The Sun: Atlantic Division Preview

[rumman]

I think Florida will drop a fair bit. Tampa will also drop again, but their top line will likely continue to carry them to a decent regular season. Boston should be steady, but not really improved over last season. None of Detroit, Buffalo or Ottawa are close enough yet. I think the division finishes Toronto/Boston/Tampa/Florida.

Both teams will live or die on the performance of their goaltending, I yhonk both will be fine…….

 

[darrylsittler27]

Both teams will live or die on the performance of their goaltending, I yhonk both will be fine…….

I wouldnt overlook Detroit. Yzerman could make one really good trade and they are in the playoffs. Also, Ruff back in Buffalo will help them a lot. The whole East wont be fun next year.

 

[weems]

Current odds

 

[Jojalu]

Current odds

View attachment 905893

Vegas seems to over value the Leafs every year. They always have the Leafs at short odds to win the Cup even tho they struggle to get out of the first round.

Bos too. They have had the same struggles as the Leafs over the past 8 years but with a fraction more success in the playoffs

 

[Evilhomer]

Vegas seems to over value the Leafs every year. They always have the Leafs at short odds to win the Cup even tho they struggle to get out of the first round.

Yes, but that is only because the odds follow the money. Has virtually nothing to do with a team's actual chance of winning.

 

[notbias]

Vegas seems to over value the Leafs every year. They always have the Leafs at short odds to win the Cup even tho they struggle to get out of the first round.

Bos too. They have had the same struggles as the Leafs over the past 8 years but with a fraction more success in the playoffs

Because they set odds to make money, not on who they think will win.

Setting odds is very complex I am sure so I won't try to understand it outside of that.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Vegas seems to over value the Leafs every year. They always have the Leafs at short odds to win the Cup even tho they struggle to get out of the first round.
Bos too. They have had the same struggles as the Leafs over the past 8 years but with a fraction more success in the playoffs

When actual money is on the line, logic and reason and information that's actually relevant tends to be prioritized over emotions from past losses.

 

[Racer88]

We won our division in 2021, and had some of the best President's Trophy winners through the cap era in our division in 2019, 2020, 2022, and 2023.

Wasn’t the idea of the Shanny experiment to become cup winning team. The excuse that we played against good teams but couldn’t beat them is pretty sad.
Isn’t beating good teams the way to the top?
I think we will finish 3rd yet again because we are the third best in our division

 

[Racer88]

When actual money is on the line, logic and reason and information that's actually relevant tends to be prioritized over emotions from past losses.

If that actually is the case then they need new odds makers

 

[Americanadian]

I have Ottawa and Toronto making it pretty soundly and only 3 total teams from the Atlantic making it.

As far as who makes it out of Florida/Boston/Tampa I don't feel confident in any prediction.

Ottawa was buried by bad goaltending last year. They have gone out and fixed that issue. Ullmark is 1 year separated from a Vezina and is a projected 14 point improvement over Korpisalo over 50 starts. Losing Chychrun for Jensen is an upgrade just for the fact that they need more defensive players and they need better left/right balance. Perron and Amadio are good depth adds that should help them win.

We'll see how Swayman does increasing his work load from a career high 44 GP last year to 55ish. Going from Ullmark to Korpisalo will cost them a few points (I have it projected as a 8 point difference over 27 starts). Lindholm is a good add but Debrusk is a big loss up front.

Tampa's bottom 6 is an issue as well as their back up goaltending. If they don't get an actual NHL caliber back up that will cost them the playoffs.

Florida didn't lose a ton but they did lose Stolarz who was the best goalie in the league by goals saved above expected per game. Going from Stolarz as the back up to Knight is a projected 6 point loss over 27 games. Losing Montour, their leading minute eater from the regular season (23:27 TOI) and replacing him with Schmidt (16:49 TOI) and Boqvist (18:47 TOI) will be a struggle during the regular season. Between OEL and Montour they lost 82% of their PP production from the back end last year.

