Around the League 2020/2021 Thread | Stanley Cup Final Edition

[vancityluongo]

Suter to Tampa at the league minimum please, just for the outrage

 

[Melvin]

I feel like recapture was always a very slim chance with these 2 guys. They came to play for their home town team to try and bring a championship. I have a hard time thinking that they'd actively choose to tank their 'childhood' team by retiring early instead of LTIR like all the other players caught in the similar situation.

I also felt Suter wasn't way off his 7.5 cap hit and don't think it's that easy to replace him. Using a player's performance this year as a determining point for impactful decisions is super risky in my opinion.

It's not about this year, it's about the projection. It's ALWAYS about projections. Do you project Suter to be a 7.5M player for the next four years? Or maybe something like 6M next year, 4M the year after, etc...? Whatever your numbers are, this is the key to evaluating the transaction.

If you do feel like he'll be a 7.5M player for the next four years (or close to it,) then it is indeed a stupid buyout. The Wild obviously don't feel this way.

There's a very decent chance that in years 3 & 4, these two players would be Eriksson'ed anyway, so it's effectively no change in circumstance. but 10M in savings today is always worth more than 10M in savings 4 years from now.

 

[Vector]

Suter to Tampa at the league minimum please, just for the outrage

I honestly expect this to happen.

 

[vadim sharifijanov]

Would love Suter on a fair deal

lol 1,000% we're going after parise

 

[bossram]

lol 1,000% we're going after parise

He's not coming to Vancouver. 0% he'd even want to.

 

[Vector]

Neither of these players are signing with the Canucks. What they can do is alter the marketplace for other targets. Potentially lowering asking prices either via trade or signing. Two high profile (if rapidly depreciating) players are a big thing.

 

[WishfulThinker]

It's not about this year, it's about the projection. It's ALWAYS about projections. Do you project Suter to be a 7.5M player for the next four years? Or maybe something like 6M next year, 4M the year after, etc...? Whatever your numbers are, this is the key to evaluating the transaction.

If you do feel like he'll be a 7.5M player for the next four years (or close to it,) then it is indeed a stupid buyout. The Wild obviously don't feel this way.

There's a very decent chance that in years 3 & 4, these two players would be Eriksson'ed anyway, so it's effectively no change in circumstance. but 10M in savings today is always worth more than 10M in savings 4 years from now.

Strange of you to assume I wasn't thinking about projections...Either way, my point was that I'm personally not weighting this year heavily to determine the projection of his career in his final 4 years. I think he should most likely be a 6M player for the next 2 years and then probably be LTIR/3.5M type of player for the last two. But I generally am very biased towards defenders that can actually defend.

 

[Breakers]

as opposed to keeping them and paying them full pop to be crap?. not just that they avoid re capture which is huge.

Needed to be done. Good move for Minny

And yet they are still overreacting to the expansion becuase of past mistakes.

 

[Melvin]

Strange of you to assume I wasn't thinking about projections...Either way, my point was that I'm personally not weighting this year heavily to determine the projection of his career in his final 4 years. I think he should most likely be a 6M player for the next 2 years and then probably be LTIR/3.5M type of player for the last two. But I generally am very biased towards defenders that can actually defend.

I didn't assume anything, I was asking you a question. The Wild are basically making the bet that you are wrong. We'll see.

 

[krutovsdonut]

i guess minny decided to take their medicine sooner than later. certainly helps that they get a parting of the seas this year.

 

[timw33]

i guess minny decided to take their medicine sooner than later. certainly helps that they get a parting of the seas this year.

The effects of a change in culture/identity and a clean end of the Parise/Suter era should not be undervalued.

For all we know those two could have been butting heads with management over their roles going forward or disagree with the plan for the team by not being willing to waive NMCs for expansion, etc.

But when you look back on the Parise/Suter era, it's been largely fruitless and its clear its time to change who leads the culture.

 

[krutovsdonut]

The effects of a change in culture/identity and a clean end of the Parise/Suter era should not be undervalued.

For all we know those two could have been butting heads with management over their roles going forward or disagree with the plan for the team by not being willing to waive NMCs for expansion, etc.

But when you look back on the Parise/Suter era, it's been largely fruitless and its clear its time to change who leads the culture.

i think it is probably as simple as the gm explaining to the owner that the franchise is in a holding pattern where it cannot afford to field a competitive team until those two contracts are flushed. the kaprisov situation makes that clear.

the risk one or both of them retired and triggered recapture may also have been a concern.

 

[timw33]

i think it is probably as simple as the gm explaining to the owner that the franchise is in a holding pattern where it cannot afford to field a competitive team until those two contracts are flushed. the kaprisov situation makes that clear.

the risk one or both of them retired and triggered recapture may also have been a concern.

I was looking into the recapture penalty and from what I could find the penalties for them retiring anytime in next 3 years would be similar or a bit less than the buyout penalties over a similar timeline (except for next year where there is a clear immediate benefit of $10MM).

I'm sure someone is crunching the very specific buyout vs recap penalty scenarios as we speak though.

 

[StreetHawk]

I was looking into the recapture penalty and from what I could find the penalties for them retiring anytime in next 3 years would be similar or a bit less than the buyout penalties over a similar timeline (except for next year where there is a clear immediate benefit of $10MM).

I'm sure someone is crunching the very specific buyout vs recap penalty scenarios as we speak though.

There is $10 mill in salary left on their $98 mill contracts. So they made $88 mill so far.

so if we take their $7.5 mill cap hit times 4 is $30 mill. Less $10 mill in cash that’s $20 mill difference. So that would be $5 mill per in recapture.

mid they got through another year it would be $22.5 mill cap hit left but $4 mill in cash. $18.5 mill in recapture for an average of $6.15 mill per.

overall recapture was better for them but with the Seattle ED that complicated things for them.

In the end these deals were not $98 mill for 13 years but designed really to be closer to $94 mill over 10 years. Difference of almost $2 mill in AAV per season.

 

[sting101]

And yet they are still overreacting to the expansion becuase of past mistakes.

why make the same mistake twice and 3yrs is a big difference in what Suter has become as a player. The owner saves over 6 million dollars in real money and they get to keep Dumba as well as Soucy or another forward depending how they want to structure the protection list.

 

[Canucks LB]

I would love to have Suter

 

[Breakers]

why make the same mistake twice and 3yrs is a big difference in what Suter has become as a player. The owner saves over 6 million dollars in real money and they get to keep Dumba as well as Soucy or another forward depending how they want to structure the protection list.

so a team is suddenly obsessed with protecting Matt Dumba at all costs.

seems to have worked perfect.

 

[krutovsdonut]

maybe the fix is in and suter and parise will resign with minny on cheap deals july 1st.

 

[canuckking1]

 

[TeddyBare]

I'm sorry, but you can't possibly think this is strictly about recapture when Suter is a very serviceable d-man

 

[Hit the post]

"Warriors. All of them."

These dudes were the Warriors!: