OT: Around Hockey and the NHL

[Renopucker]

What a first period by the Sabres last night against the Avs. I tuned out after that but I'm sure nothing happened, Sabres had that game in the bag.

AVS goaltending is their Achilles heel. Same as Carolina.

 

[Felonious Python]

 

[LightningStrikes]

He’s the Rangers’ captain so JBB has to trade for him, it’s a rule, right?

 

[Felonious Python]

He’s the Rangers’ captain so JBB has to trade for him, it’s a rule, right?

Verbeek ended up getting him.

I figure it's sort of like Kuch seeing someone else score an empty net goal. There's a bit of a wistful sigh, but ultimately they're glad someone they know got it done.

 

[Felonious Python]

Did you also know that Florida has only 17 local rinks?

Florida Rinks

www.sahofhockey.org

1 rink for every 1.35m Floridians.

 

[Renopucker]

Yeah, very localized obviously. But I had 7 within 20 miles of my house in Westchase before I moved in 2016.

In the 80’s, we had to drive to Colonial Drive in ORL for a 160X60 sheet, before Sunblades came on line a few years later.

 

[Felonious Python]

Jeff Vinik is on the executive committee.

 

[Felonious Python]

I've literally just been thinking about how soccer has Red Bull and Man City groups that buy a bunch of teams all over the world, and kind of filter players up the ladder. It's pretty much a non-starter right now for hockey.

I mean, an owner could have a team in the NHL and another in Sweden, for example, but outside of maybe sharing scouting and some business expertise, there isn't too much benefit, I don't think. The game is absolutely tiny when you compare it to soccer, or the potential for growth in basketball.

It makes sense for soccer teams to truly scout worldwide, even getting involved in setting up academies in Africa, etc.

With the NHL draft, there's a disincentive for owners to use their own capital to 'create' more players, and the game is already too expensive in the US. In the pre-draft era, major junior teams were sponsored by NHL teams, and the more money you spent, the more access to prospects you had.

The NBA makes sense to grow internationally because the cost of entry is so low. They basically just need a ball and hoop.

As I've pointed out, the entire state of Florida has 17 local rinks. The business model of this apparently isn't appealing enough to the world's leader in GDP. You can only really 'grow' the game in hyper-specific markets that can afford $30 sticks.

Maybe the game would organically explode in popularity in, like, the Philippines, but because they don't have the economy, we'll never know.

 

[DrMartinVanNostrand]

I've literally just been thinking about how soccer has Red Bull and Man City groups that buy a bunch of teams all over the world, and kind of filter players up the ladder. It's pretty much a non-starter right now for hockey.

There's no way to make this happen. What's the age at which European veterans can come to the NHL without draft strings attached? There's no drafting in soccer, so you can have someone who owns a club in Brazil and a couple in Europe (in different leagues) and kinda use a "stepping stone" process with them. (I'll brush aside the enormous unpopularity that these models have with those clubs whose fans feel they've been reduced to stepping stones as that's its own topic.) Chelsea is basically doing this with Strasbourg, both owned by Clearlake Capital.

The only thing that isn't seamless about the process there is that, in a technical manner of speaking, the players are signed to contracts with those clubs, they aren't signed to contracts with the overarching ownership group. Red Bull wanted to promote Haaland up the ladder from Salzburg to Leipzig, Haaland wanted to go further than that and eventually transferred to Dortmund instead; that's just one example. Players have more control over their movement in Europe than they do here, they can be threatened with all kinds of internal "punishment" (being left out of match day squads, sent to train with the U-23 team, stuff like that) but they can't be forced to submit to a transfer, they can reject any transfer offer the club has otherwise accepted.

Regardless, to bring this back to hockey, as you say there's both a lack of players and also just no viable way to make such a method work. If Vinik bought Jokerit in Finland, there's no real way he could ever turn Jokerit into a pipeline feeding the Lightning. But to be clear, given that other sports in this country follow similar models to the NHL, there's no way an NFL, NBA, or MLB team could ever hope to do this either. Just in general it's a non-starter of an idea in North America.

 

[Felonious Python]

There's no way to make this happen. What's the age at which European veterans can come to the NHL without draft strings attached? There's no drafting in soccer, so you can have someone who owns a club in Brazil and a couple in Europe (in different leagues) and kinda use a "stepping stone" process with them. (I'll brush aside the enormous unpopularity that these models have with those clubs whose fans feel they've been reduced to stepping stones as that's its own topic.) Chelsea is basically doing this with Strasbourg, both owned by Clearlake Capital.

