Around the NHL: Part XI – He's the #1 Cop on the Force!

[duhmetreE]

its not 100% that panarin makes it to ufa...still time for him to get traded to fla and sign before july 1st

and what are the odds that panarin will still be a great player in the final 3-4 years of his contract making $11 mil per year given that even best case scenario we are gonna be terrible and waste him for the next 2-3 years? it has nothing to do with how good panarin is right now.

Great odds IMO

 

[The Crypto Guy]

Great odds IMO

Not sure how you could be so confident in that. Players typically start the downward slop late 20s/early 30s.

 

[duhmetreE]

Not sure how you could be so confident in that. Players typically start the downward slop late 20s/early 30s.

I understand we're on HF but that number has always been around 35. It really hasn't changed, if anything it's been improved upon.

Some players do age poorly or are hindered by injury. Players do not drastically change YOY until their body starts faltering. Once again, that's typically around 35. Not late 20's or early 30's.

You could make the argument of people getting paid and becoming 'fat and lazy'.

 

[The Crypto Guy]

I understand we're on HF but that number has always been around 35. It really hasn't changed, if anything it's been improved upon.

Some players do age poorly or are hindered by injury. Players do not drastically change YOY until their body starts faltering. Once again, that's typically around 35. Not late 20's or early 30's.

You could make the argument of people getting paid and becoming 'fat and lazy'.

35?

Most players are retired by 35. Not sure where you got that from.

Defenseman typically can play a little longer, but how many forwards in the NHL are 35 or over? 12-13?

And if anything that number has not improved, the game is a young mans game more than ever.

 

[SML2]

The fundamental problem I have with UFA players is that they are "me" guys. If you have a player who has fought and bled with a room full of guys, been through the battles and bonded woth them, why does he turn his back on them for money? None of these guys are struggling. It's not life vs. death. So if his original team wants him to stay, but he says, no, I want to try the market, whay does that tell you about his mindset? If they can't fit the player in with the cap or they're not offering near market, I understand. But all things equal, a guy who walks away on his brothers I find selfish. You can't get too many of those guys in a room together or you wind up with what we had in 2000 until the time Henrik arrived.

 

[duhmetreE]

35?

Most players are retired by 35. Not sure where you got that from.

Defenseman typically can play a little longer, but how many forwards in the NHL are over 35? 12-13?

That's the point. Player usually retire around 35. ( AROUND 35. Meaning 34-36 ) why? because they're not physically capable anymore. That's the typical 'slow-down' age.

This is also a broad generalization. Some retire earlier, some can play until 45.

 

[The Crypto Guy]

That's the point. Player usually retire around 35. ( AROUND 35. Meaning 34-36 ) why? because they're not physically capable anymore. That's the 'slow-down' age.

This is also a broad generalization. Some retire earlier, some can play until 45.

No that is not the slow down age lol. That is the age where they can't hack it in the NHL anymore, and that number is far sooner than 35 for the average NHLer. The slow down age is late 20s/early 30s for the average NHL player, closer on the late 20s.

Yea 1 in 1,000 can play till they are 45. Why are you even bringing that up to try and proof your point?

 

[duhmetreE]

No that is not the slow down age lol. That is the age where they can't hack it in the NHL anymore, and that number is far sooner than 35 for the average NHLer. The slow down age is late 20s/early 30s for the averge NHL player.

Ok. Late 20's is when people psychically slow down. Please show me when a point-per-game forward became a potato in his late 20's? (not due to injury) or do these players typically produce until 34-36?

We're not talking about an average NHL player. Cost benefits and value come into play when talking about 'average NHL players'

edit- Corey Perry was the only one I can find. It just so happens to coincide with him getting paid

 

[aufheben]

I’m still on the fence about Panarin, but holy shit is he good. Those goals last night?

 

[haohmaru]

Ok. Late 20's is when people psychically slow down. Please show me when a point-per-game forward became a potato in his late 20's? (not due to injury) or do these players typically produce until 34-36?

We're not talking about an average NHL player. Cost benefits and value come into play when talking about 'average NHL players'

edit- Corey Perry was the only one I can find. It just so happens to coincide with him getting paid

Look at Marchand - he actually got better in his late 20's - best season, so far, @ 30. Panarin will produce just fine 4-5 years into a 7 year deal with whoever he signs with.

Tavares, too, just had his best season @ age 28.

The concerning thing about Panarin is $/term/NMC, not that he won't produce.

 

[The Crypto Guy]

Ok. Late 20's is when people psychically slow down. Please show me when a point-per-game forward became a potato in his late 20's? (not due to injury) or do these players typically produce until 34-36?

We're not talking about an average NHL player. Cost benefits and value come into play when talking about 'average NHL players'

edit- Corey Perry was the only one I can find. It just so happens to coincide with him getting paid

Well i said on AVERAGE , not just elite players but all players . And i never said they turn into potatoes.

 

[aufheben]

Look at Marchand - he actually got better in his late 20's - best season, so far, @ 30. Panarin will produce just fine 4-5 years into a 7 year deal with whoever he signs with.

