Armchair GM Thread

[Roman Yoshi]

While I fully understand this mindset, the NHL is absolutely rife with teams who tried this approach and are still waiting to be "competitive" again 7,9, 10, or more years later. We go that route and you may be looking at 2032 or later to be competitive again. That's a full on no go for me.

With a competent coach and a decent FA signing(one other two, maximum) we can compete next year while we used our hord.of draft picks to get the next generation going.

I understand the concern of tearing things down. There are teams it hasn't worked for in Buffalo and Columbus.

I know everyone is tired of me saying it but sports are cyclical. Great teams like we had from 2016-2020 rise and fall and when they do they fall hard. Boston has finally hit that point as an example.

On the flip side Ottawa has finally dug their way out since their collapse in 2017-18. Which roster would you rather have going into next year? Ours or theirs?

If you want another sports ball comparison the Patriots are in the middle of their hell years after all the go for it years with Brady.

If we come back with this same roster, the same goaltending even with adding a few free agents and a new coach, I believe the San Jose Sharks will be higher in the standings than we will this time next year.

I don't think there's a way to avoid the iceberg at this point. Trotz had his chance last year to avoid it and plunged us right on a direct path with his terrible roster management this year.

 

[AtlantaWhaler]

I think trading Saros is a fantasy.

This. Folks....he's not being traded. I know Trotz traded guys like Carrier fresh off a contract, but Saros isn't being shopped before a new 8-year contract starts. Plus...talk about selling low. Really don't think there would be a ton of interest out there.

 

[Roman Yoshi]

This franchise has not won a playoff series since 2018. That's 6 years of being mid and without success.

Very few people have been around for all of that. Saros, Sissons, Josi and Forsberg. And the entire front office. This isn't rocket science.

 

[AintLifeGrand]

I wonder if we could be in on Isaac Howard from Tampa. Just won the Hobey Baker and has lit up the NCAA. Didn't sign with Tampa as they didn't have cap space / room for him so he'll be going to back to college.

He's a winger on the smaller side, but extremely crafty, skilled and fast. Don't think we have anyone quite like him in our roster or even in our pipeline.

I wouldn't pay much for him but I wonder if Tampa would be up for a prospect-for-prospect type of a swap. Maybe Kemell with a small add from our side?

outscored by Fink

 

[Viqsi]

I understand the concern of tearing things down. There are teams it hasn't worked for in Buffalo and Columbus.

I know everyone is tired of me saying it but sports are cyclical. Great teams like we had from 2016-2020 rise and fall and when they do they fall hard. Boston has finally hit that point as an example.

On the flip side Ottawa has finally dug their way out since their collapse in 2017-18. Which roster would you rather have going into next year? Ours or theirs?

If you want another sports ball comparison the Patriots are in the middle of their hell years after all the go for it years with Brady.

If we come back with this same roster, the same goaltending even with adding a few free agents and a new coach, I believe the San Jose Sharks will be higher in the standings than we will this time next year.

I don't think there's a way to avoid the iceberg at this point. Trotz had his chance last year to avoid it and plunged us right on a direct path with his terrible roster management this year.

While this is fair reasoning, I don't think what you're suggesting (removing Saros and RoR) is viable. RoR in particular is one of those types of vets one wants to keep for developing kids - you still need to be able to shelter them rather than throw them to the wolves, and he can take on those minutes when needed. Trotz and Brunette are obviously massively oversheltering, that's for damn sure, but that doesn't mean tossing the kids in for as many minutes as possible is the correct solution.

That and I also don't see Saros getting traded anytime soon.

 

[Top 6 Spaling]

While this is fair reasoning, I don't think what you're suggesting (removing Saros and RoR) is viable. RoR in particular is one of those types of vets one wants to keep for developing kids - you still need to be able to shelter them rather than throw them to the wolves, and he can take on those minutes when needed. Trotz and Brunette are obviously massively oversheltering, that's for damn sure, but that doesn't mean tossing the kids in for as many minutes as possible is the correct solution.

