Around the NHL — Episode XLXVII

[Xspyrit]

That line is shooting at 12.6%, idk how sustainable that is, they'd still be a good line shooting at a more reasonable level though.

Just like Josh Norris has a career 18.1%, unfortunately, that line has 3 good converters. Caufield looks like he'll be a 16% guy in his prime, Suzuki has shot for 16+ the last 3 seasons and Slafkovský has shot 13+ the last 2 seasons and just turned 21 y/o

In comparison, our 3 best forwards have career 13.1% (Stutzle), 12.6% (Batherson) and 9.7% (Tkachuk). Cozens has 10% so far in his career and we traded our best finisher to get him, but in Norris case, his contract while being so injury-prone we had not much choice. What would be nice is if Staios could add a finisher this off-season. A guy like Perron actually, but much younger.

Not gonna lie, it's a hell of a story for Montreal. Who would have thought? Even if they get waxed in the first round, it doesn't matter. They weren't meant to be there in the first place.

Me?

Demidov is the wild card there for sure.

I don’t think Dach is that good and he misses so much time every year so I’m not betting on his health. Laine is a PP specialist but in fairness their PP could be absolutely deadly next season. Although I don’t know who Demidov would replace - presumably Slaf based on numbers, but I don’t know if Montreal will want to do that.

Dach is very close to a failed experiment, maybe the guy could be good/decent but just like with Josh Norris, missed way too much time already and unless you suddenly stop being injury prone (like it happened for Alfie), it's going to affect your career. Laine is an incredible PP weapon but overall ordinary at ES. Not too worried about these 2 although if used correctly, can still contribute.

The thing that stresses me about Montreal is the quality they are stockpiling... Suzuki and Hutson are already elite, Caufield has progressed a lot, Slafkovský is coming into his own and still very young. Demidov is coming too. Guhle and several others could be key for them. They still have flaws as a team but we can't afford to have them to keep adding and progressing.

With Boston declining, Buffalo and Detroit not breaking out as teams, Tampa, Toronto and Florida having some guys getting older or having to make difficult cap decisions, Ottawa could have a path to becoming the best team in the Atlantic but need Montreal to stay behind to have the best chance/opportunity to the ECF and/or SCF

 

[Gil Gunderson]

Ehlers and Ekholm now injured in pretty much nothing games.

Rest the top guys now.

 

[PlayOn]

Just like Josh Norris has a career 18.1%, unfortunately, that line has 3 good converters. Caufield looks like he'll be a 16% guy in his prime, Suzuki has shot for 16+ the last 3 seasons and Slafkovský has shot 13+ the last 2 seasons and just turned 21 y/o

In comparison, our 3 best forwards have career 13.1% (Stutzle), 12.6% (Batherson) and 9.7% (Tkachuk). Cozens has 10% so far in his career and we traded our best finisher to get him, but in Norris case, his contract while being so injury-prone we had not much choice. What would be nice is if Staios could add a finisher this off-season. A guy like Perron actually, but much younger.



Me?



Dach is very close to a failed experiment, maybe the guy could be good/decent but just like with Josh Norris, missed way too much time already and unless you suddenly stop being injury prone (like it happened for Alfie), it's going to affect your career. Laine is an incredible PP weapon but overall ordinary at ES. Not too worried about these 2 although if used correctly, can still contribute.

The thing that stresses me about Montreal is the quality they are stockpiling... Suzuki and Hutson are already elite, Caufield has progressed a lot, Slafkovský is coming into his own and still very young. Demidov is coming too. Guhle and several others could be key for them. They still have flaws as a team but we can't afford to have them to keep adding and progressing.

With Boston declining, Buffalo and Detroit not breaking out as teams, Tampa, Toronto and Florida having some guys getting older or having to make difficult cap decisions, Ottawa could have a path to becoming the best team in the Atlantic but need Montreal to stay behind to have the best chance/opportunity to the ECF and/or SCF

I don’t really worry about other teams. The way I see it, all you can really do is create a prolonged window in which you are a legitimate contender. The reality is there will always be other elite teams to face, but if you are a high level contender you will find a way at some points. You’ll get beat too sometimes. That’s just how it goes.

If we’re relying on other teams sucking to get to the finals we probably aren’t gonna get there anyway. Or we will get there and lose.

