Around the NHL Part VII

[SnowblindNYR]

You're not the only one. If teams take care of their games in hand, the standings look a lot scarier. People in here seem to have way to much optimism for my liking.

We have a 99.4% chance of making the playoffs and a 94% chance at a top 3 spot. 70% chance at a #2 spot. I'm still worried because we're the Rangers and I just saw what happened to the Leafs but let's not get carried away. We're about to play 6 out of 8 games against the trash of the league. The other 2 games are not against elite teams either. Colorado who we embarrassed the first time and Montreal who I think we badly outplayed last game.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

Or maybe he left his goal scoring ability at TB and cally found it

Did Cally leave his shot blocking ability in New York then?

 

[AHB*]

We have a 99.4% chance of making the playoffs and a 94% chance at a top 3 spot. 70% chance at a #2 spot. I'm still worried because we're the Rangers and I just saw what happened to the Leafs but let's not get carried away. We're about to play 6 out of 8 games against the trash of the league. The other 2 games are not against elite teams either. Colorado who we embarrassed the first time and Montreal who I think we badly outplayed last game.

I don't agree with those "odds."

If Philly wins their games in hand, they pass us.

If Columbus wins their 2 games in hand, they are within one game of us.

If Detroit wins their one game in hand, they are within 2 games of us.

If Washington wins their game in hand, they are also within 2 games of us.

After that, it gets a little more difficult. It's very likely we make the playoffs, but I don't think there's a 99.4% chance (all but impossible) that something like that could happen.

All in all, their are four teams within a 2 game range of us if you account for their games in hand. Do you really thing that with 8 games left to go teams can't make up two games?

Again, not saying it's likely, but certainly not impossible, like many are making it out to be. Until we've officially clinched, I wont' feel safe.

 

[SnowblindNYR]

I don't agree with those "odds."

If Philly wins their games in hand, they pass us.

If Columbus wins their 2 games in hand, they are within one game of us.

If Detroit wins their one game in hand, they are within 2 games of us.

If Washington wins their game in hand, they are also within 2 games of us.

After that, it gets a little more difficult. It's very likely we make the playoffs, but I don't think there's a 99.4% chance (all but impossible) that something like that could happen.

All in all, their are four teams within a 2 game range of us if you account for their games in hand. Do you really thing that with 8 games left to go teams can't make up two games?

Again, not saying it's likely, but certainly not impossible, like many are making it out to be. Until we've officially clinched, I wont' feel safe.

It's called math or what I like to call the only objective thing there is in this world.

 

[nyrleetch]

Bob McKenzie ‏@TSNBobMcKenzie 46s

NYI owner Charles Wang in talks to sell majority stake in NHL franchise. Nothing done yet, no telling if it gets done, but talks underway.

 

[NoQuitInNewMexico]

Wang in talks to sell the Islanders re: McKenzie (@TSNBobMcKenzie)

 

[Bluenote13]

It was just a case of how long Wang would hold on.

 

[Callagraves]

Did Cally leave his shot blocking ability in New York then?

From what I've seen of MSL in New York and Cally in Tampa: No.

 

[Vitto79]

Nobody going to comment on DET-MTL. That's a huge win for us!

Unlike most people here, I don't think we're in the clear for the playoffs just yet. These games are still important to me.

I was at the game. Nice goals all over . Yea it's safer cheering for the teams behind nyr to lose

 

[Ail]

I don't agree with those "odds."

If Philly wins their games in hand, they pass us.

If Columbus wins their 2 games in hand, they are within one game of us.

If Detroit wins their one game in hand, they are within 2 games of us.

If Washington wins their game in hand, they are also within 2 games of us.

After that, it gets a little more difficult. It's very likely we make the playoffs, but I don't think there's a 99.4% chance (all but impossible) that something like that could happen.

All in all, their are four teams within a 2 game range of us if you account for their games in hand. Do you really thing that with 8 games left to go teams can't make up two games?

Again, not saying it's likely, but certainly not impossible, like many are making it out to be. Until we've officially clinched, I wont' feel safe.

"I disagree with statistics."

Not exactly the most reasonable stance to take, but okay.

 

[haohmaru]

"I disagree with statistics."

Not exactly the most reasonable stance to take, but okay.

Yup.

And you have to take into consideration that some of these teams (like TOR/PHI tonight) play each other and someone is not getting two points.

Add to that the Rangers ROW lead and it's going to be pretty hard to keep them out unless they totally collapse. If they go 4-4 down the stretch, for example, and end up with 94 points then a team like the Jackets would have to 7-2-1 in their last 10 to pass them having to play Pit/Col/Phi/Chi/Pho/Dal/TB

Personally, I'm pulling for the CBJ's to get in but man they've got a tough road.

Philly's got Boston twice, CBJ's, STL, Pens, and TB.

Rangers toughest opposition is Colorado and Montreal and maybe Vancouver.

 

[mandiblesofdoom]

"I disagree with statistics."

