At 6th Overall the Red Wings Take Filip Zadina

[ArGarBarGar]

Can't we just give it a minute with regards to the Cholo/Chych argument?

 

[lhsgolf19]

I will take a Cholowski & Hronek over Chychrun every day of the week

 

[SirloinUB]

Can't we just give it a minute with regards to the Cholo/Chych argument?

It’s the new Hossa vs Franzen.

 

[Voodoo Glow Skulls]

I clicked on a Zadina thread, right?

 

[Frk It]

I was and still am a believer in Chychrun, but the emergence of Hronek and improvements from Cholowski make me feel OK with that whole thing. I do think some people’s scouting reports on Chychrun are way off, but guess that is neither here nor there.

Hronek is the guy that I think will make us not worry about it in the long run. I feel good about him being a productive pro.

Should have a nice little Czech combo on the PP in the future with Zadina and Hronek making plays.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

100+ games as a teenager is a lot different than sporadic use among years.

As of this point, Cholowski is at a point where him playing 100 NHL games isnt even a given. I do believe he will of course, but more promising players have failed to.

Ryan Sproul, for instance, was OHL defenseman of the year in his D+2, and has a very real chance of never hitting the 100 game mark if he doesn't solidify himself this year. If they were in the same draft with the same result at the conclusion of their D+2 seasons, Sproul would be picked by the vast majority of people as the more promising prospect.

Look, I get you’re high on him, that is your right, and from a Wings fan perspective, I personally hope you are right. That doesn’t mean it’s looking likely though. We don’t know how Chychurn would have done in the WHL last year, but I assume most neutral fans think he’d do better. Make a one for one trade thread and see what happens

Sproul always had the "can't play a lick of defense" gene though. All that shows is that the vast majority of people know absolutely nothing about what makes an NHL defenseman successful. Sproul can't solidify himself because he can't teach himself basic defensive positioning or know when to pinch or not. He wasn't good enough a skater/player to do a Keith Yandle or Mike Green where you take the offense with the defensive lapses.

But the thing is not Cholowski vs Chychrun. It's Cholowski and Hronek vs Chychrun.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

I was and still am a believer in Chychrun, but the emergence of Hronek and improvements from Cholowski make me feel OK with that whole thing. I do think some people’s scouting reports on Chychrun are way off, but guess that is neither here nor there.

Hronek is the guy that I think will make us not worry about it in the long run. I feel good about him being a productive pro.

Should have a nice little Czech combo on the PP in the future with Zadina and Hronek making plays.

We need another bad ass Swede. I want a redux of the Z and Hudler commercial.

Check! (Czech!)

*shakes fist*
Svede!!!

 

[Hatter of the Beach]

But the thing is not Cholowski vs Chychrun. It's Cholowski and Hronek vs Chychrun.

But the thing is, in context of what we were communicating, it really is Cholowski vs Chychurn. We weren’t talking about the trade, we were talking about invidual potential and liklihood of developnent.

As for your first paragraph, your post reaks of survivor bias and revising history in hindsight. Was Sproul known for his defense? No, but there are many things Cholowski struggles with too, they’re just not quantifiable yet in the NHL because he still isn’t good enough to be up there. You can parade the “everyone is dumb but me” schtick and claim people can’t judge prospects accurately, but if so, the same could apply to Cholowski. Will it? I have no idea, but that doesn’t mean your post isn’t built on confirmation bias.

Cholowski really hasn’t done much to solidify himself as a top prospect as much as Wings fans try to make him out to have. That’s not to say he’s a bust, it’s just there isn’t much to indicate he will be anything special. Certainly not as much as Sproul, relative to when they were the same age. Sproul aside, better prospects than him bust every year

 

[lomekian]

Sproul was better at putting up points in junior for sure, but his +/- in his draft plus 2 season was 29 less than Cholowski on a seriously good team and with a top end defence partner.

Sproul's point scoring in Junior was always impressive, but compared to other top D prospects his +/- wasn't great. PPG wise he was as good as Subban in his 2 post draft years, but was 50 less in terms of +/-.

Ultimately though, any D men picked outside the top handful are hard to accurately project, and Sproul proves this perfectly. In terms of point scoring, the only D-men putting up points in the NHL now who spent 2 years in junior with a better draft +2 season in terms of points are Dougie Hamilton and Ryan Ellis. Admittedly, the cream of the crop didn't spend 2 years in Junior after being drafted on the whole, but Sproul's point totals suggested a player who might bring enough on offence to make up for defensive issues, particularly given his good skating and 6"4 frame.

There was a point in 2013 where our defensive prospects looked positive despite the departure of Lid, Rafalski etc. Sproul was OHL d-man of the year having been the top scoring Dman. Oullet was twice in QMJHL's first all-star team, and had come off the back of a brilliant playoffs. Nedomlel had shown promise as a tough guy who had made decent strides. Backman had cemented himself as point scoring top line d-man in the SEL and was about to top the league in +/-. Marchenko was coming over after making big strides in Russia. Adam Almquist had shown real promise in his first AHL season (and was about to put up 50+ points), though skating and size were a concern. Kindl had just had by far the best stint of his career in the NHL, actually looking defensively solid, and briefly playing with cojones, looking like a possible 30+ point d-man. Smith had looked decent in 2 NHL stints and had proved himself fairly dominant at AHL level. AND Nick Jensen had just won WCHA's Defensive Player of the Year.

Also at this stage Kronwall was still a genuine top pair Dman, Ericsson hadn't hit his injury problems and looked a solid top 4 guy, and Dekeyser had just joined the team and was looking a lock for the top 4.

I don't think anyone can honestly say that they predicted our D being as bad as it is now, particularly if people were told we'd have added Trevor Daley and Mike Green. This is one of the reasons I get defensive about hypercriticism of the Wings attempts to negotiate the post Lidstrom era. To have so many promising D-men under the age of 24, and now only have one who looks a genuine NHL-er, really is astonishing. Should we have used more top picks on D? Yes! But I don't think anyone could have picked that entire crop as failing.

 

[Henkka]

There was a point in 2013 where our defensive prospects looked positive despite the departure of Lid, Rafalski etc. Sproul was OHL d-man of the year having been the top scoring Dman. Oullet was twice in QMJHL's first all-star team, and had come off the back of a brilliant playoffs. Nedomlel had shown promise as a tough guy who had made decent strides. Backman had cemented himself as point scoring top line d-man in the SEL and was about to top the league in +/-. Marchenko was coming over after making big strides in Russia. Adam Almquist had shown real promise in his first AHL season (and was about to put up 50+ points), though skating and size were a concern. Kindl had just had by far the best stint of his career in the NHL, actually looking defensively solid, and briefly playing with cojones, looking like a possible 30+ point d-man. Smith had looked decent in 2 NHL stints and had proved himself fairly dominant at AHL level. AND Nick Jensen had just won WCHA's Defensive Player of the Year.

To have so many promising D-men under the age of 24, and now only have one who looks a genuine NHL-er, really is astonishing. Should we have used more top picks on D? Yes! But I don't think anyone could have picked that entire crop as failing.

Those guys were "defencemen of the year" from the weakest draft class (2011) possibly since the last lockout.

Quality of competition on that year was easy at junior level, and the big jump to men's level was just too much.

Every draft class is not equal, time to learn that.

 

[Frk It]

Those guys were "defencemen of the year" from the weakest draft class (2011) possibly since the last lockout.

Quality of competition on that year was easy at junior level, and the big jump to men's level was just too much.

Every draft class is not equal, time to learn that.

You’re using a lot of hindsight here. Sproul looked promising and he had a great set of tools. That one honestly is a head scratcher for me, maybe more than anyone else.

Sproul always had the "can't play a lick of defense" gene though. All that shows is that the vast majority of people know absolutely nothing about what makes an NHL defenseman successful. Sproul can't solidify himself because he can't teach himself basic defensive positioning or know when to pinch or not.

For the record guys like Subban and Letang were also a real mess defensively at the Junior level. They just found a way to clean it up. I really thought with Sproul’s physical tools he would figure it out how to minimize it, I was always a big fan of him and that pick.

 

[raymond23]

Still can't believe not one of those defenseman proved to be worth anything. What the hell happened in Grand Rapids....

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

You’re using a lot of hindsight here. Sproul looked promising and he had a great set of tools. That one honestly is a head scratcher for me, maybe more than anyone else.



For the record guys like Subban and Letang were also a real mess defensively at the Junior level. They just found a way to clean it up. I really thought with Sproul’s physical tools he would figure it out how to minimize it, I was always a big fan of him and that pick.

I think Smith's failure to become a top 4 d-man and long-term solution was the most stunning, at least it was for me.

But again I became deeply concerned with Sproul when I watched him at the AHL level in terms of his defensive awareness.

One of the beauties of drafting higher is while it is never easy a guy like Zadina will absolutely make it, they are a little easier to project at the top in my opinion. I think are next few picks are likely not to have a whole lot of debate around them. You can find grenades in the top 10, but I am not sure Holland and our scouts are likely to, I like the first round picks they have been throwing down for a while now.

 

[Frk It]

I think Smith's failure to become a top 4 d-man and long-term solution was the most stunning, at least it was for me.

But again I became deeply concerned with Sproul when I watched him at the AHL level in terms of his defensive awareness.

One of the beauties of drafting higher is while it is never easy a guy like Zadina will absolutely make it, they are a little easier to project at the top in my opinion. I think are next few picks are likely not to have a whole lot of debate around them. You can find grenades in the top 10, but I am not sure Holland and our scouts are likely to, I like the first round picks they have been throwing down for a while now.

Yeah, I’ll always remember how good Smith looked in his first call-up in the league. Man he was dynamite at leading rushes and making plays.

Smith, Sproul, and Jurco were all guys I was big on. All had size and some good tools. I still am surprised 1 of those 3 didn’t become something more than they did.

