Marner has paced for over 90+ points for 5 straight years, and last year for ~110.
Tkachuk this year is 36th in scoring, outside top 40 in ppg. Last season, 83rd in ppg, 59th in scoring.
Again, going back years is totally useless and irrelevant, unless you think Tkachuk is having an outlier season? This is the 1st season where Tkachuk is producing near Marner's level. Marner has 9 more pts but has played 2 more games. The point of this poll is obviously GOING FORWARD and taking contracts in consideration
It's not about breaking out later or earlier, it's about Tkachuk not breaking out to anywhere close to the level of Marner yet. Marner is a significantly better player.
Marner is a significantly better player? This season? By which metrics? PK? Ok great, Mathieu Joseph usually has Elite PK metrics. Everyone knows Tkachuk brings a lot more than points too...
Marner
On-Ice ES : 3.18 xGF/60 (89th amongst forwards), 2.79 xGA/60 (181st), 53.22 xGF% (104th)
On-Ice PP : 11.0 xGF/60 (13th)
Individual ES : 0.85 Goals/60 (137th), 1.62 Assists/60 (43th)
Individual PP : 1.83 Goals/60 (91st), 5.80 Assists/60 (6th)
Tkachuk
On-Ice ES : 4.12 xGF/60 (3rd best amongst forwards), 3.02 xGA/60 (248th), 57.73 xGF% (25th)
On-Ice PP : 10.7 xGF/60 (21st)
Individual ES : 1.26 Goals/60 (44th), 1.35 Assists/60 (110th)
Individual PP : 1.43 Goals/60 (117th), 4.28 Assists/60 (35th)
*ES : minimum 300 mins
**PP : minimum 100 mins
So he's more productive on the PP? Of course, he's one of the best playmakers in the league and plays with Matthews, Tavares, Nylander and Rielly. Tkachuk also play with good players who are more productive than him on the PP because he is not THE passer or the THE shooter.
And in terms of xGA/60, do you realize Tkachuk plays in a Mickey Mouse organization? Everything from ownership to management to coaching has been absolutely terrible for years. I can assure you that all Tkachuk metrics would look much better on the Leafs
Brady Tkachuk has done nothing to prove he's going to be anywhere close to the level of Mitch Marner.
Yet, he TANGIBLY is this season...
Now maybe if you're this extreme Brady Tkachuk fanatic who is absolutely convinced he's going to become significantly better, you pick him over Marner because you think he'll become as good/better in-time. But anyone with common sense should pick the clearly better player.
Actually I am not a huge Tkachuk fan, I wouldn't have mind if he was traded when he was negotiating his contract. I like all of Chabot, Sanderson, Norris, Stutzle, Batherson, Pinto and Greig better. I liked Formenton more before the scandal. I liked Nick Paul and Connor Brown more before Dorion stupidly traded them
That being said, I have enough hockey knowledge, experience and IQ to understand how impactful a player like Tkachuk is. I'd rather have him on my team than not. He's the ultimate pest too (ask anyone who saw him live at ice level), and does this at 6'4 and 212 lbs
Then you're saying "
anyone with common sense" should pick Marner yet the poll results are 64-36 for Brady... Did you read the poll question correctly?
Marner is better defensively too, not just offense.
Another facet where Brady seems to be closing the gap, and he does this while playing on a team where we still wondering if we have any defensive hockey systems. This team has been a total mess without the puck under DJ. They're good with the puck due to many talented players but it is pretty clear what is holding this team back
He's been progressing, despite playing on a rebuilding team with 1-way coaching. Remember he is just 23 y/o
As for people saying "but Brady should be good in playoffs". As far as I can tell, he's never played playoffs in his career. Not in the NHL, and not even in Juniors. True Marner has disappointed somewhat in playoffs at the NHL level, but he still has a decent enough showing, and a great junior playoff pedigree. Marner definitely gets the edge over Brady for playoffs too.
I don't care much about this argument (I never even mentioned it) but this is an assumption people make based on Tkachuk playing style and Marner playoffs "history"
As for contracts - sure Marner makes more, but it's because he's much better. Do you take McDavid, or EP because he makes less? You take the better player.
McDavid has 34 more pts than EP (vs 9 for Marner over Tkachuk). McDavid is one of the best players in history... already. He has 3 years left after this one (Marner has 2), EP has 1 more year then will sign his career contract which might be very expensive.
This is not a good comparison with Marner/Tkachuk contractual situation and also the gap between these players.