That and I also don't see Saros getting traded anytime soon.

Both things can be true - we shouldn't just throw the young guys to the wolves with no protection/mentorship, and also we should trade ROR. We have so many frickin veterans on this team right now that can fill that role, while ROR is worth more to us as a trade chip

 

[Viqsi]

Both things can be true - we shouldn't just throw the young guys to the wolves with no protection/mentorship, and also we should trade ROR. We have so many frickin veterans on this team right now that can fill that role, while ROR is worth more to us as a trade chip

I think folks are confusing "veterans" with "competent veterans". We have plenty of the former but need the latter. Kids don't learn from and are not sheltered by Yet Another Late 30s #7D or #13F.

 

[Top 6 Spaling]

I think folks are confusing "veterans" with "competent veterans". We have plenty of the former but need the latter. Kids don't learn from and are not sheltered by Yet Another Late 30s #7D or #13F.

If Stamkos, Josi, Skjei, Forsberg, Bunting, and Sissons aren't enough, we have a serious problem. Not to mention we can and should use our cap space this offseason to bring in another veteran if we move out ROR.

 

[Roman Yoshi]

If Stamkos, Josi, Skjei, Forsberg, Bunting, and Sissons aren't enough, we have a serious problem. Not to mention we can and should use our cap space this offseason to bring in another veteran if we move out ROR.

Exactly this. If what we have isn't enough we have a major cultural problem in the org.

 

[Viqsi]

If Stamkos, Josi, Skjei, Forsberg, Bunting, and Sissons aren't enough, we have a serious problem. Not to mention we can and should use our cap space this offseason to bring in another veteran if we move out ROR.

I'd consider moving Forsberg and Josi first - especially given the "country club" complaints around Josi. Stamkos and Skjei haven't exactly covered themselves in glory. Bunting barely registers. Sissons is OK but he's not enough himself.

 

[Viqsi]

Exactly this. If what we have isn't enough we have a major cultural problem in the org.

Frankly I think that's self-evident given what we've seen.

 

[Roman Yoshi]

I'd consider moving Forsberg and Josi first - especially given the "country club" complaints around Josi. Stamkos and Skjei haven't exactly covered themselves in glory. Bunting barely registers. Sissons is OK but he's not enough himself.

Everyone you mentioned not named Bunting or Sissons have no trade clauses. Harder to move and worse contracts. O'Reilly though can bring in a haul.

If Stamkos isn't a leader... I don't know what to tell ya.

 

[ShagDaddy]

This roster and head coach are perfect for what this team needs. They’re getting a top 5 draft pick this year. If they keep it like it is they should get a top 5 pick next year and the year after. That’s three top 5 picks to build a future roster around. Even with Trotz at the helm, it’ll be hard to screw up a draft with top 5 picks, all they have to do is draft a guy that all the “draft experts” say is at the top of the list.

 

[PredsV82]

I understand the concern of tearing things down. There are teams it hasn't worked for in Buffalo and Columbus.

I know everyone is tired of me saying it but sports are cyclical. Great teams like we had from 2016-2020 rise and fall and when they do they fall hard. Boston has finally hit that point as an example.

On the flip side Ottawa has finally dug their way out since their collapse in 2017-18. Which roster would you rather have going into next year? Ours or theirs?

If you want another sports ball comparison the Patriots are in the middle of their hell years after all the go for it years with Brady.

If we come back with this same roster, the same goaltending even with adding a few free agents and a new coach, I believe the San Jose Sharks will be higher in the standings than we will this time next year.

I don't think there's a way to avoid the iceberg at this point. Trotz had his chance last year to avoid it and plunged us right on a direct path with his terrible roster management this year.

We will just have to agree to disagree, and it's waaaayy more than just Buffalo and Columbus.
Anaheim, Detroit, Chicago, San Jose, Arizona/Utah are all anywhere from 5 to 10 years removed from the playoffs. Carolina missed for a decade before their current run, as did the Oilers.