The only thing that isn't seamless about the process there is that, in a technical manner of speaking, the players are signed to contracts with those clubs, they aren't signed to contracts with the overarching ownership group. Red Bull wanted to promote Haaland up the ladder from Salzburg to Leipzig, Haaland wanted to go further than that and eventually transferred to Dortmund instead; that's just one example. Players have more control over their movement in Europe than they do here, they can be threatened with all kinds of internal "punishment" (being left out of match day squads, sent to train with the U-23 team, stuff like that) but they can't be forced to submit to a transfer, they can reject any transfer offer the club has otherwise accepted.

Regardless, to bring this back to hockey, as you say there's both a lack of players and also just no viable way to make such a method work. If Vinik bought Jokerit in Finland, there's no real way he could ever turn Jokerit into a pipeline feeding the Lightning. But to be clear, given that other sports in this country follow similar models to the NHL, there's no way an NFL, NBA, or MLB team could ever hope to do this either. Just in general it's a non-starter of an idea in North America.

The NBA might be the closest. Their drafts are two rounds, so if the NBA expands their minor league system, there's room for more international signings.

The lack of real transfer fees in hockey also disincentivizes European teams from expanding their own efforts. Why would organizations in Europe really start to ramp up their own production and development if they get a flat fee of maybe 250k?

If they start seeing potential multi-million dollar transfers, then you'll see the Norways, Belgiums, and Netherlands start popping off.

 

[Felonious Python]

It seems that the Rangers-Sabres game tonight has some kind of added intangible weight to it, like whoever loses is going to have a major shakeup.

Where I think Buffalo goes wrong is that they keep hiring first-time managers. While I like new people getting a chance, being able to lift a team out of the league basement is a very specific, and difficult, task.

Speaking of soccer, that might be the way to learn about building an NHL team. If you win in a lower league in Europe, you generally move up, but are now likely struggling for survival against better competition. It's the teams that keep building, and continually hitting higher gears, that are the ones worth learning from.

 

[Felonious Python]

from a competitive/growing the game standpoint, this seems to make sense. Hockey Canada and USA Hockey probably wouldn't like it.

 

[StammerHammer]

Time for Dino Ciccarelli to lace em up.

 

[Felonious Python]

Time for Dino Ciccarelli to lace em up.

The pool of potential players is much larger if maternal lines are considered.

An Irish team could probably do pretty well, although a Republic of Ireland team can't compete, as they don't have any rinks.

Why isn't the international NHL fan base growing?

It's not what owners may want to hear, but maybe the best way to aggressively grow the game is to abolish the draft. Owners then have to invest significant money into creating more players.

With all the success TB and FLA have had, it hasn't resulted in a bunch of rinks popping up.

edit: I'm thinking maybe they could do a hybrid, where teams that invest in essentially non-producing NHL countries (Belgium, Netherlands, Denmark, Norway, Austria, etc.) bypass the draft, and get exclusivity to those players until some threshold is reached. Then they become a draft eligible country. It won't do a dang thing to build rinks at home, but it's better than nothing.

 

[LordStanlersCup]

The pool of potential players is much larger if maternal lines are considered.

An Irish team could probably do pretty well, although a Republic of Ireland team can't compete, as they don't have any rinks.

Why isn't the international NHL fan base growing?

It's not what owners may want to hear, but maybe the best way to aggressively grow the game is to abolish the draft. Owners then have to invest significant money into creating more players.

With all the success TB and FLA have had, it hasn't resulted in a bunch of rinks popping up.

edit: I'm thinking maybe they could do a hybrid, where teams that invest in essentially non-producing NHL countries (Belgium, Netherlands, Denmark, Norway, Austria, etc.) bypass the draft, and get exclusivity to those players until some threshold is reached. Then they become a draft eligible country. It won't do a dang thing to build rinks at home, but it's better than nothing.

If I was the NHL I wouldn't be as concerned about growing the talent pool as I would be about growing the fanbase. I think a big detractor for international fans is that they aren't going to be able to cheer for a local team that is at the highest level of play. I have no interest in watching football (soccer) even though I grew up playing it because Tampa doesn't have a team in any of the best leagues (I don't even think I would count the MLS in that).

 

[Felonious Python]

If I was the NHL I wouldn't be as concerned about growing the talent pool as I would be about growing the fanbase. I think a big detractor for international fans is that they aren't going to be able to cheer for a local team that is at the highest level of play. I have no interest in watching football (soccer) even though I grew up playing it because Tampa doesn't have a team in any of the best leagues (I don't even think I would count the MLS in that).

Time zones hurt. The NBA can focus on Brazil or Mexico, and with the same time zones as the US, it's theoretically not as hard to catch a live game on TV.

The complaint from the owners was that they aren't selling enough merch internationally. Naturally, my solution to not selling enough hats is to fundamentally restructure the league.

The NHL can expand and attract new fans in each market, but it doesn't seem that there is a secondary investment piggybacking off that. Not many are looking to get rich off the 'hockey boom' in Seattle or Las Vegas, or wherever.