Not exactly the most reasonable stance to take, but okay.

Sportsclubstats is fun, but it's only a prediction, of course. Toronto was over 80% before they started losing.

I like SCS the 50/50 option more than weighted .... Rangers are in a good spot but still have a little more winning to do. They seem to be finding their game at a good time.

 

[Infinitum Vitae*]

We have to remember...nothing is easy in the NHL...and no team is just going to let us beat them...they have respect and want to win even if they won't make the playoffs...so we have to play them like its the playoffs

 

[HockeyBasedNYC]

I wonder if Prokhorov is interested in buying the Isles so he becomes the Dolan of Brooklyn

 

[Synergy27]

"I disagree with statistics."

Not exactly the most reasonable stance to take, but okay.

I'm a stats nerd, but to be fair, there are assumptions and estimates that go into statistical calculations and inferences so it is perfectly valid to disagree with them.

 

[Vickers8]

Cally has two goals tonight

Good for Cally, that's 5 now...St.La-midget- 0

 

[The Gloaming]

Good for Cally, that's 5 now...St.La-midget- 0

Hahaha it's funny because...wait a minute.

It's actually not funny at all.

 

[AHB*]

"I disagree with statistics."

Not exactly the most reasonable stance to take, but okay.

This isn't "he has 10 goals this year." Nor is it 1+1 = 2. The website you guys are using takes into account assumptions, which, like it or not, do not make it fully objective. IN fact, their calculations are based on SUBJECTIVE data.

The sentiment of it i agree with. But in this case, the "statistics" are more of an educated guess (a very good one) then an actual fact, like many of you are presenting it to be.

It's somewhat pathetic that you guys would act like I'm an idiot because I don't feel as safe based on "assumed statistics."

These are calculated , not based on factual data, but on the "assumptions" that the Rangers will win the games against lower teams. Sure, it's a fair assumption to make, but these algorithms are based around these assumptions as facts. And as we've seen over the course of the year, the Rangers can certainly lose to teams like EDM, CAL, VAN, etc.

Again, I think their chances of making the playoffs are very high, but not a given.

 

[OverTheCap]

I generally don't rest easy until the Rangers officially clinch a playoff spot. They are capable of losing to teams they should beat and are guilty of underestimating their opponents at times as they did with Carolina earlier this month. And I still haven't forgotten that dreadful loss to Atlanta during the second to last game of the season in 2011 which caused us to no longer control our own destiny.

 

[Vickers8]

Hahaha it's funny because...wait a minute.

It's actually not funny at all.

Wasn't trying to be funny! By the way with a name like Rangers fail, you're the everlasting Ranger optimist?

 

[Abooch68]

So I assume we're all pulling for the Jackets in regulation tonight?

 

[Ail]

This isn't "he has 10 goals this year." Nor is it 1+1 = 2. The website you guys are using takes into account assumptions, which, like it or not, do not make it fully objective. IN fact, their calculations are based on SUBJECTIVE data.

The sentiment of it i agree with. But in this case, the "statistics" are more of an educated guess (a very good one) then an actual fact, like many of you are presenting it to be.

It's somewhat pathetic that you guys would act like I'm an idiot because I don't feel as safe based on "assumed statistics."

These are calculated , not based on factual data, but on the "assumptions" that the Rangers will win the games against lower teams. Sure, it's a fair assumption to make, but these algorithms are based around these assumptions as facts. And as we've seen over the course of the year, the Rangers can certainly lose to teams like EDM, CAL, VAN, etc.

Again, I think their chances of making the playoffs are very high, but not a given.

I said it was unreasonable not stupid. If you feel stupid from being unreasonable that's on you.

If someone told you there was a .5% chance something bad could happen to on any given day would you never leave your house?

It's not a given but it is highly likely. Sorry for looking at it from that perspective and not the small chance a team playing well collapses against lesser opponents.

 

[Overcast]

Wasn't trying to be funny! By the way with a name like Rangers fail, you're the everlasting Ranger optimist?

It shows when you throw around "midget" as some sort of insult/jab at MSL.

So I assume we're all pulling for the Jackets in regulation tonight?

Why would we want CLB to gain any ground on the Rangers? To stay ahead of WSH for the wildcard?

 

[Vickers8]

It shows when you throw around "midget" as some sort of insult/jab at MSL.

My bad, he actually is a good hockey player, hopefully he gets on track we need him...happy for Cally though, a class act...

 

[Don Chytil]

These are calculated , not based on factual data, but on the "assumptions" that the Rangers will win the games against lower teams. Sure, it's a fair assumption to make, but these algorithms are based around these assumptions as facts. And as we've seen over the course of the year, the Rangers can certainly lose to teams like EDM, CAL, VAN, etc.

Again, I think their chances of making the playoffs are very high, but not a given.

So set Sportsclubstats to "50/50" instead of weighted, getting rid of such assumptions. Now each game is weighted as a coin flip (which they're not really, but okay), and we still have a 97.7% chance of making the playoffs.