As a GM, which player do you take? (contract considered)

[Xspyrit]

As a GM, which player do you take? Contracts are of course considered

This is the term they have left after this season :

Mitch Marner ($10,903,000 x 2 years then UFA)

Brady Tkachuk ($8,205,714 x 5 years then UFA)

Click to read more...

 

[bobholly39]

Last 3 years:

Marner 236 games, 289 points. Pace of 100 points per 82 games
Tkachuk 254 games 196 points. Pace of 63 points per 82 games.

But of course HF is going to choose Brady Tkachuk lol

 

[Three On Zero]

Tkachuk, simple because younger and a bit cheaper (cap world)

Marner is by far the superior player though

 

[Xspyrit]

Last 3 years:

Marner 236 games, 289 points. Pace of 100 points per 82 games
Tkachuk 254 games 196 points. Pace of 63 points per 82 games.

But of course HF is going to choose Brady Tkachuk lol

Why are you comparing teenager years vs peak years?

This is Tkachuk 23 y/o season, where he's entering his prime

Last 2 seasons are a bit irrelevant statistically, particularly if you compare it with Marner's prime

 

[canuckking1]

Matthew is debatable Brady isn't ....

 

[norrisnick]

Tkachuk with his age, contract, and style of play has WAY more trade value (I'm keeping neither player).

And to be clear the style of play reference is purely aesthetic. A lot of GMs are meatheads that love power forwards.

 

[bobholly39]

Why are you comparing teenager years vs peak years?

This is Tkachuk 23 y/o season, where he's entering his prime

Last 2 seasons are a bit irrelevant statistically, particularly if you compare it with Marner's prime

Age 21 season:

Marner 94 points in 82 games, Tkachuk pace of 52 points in 82 games

Age 22 season:

Marner pace of 93 points in 82 games, Tkachuk pace of 69 points in 82 games

Age 23 season:

Marner pace of 100 points in 82 games, Tkachuk pace of 82 points per 82 games

Age 24 season:

Marner pace of 111 poitns in 82 games - Tkachuk ???

Do you think this somehow helps Tkachuk to compare age for age?

This is Marner, by a very significant gap.

 

[Homesick]

Just my opinion but I think Brady is better suited for playoff hockey and is getting better every year.
Marners 7 goals in 33 playoff games is a big cause of concern

 

[jetsforever]

Marner is better but 5 years > 2 years assuming they'll leave afterward.

 

[norrisnick]

Just my opinion but I think Brady is better suited for playoff hockey and is getting better every year.
Marners 7 goals in 33 playoff games is a big cause of concern

If you'd refer to him by his last name you'd know what sort of mistake that is.

 

[The Macho King]

Marner in an eyeblink. Flawed but still an elite player. Tkachuk is just "very good."

 

[Foppberg]

Brady for sure.

 

[Roof Daddy]

Last 3 years:

Marner 236 games, 289 points. Pace of 100 points per 82 games
Tkachuk 254 games 196 points. Pace of 63 points per 82 games.

But of course HF is going to choose Brady Tkachuk lol

Marner had the luxury of playing with Matthews at 5on5 and on a PP featuring Matthews, Nylander, Tavares and Rielly. During that same span, Tkachuk had to be “the guy”, with (up until this year) his only real supporting talent being Chabot and a still developing Stutzle. This year the Sens have a much better team in terms of depth and talent. As a result, Brady has closed the gap in terms of production.

I think if it’s just the players and you leave contracts out of it, it’s very close. I’d still take Tkachuk because I like a player who can go into the trenches and come out on the other end. Marner is extremely talented and plays in all situations, but I’d rather go to war with Tkachuk.

Once you figure in contracts, it’s clearly Tkachuk for me.

 

[dirtydanglez]

tkachuk mostly due to his contract and style of play. marner is the better player but is gonna get like $15m.

 

[wetcoast]

Just my opinion but I think Brady is better suited for playoff hockey and is getting better every year.
Marners 7 goals in 33 playoff games is a big cause of concern

Came here to say something like this and while I like Marner on the Canucks we need a guy like Brady in the worst way.