Water polo is more popular than the original polo. It might be that swimming pools are more common and affordable than horses.

 

[LordStanlersCup]

Time zones hurt. The NBA can focus on Brazil or Mexico, and with the same time zones as the US, it's theoretically not as hard to catch a live game on TV.

The complaint from the owners was that they aren't selling enough merch internationally. Naturally, my solution to not selling enough hats is to fundamentally restructure the league.

The NHL can expand and attract new fans in each market, but it doesn't seem that there is a secondary investment piggybacking off that. Not many are looking to get rich off the 'hockey boom' in Seattle or Las Vegas, or wherever.

Yeah the timezones are the biggest issue, I don't think the travel would be that bad but there really isn't an easy workaround for the timezones.

I would be interested to see if the economics behind the idea would actually be profitable to invest in non-traditional markets to develop talent. It could also ruin the "parity" of the league and smaller NHL markets would crumble. It might have to be something where like as apart of the CBA the owners would take a portion of their 50% of HRR and spend it on overseas marketing/development.

 

[Felonious Python]

Yeah the timezones are the biggest issue, I don't think the travel would be that bad but there really isn't an easy workaround for the timezones.

I would be interested to see if the economics behind the idea would actually be profitable to invest in non-traditional markets to develop talent. It could also ruin the "parity" of the league and smaller NHL markets would crumble. It might have to be something where like as apart of the CBA the owners would take a portion of their 50% of HRR and spend it on overseas marketing/development.

The first countries to get special attention would be the ones most likely to produce players quickly. Russia and Sweden don't really need NHL investment, but if teams could sponsor programs there, they would.

Where the advantage comes in is when teams start to cast as wide a net as possible. England, Italy, France, etc.

ChatGPT actually gave me a good alternative. Basically, a player in an academy (as I'll call it) could choose to sign with their program's NHL sponsor, or enter the draft, so it would incentivize NHL teams to invest, but not guarantee them tons of players.

As for parity and smaller markets, that's the price they have to pay to aggressively grow the game globally. The salary cap would still exist, so there's a level of cost certainty, but hockey is going to get its lunch eaten by other sports if there isn't actual investment in growing the game. Two games in Europe each year isn't going to do it. 61 total rinks in all of Italy isn't going to do it.

If the owners are serious about huge international revenue growth, they have to turn on the money hose.

 

[LordStanlersCup]

I know people are saying the WC1 and WC2 are set in the East but I can't help but look at the Bruins and Rangers and have some questions. The Bruins during their winning stretch were 7-3-0 but 9 out of 10 of those teams were non-playoff teams. They have had the 6th easiest strength of schedule in the league while having a -23 goal differential. The Rangers have had the 4th easiest strength of schedule and have really fallen apart lately. If I were to bet I do think the Rangers will get in but I think one of PHI or OTT is going to pass the Bruins.

 

[Felonious Python]

I know people are saying the WC1 and WC2 are set in the East but I can't help but look at the Bruins and Rangers and have some questions. The Bruins during their winning stretch were 7-3-0 but 9 out of 10 of those teams were non-playoff teams. They have had the 6th easiest strength of schedule in the league while having a -23 goal differential. The Rangers have had the 4th easiest strength of schedule and have really fallen apart lately. If I were to bet I do think the Rangers will get in but I think one of PHI or OTT is going to pass the Bruins.

I understand rebuild talk around the Preds (although I don't really agree with rebuilds). Their season is basically over at this point. What I don't understand the amount of panic surrounding the Rangers and Bruins. Large media markets, I suppose.

The Caps are performing better than expected, as well as the Devils to a certain degree, but performance in the playoffs is pretty much all that's going to matter.

 

[LordStanlersCup]

I understand rebuild talk around the Preds (although I don't really agree with rebuilds). Their season is basically over at this point. What I don't understand the amount of panic surrounding the Rangers and Bruins. Large media markets, I suppose.

The Caps are performing better than expected, as well as the Devils to a certain degree, but performance in the playoffs is pretty much all that's going to matter.

With the Rangers it is probably just a funk and they will get out of it but their numbers are pretty concerning. With the Bruins I look at the numbers and their team on paper and I just don't think its a good team. I think they have been overachieving for awhile now and this is the start of the decline. I have watched a few of their games this season because I was interested in seeing how Brazeau was doing and their team just looks flat.

 

[Felonious Python]

Found this today.
www.reddit.com/r/hockey/comments/137tzhw/why_isnt_hockey_growing_more_internationally_ice/

Latvia seems to do really well with only 24 indoor rinks. Then consider any natural ponds in winter and that the total pop. of Latvia is 1.8 million. 1 rink for every 75k. European countries are just generally more compact than NA.

Hockeyopathy isn't working. One rink per million.