I predict Toronto, Ottawa, Florida make the playoffs from the Atlantic in that order.

 

[conFABulator]

I posted on this topic on another board. It was only July 9. Not too much has changed since then and I don't think Laine changes things too much. Here's what I wrote:

Florida. They got worse. No doubt about this one, right? Replacing Montour and OEL with Schmidt and Boqvist is a hit. They lost Tarasenko and goaltending took a hit with Stolarz leaving and Bob aging. SC hangover? 110 points last year. Did they lose 10 points in the standings? Under/over 100 points.

Boston. They seemed from have improved with Lindholm and Zadorov. Though Debrusk will be missed and many believe Zadorov is a third paring guy, an improvement over Grzelcyk but how much? Ullmark got them 51 points last year, maybe Swayman plays a bit more and Korpisalo is a decent back up. It's hard to see Boston improving on 109 points. Perhaps a slight step back with some aging parts? Under/over 105 points.

Toronto. They were the second highest scoring team in the league last year and only lost Bertuzzi and his 21 goals up front. They appear stronger on D with Tanev, OEL and Haakanpaa replacing Brodie, Klingberg and Giordano. Goaltending was a disaster last year, so they look to have improved there. New coach too. Tavares is a year older but some youth injected last year could offset any decline in production. A slight improvement on last year's 102 points with an under/over of 104 points.

Tampa. This seems like a crumbling empire being held together by duct tape. Stamkos and Sergachev for Guentzel and McDonough seems like a wash at best, possibly a step down. They lost a bit of depth and their core is aging and showing it. Another slight step back seems likely from their 98 points last year. Under/over 94 points.

Detroit. They didn't make many big moves and seemed to replace the guys they lost. It's hard to say that Cam Talbot is the reason they will be better, or even Tarasenko based on the impact we saw him not have on Ottawa. Young players continuing to improve might the reason we see a slight increase on their 91 points from last year. Under/over 94 points.

Buffalo. Much like Detroit, no real big additions or losses. It's hard to imagine Aube-Kubel or Lafferty moving the dial here. Health and continued development of the young guys could bring some improvement in the points and possibly standings. Even a sizable improvement on their 84 points from last year may not move them up the standings. Under/over 90 points.

Ottawa. They could be the most improved team in the division...and still not very good. They improved with Ullmark, Jensen, Perron, and Amadio in and really only Chychrun out. If Ullmark is very good and young core players continue to develop they could see a jump from their 78 points last year...to an under/over of 88. Trending in the right direction, but not enough

Montreal. They didn't add enough and can't expect seismic gains from too many of their young guys. They have some aging vets too. No real reason to forecast improvment and with others improving they have to get points from some where; a slight regression on last year's 76 points with an under/over of 74.

So, based on the above...

Boston 105
Toronto 104
Florida 100
Detroit 94
Tampa 94
Buffalo 90
Ottawa 88
Montreal 74

...did I miss the mark on any team in particular? Why?

 

[conFABulator]

I have Ottawa and Toronto making it pretty soundly and only 3 total teams from the Atlantic making it.

As far as who makes it out of Florida/Boston/Tampa I don't feel confident in any prediction.

Ottawa was buried by bad goaltending last year. They have gone out and fixed that issue. Ullmark is 1 year separated from a Vezina and is a projected 14 point improvement over Korpisalo over 50 starts. Losing Chychrun for Jensen is an upgrade just for the fact that they need more defensive players and they need better left/right balance. Perron and Amadio are good depth adds that should help them win.

We'll see how Swayman does increasing his work load from a career high 44 GP last year to 55ish. Going from Ullmark to Korpisalo will cost them a few points (I have it projected as a 8 point difference over 27 starts). Lindholm is a good add but Debrusk is a big loss up front.

Tampa's bottom 6 is an issue as well as their back up goaltending. If they don't get an actual NHL caliber back up that will cost them the playoffs.