 

[Xspyrit]

Age 21 season:

Marner 94 points in 82 games, Tkachuk pace of 52 points in 82 games

Age 22 season:

Marner pace of 93 points in 82 games, Tkachuk pace of 69 points in 82 games

Age 23 season:

Marner pace of 100 points in 82 games, Tkachuk pace of 82 points per 82 games

Age 24 season:

Marner pace of 111 poitns in 82 games - Tkachuk ???

Do you think this somehow helps Tkachuk to compare age for age?

This is Marner, by a very significant gap.

lol I never said you should compare them age to age, you HF style did (the power of assumption)

You can't compare them age to age. Marner is an ultra-skilled player with elite playmaking. Tkachuk is an unicorn power forward. Totally different players. And you're also assuming that development is linear and that context is equal, which is totally unrealistic.

Marner "broke out" in his 3rd season at 21 y/o (94 pts in 82 GP). Tkachuk started to breakout last season in his 4th year at 22 y/o but even more this season at 23 y/o

It could be that power forwards "take longer" but I think it has more to do with the team he plays for. You have to be aware that this is a team managed by a GM (who auto-sabotages his teams without even realizing) and a coach who makes Dominique Ducharme look like a perennial Jack Adams candidate. Both should be assistants AT MOST. The only reason why the Sens are playing at 0.500 right now is due to the many talented players on the roster (most were inherited or acquired via tank years or from the firesale trades that Dorion didn't botch (like EK)). The team as a whole is just not very good.

Tkachuk is mostly playing this season with a more developed Stutzle (was 20 y/o until 2 weeks ago), a veteran like Giroux and a more seasoned Batherson (and DeBrincat on the PP). Last year, he mostly played with Norris, Batherson (and Stutzle on the PP), talented guys but were even younger and had very little NHL experience.

Marner on the other hand has played on a good team since he joined the NHL (that he largely contributed in making good) with elite linemates. Marner entered his prime younger than Tkachuk, yes.

Now that we cleared that up : But that's absolutely not the point of this poll...

The question is quite simple though :

TODAY, based on where these players are at today (not where they were 3 years ago), as a GM trying to build a winning team, who do you take based on age, contract and everything else?

 

[HBK27]

Last 3 years:

Marner 236 games, 289 points. Pace of 100 points per 82 games
Tkachuk 254 games 196 points. Pace of 63 points per 82 games.

But of course HF is going to choose Brady Tkachuk lol

Damn straight. Even though Marner is the better player, you get Tkachuk for an additional 3 seasons at a $2.7M lower cap hit.

 

[bobholly39]

lol I never said you should compare them age to age, you HF style did (the power of assumption)

You can't compare them age to age. Marner is an ultra-skilled player with elite playmaking. Tkachuk is an unicorn power forward. Totally different players. And you're also assuming that development is linear and that context is equal, which is totally unrealistic.

Marner "broke out" in his 3rd season at 21 y/o (94 pts in 82 GP). Tkachuk started to breakout last season in his 4th year at 22 y/o but even more this season at 23 y/o

It could be that power forwards "take longer" but I think it has more to do with the team he plays for. You have to be aware that this is a team managed by a GM (who auto-sabotages his teams without even realizing) and a coach who makes Dominique Ducharme look like a perennial Jack Adams candidate. Both should be assistants AT MOST. The only reason why the Sens are playing at 0.500 right now is due to the many talented players on the roster (most were inherited or acquired via tank years or from the firesale trades that Dorion didn't botch (like EK)). The team as a whole is just not very good.

Tkachuk is mostly playing this season with a more developed Stutzle (was 20 y/o until 2 weeks ago), a veteran like Giroux and a more seasoned Batherson (and DeBrincat on the PP). Last year, he mostly played with Norris, Batherson (and Stutzle on the PP), talented guys but were even younger and had very little NHL experience.

