ATD 2013 Lineup Advice Thread

[TheDevilMadeMe]

As an offensive player, I'd take Gare over Walker without a second thought. At even strength, Gare mostly played with other checkers. Walker played with vastly superior offensive players who outscored him greatly. It's logical to assume that they helped drag his point totals to the modest levels that they reached.

Gare did spend significant time with Perrault in 2 of his best 3 seasons

 

[Dreakmur]

As an offensive player, I'd take Gare over Walker without a second thought. At even strength, Gare mostly played with other checkers. Walker played with vastly superior offensive players who outscored him greatly. It's logical to assume that they helped drag his point totals to the modest levels that they reached.

Yeah maybe...

There were a few seasons that Walker played with guys who outscored him by a lot, but it wasn't actually very often. Walker actually led his teams in scoring a few times, and was second a few more.

Based on the quotes I was able to dig up over the last few days, I'm not sure Walker wasn't actually a good cog in the offense. He was well known as an excellent playmaker.

 

[Hawkey Town 18]

My 2nd line...

Paul Thompson - Frank Fredrickson - Bob Nevin


I would be interested to hear people's thoughts on this as a 2-way line. The way I see it both Thompson and Fredrickson are at least small pluses defensively with Nevin being a good defensive player. Does anyone have issues with Nevin's offensive abilities? According to his bio he was top 16 in ES pts 4x, but I'm wondering if some people will need me to make more of a case?

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

My 2nd line...

Paul Thompson - Frank Fredrickson - Bob Nevin


I would be interested to hear people's thoughts on this as a 2-way line. The way I see it both Thompson and Fredrickson are at least small pluses defensively with Nevin being a good defensive player. Does anyone have issues with Nevin's offensive abilities? According to his bio he was top 16 in ES pts 4x, but I'm wondering if some people will need me to make more of a case?

At first glance, it seems well-rounded but not all that explosive.

4 times top 16 in ES points is such a random stat - I'd want to know more about Nevin's offense ideally. If you're using him as a checker, that tells me he can chip in offensively, but I have no idea where that fits in among other scorers.

I skimmed the Fredrickson bio and didn't see anything in it about his defense, but I didn't read it that thoroughly.

 

[Hawkey Town 18]

I skimmed the Fredrickson bio and didn't see anything in it about his defense, but I didn't read it that thoroughly.

There's not a ton of quotes, which is why I only called him a small plus, but here's a couple...

From the 1925 Cup Finals...

"Frank Fredrickson was an accomplished defensive forward who, in a Stanley Cup finals of 1924-25, drew the role of checking the great Morenz. He did, too, and the Victoria Cougars triumphed 3 games to 1."


Regina Morning Leader - March 27, 1923

"Fredrickson, however, was a marked man all night and in spite of the fact that he was watched closely and given little chance to bore through he managed to notch two counters and was far more effective in the art of back-checking than his elusive rival."

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

There's not a ton of quotes, which is why I only called him a small plus, but here's some...

From the 1925 Cup Finals...
"Frank Fredrickson was an accomplished defensive forward who, in a Stanley Cup finals of 1924-25, drew the role of checking the great Morenz. He did, too, and the Victoria Cougars triumphed 3 games to 1."

Regina Morning Leader - March 27, 1923
"Fredrickson, however, was a marked man all night and in spite of the fact that he was watched closely and given little chance to bore through he managed to notch two counters and was far more effective in the art of back-checking than his elusive rival."

OH right, forgot he did a good job against a young Morenz head to head. Yeah, he's definitely something of a plus.

 

[Hawkey Town 18]

I'm going to try to get more info on Nevin, but I'd like to hear what you think of this...

We only have ES points post-expansion, so from age 29 on here are Nevin's adjusted ES points...

60, 55, 41, 40, 39, 38, 33, 31, 15


Here are Shane Doan's...

57, 57, 55, 52, 50, 49, 48, 47, 47, 42, 41, 31


Considering this doesn't include 7 full seasons for Nevin from ages 22-28, including his 2 best years from a total points perspective do you think there's a case for him?