Sorry, but if we are going to have a decade of suck at some point no matter what I'd rather give it one more shot with this crew and a competent coach before the teardown happens. And maybe, just maybe, if we can turn it around, we can thread that needle of letting our old guys fall of one at a time and replace them with kids as we go and not be a cellar dweller forever

 

[Roman Yoshi]

We will just have to agree to disagree, and it's waaaayy more than just Buffalo and Columbus.
Anaheim, Detroit, Chicago, San Jose, Arizona/Utah are all anywhere from 5 to 10 years removed from the playoffs. Carolina missed for a decade before their current run, as did the Oilers.

Sorry, but if we are going to have a decade of suck at some point no matter what I'd rather give it one more shot with this crew and a competent coach before the teardown happens. And maybe, just maybe, if we can turn it around, we can thread that needle of letting our old guys fall of one at a time and replace them with kids as we go and not be a cellar dweller forever

The problem with your argument is in that list, you have 3 teams that have won cups in the last 15 years and were all in for years before having to tear it down. Anaheim, Chicago, Detroit. San Jose was one of the most consistent second round plus teams for a decade before having to tear it down. I know they didn't win a cup but they have been more successful than we have over the last 25 years.

Arizona/Utah isn't really that fair because they haven't had a competent ownership group willing to spend money. Now that they do, they almost made the playoffs. I'll group them in with Buffalo and Columbus though.

That's really only three teams in the league I would argue that have been completely incompetent and not had a window anytime recently.

Father time is undefeated. The cyclical nature of sports is undefeated. A 5-10 year is coming and the longer we put band-aids on and try to prevent it the longer until we can dig our way out of it.

 

[PredsV82]

The problem with your argument is in that list, you have 3 teams that have won cups in the last 15 years and were all in for years before having to tear it down. Anaheim, Chicago, Detroit. San Jose was one of the most consistent second round plus teams for a decade before having to tear it down. I know they didn't win a cup but they have been more successful than we have over the last 25 years.

Arizona/Utah isn't really that fair because they haven't had a competent ownership group willing to spend money. Now that they do, they almost made the playoffs. I'll group them in with Buffalo and Columbus though.

That's really only three teams in the league I would argue that have been completely incompetent and not had a window anytime recently.

Father time is undefeated. The cyclical nature of sports is undefeated. A 5-10 year is coming and the longer we put band-aids on and try to prevent it the longer until we can dig our way out of it.

Bullshit. Taking one or two more shots at it with this core won't materially change our "cyclical window" and if it does whon gives a shit if our period of suck is 2025-2035 or 2037??
I'm 60. I dont want to "hurry up and suck" so that maybe I'll see playoff hockey again by the time I'm 70. This very team has never had more than a 2 year down cycle in the 20+ years since emerging from expansion suckage. Why are you so willing to just give up an accept a 10 year rebuild?

Sorry but you are just wrong.

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

If Stamkos, Josi, Skjei, Forsberg, Bunting, and Sissons aren't enough, we have a serious problem. Not to mention we can and should use our cap space this offseason to bring in another veteran if we move out ROR.

How bad do we want to be? Because our centers are pretty scary if we deal ROR.

 

[wmupreds]

Bullshit. Taking one or two more shots at it with this core won't materially change our "cyclical window" and if it does whon gives a shit if our period of suck is 2025-2035 or 2037??
I'm 60. I dont want to "hurry up and suck" so that maybe I'll see playoff hockey again by the time I'm 70. This very team has never had more than a 2 year down cycle in the 20+ years since emerging from expansion suckage. Why are you so willing to just give up an accept a 10 year rebuild?

Sorry but you are just wrong.