Tavares, too, just had his best season @ age 28.

The concerning thing about Panarin is $/term/NMC, not that he won't produce.

Which, for a team with money, is only a concern if it prevents the team from signing all their other players.

 

[PuckLuck3043]

He will be too old when we are good. Hence no pls.

He will be too old when we are good. Hence no pls.

How do you know when we will be good? The rebuild is going splendidly especially with that 2oa pick that you kept insisting all year was impossible unless we finished bottom 3. How did that work out? This team could be ready to compete in 2 years and that would make Panarin a whole 29 yrs of age.

 

[ReggieDunlop68]

How do you know when we will be good? The rebuild is going splendidly especially with that 2oa pick that you kept insisting all year was impossible unless we finished bottom 3. How did that work out? This team could be ready to compete in 2 years and that would make Panarin a whole 29 yrs of age.

Stop being so pedantic about everything. Yuck...

 

[ReggieDunlop68]

@ALL of You Especially the Smelly Old Farts

Just be non sucker and patient Ranger fans for once and you ironically will get what you crave.

 

[will1066]

The fundamental problem I have with UFA players is that they are "me" guys. If you have a player who has fought and bled with a room full of guys, been through the battles and bonded woth them, why does he turn his back on them for money? None of these guys are struggling. It's not life vs. death. So if his original team wants him to stay, but he says, no, I want to try the market, whay does that tell you about his mindset? If they can't fit the player in with the cap or they're not offering near market, I understand. But all things equal, a guy who walks away on his brothers I find selfish. You can't get too many of those guys in a room together or you wind up with what we had in 2000 until the time Henrik arrived.

I think that even the guys in the room would understand if a brother walked away and that ultimately it is a business. There are also forces at work like the NHLPA and the player's agent who want to keep nudging the market upward. Once in a while you have someone who bucks the trend and takes a hometown or some other kind of discount like a front-loaded contract.

 

[Maximus]

its not 100% that panarin makes it to ufa...still time for him to get traded to fla and sign before july 1st

and what are the odds that panarin will still be a great player in the final 3-4 years of his contract making $11 mil per year given that even best case scenario we are gonna be terrible and waste him for the next 2-3 years? it has nothing to do with how good panarin is right now.

Why exactly are we going to be terrible for the next 2-3 years? Maybe I'm living in lala land and all there are here are unicorns, roses and daisies but with the exciting core we already have led by Mika,Kreider...etc, the prospect pool we've accumulated the past two years combined with what we are about to do over the summer in the draft adding what very likely will be a generational type player in Kakko, even withought Panarin, I see us easily flirting for a playoff spot as a bubble team.

Now you add a Panarin to the mix, there is no question, we are a playoff team and by 2021, we should be ready to make some long playoff runs and start to threaten for a Cup.

So I just don't see in anyway shape or form, we will be terrible with Panarin when even withought him, we should be damn competitive and be quite a bit better than we were this past season where we were an absolute pain in the ass for the opposition to play against.

I dunno, maybe on an island here but this rebuild is going perfectly and it's going quick as well. I didn't sign up for it to take 5 years before we make the playoffs again which is what you are eluding too. We've missed the playoffs two years now. We are poised and ready to make the playoffs beginning this coming season and adding a Panarin insures that and doesn't hurt our rebuild whatsoever and in fact accelerates it. I'm all for signing Panarin as I've said repeatedly and I think Gorton will in fact do so and if Panarin doesn't come here, its not going to be because Gorton didn't do his damnest to get him here.

 

[duhmetreE]

Look at Marchand - he actually got better in his late 20's - best season, so far, @ 30. Panarin will produce just fine 4-5 years into a 7 year deal with whoever he signs with.

Tavares, too, just had his best season @ age 28.

The concerning thing about Panarin is $/term/NMC, not that he won't produce.

I rarely see that presented.. I see, 'Well, how's he going to produce into his 30's' waaaaaaay too much.

Which, for a team with money, is only a concern if it prevents the team from signing all their other players.

Which it wouldn't, considering we have a plethora of ELC's and RFA's over his hypothetical term...

Not even factoring in a rising cap and $25M coming off the books in 2 years. Possibly shedding Kreiders contract as well.

Term and Cap space is a non-issue. That's why it has reverted to 'Well hows he going to produce when he hits 30'.

I honestly think there's a better chance of Panarin hitting a higher level than regressing at 30. Improvement on the PP production could make him a 100pt player. Also think he has the potential/skill to be a 40 goal scorer. As previously mentioned, I can see him going the way of Marchand, in terms of production, if not better.

 

[eco's bones]

Zero percent chance MacKinnon or Jones make it to UFA

Very, very low anyway. I wouldn't say there was zero. A player can always say no once they're in reach of unrestricted free agency and there's a chance the player and management will be at odds over something or other but that's really an outlier of a situation. I would say at most there might be 10% on Jones and 5% on MacKinnon. If Gorton bypasses on Panarin because he thinks MacKinnon is going to be available a couple years from now he's not fit to be our GM. Teams go all out to lock up their franchise players and they will cut bait on the rest of their rosters to do it.

