Speculation: Atlantic Division playoff race

[Henkka]

Okay, so let's look how our playoff chances are developing.


Boston seems to be the clear Top dog in this division, they have those injury woes (McAvoy, Marchand, Grzelcyk), which are not showing anyhow. Grzelcyk is near return and also Marchand is skating. McAvoy is out for longer. But their playstyle, experience and player material is just damn deep and good. Also seems like Montgomery has given some extra spark also from coaching side. Cassidy was good too, but maybe that message started to be a bit old. Cassidy, BTW, is doing great work for Vegas as their new voice.

Detroit - We have some injuries, but are not the only one with injuries. The depth is on the limit, not too bad yet. Everybody has their own problems. So far 5 points of possible 6 is a great result.

Toronto - Not impressed of their goalies, and also they have been very weak against weak teams. Both Montreal and freaking Arizona was able to win them. Something is not right down there.

Florida. Started in a very impressive way, but then comes the Bruins game, they lose Montour for injury at warm-up and had to play with 5 defencemen. Ekblad gets injured at 2nd period. Their defence is absolute horrible, if they lose these guys for longer period, after already losing Weegar for cap purposes. Forsling, MStaal, Mahura, Gudas, Del Zotto, Bitetto, Lucas Carlsson are the guys left. Offensive corps are that deep either, when Duclair is at LTIR, and you can't even activate him because it would push them over cap. Some trade has to happen, which will weaken the team, when you think they will come stronger as Duclair will return.

Tampa Bay. No injuries but seems be struggling hard. Only top dogs are producing, depth is gone, thanks to payrises. There's no cap edge anymore and suddenly this team isn't so impressive anymore. New guys and new middle6 lines take time to gel. Also that Ian Cole investigation/suspension is hurting the defence after losing McDonagh.

Ottawa. - Had some hype after getting big names at summer, but their game hasn't developed much better. Was very meh against meh Buffalo. Those teams are at same level. There's already rumours about coach getting fired.

Buffalo. - Has been a bit better than expected, but still a poor team. No chance to playoffs, these kids are too young.

Montreal. - Two good home games, so they get some results, but abysmal at Detroit. That defence is so damn bad, they'll gonna be last in division.

In general, there's many struggling contenders, for different reasons. Interesting to see which one will get their game going. Wings should push hard for points thanks to the easy schedule, to build a gap. So then others would have to push hard later, when we can have some bad puck luck like yesterday.

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[Henkka]

Pts%
1. Boston 1.000
2. Detroit 0.833
3. Florida 0.667
----------------
4. Toronto 0.500
5. Montreal 0.500
------------------
6. Buffalo 0.500
7. Tampa Bay 0.333
8. Ottawa 0.000

 

[cjeagle]

Unlike the other playoff contenders in the division, the Redwings has room to maneuver with their salary cap considering they have the 4th lowest salary cap hit in the NHL. Buffalo has the lowest salary cap hit.

 

[Hen Kolland]

Does anyone have the Wings magic number calculated yet? Feel like we are getting close to that time of next year already.

 

[norrisnick]

Does anyone have the Wings magic number calculated yet? Feel like we are getting close to that time of next year already.

156! Secure that and they can't be caught for a divisional spot.

 

[Gniwder]

Okay, so let's look how our playoff chances are developing.


Boston seems to be the clear Top dog in this division, they have those injury woes (McAvoy, Marchand, Grzelcyk), which are not showing anyhow. Grzelcyk is near return and also Marchand is skating. McAvoy is out for longer. But their playstyle, experience and player material is just damn deep and good. Also seems like Montgomery has given some extra spark also from coaching side. Cassidy was good too, but maybe that message started to be a bit old. Cassidy, BTW, is doing great work for Vegas as their new voice.

Detroit - We have some injuries, but are not the only one with injuries. The depth is on the limit, not too bad yet. Everybody has their own problems. So far 5 points of possible 6 is a great result.

Toronto - Not impressed of their goalies, and also they have been very weak against weak teams. Both Montreal and freaking Arizona was able to win them. Something is not right down there.

Florida. Started in a very impressive way, but then comes the Bruins game, they lose Montour for injury at warm-up and had to play with 5 defencemen. Ekblad gets injured at 2nd period. Their defence is absolute horrible, if they lose these guys for longer period, after already losing Weegar for cap purposes. Forsling, MStaal, Mahura, Gudas, Del Zotto, Bitetto, Lucas Carlsson are the guys left. Offensive corps are that deep either, when Duclair is at LTIR, and you can't even activate him because it would push them over cap. Some trade has to happen, which will weaken the team, when you think they will come stronger as Duclair will return.

Tampa Bay. No injuries but seems be struggling hard. Only top dogs are producing, depth is gone, thanks to payrises. There's no cap edge anymore and suddenly this team isn't so impressive anymore. New guys and new middle6 lines take time to gel. Also that Ian Cole investigation/suspension is hurting the defence after losing McDonagh.