 

[Bjornar Moxnes]

I don't know... Stars are my model for how to build a roster. Are they your Wings of the West? lol

Heiskanen, Harley and Lindell is incredible Top-3. Dumba has really declined so he's more depth now but Ceci was a good add. He's +15 in 28 games for them although he doesn't have good metrics. And their forward group is just awesome



My friend above must be happy!

Lindell as your #3 isn't a good thing. They had a great top 4 last year with Tanev though. I wouldn't say they're the wings of the west, but they're worse than the Jets and Avs and arguably the Wild.

 

[Gil Gunderson]

Lindell as your #3 isn't a good thing. They had a great top 4 last year with Tanev though. I wouldn't say they're the wings of the west, but they're worse than the Jets and Avs and arguably the Wild.

Dallas’ strength is that (when healthy) their 3rd line is better than most teams’ 2nd lines.

 

[Bjornar Moxnes]

Dallas’ strength is that (when healthy) their 3rd line is better than most teams’ 2nd lines.

I'm not denying that have an elite forward group, and goal tending, but their defencemen are suspect.

 

[Boud]

I don’t really worry about other teams. The way I see it, all you can really do is create a prolonged window in which you are a legitimate contender. The reality is there will always be other elite teams to face, but if you are a high level contender you will find a way at some points. You’ll get beat too sometimes. That’s just how it goes.

If we’re relying on other teams sucking to get to the finals we probably aren’t gonna get there anyway. Or we will get there and lose.

Exactly and there’s a lot of moving parts. If we did this exercise a year back or 2 years back you could’ve said the same thing about Buffalo and New York Rangers and you might think Boston will never fall back down to earth. Worrying about other teams is pointless and really creates a situation where you worry about something that might unfold in a completely different way.

Enjoy the moment. This team is good right now. A lot of good pieces, the core is very young, a good GM, a good coach, a good goalie. Things look good. Whatever happens with the other teams willl happen. Some teams we think will be good will end up being bad, and vis-versa. The Sens are in a good place overall. The franchise, the management, the ownership, the coaching and the players. Nothing to worry about.

 

[maclean]

In baseball they always say not to believe anything you see in April or September. Similarly, in hockey I would say not to believe anything you see in the first ten games or the last ten. Right now you have teams either playing out the string, or thinking ahead to the playoffs and subconsciously preserving their mental and physical energy for that. Streaks in the last ten games, either good or bad, disappear like mist come game one of the playoffs. This snoozer of a Habs-Leafs game is Exhibit A...

Yes, but Montreal still hasn't clinched, so you'd expect a bit more than 2 SOG in a period..

 

[JD1]

Just like Josh Norris has a career 18.1%, unfortunately, that line has 3 good converters. Caufield looks like he'll be a 16% guy in his prime, Suzuki has shot for 16+ the last 3 seasons and Slafkovský has shot 13+ the last 2 seasons and just turned 21 y/o

In comparison, our 3 best forwards have career 13.1% (Stutzle), 12.6% (Batherson) and 9.7% (Tkachuk). Cozens has 10% so far in his career and we traded our best finisher to get him, but in Norris case, his contract while being so injury-prone we had not much choice. What would be nice is if Staios could add a finisher this off-season. A guy like Perron actually, but much younger.



Me?



Dach is very close to a failed experiment, maybe the guy could be good/decent but just like with Josh Norris, missed way too much time already and unless you suddenly stop being injury prone (like it happened for Alfie), it's going to affect your career. Laine is an incredible PP weapon but overall ordinary at ES. Not too worried about these 2 although if used correctly, can still contribute.

The thing that stresses me about Montreal is the quality they are stockpiling... Suzuki and Hutson are already elite, Caufield has progressed a lot, Slafkovský is coming into his own and still very young. Demidov is coming too. Guhle and several others could be key for them. They still have flaws as a team but we can't afford to have them to keep adding and progressing.

With Boston declining, Buffalo and Detroit not breaking out as teams, Tampa, Toronto and Florida having some guys getting older or having to make difficult cap decisions, Ottawa could have a path to becoming the best team in the Atlantic but need Montreal to stay behind to have the best chance/opportunity to the ECF and/or SCF

What quality are they stockpiling?

