Around the NHL — Episode XLXVII

[Micklebot]

Not having Norris & Pinto would probably have been a large factor in that scoring chance differential.

The idea of moving Norris to get out of his contract does have appeal, but if he’s gone, we’ll need a good, viable replacement. Right now, one of our strengths is having 3 good centers. Pinto could move up, but we’d still need another center. It sounds easy enough to move him to fee up some salary, but ending up with an equivalent (or better) replacement is the much more challenging & harder to execute part.

Moving Norris for spare parts would be a mistake imo. He's a solid two way forward, getting well above average QOC and 39% oz starts. We don't really have anyone that can absorb those mins especially since Pinto is already getting tough mins, and you aren't getting someone for cheap.

 

[Beech]

Moving Norris for spare parts would be a mistake imo. He's a solid two way forward, getting well above average QOC and 39% oz starts. We don't really have anyone that can absorb those mins especially since Pinto is already getting tough mins, and you aren't getting someone for cheap.

2015: White, Chlapic
2016: Brown, Dahlin
2017: Bowers
2018: Gruden
2019: Lodin, Kastelic
2020: Daoust
2021: Ostapchuk
2022: Pettersson, Halliday, Dyck
2023: Beckner

There is a price to be paid for Melnyk/Dorion Those two were not free.

3 success at center (Pinto, Greig, Stutzle). 14 misses. Even Greig is hardly a full time center. 14 f***ing misses. Granted only 6 of the misses were in R1 and R2.

The Euge and Pete from Orleans are the gifts that keep on giving.

 

[Micklebot]

2015: White, Chlapic
2016: Brown, Dahlin
2017: Bowers
2018: Gruden
2019: Lodin, Kastelic
2020: Daoust
2021: Ostapchuk
2022: Pettersson, Halliday, Dyck
2023: Beckner

There is a price to be paid for Melnyk/Dorion Those two were not free.

3 success at center (Pinto, Greig, Stutzle). 14 misses. Even Greig is hardly a full time center. 14 f***ing misses. Granted only 6 of the misses were in R1 and R2.

The Euge and Pete from Orleans are the gifts that keep on giving.

The expected hit rate after the first round is less than 6%, it's a bit better in just the 2nd round, but nothing like the 1st Rd.. The reality is that outside of the first round, our expected hits at C was less than 1 based on the picks we had, and we should have found about 3 centers in the first round.

That's based on league wide data set on drafts 2000 to 2010 for what what teams should expect in terms of chance of hitting.

Our drafting was average, nothing more, nothing less, though I'd argue we made some avoidable mistakes in the first round that kept us from being above average.

 

[Golden_Jet]

2015: White, Chlapic
2016: Brown, Dahlin
2017: Bowers
2018: Gruden
2019: Lodin, Kastelic
2020: Daoust
2021: Ostapchuk
2022: Pettersson, Halliday, Dyck
2023: Beckner

There is a price to be paid for Melnyk/Dorion Those two were not free.

3 success at center (Pinto, Greig, Stutzle). 14 misses. Even Greig is hardly a full time center. 14 f***ing misses. Granted only 6 of the misses were in R1 and R2.

The Euge and Pete from Orleans are the gifts that keep on giving.

How does that compare to expected for the NHL drafting by round?

 

[Senovision]

I think Crosby will be traded to Colorado to end his career with Mackinnon.
So my sources say. Lol

 

[BondraTime]

That Sharks draft is looking foolish. Celebrini, Dickinson and Chernyshov looking like absolute darts

At the time, and even more so looking back, it was very strange to me teams were passing on Chernyshov, especially considering who was being taken. Mark Stone-like

 

[Xspyrit]

That Sharks draft is looking foolish. Celebrini, Dickinson and Chernyshov looking like absolute darts

At the time, and even more so looking back, it was very strange to me teams were passing on Chernyshov, especially considering who was being taken. Mark Stone-like

Damn, not as good as Eliassons types of course but I wish we had a prospect like that... 10 goals 18 points in 6 OHL games, wtf?

He's not small at all and doesn't look like uni-dimensional or something like that. Stud in the making. That 2024 Sharks draft looks like it will be legendary

 

[BigRig4]

That Sharks draft is looking foolish. Celebrini, Dickinson and Chernyshov looking like absolute darts

At the time, and even more so looking back, it was very strange to me teams were passing on Chernyshov, especially considering who was being taken. Mark Stone-like

Their 2023 draft looks strong too.