Florida didn't lose a ton but they did lose Stolarz who was the best goalie in the league by goals saved above expected per game. Going from Stolarz as the back up to Knight is a projected 6 point loss over 27 games. Losing Montour, their leading minute eater from the regular season (23:27 TOI) and replacing him with Schmidt (16:49 TOI) and Boqvist (18:47 TOI) will be a struggle during the regular season. Between OEL and Montour they lost 82% of their PP production from the back end last year.

I predict Toronto, Ottawa, Florida make the playoffs from the Atlantic in that order.

I posted a lengthy post at the same time you posted this. I see Ottawa a bit differently than you do. I called them the most improved team in the division, I am not hating on them. I just think a 10-point improvement is a big jump. Ullmark is a great add, but I don't think you can take his Bruins numbers and project 14 more points for Ottawa. Ottawa's defensive game is not equal to Boston's.

A ten point jump still has them missing the playoffs in my projections.

 

[Evilhomer]

I posted on this topic on another board. It was only July 9. Not too much has changed since then and I don't think Laine changes things too much. Here's what I wrote:

Florida. They got worse. No doubt about this one, right? Replacing Montour and OEL with Schmidt and Boqvist is a hit. They lost Tarasenko and goaltending took a hit with Stolarz leaving and Bob aging. SC hangover? 110 points last year. Did they lose 10 points in the standings? Under/over 100 points.

Boston. They seemed from have improved with Lindholm and Zadorov. Though Debrusk will be missed and many believe Zadorov is a third paring guy, an improvement over Grzelcyk but how much? Ullmark got them 51 points last year, maybe Swayman plays a bit more and Korpisalo is a decent back up. It's hard to see Boston improving on 109 points. Perhaps a slight step back with some aging parts? Under/over 105 points.

Toronto. They were the second highest scoring team in the league last year and only lost Bertuzzi and his 21 goals up front. They appear stronger on D with Tanev, OEL and Haakanpaa replacing Brodie, Klingberg and Giordano. Goaltending was a disaster last year, so they look to have improved there. New coach too. Tavares is a year older but some youth injected last year could offset any decline in production. A slight improvement on last year's 102 points with an under/over of 104 points.

Tampa. This seems like a crumbling empire being held together by duct tape. Stamkos and Sergachev for Guentzel and McDonough seems like a wash at best, possibly a step down. They lost a bit of depth and their core is aging and showing it. Another slight step back seems likely from their 98 points last year. Under/over 94 points.

Detroit. They didn't make many big moves and seemed to replace the guys they lost. It's hard to say that Cam Talbot is the reason they will be better, or even Tarasenko based on the impact we saw him not have on Ottawa. Young players continuing to improve might the reason we see a slight increase on their 91 points from last year. Under/over 94 points.

Buffalo. Much like Detroit, no real big additions or losses. It's hard to imagine Aube-Kubel or Lafferty moving the dial here. Health and continued development of the young guys could bring some improvement in the points and possibly standings. Even a sizable improvement on their 84 points from last year may not move them up the standings. Under/over 90 points.

Ottawa. They could be the most improved team in the division...and still not very good. They improved with Ullmark, Jensen, Perron, and Amadio in and really only Chychrun out. If Ullmark is very good and young core players continue to develop they could see a jump from their 78 points last year...to an under/over of 88. Trending in the right direction, but not enough

Montreal. They didn't add enough and can't expect seismic gains from too many of their young guys. They have some aging vets too. No real reason to forecast improvment and with others improving they have to get points from some where; a slight regression on last year's 76 points with an under/over of 74.

So, based on the above...

Boston 105
Toronto 104
Florida 100
Detroit 94
Tampa 94
Buffalo 90
Ottawa 88
Montreal 74

...did I miss the mark on any team in particular? Why?

Other than switching Toronto and Boston, and I think the spread between them will be 7 or 8 points, I agree with this.