I don’t think there’s any rule that says a rebuild has to take forever. The teams that have really gone through the long ones usually are a combination of undesirable markets and bad management (BUF, EDM, CBJ), or their prospect pools were well and truly gutted from long stretches of going for it (DET, CHI, probably SJ; BOS and PIT headed this direction).

Our market is fine for attracting players and despite some of Trotz’s efforts the prospect pool is in reasonably decent shape. This doesn’t seem like it has to be a forever rebuild. Have to have good management though, which…

 

[Roman Yoshi]

Bullshit. Taking one or two more shots at it with this core won't materially change our "cyclical window" and if it does whon gives a shit if our period of suck is 2025-2035 or 2037??
I'm 60. I dont want to "hurry up and suck" so that maybe I'll see playoff hockey again by the time I'm 70. This very team has never had more than a 2 year down cycle in the 20+ years since emerging from expansion suckage. Why are you so willing to just give up an accept a 10 year rebuild?

Sorry but you are just wrong.

Why? Because much like you my parents are 65. They've been season ticket holders since 2006. They deserve to see a Cup in Nashville.

But the more we play footsie around being a bubble team or a second round exit team (which is what we are historically) the less likely they will see a Cup in their life. What we have been doing isn't working.

Let me give you a more recent tear down example that I think the Preds could actually replicate: New York Rangers. At the end of the 17-18 season the Rangers announced a rebuild with an actually well thought out plan for the team and transparency for the fans. And a few high drafts and free agent signings later and they are back in playoff contention including two conference final appearances.

The Rangers failed to qualify for the playoffs this year because of their ridiculously involved owner poisoning the well between management and the players, but we have the same opportunity in front of us.

We are a no tax state, a desirable place to live and a management team that historically not shat the bed. We can attract some good free agents and build through the draft, but we can only do that if there are drastic changes in the front office, the development team and if we cash in on the players who can get us a haul of futures.

My final point on this: in our own division we have Colorado and Dallas who are in their prime and who we are unlikely to beat in the first round for the next 3-4 years because our good players aren't in their prime. We have Minnesota who is coming up assuming they can retain the services of Kaprizov. Their young goaltending and blueline is miles above our own in terms of talent and development. Then you have Winnipeg who I would argue is creating the hill of their prime.

Where is there room for us right now to make it beyond the second round? Our best players are close to or are on the other side of 30 already and we don't have the prospects that Minnesota does right now.

The best thing for us to do is take a knee for the next 3 years and collect and develop assets and wait for Colorado and Dallas to start falling off due to age and due to the salary cap screwing them at some point like it does every competitive team. Our goal should be playoffs by 2028.

I've always respected your opinion and if I saw a different way, I'd take it, but running this thing back would only set us back further. While you may call bullshit, I'm trying prevent this team from going into a 10 year rebuild by tearing it down now.

You deserve to see a Cup. I want that for you, but I don't see it happening until the team reinvents itself from the top down.

 

[Kat Predator]

I don’t think there’s any rule that says a rebuild has to take forever. The teams that have really gone through the long ones usually are a combination of undesirable markets and bad management (BUF, EDM, CBJ), or their prospect pools were well and truly gutted from long stretches of going for it (DET, CHI, probably SJ; BOS and PIT headed this direction).

Our market is fine for attracting players and despite some of Trotz’s efforts the prospect pool is in reasonably decent shape. This doesn’t seem like it has to be a forever rebuild. Have to have good management though, which…

San Jose is an interesting case. They had tried to keep a tight leash on their cap and sign guys to team friendly deals. After they lost in the SCF though, they "went for it" and did a 180 on that. Went after big names in trades and biggest contract in the league sorts of moves. That's when the domino effect really put the team in a difficult position. They were handing out mega-deals to new guys, unable to pay their own guys, sowing discontent in the locker room. And then at trade deadlines, they were moving out solid role players for eye candy rentals. And the real core group just kept getting older.