 

[Beech]

How does that compare to expected for the NHL drafting by round?

who cares.

Why care about the league averag? The league average is bigger than we are, financially. Is in a warmer local. In a lower tax environment. And so clumsiness at the draft table, can be compensated for.

We are not them. We are not the league average. Not in any metric.

And so, we have one OPTION; DRAFT, f***ing well.

They can miss, we cannot.

And so when in a rebuild period, when in a 17 year total period, you are in the bottom 5 on average (wins/loses). When your average finish the last 17 years has been something like 8th to 10th, FROM THE BOTTOM. You better make hay.

We better be the Green Bay Packers and not the Chicago bears. One team has had nearly 65 years of quarterbacks, O-Line, receivers, Defense.. The other DICK. One has played 40 more playoff games.

14 misses, 3 hits! 9 in picks r1 and r2 were centers...3 made it.. realistically 2. Greig is not the second coming of Austin Mathews.

In this city, that means death. 2015-2023...9 years... 3 centers, more like 2 1/2 centers!!!! in a rebuild era.

Now we have Norris injured...again. He was not ours to begin with.

This team is now paper thin. FYOUS will be TYOUS.. for two or three.. and YOUS is most likely YOMS as in Years of moderate success. It relies exclusively on one draft year, 2020....

The Euge walks through that door in early 2003.. it was like a curse on the amature side... Now every draft year is a plague of locusts.

17 years of Murray/Dorion and 21 years of Melnyk. We are a solid 3-5 years away from paying that off.

 

[Micklebot]

who cares.

Why care about the league averag? The league average is bigger than we are, financially. Is in a warmer local. In a lower tax environment. And so clumsiness at the draft table, can be compensated for.

We are not them. We are not the league average. Not in any metric.

And so, we have one OPTION; DRAFT, f***ing well.

They can miss, we cannot.

And so when in a rebuild period, when in a 17 year total period, you are in the bottom 5 on average (wins/loses). When your average finish the last 17 years has been something like 8th to 10th, FROM THE BOTTOM. You better make hay.

We better be the Green Bay Packers and not the Chicago bears. One team has had nearly 65 years of quarterbacks, O-Line, receivers, Defense.. The other DICK. One has played 40 more playoff games.

14 misses, 3 hits! 9 in picks r1 and r2 were centers...3 made it.. realistically 2. Greig is not the second coming of Austin Mathews.

In this city, that means death. 2015-2023...9 years... 3 centers, more like 2 1/2 centers!!!! in a rebuild era.

Now we have Norris injured...again. He was not ours to begin with.

This team is now paper thin. FYOUS will be TYOUS.. for two or three.. and YOUS is most likely YOMS as in Years of moderate success. It relies exclusively on one draft year, 2020....

The Euge walks through that door in early 2003.. it was like a curse on the amature side... Now every draft year is a plague of locusts.

17 years of Murray/Dorion and 21 years of Melnyk. We are a solid 3-5 years away from paying that off.

Right, because "draft well" is just a choice you can make, and the rest of the league save a few are just blissfully unaware that Beech cracked the code, and the answer is just "draft better"... Shhhh, don't tell anyone, wouldn't want to lose that potential edge when everyone realizes they can just draft well....

 

[Beech]

The expected hit rate after the first round is less than 6%, it's a bit better in just the 2nd round, but nothing like the 1st Rd.. The reality is that outside of the first round, our expected hits at C was less than 1 based on the picks we had, and we should have found about 3 centers in the first round.

That's based on league wide data set on drafts 2000 to 2010 for what what teams should expect in terms of chance of hitting.

Our drafting was average, nothing more, nothing less, though I'd argue we made some avoidable mistakes in the first round that kept us from being above average.

32 teams, rounds 1 is 32 players, 8-10 are centers.

so say 50% success.. 4-5 make it.

50% are "quality"... so 2-3 become legit #1s or #2s or #3s... The league needs 96 to fill lines 1, 2 and 3... 3 in anyone year..... so 45 in any one career cycle (assuming no injury or performance tail off).

leaving the league needing 51 to fill lines1, 2 and 3.

at 6%..and 15 years.. needing 567 centers chosen, 57 in anyone year. Round 2-6, Thus 11 picks a round. And it assumes r3,4,5 and 6 are just as fruitful as r2.