 

[conFABulator]

Other than switching Toronto and Boston, and I think the spread between them will be 7 or 8 points, I agree with this.

You might be right, I have underestimated Boston like 4 years in a row. I need to see them fall back before I believe they will I guess.

 

[Americanadian]

I posted a lengthy post at the same time you posted this. I see Ottawa a bit differently than you do. I called them the most improved team in the division, I am not hating on them. I just think a 10-point improvement is a big jump. Ullmark is a great add, but I don't think you can take his Bruins numbers and project 14 more points for Ottawa. Ottawa's defensive game is not equal to Boston's.

A ten point jump still has them missing the playoffs in my projections.

Is 7 more wins over 50+ starts that unrealistic? Korpisalo was 21-26-4 last year. As far as the projections - I'm looking at goals saved above expected which factors in shot location. It's not a perfect indicator of defensive performance but it's much more accurate than just reading across save percentage.

As overall standings go I currently have:

That is not factoring in any mid-season trades. Cap space is based on 20 man starting lineups.

You might be right, I have underestimated Boston like 4 years in a row. I need to see them fall back before I believe they will I guess.

As far as Boston goes - the same model I am using for this season had them winning the presidents trophy in 22-23 and winning the Atlantic last year. This is the first year my model has them missing the playoffs.

 

[ThrowDemTongs]

Who's winning the division?

 

[BobClarkesfrontteeth]

Is 7 more wins over 50+ starts that unrealistic? Korpisalo was 21-26-4 last year. As far as the projections - I'm looking at goals saved above expected which factors in shot location. It's not a perfect indicator of defensive performance but it's much more accurate than just reading across save percentage.

As overall standings go I currently have:

View attachment 905941

That is not factoring in any mid-season trades. Cap space is based on 20 man starting lineups.


As far as Boston goes - the same model I am using for this season had them winning the presidents trophy in 22-23 and winning the Atlantic last year. This is the first year my model has them missing the playoffs.

I definately agree with about 90% of your projections in your model. Point totals are low for some teams but placement is pretty pretty bang on. For the Atlantic I switched Ottawa and Buffalo. I just think Buffalo will not make the critical mistakes they made last year with thier goaltending. After January they were the 3rd best defensive team in the league. Ottawa is shockingly thin on depth with all the top end talent they have while also being a very light team after you get past Brady. It is a bad combo.
For everyone thinking Boston got better with Lindhom he had his lowest point total since 2017-2018. He had 3 straight years of decline in production while seeing 1st line minutes. Yet people on HF want Tavares moved to the wing or to the 3rd line while calling Lindholm a 1st line center. Funny thing perspective.

 

[conFABulator]

Is 7 more wins over 50+ starts that unrealistic? Korpisalo was 21-26-4 last year. As far as the projections - I'm looking at goals saved above expected which factors in shot location. It's not a perfect indicator of defensive performance but it's much more accurate than just reading across save percentage.

As overall standings go I currently have:

View attachment 905941

That is not factoring in any mid-season trades. Cap space is based on 20 man starting lineups.


As far as Boston goes - the same model I am using for this season had them winning the presidents trophy in 22-23 and winning the Atlantic last year. This is the first year my model has them missing the playoffs.

Thanks,

I think you are projecting an increase of more than seven wins for Ottawa, no? I know you are saying seven in Ullmark's 40 games, which is a lot by the way, plus four or five more. I don't see that jump happening.

 

[crump]

My best Amazing Kreskin thought. One or two of the traditional Atlantic bottom feeders is going to make a move into the playoffs. Ottawa or Buffalo. It will be tight, like “2 playoff spots for 4 east conference teams tight” in the last 2 games of the regular season. One or two of those spots will be Atlantic teams pushing for playoffs. I means Some team is going to have a disastrous season with over 90 points.


Gosh I hope Woll is healthy this season.