I think they might have avoided going full turtle and now trying to build something from an old-time expansion team like roster if they had stuck to their "long run of playoffs" plan. That is, if they had kept a tight leash on the cap, kept the guys the were developing, kept their picks and bringing them in via a development pipeline, they could have been a playoff team today.

The bottom line is that it was poor management, taking big swings and high risks, that put them in a position cap and talent wise that their only path forward was to dump a roster full of guys waiting to retire and/or who didn't mesh. Clearing out all those mistakes and continuing to pay the piper in dead money, they were left with spending multiple years with a roster of ELCs and bargain bin low-end free agents.

A lot can go wrong at this point. Will they be able to walk the high wire perfectly and return back to contending in a year or two? That is, follow the "quick total rebuild" plan that is so popular? I doubt it. There is talent, but they are kids, and there are not a lot of true pros still around. Most likely in 4 or 5 seasons they'll rebound to a mushy middle team. But if everyone stays healthy, no busts, development is ahead of the curve, the stars align themselves ... the Sharks could be hoisting a Cup say in 29-30 after a decade of total futility.

 

[triggrman]

Winnipeg didn’t tear it down. They’re not a not a destination city, they didn’t suck for years yet here they are. There is more than one way to skin a cat

 

[Predsanddead24]

If I were in charge I’d fall on the embrace the rebuild side of things but I won’t be too mad if we fire Bruno and make another attempt to try and compete again. My guess is we’re going to take the worst of both worlds approach and keep Brunette while adding another vet or two so we block out any young guys from getting experience while still being terrible. Even better I bet we suck to start the season then fire Brunette partway and the interim coach does just well enough to keep us out of lottery pick range. I’m usually an eternal optimist when it comes to the Preds but I just find it really hard to be anything but cynical about the teams future right now.

 

[Predsanddead24]

Winnipeg didn’t tear it down. They’re not a not a destination city, they didn’t suck for years yet here they are. There is more than one way to skin a cat

I do think Winnipeg is a good example of being able to get elite players without top five picks. Although up until this season they’ve really been a mushy middle team. I think seeing how they perform in these playoffs will be really interesting.

 

[Kat Predator]

Winnipeg didn’t tear it down. They’re not a not a destination city, they didn’t suck for years yet here they are. There is more than one way to skin a cat

Absolutely. You really don't need to go scorched earth to renovate the house and compete. The "cycle" is just management having their eye on the longer term and planning accordingly. If Blake Wheeler is starting to wear down, his contract is heavy, but he's not totally cooked ... you move him to some Trotz-like GM and bring up the next kid in the pipeline. Staple the kid, like Perfetti, to a line with veterans and let him learn and give him a legit chance.

Unfortunately, I think our brain trust isn't really up to this. We're the team that brings in the guys that are on the doorstep of being completely cooked. We're the team that gives away the Perfetti kids and can't figure out how to play them with a couple veterans anyway. We're the team with a boat load of NMCs on a roster of guys over 30. We're closer to being in a position where we have no moves other than scorched earth and facing a decade long rebuild, at an optimistic best, than we have ever been.

 

[Roman Yoshi]

Winnipeg didn’t tear it down. They’re not a not a destination city, they didn’t suck for years yet here they are. There is more than one way to skin a cat

Respectfully, I don't think they are a good example.

The Atlanta Thrashers and the Winnipeg Jets sucked for a long time. When the Thrashers moved to Winnipeg, they had one playoff appearance in the first six years. That is almost exactly the timeline we are talking about. And the crowning jewels and center pieces of that team where Ehlers, Scheifele, Morrissey, Connor, Vilardi, Perfetti all players taken in the top half of the first round (or close to it Connor was 17th overall).

Since their run in 2017-18 the Jets have won a grand total of one playoff round. I don't think that is what we are shooting for.

Now if you say we want to be more like the Jets in terms of player development, I'm all there with you. More than even Brunette, we must clear out the scouts, development team and the Poiles. The jets are a great example of player development and knowing when to move on from guys.