Around the NHL 2024-2025

[Brian39]

He seems like he works at Greensfelder and bills $1,000/hr

There isn't that type of money to be made in my area (criminal defense), but if you ever get arrested then we can talk (much more reasonable) pricing lol.

 

[TheOrganist]

There isn't that type of money to be made in my area (criminal defense), but if you ever get arrested then we can talk (much more reasonable) pricing lol.

Better. Call. Brian...well, judging by the level of intellect from your posts, your clients certainly get good representation.

 

[Reality Czech]

You must really hate Steve Dangle.

Who doesn't?

 

[Brian39]

I read something on the main boards that had he been born two days earlier, he would’ve been in the 03 draft instead of 04.

So theoretically between the Covid/lockout seasons, and had he been born earlier and played in the 03-04 season, he could be at 1000 damn near lol

I don't think that we can assume Ovi would have exploded onto the scene as a 40+ goal scorer as a (super young) 18 year old in 2003/04 if he had been born a few days earlier. I get that it is hard to compare NHL scoring to the Russian league he was playing in, but he had 13 goals in 57 games for Dynamo in 2003/04. Then he had 1 goal in 6 games during the World Championships. His scoring increased in 2004/05 and is probably in line with an expectation that he could have had 30+ in the NHL as a 19 year old rookie. Ovi wasn't small at 18, but he wasn't the absurd physical specimen that he was when he broke into the NHL at 20. He suffered a shoulder injury during the WJC tournament in 2004/05, which seems insane given his durability in the NHL. Ovi was a bull in a china shop early in his career and while he was able to do that as a 20 year old rookie, I don't think he'd have been able to play that way in the NHL at 18.

There is also a pretty good chance that he wouldn't have gotten out of his Dynamo contract to come to the NHL in 2003/04 either. The Pens practically had to kidnap Malkin to get him over to the NHL 2 years after drafting him.

There are always what ifs and Ovi definitely could be further toward 1,000 if things had been a bit different. But I don't think the increase to his totals would have been massive. And with as much as he's talked about wanting to play in the KHL after the NHL, maybe breaking Gretzky's record 1-2 years ago would have made him leave the NHL already.

No matter what, he's the greatest goal scorer in the history of the game. It's incredible that he broke the record considering the era he played in. That was a record that I long considered unbreakable given the difference between 1980s hockey and the 1990s, 2000s, and 2010s. I know that era adjusted stats aren't perfect, but Ovi is now siting at 999 adjusted goals while Gretzky is at 758. Again, those adjustments aren't perfect, but they demonstrate just how much harder it has been to score in Ovi's career than Gretzky's.

He's basically a lock for 900+ goals and he's won an absurd 9 Rocket Richard trophies. Remarkable career and I feel pretty lucky to have witnessed all of it.

 

[DoubleK81]

I read something on the main boards that had he been born two days earlier, he would’ve been in the 03 draft instead of 04.

So theoretically between the Covid/lockout seasons, and had he been born earlier and played in the 03-04 season, he could be at 1000 damn near lol

Florida tried to draft him that year stating a technicality on something about how a year is defined or something like that.

 

[Brian39]

Florida tried to draft him that year stating a technicality on something about how a year is defined or something like that.

They tried to argue that 4 leap years took place between his birthday and the draft and that those days should be credited as 'extra' days that would mean that he 'actually' turned 18 on September 13 and not his September 17 birthday. Someone in their organization was convinced that the CBA's definitions regarding age weren't ironclad enough to completely remove all chance of success.

Apparently they tried to pick him for several rounds, kept getting told to pound sand, and then in the 9th round told the league that they were going to announce Ovechkin as their pick unless the league gave them a written rejection to their 'interpretation' of the age cutoff in the CBA.

Somewhere, there is written correspondence from the NHL legal team politely telling the Panthers to quit screwing around about leap years that I assume is written with the same contempt judges have for sovereign citizen nonsense. I'd absolutely love to see it (even though I know I never will).

 

[ezcreepin]

Haha yup I’m stoopid

Nah you're all good lmao

 

[ezcreepin]

The broad, short version is that there are 192 days in this year's NHL season. The cap is calculated on a daily basis and a player's daily cap hit is 1/192 of his AAV. Let's use a $1M AAV as the example. Every day a $1M player is on your NHL roster, he counts for $5,208.33 against the cap.

The $88M cap means that you can spend $88M of cap hits throughout the 192 day season. 1/192 of $88M is $458,333.33. On day 1, you are not allowed to to ice a roster with a combined daily cap hit more than $458,333.33 (excluding LTIR, which I am ignoring for this purpose). However, if you spend less than that amount on day 1, then you 'bank' cap space to use later. Let's say that you have exactly $408,333.33 in daily cap hits on day 1. That means that you have an 'extra' $50k to spend across the remaining 191 days of the season. If you have exactly $408,333.33 in daily cap hits for the first 60 games of the season, then you have 'banked' $50k per day, for a total of $3M of cap space to use in the future.

Ultimately, tracking this daily is a ton of work. Capwages has an (IMO imperfect) daily tracker. I don't think they do a great job fully tracking/explaining how LTIR actually impacts the daily calculation and a team fully relying on it wouldn't maximize how well they could maneuver the cap. But for our purposes, it is plenty accurate.

However you slice it though, the Blues have the ability to call anyone up. We have a cushion of a few hundred grand of daily cap hits before we would even start to utilize the relief from putting Krug on LTIR and those AHL call ups only count for about $5k a day.

And this is why some teams who have quite a bit of cap are allowed to trade for players when they otherwise wouldn't be able to. The accrued savings you earn allows for some weird stuff to happen at the end of the season. LTIR makes this analysis way more convoluted and I'm not going to pretend I even know 1% of how it works.