EDIT: Nevin's 60 was the first season of expansion

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

I'm going to try to get more info on Nevin, but I'd like to hear what you think of this...

We only have ES points post-expansion, so from age 29 on here are Nevin's adjusted ES points...

60, 55, 41, 40, 39, 38, 33, 31, 15


Here are Shane Doan's...

57, 57, 55, 52, 50, 49, 48, 47, 47, 42, 41, 31


Considering this doesn't include 7 full seasons for Nevin from ages 22-28, including his 2 best years from a total points perspective do you think there's a case for him?

Maybe?

There is a spreadsheet out there that has even strength data back to 1952-53, but it's not adjusted for era:

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showpost.php?p=44881715&postcount=105

 

[Hawkey Town 18]

Maybe?

There is a spreadsheet out there that has even strength data back to 1952-53, but it's not adjusted for era:

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showpost.php?p=44881715&postcount=105

Ha, totally forgot about that one...I even had it already!

Well here's what all the data looks like. If someone can tell me more about how the adjusted ES pts were calculated I could try to do it for the 7 years we don't have it.

Year | ESP | $ESP
1960-61 | 46 |
1961-62 | 33 |
1962-63 | 28 |
1963-64 | 19 |
1964-65 | 18 |
1965-66 | 42 |
1966-67 | 35 |
1967-68 | 48 | 60
1968-69 | 37 | 40
1969-70 | 25 | 33
1970-71 | 37 | 41
1971-72 | 28 | 31
1972-73 | 17 | 15
1973-74 | 38 | 39
1974-75 | 55 | 55
1975-76 | 33 | 38

 

[overpass]

Ha, totally forgot about that one...I even had it already!

Well here's what all the data looks like. If someone can tell me more about how the adjusted ES pts were calculated I could try to do it for the 7 years we don't have it.

Year | ESP | $ESP
1960-61 | 46 |
1961-62 | 33 |
1962-63 | 28 |
1963-64 | 19 |
1964-65 | 18 |
1965-66 | 42 |
1966-67 | 35 |
1967-68 | 48 | 60
1968-69 | 37 | 40
1969-70 | 25 | 33
1970-71 | 37 | 41
1971-72 | 28 | 31
1972-73 | 17 | 15
1973-74 | 38 | 39
1974-75 | 55 | 55
1975-76 | 33 | 38

Adjusted ES points were calculated in the following way:

$ESP = ESP*200/LgESG

Where LgESG is the average number of ES goals by teams in that season.

You should be able to find LgESG with the data in that file by taking the sum of all ESG in a given season and dividing by the number of teams in the league.

 

[Hawkey Town 18]

Adjusted ES points were calculated in the following way:

$ESP = ESP*200/LgESG

Where LgESG is the average number of ES goals by teams in that season.

You should be able to find LgESG with the data in that file by taking the sum of all ESG in a given season and dividing by the number of teams in the league.

Ok, here's the complete table using the above formula

Year | ESP | $ESP
1960-61 | 46 | 56
1961-62 | 33 | 40
1962-63 | 28 | 34
1963-64 | 19 | 25
1964-65 | 18 | 25
1965-66 | 42 | 52
1966-67 | 35 | 43
1967-68 | 48 | 60
1968-69 | 37 | 40
1969-70 | 25 | 33
1970-71 | 37 | 41
1971-72 | 28 | 31
1972-73 | 17 | 15
1973-74 | 38 | 39
1974-75 | 55 | 55
1975-76 | 33 | 38

Adjusted ES Pts Comparison
Bob Nevin: 60, 56, 55, 52, 43, 41, 40, 40, 39, 38, 34, 33, 31, 25, 25, 15
Shane Doan: 57, 57, 55, 52, 50, 49, 48, 47, 47, 42, 41, 31
Owen Nolan: 60, 52, 52, 49, 47, 46, 43, 41, 41, 40, 38, 35, 35, 33, 33, 32, 31, 28, 13
Rick Tocchet: 63, 58, 57, 53, 51, 47, 44, 44, 42, 42, 40, 39, 35, 35, 32, 30, 30, 29, 27, 24, 23, 21

Nevin isn't too far behind these guys, and right there with them when you look at best 4 seasons. Considering that for part of his career he was on a checking line with linemates not near as offensively gifted as Fredrickson and Thompson, I think he's fine in the role I have him in...the defensive conscience of a two-way 2nd line. What do others think?