 

[Americanadian]

Thanks,

I think you are projecting an increase of more than seven wins for Ottawa, no? I know you are saying seven in Ullmark's 40 games, which is a lot by the way, plus four or five more. I don't see that jump happening.

7 wins over 50-55 starts, not 40.

I have them jumping up 23 points. The additional jump is from internal improvement. Can Stutzle return to a 40 goal player? How many additional points is Pinto worth over a full season? Can a healthy Chabot and Norris give them a few more points?

 

[conFABulator]

7 wins over 50-55 starts, not 40.

I have them jumping up 23 points. The additional jump is from internal improvement. Can Stutzle return to a 40 goal player? How many additional points is Pinto worth over a full season? Can a healthy Chabot and Norris give them a few more points?

Sorry that was a typo. I meant 50, it is still a lot of additional wins. Everything in your post needs to break right.

Ullmark needs to healthy and very good. Stutzle needs a bounceback, Pinto needs to grow, Chabot needs to be something he hasn't been in a few years, Norris needs to be healthy and good.

Every team in the league would be better if everything broke their way. Why will it happen for Ottawa? You have them 15 points ahead of Tampa this year? It seems like a stretch.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Wasn’t the idea of the Shanny experiment to become cup winning team. The excuse that we played against good teams but couldn’t beat them is pretty sad.
Isn’t beating good teams the way to the top? I think we will finish 3rd yet again because we are the third best in our division

Everybody's objective is to become a cup winning team. Only one does it each year, and the path there can vary pretty drastically. The post isn't about that though. It's about the competition we've had to win the division. We won our division in 2021, and our 2022 season would have been President's trophy winning in 5 years of the cap era, but we had some of the best President's Trophy winners through the cap era in our division in 2019, 2020, 2022, and 2023.

If that actually is the case then they need new odds makers

The odds makers are fine. The issue is emotion on this board leading to incorrect conclusions.

 

[Americanadian]

Sorry that was a typo. I meant 50, it is still a lot of additional wins. Everything in your post needs to break right.

Ullmark needs to healthy and very good. Stutzle needs a bounceback, Pinto needs to grow, Chabot needs to be something he hasn't been in a few years, Norris needs to be healthy and good.

Every team in the league would be better if everything broke their way. Why will it happen for Ottawa? You have them 15 points ahead of Tampa this year? It seems like a stretch.

We’ll have to revisit this at the end of the season. I’m not projecting injuries for any team. It’s impossible to project.

As far as Tampa goes - they are heavily weighed downwards by having the worst goalie in the league as their back up. If they got a league average goalie they would be a 92 point team. Their bottom 6 is also starved for offense and they’ll struggle to win their minutes.

 

[Torontonian]

Seems like it's going to be status quo for the top 4 teams. Where they finish could be a little different. Ottawa/DET/Buffalo I can see sniffing around one of the two wildcard spots. The biggest problem with the 3 I mentioned is every year they go on a a big losing skid or a few 5 game losing skids and can't stop the bleeding.

The goal for Toronto should be to win the Atlantic, or the very least become 2nd and have home ice advantage. Berube focus should be getting the team to buy into a system that translates into the playoffs, and get Toronto's focus on point and stop pissing away games that cost them the division.

 

[conFABulator]

We’ll have to revisit this at the end of the season. I’m not projecting injuries for any team. It’s impossible to project.

As far as Tampa goes - they are heavily weighed downwards by having the worst goalie in the league as their back up. If they got a league average goalie they would be a 92 point team. Their bottom 6 is also starved for offense and they’ll struggle to win their minutes.

Yep, we do have to wait and see and I am interested in your projection modeling. The back up goalie factor is interesting.

This might be another reason why I don't see Ottawa making that big of a jump. A lot on Ullmark...staying healthy, playing a lot and continuing his level of play. They do not have a strong back up in Ottawa either and if he has to play 30+ games that is a factor as well.