They've bested expectations by a long shot and they're the 8th seed.

You're a data guy

At 5 on 5, they're bottom 5 in corsi against, goals against, expected goals against, scoring chances against and high danger chances against

Does that seem to you to be repeatable? Their points percentage is an anomaly. Go look at who their neighbour's are in those stat categories and they're all lottery contenders. And you predicted this? I think the preseason predictions pegged Montreal in the right neighborhood stats wise yet somehow they managed to get to the playoffs

What do you need to be successful in the playoffs? Center depth. They don't have it. Suzuki is posting a career year but then what? Defence depth. Hutson is 160 pounds and people here were saying jbd was undersized.

On defence, it's neat seeing the point totals that hutson is putting up, but is he ever going to be able to handle the grind of winning 16 games in the playoffs? No one before him at his size has done that. They have other D that are young and NHLers, do they have any potential high end top pair guys?

Strength on the wings. Said no one if you want to win a cup. Laine literally can't play at 5 on 5. 14 minutes a night. 14 5 on 5 points. They'll dump him if they can. Caufield is a good player. How will he stand up thru playoff hockey at 5 on 5? I remember the Camalleri days. It was awesome when he scored but the grind of the playoffs was too much. High hopes for Demidov and they say he's a first liner but if he is it knocks either Caufield or Slaf off the first line and they've got no centre depth.

Montreal is unquestionably a team that has outproduced points wise what the data says. That's not even debatable. The issue they have is strength in the wrong places and lack of strength where it is needed. And it won't be easy to fix either

 

[Tuna99]

Big day for Mitch Marner, his Mom dressed him for the game and he got the big goal. #dontdorebounds

 

[Beville]

It upsets me that as of 0845 ET the nhl standings still don’t show Detroit as being eliminated.

 

[BigRig4]

It upsets me that as of 0845 ET the nhl standings still don’t show Detroit as being eliminated.

They’re so slow. You’d think last two weeks of the season they’d get someone to update twice a day or something.

 

[Blanka]

Watching the game tonight, TO is beatable for sure
Green is going to have to make adjustment through out the series but I think we have a chance
(If the refs don't interfere)

"if the refs don't interfere"
I wouldn't worry about that.

 

[Senscore]

"if the refs don't interfere"
I wouldn't worry about that.

View attachment 1012861

We also have the 5th most minor penalties per game. Leafs 14th.

 

[Xspyrit]

I don’t really worry about other teams. The way I see it, all you can really do is create a prolonged window in which you are a legitimate contender. The reality is there will always be other elite teams to face, but if you are a high level contender you will find a way at some points. You’ll get beat too sometimes. That’s just how it goes.

If we’re relying on other teams sucking to get to the finals we probably aren’t gonna get there anyway. Or we will get there and lose.

I understand the POV but to me it is the "window of opportunity". If Tampa was still peaking (and maybe they will this year again) like 2019-2022, we'd have absolutely no chance to get out of the East. So while our window opens, we also need stars to align and have other teams (particularly in our division) to not be at their peak, and dit doesn't mean they won't be good teams! So in the 4-5 years, if all of Toronto, Tampa, Florida and Montreal don't peak, we might have a chance to find a path to the SCF.

Lindell as your #3 isn't a good thing.

Oh I personally see Lindell as quite good. He was strictly defensive before but even improved his transition

 

[PlayOn]

I understand the POV but to me it is the "window of opportunity". If Tampa was still peaking (and maybe they will this year again) like 2019-2022, we'd have absolutely no chance to get out of the East. So while our window opens, we also need stars to align and have other teams (particularly in our division) to not be at their peak, and dit doesn't mean they won't be good teams! So in the 4-5 years, if all of Toronto, Tampa, Florida and Montreal don't peak, we might have a chance to find a path to the SCF.



Oh I personally see Lindell as quite good. He was strictly defensive before but even improved his transition

I don’t disagree but that’s sort of why I said a prolonged window. I believe to win, for the most part, you need to have a team that’s capable of it for a long time so you get multiple kicks at the can.

Using Tampa as an example, their peak lasted about 3 years. In the third year they got beat but not until the SCF. Then they weren’t as good. I still think Tampa or Colorado could win this year, so both teams are contenders after taking a step back for a few years, but they also aren’t the unstoppable forces they once were either. Nobody is that good for that long. The reality is after a few runs the wear and tear on players bodies begins, some of the key guys age and while still good aren’t as elite anymore and then some younger teams come along.