 

[Sturminator]

Adjusted ES Pts Comparison
Bob Nevin: 60, 56, 55, 52, 43, 41, 40, 40, 39, 38, 34, 33, 31, 25, 25, 15
Shane Doan: 57, 57, 55, 52, 50, 49, 48, 47, 47, 42, 41, 31
Owen Nolan: 60, 52, 52, 49, 47, 46, 43, 41, 41, 40, 38, 35, 35, 33, 33, 32, 31, 28, 13
Rick Tocchet: 63, 58, 57, 53, 51, 47, 44, 44, 42, 42, 40, 39, 35, 35, 32, 30, 30, 29, 27, 24, 23, 21

Nevin isn't too far behind these guys, and right there with them when you look at best 4 seasons. Considering that for part of his career he was on a checking line with linemates not near as offensively gifted as Fredrickson and Thompson, I think he's fine in the role I have him in...the defensive conscience of a two-way 2nd line. What do others think?

Yeah, I think Nevin is fine in that role. He's not really a classic glue guy because he wasn't very physical, but he'll give you more defense than those other guys, so it kind of evens out. Nevin's voting results are also surprisingly good for a player of his ATD stature:

Hart: 10, 11
AST: 3 (RW), 5 (RW), 6 (RW)

Nevin can definitely be a good contributor on a two-way scoringline. That was essentially his role in Toronto on a line with Mahovlich and Kelly, just as it was in New York on the Marshall - Goyette - Nevin line (the Old Smoothies). I don't think he ever played on a "pure checkingline" in the modern sense, in part because he was too good offensively for coaches to want him in that role, and in part because pure checking units didn't really even come into existence until the end of Nevin's career. With that in mind, I would say that Nevin definitely had more help in even-strength scoring than at least the two Pacific Division guys you list above.

 

[overpass]

I think he's fine in the role I have him in...the defensive conscience of a two-way 2nd line. What do others think?

Yeah, I think Nevin is fine there. Thompson and Fredrickson were solid defensively too so the line should be very capable in both ends.

Just a note on adjusted scoring for the Original 6 - keep in mind that it got a lot easier to score adjusted points when the league size doubled, for adjustment methods that work from the league average as a baseline. In Nevin's case that may be offset by the fact that he played with strong linemates for part of that time.

 

[Johnny Engine]

Ok, just to get my head in the right place on this, how bad, on a scale of 1 to '74 Capitals, is this 2nd powerplay unit?

Dick Duff - Jack Adams - Trevor Linden
Eduard Ivanov - Si Griffis

I haven't really built my special teams yet and I don't plan to use the above as a unit at all, but it basically represents the worst case scenario for my 2nd pp unit, and I could use a good old-fashioned savaging from my fellow GMs before I go forward picking role players.

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

Ok, just to get my head in the right place on this, how bad, on a scale of 1 to '74 Capitals, is this 2nd powerplay unit?

Dick Duff - Jack Adams - Trevor Linden
Eduard Ivanov - Si Griffis

I haven't really built my special teams yet and I don't plan to use the above as a unit at all, but it basically represents the worst case scenario for my 2nd pp unit, and I could use a good old-fashioned savaging from my fellow GMs before I go forward picking role players.

It's pretty weak - Dick Duff and Trevor Linden are not particularly good offensive players in an all-time context. Adams is decent for a second unit, but not really good enough to carry the forwards by himself, I don't think. Griffis is really good on the point though. Ivanov? I have a hard to evaluating him, but I guess he's okay.