 

[lilidk]

I clicked on a Zadina thread, right?

should be Zadina vs Hughes

 

[Henkka]

Smith, Sproul, and Jurco were all guys I was big on. All had size and some good tools. I still am surprised 1 of those 3 didn’t become something more than they did.

Nobody had good hockey IQ.

Imo, that's everything nowadays.

Too bad Jim Nill couldn't find it anywhere, until it was a Håkan pick.

 

[InjuredChoker]

should be Zadina vs Hughes

nah, zadina vs bouchard.

 

[Frk It]

Nobody had good hockey IQ.

Imo, that's everything nowadays.

Too bad Jim Nill couldn't find it anywhere, until it was a Håkan pick.

Yeah, this is why I was so big on Dobson for the record. But it was the issue for Sproul and Smith.

I still think Jurco was bad luck. Those back injuries eally seemed to de-rail his development. Apparently the Kings are already saying Vilardi has back issues he will have to “live with”. I would bet that is why we passed on him (not his skating like some think).

 

[Henkka]

Yeah, this is why I was so big on Dobson for the record. But it was the issue for Sproul and Smith.

I still think Jurco was bad luck. Those back injuries eally seemed to de-rail his development. Apparently the Kings are already saying Vilardi has back issues he will have to “live with”. I would bet that is why we passed on him (not his skating like some think).

Yeah. Agree with Jurco. That back injury changed the faith, just when he started looking somewhat decent.

Vilardi-case is also interesting. 3rd best player on many ranks, but still 8 organizations passed him. He had that injury, had a great season in OHL again, and is injured again. He had to skip that WJSS.

Now I wonder if all organizations also knew something about Jakob Chychrun, because he falled what, also 10 positions on the draft rank? I remember year before the draft he was 2nd overall, and at draft time somewhere at 5-7th overall. Then dropped 10 positions more.

And Chychrun has now had 2 knee surgeries since the draft.

Two biggest 1st round fallers, and multiple injury concerns for both after the draft. Coincidence?

What comes to Red Wings, and if you think what kind of injuries Zetterberg or Kronwall are having, would you like to draft a guy with back injury or knee injuries...

Hope that's not the same falling reason for Veleno.

 

[Shaman464]

Sproul was better at putting up points in junior for sure, but his +/- in his draft plus 2 season was 29 less than Cholowski on a seriously good team and with a top end defence partner.

Sproul's point scoring in Junior was always impressive, but compared to other top D prospects his +/- wasn't great. PPG wise he was as good as Subban in his 2 post draft years, but was 50 less in terms of +/-.

Ultimately though, any D men picked outside the top handful are hard to accurately project, and Sproul proves this perfectly. In terms of point scoring, the only D-men putting up points in the NHL now who spent 2 years in junior with a better draft +2 season in terms of points are Dougie Hamilton and Ryan Ellis. Admittedly, the cream of the crop didn't spend 2 years in Junior after being drafted on the whole, but Sproul's point totals suggested a player who might bring enough on offence to make up for defensive issues, particularly given his good skating and 6"4 frame.

There was a point in 2013 where our defensive prospects looked positive despite the departure of Lid, Rafalski etc. Sproul was OHL d-man of the year having been the top scoring Dman. Oullet was twice in QMJHL's first all-star team, and had come off the back of a brilliant playoffs. Nedomlel had shown promise as a tough guy who had made decent strides. Backman had cemented himself as point scoring top line d-man in the SEL and was about to top the league in +/-. Marchenko was coming over after making big strides in Russia. Adam Almquist had shown real promise in his first AHL season (and was about to put up 50+ points), though skating and size were a concern. Kindl had just had by far the best stint of his career in the NHL, actually looking defensively solid, and briefly playing with cojones, looking like a possible 30+ point d-man. Smith had looked decent in 2 NHL stints and had proved himself fairly dominant at AHL level. AND Nick Jensen had just won WCHA's Defensive Player of the Year.

Also at this stage Kronwall was still a genuine top pair Dman, Ericsson hadn't hit his injury problems and looked a solid top 4 guy, and Dekeyser had just joined the team and was looking a lock for the top 4.

I don't think anyone can honestly say that they predicted our D being as bad as it is now, particularly if people were told we'd have added Trevor Daley and Mike Green. This is one of the reasons I get defensive about hypercriticism of the Wings attempts to negotiate the post Lidstrom era. To have so many promising D-men under the age of 24, and now only have one who looks a genuine NHL-er, really is astonishing. Should we have used more top picks on D? Yes! But I don't think anyone could have picked that entire crop as failing.

Ah, I think a lot of us knew that there was a huge talent problem in Detroit's system. Also, citing +/- as an indicator of anything but luck is a poor idea. You can play beautifully and have one leg over the board and get scored on and be a minus player, or you could be the worst fourth liner and jump on the ice as a goal is scored and be a plus player. There is way too much luck and happenstance to use that as a explanatory stat. Kind of like RBIs in baseball.

 

[Frk It]

Very exited to see how he looks after a full summer in the gym. I think he has a coming out party this year.