Ottawa needs to give themselves a ~6 year window, otherwise you just need to dream of a St. Louis type of run - but that is more of a rarity.

And that’s all IF all works out for Montreal. They are still largely in the honeymoon phase of their rebuild and have a long way to go to be in that category. But so do we.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

 

[PlayOn]

I like that Guerin isn’t afraid to play him, smart GM.

 

[Xspyrit]

Exactly and there’s a lot of moving parts. If we did this exercise a year back or 2 years back you could’ve said the same thing about Buffalo and New York Rangers and you might think Boston will never fall back down to earth. Worrying about other teams is pointless and really creates a situation where you worry about something that might unfold in a completely different way.

Enjoy the moment. This team is good right now. A lot of good pieces, the core is very young, a good GM, a good coach, a good goalie. Things look good. Whatever happens with the other teams willl happen. Some teams we think will be good will end up being bad, and vis-versa. The Sens are in a good place overall. The franchise, the management, the ownership, the coaching and the players. Nothing to worry about.

That's a good point but to me is about the direct rivals thing. Maybe if you don't live in Toronto or Montreal, you might see it differently but I'd rather compete with Buffalo and NYR than Habs and Leafs. I would actually like to force feed them Senators success in the playoffs while they're playing golf...

I don’t disagree but that’s sort of why I said a prolonged window. I believe to win, for the most part, you need to have a team that’s capable of it for a long time so you get multiple kicks at the can.

Using Tampa as an example, their peak lasted about 3 years. In the third year they got beat but not until the SCF. Then they weren’t as good. I still think Tampa or Colorado could win this year, so both teams are contenders after taking a step back for a few years, but they also aren’t the unstoppable forces they once were either. Nobody is that good for that long. The reality is after a few runs the wear and tear on players bodies begins, some of the key guys age and while still good aren’t as elite anymore and then some younger teams come along.

Ottawa needs to give themselves a ~6 year window, otherwise you just need to dream of a St. Louis type of run - but that is more of a rarity.

And that’s all IF all works out for Montreal. They are still largely in the honeymoon phase of their rebuild and have a long way to go to be in that category. But so do we.

All good points too, note that for me it's also very related to the direct rivals factor but also think you need to have the right timing for a path. Like in 2017, we weren't strong contenders but the team peaked at the right time on the right path and if Pittsburgh was just slightly worse, we could have made the SCF and maybe win the Cup.

 

[NyQuil]

Montreal sputtering a bit.

It upsets me that as of 0845 ET the nhl standings still don’t show Detroit as being eliminated.

They have a few excellent posters over there, but in general, this is what I think of their organization:

 

[Xspyrit]

What quality are they stockpiling?

They've bested expectations by a long shot and they're the 8th seed.

You're a data guy

Yes so that's why I look at facts.

- They made the SCF just 4 years ago in 2021. Many of their fans wanted a rebuild already but it was one last kick at the can with Price/Weber and it worked. The following season they fell apart, similar to us in 2017-18 so they decided to rebuild (again, similar to us) and they traded several vets plus revamped the whole management and coaching. Comparatively, the current season for them was like our 2020-21 season, the 4th season of both rebuilds.

- If you compare them in 2024-25 vs Ottawa in 2020-21, they look way ahead. our leading scorer had 36 pts in 56 games and Connor Brown was our best goal scorer and 2nd best forward. Suzuki is currently 12th in points league wide, Caufield is 10th in goals and Hutson is 6th in points among D-men and will win the Calder despite the fact that Celibrini is a stud. They have a 0.550 P% while we had 0.455 P% in the weak North division. They will make the playoffs in a much harder set up.