 

[Sturminator]

Ok, just to get my head in the right place on this, how bad, on a scale of 1 to '74 Capitals, is this 2nd powerplay unit?

Dick Duff - Jack Adams - Trevor Linden
Eduard Ivanov - Si Griffis

I haven't really built my special teams yet and I don't plan to use the above as a unit at all, but it basically represents the worst case scenario for my 2nd pp unit, and I could use a good old-fashioned savaging from my fellow GMs before I go forward picking role players.

It's early-80's Devils bad.

 

[BraveCanadian]

Sorry Johnny I have to agree.

Pretty weak wingers (especially) on that powerplay unit.

 

[monster_bertuzzi]

If Linden cracks your second unit PP then it must be pretty bad.

 

[Johnny Engine]

Alright, I think I've got what I need here.
To reiterate, that's not a PP unit I would ever let on ATD ice. It's my 5th-7th most dangerous forwards and the leftover defensemen, stuck together with no rhyme or reason. I did think it might be useful for you guys to paint a vivid picture of how dysfunctional it would be exactly, and you delivered! Thanks!

PS: I'd be prepared to defend Linden as the net guy on my B-team if it came down to it. He's 6'4" and a third of his career goals came on the PP. Dick Duff will be nailed to the bench.

 

[Hawkey Town 18]

What is an appropriate amount of time per power-play to play Phil Housley who will be a bottom pairing defenseman at even strengh that also gets inserted in specific offensive situations (ie: an offensive zone draw after an icing against tired opponents)? The answer is as much as I can, but what is realistic? 1:30/2:00?

 

[BraveCanadian]

What is an appropriate amount of time per power-play to play Phil Housley who will be a bottom pairing defenseman at even strengh that also gets inserted in specific offensive situations (ie: an offensive zone draw after an icing against tired opponents)? The answer is as much as I can, but what is realistic? 1:30/2:00?

He was an outstanding skater so I would assume that if anyone else in the draft can play most of a powerplay without getting caught any more than normal -- he could.

Even tired he is going to skate better than most players just like a Coffey/Orr etc.

My two cents anyways.

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

What is an appropriate amount of time per power-play to play Phil Housley who will be a bottom pairing defenseman at even strengh that also gets inserted in specific offensive situations (ie: an offensive zone draw after an icing against tired opponents)? The answer is as much as I can, but what is realistic? 1:30/2:00?

1:20-1:30 seems pretty normal for first unit point men. If Housley is playing bottom pairing and not playing the PK, I can honestly see him playing the whole PP sometimes, but on average, he can probably handle 1:40 if that's how you want to use him.

NJ just went to the finals playing Kovalchuk on the point for basically the full 2 minutes of basically every powerplay

It's become ATD convention to assume teams will spend 7 minutes per game on the PP - I'm planning on playing Paul Coffey for 6 of those (with almost no PK time); does anyone have a problem with that? Kovalchuk will see slightly less time than Coffey because he'll be moved off the point in the third period if my team has the lead.

 

[BraveCanadian]

It's become ATD convention to assume teams will spend 7 minutes per game on the PP - I'm planning on playing Paul Coffey for 6 of those (with almost no PK time); does anyone have a problem with that? Kovalchuk will see slightly less because he'll be moved off the point in the third period if my team has the lead.

Paul Coffey coasts as fast as many players skate.

He'll be fine.

 

[monster_bertuzzi]

I'm worried about the toughness of my top 2 scoring lines:

Mahovlich-Keats-Maltsev
Damphousse-Barry-Darragh

There is a big body presence on each line, but not a lot of pugnation. My question is, how valued is toughness around here? Should I load up on it 4th line and bottom pair D?

 

[Dreakmur]

I'm worried about the toughness of my top 2 scoring lines:

Mahovlich-Keats-Maltsev
Damphousse-Barry-Darragh

There is a big body presence on each line, but not a lot of pugnation. My question is, how valued is toughness around here? Should I load up on it 4th line and bottom pair D?

Both Keats and Barry are pretty tough.