 

[eco's bones]

I rarely see that presented.. I see, 'Well, how's he going to produce into his 30's' waaaaaaay too much.

Which it wouldn't considering we have a plethora of ELC's and RFA's over his hypothetical term...

Not even factoring in a rising cap and $25M coming off the books in 2 years. Possibly shedding Kreiders contract as well.

Term and Cap space is a non-issue. That's why it's reverted to 'Well hows he going to produce when he hits 30'.

I honestly think there's a better chance of Panarin hitting a higher level than regressing at 30. Improvement on the PP production could make him a 100pt player. Also think he has the potential/skill to be a 40 goal scorer

Great post.

 

[duhmetreE]

Well i said on AVERAGE , not just elite players but all players . And i never said they turn into potatoes.

So what you're saying is irrelevant to Panarin producing into his 30's. Why bring it up then?

'Average NHL' are typically bottom 6 players. IMO That 'regression age group' could be skewed greatly. I think the average NHL player could play into their 30's, it's just cost prohibitive for a lot of teams. You'd have to pay them more money than a kid on controlled years.

 

[PuckLuck3043]

Stop being so pedantic about everything. Yuck...

Stop trying to pretend you know more than everybody which you obviously do not.

 

[will1066]

Why exactly are we going to be terrible for the next 2-3 years? Maybe I'm living in lala land and all there are here are unicorns, roses and daisies but with the exciting core we already have led by Mika,Kreider...etc, the prospect pool we've accumulated the past two years combined with what we are about to do over the summer in the draft adding what very likely will be a generational type player in Kakko, even withought Panarin, I see us easily flirting for a playoff spot as a bubble team.

Now you add a Panarin to the mix, there is no question, we are a playoff team and by 2021, we should be ready to make some long playoff runs and start to threaten for a Cup.

So I just don't see in anyway shape or form, we will be terrible with Panarin when even withought him, we should be damn competitive and be quite a bit better than we were this past season where we were an absolute pain in the ass for the opposition to play against.

I dunno, maybe on an island here but this rebuild is going perfectly and it's going quick as well. I didn't sign up for it to take 5 years before we make the playoffs again which is what you are eluding too. We've missed the playoffs two years now. We are poised and ready to make the playoffs beginning this coming season and adding a Panarin insures that and doesn't hurt our rebuild whatsoever and in fact accelerates it. I'm all for signing Panarin as I've said repeatedly and I think Gorton will in fact do so and if Panarin doesn't come here, its not going to be because Gorton didn't do his damnest to get him here.

We're in that zone of the atmosphere where it's easy for people to take sides depending on whether they look at things as half-full or half-empty. Those will say we are terrible and in the troposphere because we had the fewest ROWs in the league. Others will say we are close in the stratosphere and being competitive because we pushed the opposition past regulation 14 or so times and lost because of a skills competition or non-conventional 3-on-3 hockey instead of normal 5-on-5 hockey.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

Why exactly are we going to be terrible for the next 2-3 years? Maybe I'm living in lala land and all there are here are unicorns, roses and daisies but with the exciting core we already have led by Mika,Kreider...etc, the prospect pool we've accumulated the past two years combined with what we are about to do over the summer in the draft adding what very likely will be a generational type player in Kakko, even withought Panarin, I see us easily flirting for a playoff spot as a bubble team.

Now you add a Panarin to the mix, there is no question, we are a playoff team and by 2021, we should be ready to make some long playoff runs and start to threaten for a Cup.

So I just don't see in anyway shape or form, we will be terrible with Panarin when even withought him, we should be damn competitive and be quite a bit better than we were this past season where we were an absolute pain in the ass for the opposition to play against.

I dunno, maybe on an island here but this rebuild is going perfectly and it's going quick as well. I didn't sign up for it to take 5 years before we make the playoffs again which is what you are eluding too. We've missed the playoffs two years now. We are poised and ready to make the playoffs beginning this coming season and adding a Panarin insures that and doesn't hurt our rebuild whatsoever and in fact accelerates it. I'm all for signing Panarin as I've said repeatedly and I think Gorton will in fact do so and if Panarin doesn't come here, its not going to be because Gorton didn't do his damnest to get him here.

Oh come on man, don't do that...

But its very possible that this team will still suck balls with or with out Panarin. Our defense is still a train wreck and they may be sans Kreider as well. This group as they are right now lost 14 of their last 20.

Don't get it twisted, they played hard down the stretch, but they still sucked.

IF they're getting Panarin, the following things must happen:

- Kreider is traded
- They add a quality RHD
- Staal is used as an extra
- Pionk also gets moved

And before he can even sign...
- They traded up for another top 10 pick/whatever pick to grab one of the top centers of this draft.

 

[ReggieDunlop68]

Stop trying to pretend you know more than everybody which you obviously do not.

Feels good to have that number 2 no?