve those outcomes moving forward.
 

Racer88

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Sep 29, 2020
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Our top tier seasons just happened in the same seasons that another team in our division had a top tier season. That doesn't make our seasons any less impressive.

Every team's game plan is to build the best team they can and keep throwing it at the wall, hoping it will stick. Our past outcomes - for which you are looking at the least possible information, and mistaking correlation with causation - do not indicate the conclusions you have come to, and making us worse does not improve those outcomes moving forward.
By the very nature that we have lost 7 of the last 8 first rounds does make it less impressive. Surely you must see this. There is no other way to interpret that record that isn’t simply making excuses
 

notDatsyuk

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Jul 20, 2018
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By the very nature that we have lost 7 of the last 8 first rounds does make it less impressive. Surely you must see this. There is no other way to interpret that record that isn’t simply making excuses
Apparently our top tier seasons were as good as any other team's, except that they weren't as good.

If that isn't a dekes special, I don't know what is. :laugh:
 
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Dekes For Days

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By the very nature that we have lost 7 of the last 8 first rounds does make it less impressive.
The history of playoff outcomes are unrelated to the regular season results we've gotten.
Apparently our top tier seasons were as good as any other team's, except that they weren't as good.
No, you're just not understanding. Another team having a great season doesn't change the quality of the season the Leafs had. If, for example, Boston had their 135 point season in 2018-2019, Tampa being 2nd in the division wouldn't make their 128 points any less impressive.
 
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Old Duffer

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Aug 30, 2024
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I can't see Leafs getting top place. I mean, it's not impossible, but unlikely.

I think the only thing we can predict is that it's going to be really really close.
The top three will be Bruins, Panthers, Leafs, with only about 8 points between them
The middle three will be Lightning, Sabres, Wings - with only about 6 points between them.
 

notDatsyuk

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Jul 20, 2018
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No, you're just not understanding. Another team having a great season doesn't change the quality of the season the Leafs had. If, for example, Boston had their 135 point season in 2018-2019, Tampa being 2nd in the division wouldn't make their 128 points any less impressive.
I understand perfectly, which is odd for your posts. We're top except that we aren't.

I can't see Leafs getting top place. I mean, it's not impossible, but unlikely.

I think the only thing we can predict is that it's going to be really really close.
The top three will be Bruins, Panthers, Leafs, with only about 8 points between them
The middle three will be Lightning, Sabres, Wings - with only about 6 points between them.
X marks the Scot?
 

TMLBlueandWhite

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Feb 2, 2023
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This is the lowest I've been on the team in the Matthews era yet.

So I'm gonna go out on a limb and say the Leafs come fourth in the Atlantic. Injuries on defense and goaltending will be the difference. The team will take another step backwards and miss the playoffs as a result.

A time limit cannot be attached to how long this team will remain swirling the bowl.

They are not one year behind schedule. Not even two or three years behind. They are INDEFINITELY behind schedule.

The flies will be hovering for the foreseeable future so long as Shanahan remains in charge.

Mark it on your calendars todays date. September 14, 2024 and the Leafs are still a steaming hot pile of stink. May as well write that every day continuing several years from now too.

Uncurling this pyramid sized cone shaped structure of shit Shanahan's built isn't gonna happen overnight.
 

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