So that's the thing, if you're comparing with Ottawa, you need to have this in mind. Note that I was not trying to compare (only compare the shooting % of some players)

At 5 on 5, they're bottom 5 in corsi against, goals against, expected goals against, scoring chances against and high danger chances against

Does that seem to you to be repeatable? Their points percentage is an anomaly. Go look at who their neighbour's are in those stat categories and they're all lottery contenders. And you predicted this? I think the preseason predictions pegged Montreal in the right neighborhood stats wise yet somehow they managed to get to the playoffs

I just mentioned that their rebuild was trending well and that they would start breathing down our necks, which they did almost all season. I didn't predict that they would make the playoffs this season, I thought they were going to be a threat more next season. They are outplaying their own expectations sure, but the problem as I said is more that some of their players are emerging as better than expected. Suzuki is better than I thought, I used to laugh at people who would compare him to Patrice Bergeron and even argued with Habs fans that we had Josh Norris and now it looks silly. Lane Hutson is a rookie and is breaking all-time records. Caufield is close to 40 goals and I thought he would be very unidimensional but it seems that his defense also improved big time. Etc

What do you need to be successful in the playoffs? Center depth. They don't have it. Suzuki is posting a career year but then what? Defence depth. Hutson is 160 pounds and people here were saying jbd was undersized.

Career year? Same argument that some Leafs fans were having with Stutzle and his 90 pts season, I was like "do you realize the guy was just 20-21 y/o?". Suzuki is 25 y/o and had 77 pts last year, safe to say he has entered his prime and it will look like this. Thankfully Staios was faster and went after Cozens because a #2 C is what they are missing right now. They have a plethora of 3rd line centers (Dvorak, Newhook, Dach, Evans) and will have the luxury to choose who to keep. They have a promising young pivot developing in Hage and some other good C prospects like Kapanen and Beck

And please, a size argument regarding Hutson? It must suck to have guys like Makar and Quinn Hughes too.

On defence, it's neat seeing the point totals that hutson is putting up, but is he ever going to be able to handle the grind of winning 16 games in the playoffs? No one before him at his size has done that. They have other D that are young and NHLers, do they have any potential high end top pair guys.
Strength on the wings. Said no one if you want to win a cup. Laine literally can't play at 5 on 5. 14 minutes a night. 14 5 on 5 points. They'll dump him if they can. Caufield is a good player. How will he stand up thru playoff hockey at 5 on 5? I remember the Camalleri days. It was awesome when he scored but the grind of the playoffs was too much. High hopes for Demidov and they say he's a first liner but if he is it knocks either Caufield or Slaf off the first line and they've got no centre depth.

Montreal is unquestionably a team that has outproduced points wise what the data says. That's not even debatable. The issue they have is strength in the wrong places and lack of strength where it is needed. And it won't be easy to fix either

ok not going to reply to all points but my point was this :

Suzuki (25) : 12th in scoring among NHL forwards
Caufield (24) : 10th in goals among NHL forwards
Slafkovský (21) : compare his 19 and 20 y/o seasons with Tkachuk and Stutzle
Demidov (19) : seen as the best prospect not in the NHL yet
Hutson (21) : 6th in points among NHL D-men, will win the Calder
Guhle (23) : seen as a top defensive guy already
Fowler (20) : probably the best goalie prospect in the world

Some solid vets like Anderson, Gallagher, Matheson, Carrier, Montembeault and a top prospect pool too with Demidov, Hage, Fowler, Reinbacher, Beck, Roy, Mailloux, Engström, etc

The point is they have developed some pretty good young players, still have an excellent pool so all this needs to stop because they might become a big problem for us to get out of the Atlantic.

 

[Alex1234]

"if the refs don't interfere"
I wouldn't worry about that.

View attachment 1012861

Regular season means nothing

 

[Masked]

"if the refs don't interfere"
I wouldn't worry about that.

View attachment 1012861

What's the red number? Average number of Leaf fans arrested per home game?

 

[bicboi64]

Mollie Walker (@MollieeWalkerr)

#NYR Calvin de Haan walked past us as he was about to get on the ice and commented on how it’s all finally over. He said something to the effect of, ‘How about the way I’ve been treated here? It’s f***ed.’ We asked if he wanted to talk, he said yes and that he would be “very transparent.”

xcancel.com

C'mon home next season Calvin.

De Haan at league minimum wouldn't be a bad option as a 7th D

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

It will be very interesting to see the impact of this rule change.
As more CHL players leave late in their CHL career for the NCAA.
The NCAA will get better, older and less young players that could have had a spot will lose it.
The CHL may get younger attracting Junior A players and USHL players who would have been looking for a path to the NCAA