Ottawa. - Had some hype after getting big names at summer, but their game hasn't developed much better. Was very meh against meh Buffalo. Those teams are at same level. There's already rumours about coach getting fired.

Buffalo. - Has been a bit better than expected, but still a poor team. No chance to playoffs, these kids are too young.

Montreal. - Two good home games, so they get some results, but abysmal at Detroit. That defence is so damn bad, they'll gonna be last in division.

In general, there's many struggling contenders, for different reasons. Interesting to see which one will get their game going. Wings should push hard for points thanks to the easy schedule, to build a gap. So then others would have to push hard later, when we can have some bad puck luck like yesterday.

With all of these teams needing defensive help, we should trade Oesterle to one of them.

Normally trading within division is a bad idea, but it's Oesterle so it's basically sabotage, lol.

 

[Ezekial]

Does anyone have the Wings magic number calculated yet? Feel like we are getting close to that time of next year already.

They need to secure approximately 96 more points. So roughly 48.

 

[Gniwder]

They need to secure approximately 96 more points. So roughly 48.

Magic number is mathematical elimination. Since the Wings only have a 1 pt lead over the wildcard spots, the magic number is basically still winning out minus one game in hand over Montreal and Toronto to win the top 3 spot in the division. Appears our little Sparrow is right for once, it is 156 pts.

 

[Henkka]

Update:

Pts%
1. Detroit 0.833 (3 games)
2. Boston 0.750 (4 games)
3. Florida 0.667 (3 games)
----------------
4. Buffalo 0.667 (3 games)
5. Toronto 0.500 (4 games)
5. Montreal 0.500 (4 games)
------------------
7. Ottawa 0.333 (3 games)
8. Tampa Bay 0.250 (4 games)

 

[TheOtherOne]

156! Secure that and they can't be caught for a divisional spot.

Hmm seems achievable...

 

[Sparty]

Buffalo. - Has been a bit better than expected, but still a poor team. No chance to playoffs, these kids are too young.

I didn't agree with this yesterday and I disagree even more after last night's game. That's a good young team, and pretty deep. Peterka, Thompson, Mittelstadt, Cozens, Olofsson, Krebs, Power, Quinn. Skinner, Okposo and Tuch are some good vets to build around.

Rasmus Dahlin is a star now, paired together with Samuelsson he should receive some Norris consideration this year.

I think Comrie will surprise a lot of people this year in net.

 

[Henkka]

I didn't agree with this yesterday and I disagree even more after last night's game. That's a good young team, and pretty deep.

So you are saying Buffalo is going to playoffs?

Ok. A hot take.

 

[norrisnick]

So you are saying Buffalo is going to playoffs?

Ok. A hot take.

It's no hotter than the Wings making it.

 

[Henkka]

It's no hotter than the Wings making it.

Very much disagree.

Wings off-season was much better, and we are not a young team like Buffalo, it has no veteran core to handle strong 82-game campaign.

But as you wish, good luck for Sabres playoff run.

These hot Octobers for Buffalo have happened what, 5-years in a row?

Their time will come few seasons later, but this is not the season yet.

 

[norrisnick]

Very much disagree.

Wings off-season was much better, and we are not a young team like Buffalo, it has no veteran core to handle strong 82-game campaign.

But as you wish, good luck for Sabres playoff run.

These hot Octobers for Buffalo have happened what, 5-years in a row?

Their time will come few seasons later, but this is not the season yet.

What veteran core do we have that they don't?

 

[Sparty]

So you are saying Buffalo is going to playoffs?

Ok. A hot take.

Alright sure, I think they're a playoff team.

I don't see much differentiation in the top seven other than Tampa, to me that's the best team and until they show me otherwise I'm not gonna doubt them. Toronto is super flawed now in their back half. People want to anoint Boston on account of some early results but it's a long season, and they weren't anything special last year. I like Montgomery too, but we'll see.

Tampa

Florida/Boston/Toronto/Detroit/Buffalo/Ottawa

Montreal

Only thing I'm sure of is Tampa will make it, Montreal will miss, and I'd not be surprised by any other combination from those middle six teams.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

What veteran core do we have that they don't?

...you don't think that Perron, Kubalik, Vrana, Bertuzzi, Raymond, Soderblom aren't better than the following?

Okposo, Skinner, Quinn, Peterka, Tuch, Oloffson?

 

[norrisnick]

...you don't think that Perron, Kubalik, Vrana, Bertuzzi, Raymond, Soderblom aren't better than the following?

Okposo, Skinner, Quinn, Peterka, Tuch, Oloffson?

Are you confusing the word veteran with winger? Even then, Bertuzzi is hurt and who knows wtf is going on with Vrana right now.

 

[Sparty]

...you don't think that Perron, Kubalik, Vrana, Bertuzzi, Raymond, Soderblom aren't better than the following?

Okposo, Skinner, Quinn, Peterka, Tuch, Oloffson?

