Athletic rankings of 32 teams heading into the season

[Killing Joke]

Dom is idiotic this summer. An older and slower rangers team that got worse and has an unusable backup is ranked 5 spots ahead of team that got deeper and better and was better last year as well.

 

[VanillaCoke]

not even worth one dollar a month tbh

 

[Xirik]

Poor Sabres.

 

[614 CBJ]

I see offers for a subscription to the Athletic for $1 a month

from what I have seen, that's 0.99 too much

 

[Bank Shot]

I don't really get this list. The Oilers, who have never won a game round 3 with McDavid and only added Connor Brown, have higher odds to win than Vegas, who won the Cup easily and lost 1 guy? Toronto at 5? Because this is the year?

Also Sabres at 22 and Kings at 16 seem very off, how does Winnipeg slot in at 14?

For what it is worth, Vegas scored higher on the PDO index than any playoff team since they started recording that stat.

I mean they could have completely unsustainable shooting and save percentage again these playoffs, but I wouldn't bet on it.

 

[Nikolajs Sillers]

Somehow Sabres regress? All righty then.

 

[HTFN]

As much as I'd like to shit on The Athletic (as the quality of the site has deteriorated significantly in the past 3 years), what you're alluding to is not at all the case here as these projections are purely based on Dom's model and they generally do call out some of the potential flaws from the model that contribute to some of the quirky rankings within the actual articles.

Case in point for the Devils, Hamilton gets dinged for a poor 2021-2022 season (new team that overall struggled and an injury really negatively impacted his play) along with Schmid getting lit up on that same team as a 21 year old rookie.

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At this point that basically is Skip Bayless Journalism.

 

[Captain Mountain]

For what it is worth, Vegas scored higher on the PDO index than any playoff team since they started recording that stat.

I mean they could have completely unsustainable shooting and save percentage again these playoffs, but I wouldn't bet on it.

Its the year 2023, if people don't know that there's a lot of randomness in hockey or that the team with the most points in the regular season usually doesn't win the cup then they're a lost cause.

The rankings aren't THAT unreasonable, people just look at lists and think that gaps are even when they're not.

 

[Mobiandi]

I wouldn’t put any of those teams in the top 5. Some don’t even belong in the top 10

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

From the surface, it's a decent projection. Look at it more in tiers, not as a straight ranking:

And it's based on analytics, so sure there are going to be some flaws in the model. I think it's reasonable to expect the Devils be ahead of the Rangers, considering how last season went and even looking at this pre-season. But 3v8 makes it sound more dramatic than it is. They are ranked in the same tier.

It's weird how when Seattle was crappy and missed by a mile, these Athletics "models" predicted 100 point seasons and playoff spots, but now that Seattle actually made the playoffs and had a (relatively) good season last year, their "models" have them on the outside looking in.

 

[Bank Shot]

It's weird how when Seattle was crappy and missed by a mile, these Athletics "models" predicted 100 point seasons and playoff spots, but now that Seattle actually made the playoffs and had a (relatively) good season last year, their "models" have them on the outside looking in.

Well they have them at 90 points so they have them close.

Maybe they downgraded Grubauer after two bad seasons in a row.

 

[Cas]

Sharks are too high.

 

[Rants Mulliniks]

I don't really get this list. The Oilers, who have never won a game round 3 with McDavid and only added Connor Brown, have higher odds to win than Vegas, who won the Cup easily and lost 1 guy? Toronto at 5? Because this is the year?

Also Sabres at 22 and Kings at 16 seem very off, how does Winnipeg slot in at 14?

If it’s season finish, is there any team more accurately placed than Toronto? They have kind of consistently shown to be right in that ballpark over and over and over again. Not like a bunch of other teams with wild swings.

 

[KirkAlbuquerque]

3. Rangers
8. Devils

Lol what? Rangers are even slower than last year, when the devils skated them into the ground in the playoffs.

You should call the Athletic to complain

 

[tarheelhockey]

I don’t see what all the complaining is about.

 

[iCanada]

I don’t see what all the complaining is about.

Yeah idk seems pretty accurate.

 

[HabsWhiteKnightLOL]

Who made that list? Chatgpt?

My god this is awful.

 

[Three On Zero]

From the top down

Edmonton - Too high (should be where Toronto is)
Rangers - Too high (Should be where Vegas is)
Leafs - Too high (Should be where Jersey is)
Knights - Too low (Should be where Edmonton is)
Devils - Too low (Should be where New York is)
Vancouver - Too high (Should be where Seattle is)
Seattle - Too low (Should be where Vancouver is)

 

[VivaLasVegas]

You should call the Athletic to complain

And include $20 for a better quality OUIJA board.

 

[Three On Zero]

And include $20 for a better quality OUIJA board.

I think this list was more like those videos where they lay out cards and let the cat pounce on the one it chooses. Repeated until only the last card is left

 

[Saga of the Elk]

 

[Golden_Jet]

What are you talking about? Leafs are at 5

At one time flames were at 5 and 13

 

[Machinehead]

The Rangers are 20 spots too high

 

[hawksrule]

Habs worse than Chicago? I’d be surprised.

 

[Rants Mulliniks]

From the top down

Edmonton - Too high (should be where Toronto is)
Rangers - Too high (Should be where Vegas is)
Leafs - Too high (Should be where Jersey is)
Knights - Too low (Should be where Edmonton is)
Devils - Too low (Should be where New York is)
Vancouver - Too high (Should be where Seattle is)
Seattle - Too low (Should be where Vancouver is)

Over the past half decade, there are 5 teams that separated from the pack. Toronto is one of them. Boston and TB likely on the downswing from that group but the others likely still good bets.