If he walks for nothing they are royalty screwed - Marner has played the Cap and salary thing as well as anyone and he’ll be a Paul Kariya type for salary vs impact/playoff production
Salary going up he’ll get $11 million a year and Toronto will pay it
But it’ll hurt after Ottawa sweeps them on their own ice after Ottawa wins the Atlantic and beats Toronto i. The 1st Round
There is only one clean solution to the Marner situation and that is them winning the cup, or coming within a couple games.
Sign him now and come up short and your stuck with another massive contract while the media and fans run back all their justified criticism, only with another years worth of vitriol behind it. Then proceed to enter next year with the same two cotton balls leading the team and all the doubt following you like a bad smell.
Wait and come up short and you're facing the same criticism and are forced to wade through it and either sign him to a massive deal with FA looming or let him walk for nothing and use it to signal a new direction.
In that situation the only way to save face will be to overpay and win the UFA sweepstakes, meaning big money and long terms to Ehlers and probably Mangiapane. We all know how bad UFA desperation is as modus operandi for any team, it doesn't work and it can cripple you for years.
It would be so much easier if the leafs were mediocre right now and could justify trading Marner to a team like Cbus for a haul. It's really a shame that being a good regular season team yet such a pathetic playoff team creates such a debilitating generation long conundrum for certain franchises.