Some number is amiss somewhere Mick.

and all of this assumes perfect health and little age related drop off.

Either r1 is way more productive, or r2 is far closer to r1. Either case, the Sens and their 9 picks in r1 and r2 should have been at the 3 you spoke about, if not 4.

In which case, the addition of Norris, should have meant a wealth of centers.

I hardly see this team as center wealthy. In fact, as we move forward, Norris' injuries. Pinto's inconsistency. Greig's failure to stick as a center. Can and will likely injure this team in the coming 2-3 years.

If this team is average, why has 2007-2025 left them 4th from the bottom in wins/loses/points and 10-12 from the bottom in playoff games played.

There is nothing average.. They are well below. And there is a price for it.

 

[Golden_Jet]

who cares.

Why care about the league averag? The league average is bigger than we are, financially. Is in a warmer local. In a lower tax environment. And so clumsiness at the draft table, can be compensated for.

We are not them. We are not the league average. Not in any metric.

You don’t know if Sens are league average, as you said who cares.

 

[Micklebot]

32 teams, rounds 1 is 32 players, 8-10 are centers.

so say 50% success.. 4-5 make it.

50% are "quality"... so 2-3 become legit #1s or #2s or #3s... The league needs 96 to fill lines 1, 2 and 3... 3 in anyone year..... so 45 in any one career cycle (assuming no injury or performance tail off).

leaving the league needing 51 to fill lines1, 2 and 3.

at 6%..and 15 years.. needing 567 centers chosen, 57 in anyone year. Round 2-6, Thus 11 picks a round. And it assumes r3,4,5 and 6 are just as fruitful as r2.

Some number is amiss somewhere Mick.

and all of this assumes perfect health and little age related drop off.

Either r1 is way more productive, or r2 is far closer to r1. Either case, the Sens and their 9 picks in r1 and r2 should have been at the 3 you spoke about, if not 4.

In which case, the addition of Norris, should have meant a wealth of centers.

I hardly see this team as center wealthy. In fact, as we move forward, Norris' injuries. Pinto's inconsistency. Greig's failure to stick as a center. Can and will likely injure this team in the coming 2-3 years.

If this team is average, why has 2007-2025 left them 4th from the bottom in wins/loses/points and 10-12 from the bottom in playoff games played.

There is nothing average.. They are well below. And there is a price for it.

Before you go on a rant about how i'm wrong, you should probably look to understand what the assumptions are.

What's quality? You set the bar at White not being quality, so lets take a look at white as a benchmark. Over 300 gp, .35pts per game. Not quality, according to you.

Ok, so using that benchmark, lets look at his draft year, often cited as one of the best drafts of all time.

2015. 211 picks, 51 of them centers. 4 top 15 in the 1st round, 4 in the 2nd half of the first round, 43 in the rest. Top 15 forwards tend to hit at about 70%, 16-30 picks at about 40%, the rest at ~6%,

11 centers that year have 300+ games and >.35 pts per game, in one of the best drafts of all time. My numbers predicted roughly 7 hits, so off by a bit, but the % I quoted was for forwards, so it's possible (and likely imo) that centers tend to hit at a slightly higher rate.

Off by 4 in an all time draft, not bad, and I showed my work unlike some around here.

 

[Agent Zuuuub]

parekh had a slow start but his stat line is now

GP46 G26 A48 Pt74

thats blue chip star forward numbers

still not good enough for team canada though lol

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

parekh had a slow start but his stat line is now

GP46 G26 A48 Pt74

thats blue chip star forward numbers

still not good enough for team canada though lol

He was focused on improving his d play; He has improved there as well and still a work in progress. Very talented inside the opponents blue line

on pace for over 100 pts and a +40

he was on pace for over 100 last year but dropped off a little and had 96;

OF NOTE
He's on pace for more pims than Yakemchuk.. which has the Sens scouts wanting a do over... there could be a trade coming.

 

[DrEasy]

He was focused on improving his d play; He has improved there as well and still a work in progress. Very talented inside the opponents blue line

on pace for over 100 pts and a +40

he was on pace for over 100 last year but dropped off a little and had 96;

OF NOTE
He's on pace for more pims than Yakemchuk.. which has the Sens scouts wanting a do over... there could be a trade coming.

Smartest guy in the room syndrome struck again.