I think you mistake a bad pick and bad player as being the same thing. My opinion is that when you draft a guy #2 overall and he's not a star by his fifth season, it's probably a bad pick, even more so when the guy who went right after him and who we all spent months debating about looks well on his way to another 90 point season.
It gets back to the whole drafting a project vs. a more ready made thing. How much better will QB have to be than Stutzle when he reaches this mythical peak that guys like Emerson talk about that it comes close to making up what they have missed out from this bad pick? Although I think the truth is the Kings expected a lot more by now. The Kings management tells us now they drafted a long-term project with a #2 overall pick while at the same time trying to contend in a window with guys in their late 30's? They are incompetent, but are they really that incompetent?
On the other point, I did try and separate the players into a group that the Kings realistically could have taken (Stutzle, Caufield, Boldy) vs. one that were drafted right after but the Kings had no expectation of drafting (Seider, Sanderson, Raymond) to make it a more accurate representation
I may be dense, but I still just think there are too many variables to call something a bad pick or bad player.
Is Byfield yielding yet what I hoped for, especially for a second overall? Absolutely not. And I'm disappointed in his season so far. I was hoping he would have bridged the gap. And he's not put it together yet.
But I attribute a lot of that to how he's been handled. We won't be able to experience an alternate universe of 'what if the Kings took Stutzle instead?' I'm not delusional to think Byfield would be definitely better, but I think Stutzle playing in an environment that complements his style of play better can't be overlooked.
After being played in a grinder role at center and struggled, he was moved to wing, upped his game, and got comfortable and was winning battles. Then they move him back to center and has to play the ice differently now. Should a 2nd overall pick be more flexible? In an ideal world, sure, but my general philosophy is - if you see a player beginning to thrive and grow in some conditions, keep those conditions.
Do I think Stutzle would be putting up more points on the Kings than Byfield? Certainly. Do I think he'd be at 23 points? Honestly no. I think the Kings would still be putting him either at Kopitar's wing or on the second line, and we'd hear Hiller talk about how points are nice, but you need to play defense, like he does with Clarke. So, maybe at around 16ish points and still more one-dimensional. Like the player everyone hoped to get out of Kevin Fiala.
Maybe that makes him a bad pick for the Kings, but until they have a more robust and flexible approach to development, a larger number of picks are going to be "bad picks."