Marner on the other hand has played on a good team since he joined the NHL (that he largely contributed in making good) with elite linemates. Marner entered his prime younger than Tkachuk, yes.

Now that we cleared that up : But that's absolutely not the point of this poll...

The question is quite simple though :

TODAY, based on where these players are at today (not where they were 3 years ago), as a GM trying to build a winning team, who do you take based on age, contract and everything else?

Marner has paced for over 90+ points for 5 straight years, and last year for ~110.

Tkachuk this year is 36th in scoring, outside top 40 in ppg. Last season, 83rd in ppg, 59th in scoring.

It's not about breaking out later or earlier, it's about Tkachuk not breaking out to anywhere close to the level of Marner yet. Marner is a significantly better player.

In his first 2 seasons of breaking out (2018-2019 + 2019-2020) Marner was 11th in scoring and 12th in ppg combining both years.

In past 2 seasons where you say he's broken out, Tkachuk is 65th in ppg, and 50th in points.

Brady Tkachuk has done nothing to prove he's going to be anywhere close to the level of Mitch Marner.

Now maybe if you're this extreme Brady Tkachuk fanatic who is absolutely convinced he's going to become significantly better, you pick him over Marner because you think he'll become as good/better in-time. But anyone with common sense should pick the clearly better player.

Marner is better defensively too, not just offense.

As for people saying "but Brady should be good in playoffs". As far as I can tell, he's never played playoffs in his career. Not in the NHL, and not even in Juniors. True Marner has disappointed somewhat in playoffs at the NHL level, but he still has a decent enough showing, and a great junior playoff pedigree. Marner definitely gets the edge over Brady for playoffs too.

As for contracts - sure Marner makes more, but it's because he's much better. Do you take McDavid, or EP because he makes less? You take the better player.

 

[swiftwin]

Last 3 years:

Marner 236 games, 289 points. Pace of 100 points per 82 games
Tkachuk 254 games 196 points. Pace of 63 points per 82 games.

But of course HF is going to choose Brady Tkachuk lol

The question is not "who would you rather have had the previous 3 seasons". The question is who would you rather have going forward.

Besides, Marner is 3 years older, so comparing the previous 3 season is doubly pointless.

 

[Mr Kot]

While I think Marner is better, Oilers can't afford him.

Well, can't afford Tkachuck either, but it's a smaller contract.

 

[Xspyrit]

Marner has paced for over 90+ points for 5 straight years, and last year for ~110.

Tkachuk this year is 36th in scoring, outside top 40 in ppg. Last season, 83rd in ppg, 59th in scoring.

Again, going back years is totally useless and irrelevant, unless you think Tkachuk is having an outlier season? This is the 1st season where Tkachuk is producing near Marner's level. Marner has 9 more pts but has played 2 more games. The point of this poll is obviously GOING FORWARD and taking contracts in consideration

It's not about breaking out later or earlier, it's about Tkachuk not breaking out to anywhere close to the level of Marner yet. Marner is a significantly better player.

Marner is a significantly better player? This season? By which metrics? PK? Ok great, Mathieu Joseph usually has Elite PK metrics. Everyone knows Tkachuk brings a lot more than points too...

Marner

On-Ice ES : 3.18 xGF/60 (89th amongst forwards), 2.79 xGA/60 (181st), 53.22 xGF% (104th)
On-Ice PP : 11.0 xGF/60 (13th)

Individual ES : 0.85 Goals/60 (137th), 1.62 Assists/60 (43th)
Individual PP : 1.83 Goals/60 (91st), 5.80 Assists/60 (6th)

Tkachuk

On-Ice ES : 4.12 xGF/60 (3rd best amongst forwards), 3.02 xGA/60 (248th), 57.73 xGF% (25th)
On-Ice PP : 10.7 xGF/60 (21st)

Individual ES : 1.26 Goals/60 (44th), 1.35 Assists/60 (110th)
Individual PP : 1.43 Goals/60 (117th), 4.28 Assists/60 (35th)

*ES : minimum 300 mins
**PP : minimum 100 mins

So he's more productive on the PP? Of course, he's one of the best playmakers in the league and plays with Matthews, Tavares, Nylander and Rielly. Tkachuk also play with good players who are more productive than him on the PP because he is not THE passer or the THE shooter.