Why are rookies (Peterka and Quinn) in your veteran core? Why isn't Dahlin in there? Mittelstadt and Thompson?

EDIT: Okay I'm as confused as sparr0w is, looks like we're not having the same conversation here

 

[WingsToPick4th]

If were still in the race come march, is this the year we actually BUY at the deadline? Feels weird saying that...but we have so much cap space and could add an absolute STUD on D or FWD

 

[norrisnick]

If were still in the race come march, is this the year we actually BUY at the deadline? Feels weird saying that...but we have so much cap space and could add an absolute STUD on D or FWD

Depends entirely on what we're giving up. No way in hell do I give up a 1st or 2nd to boost a run this season. Ed, Kasper, Cossa are definite no goes. Not really sure what Cross Hanas and a 3rd gets us or if it would be worth the bother.

 

[RedHawkDown]

Buffalo will make it. They are deep at every position and Dahlin will be a Norris finalist this year.

I wouldn’t count Tampa or Toronto out this early.

Overall it will still be tough to make it and I suspect we will be fighting for the wildcard spot.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

Are you confusing the word veteran with winger? Even then, Bertuzzi is hurt and who knows wtf is going on with Vrana right now.

I'm asking you who you think is legitimately better at their positions and roles in the lineup on Buffalo than the guys on Detroit's roster?

Up and down the lineup I would take most of Detroit's roster over what Buffalo has.

1C - Detroit
1D - Detroit
Top 9 wingers - Detroit
Defensive depth - Detroit
Goaltending - Detroit by a mile

2C - if Copp plays like Copp from 2020 to 2022 then he's the easy choice over Cozens or Krebbs
3C - If Rasmussen plays even 1/3 of the season at the level he did in game 1 then I take him easily over Krebbs

Detroit will be the better team this year because it's combination of veteran talent and younger talent.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

Why are rookies (Peterka and Quinn) in your veteran core? Why isn't Dahlin in there? Mittelstadt and Thompson?

EDIT: Okay I'm as confused as sparr0w is, looks like we're not having the same conversation here

I'm judging the teams overall.

The "veteran core" of Skinner, Tuch and Okposo is equal to or less than the "veteran core" of Detroit in Larkin, Perron and Bertuzzi.

Larkin is better than Thompson
Seider, when on his game, is a flat out better player than Dahlin. Just as good offensively without being a f***ing muppet defensively.
Husso and Nedeljovic are both better than either Buffalo goalie.

Now look at the depth:
Chiarot is better than Samuelsson, Lyubushkin, Jokiharju and Bryson
Power is better than Hronek
Maatta is better than Lyubushkin, Jokiharju, Bryson
Perron is better than Skinner, Tuch, Okposo, Quinn, Peterka, Asplund
Bertuzzi is better than Skinner,Tuch, Okposo, Quinn, Peterka, Asplund
Vrana is better than Skinner, Okposo, Quinn, Peterka, Asplund
Raymond is better than Skinner, Okposo, Tuch, Quinn, Peterka, Asplund
Kubalik is better than Okposo, Quinn, Asplund and Peterka
Rasmussen is better than Mittelstadt and Krebs
Copp is better than Cozens (for now) Krebs and Mittelstadt

Line for line Detroit is the more talented team. If the coaching can bring it together this will be shown in the standings.

 

[norrisnick]

I'm asking you who you think is legitimately better at their positions and roles in the lineup on Buffalo than the guys on Detroit's roster?

Up and down the lineup I would take most of Detroit's roster over what Buffalo has.

1C - Detroit
1D - Detroit
Top 9 wingers - Detroit
Defensive depth - Detroit
Goaltending - Detroit by a mile

2C - if Copp plays like Copp from 2020 to 2022 then he's the easy choice over Cozens or Krebbs
3C - If Rasmussen plays even 1/3 of the season at the level he did in game 1 then I take him easily over Krebbs

Detroit will be the better team this year because it's combination of veteran talent and younger talent.

- We'll see who strings solid seasons together Dylan or Thompson, so far it's Larkin.
- I would love nothing more than for Seider to be better than Dahlin but that is not clear yet, and definitely not for the start of this season.
- Not if our guys aren't playing.
- So far D depth is in favor of the Wings. If Power goes big, it's a wash.
- So far Husso has had one good game and one egg and Ned had a good one. Let them go round the bend a few times before we crown them. Three games in and the Sabre duo is right there with ours (slightly ahead).
- Right now I'm not sure we don't have three 3rd line centers behind Larkin. Which will be fine once Kasper comes over, but this season, not so much.

Detroit, Ottawa, Buffalo, New Jersey (if they can get their goalies figured out), and Columbus are all in this pack that could finish anywhere between 75 and 95 points. I don't see any clear, definitive advantages we (or anyone else) has over the others of this group. None of these teams are solid enough to be resistant to slumps if the wheels come off, but all are strong enough where they could ride a hot streak or two to put up some points.