And in terms of xGA/60, do you realize Tkachuk plays in a Mickey Mouse organization? Everything from ownership to management to coaching has been absolutely terrible for years. I can assure you that all Tkachuk metrics would look much better on the Leafs

Brady Tkachuk has done nothing to prove he's going to be anywhere close to the level of Mitch Marner.

Yet, he TANGIBLY is this season...

Now maybe if you're this extreme Brady Tkachuk fanatic who is absolutely convinced he's going to become significantly better, you pick him over Marner because you think he'll become as good/better in-time. But anyone with common sense should pick the clearly better player.

Actually I am not a huge Tkachuk fan, I wouldn't have mind if he was traded when he was negotiating his contract. I like all of Chabot, Sanderson, Norris, Stutzle, Batherson, Pinto and Greig better. I liked Formenton more before the scandal. I liked Nick Paul and Connor Brown more before Dorion stupidly traded them

That being said, I have enough hockey knowledge, experience and IQ to understand how impactful a player like Tkachuk is. I'd rather have him on my team than not. He's the ultimate pest too (ask anyone who saw him live at ice level), and does this at 6'4 and 212 lbs

Then you're saying "anyone with common sense" should pick Marner yet the poll results are 64-36 for Brady... Did you read the poll question correctly?

Marner is better defensively too, not just offense.

Another facet where Brady seems to be closing the gap, and he does this while playing on a team where we still wondering if we have any defensive hockey systems. This team has been a total mess without the puck under DJ. They're good with the puck due to many talented players but it is pretty clear what is holding this team back

He's been progressing, despite playing on a rebuilding team with 1-way coaching. Remember he is just 23 y/o

As for people saying "but Brady should be good in playoffs". As far as I can tell, he's never played playoffs in his career. Not in the NHL, and not even in Juniors. True Marner has disappointed somewhat in playoffs at the NHL level, but he still has a decent enough showing, and a great junior playoff pedigree. Marner definitely gets the edge over Brady for playoffs too.

I don't care much about this argument (I never even mentioned it) but this is an assumption people make based on Tkachuk playing style and Marner playoffs "history"

As for contracts - sure Marner makes more, but it's because he's much better. Do you take McDavid, or EP because he makes less? You take the better player.

McDavid has 34 more pts than EP (vs 9 for Marner over Tkachuk). McDavid is one of the best players in history... already. He has 3 years left after this one (Marner has 2), EP has 1 more year then will sign his career contract which might be very expensive.

This is not a good comparison with Marner/Tkachuk contractual situation and also the gap between these players.

 

[Samsquanch]

If you'd refer to him by his last name you'd know what sort of mistake that is.

Lmao the Tkachuks are hockey royalty at this point. What Keith did in the playoffs is completely irrelevant when you consider the fact that he's a 500g scorer that fathered two NHL superstars. 2 for 2 and the 3rd child is standout college athelte in her own right.

His boys are not plagued by his name or lacking in supreme genetics....

That last name carries more weight and credibility in the world than Marner can ever dream of having - a name that mostly just makes hockey families from around the GTA cringe and shutter from recalling the bad memories of having to deal with them and their antics.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

Beyond Brady Tkachuk being cheaper, which has nothing to do with who the better player is, there is no legitimate argument for him over Marner you can't make it, It's impossible.

 

[Bouboumaster]

Habs fan here would take Tkachuck (we should have him )

1- Better contract
2- That way, he would stop to son'd us
3- Marner is better but he's a huge p****, especially when comes playoffs times
4- Tkachuck simply brings more to the table

 

[Heldig]

As a Jets fan I think Tkachuk is a better fit given the mix of current forwards and contracts.