Armchair GM Thread

"More than even Brunette, we must clear out the scouts, development team and the Poiles."

Absolutely agree. Loyalty is a great quality but it is now costing us. It is time to break up the band.
 
Respectfully, I don't think they are a good example.

The Atlanta Thrashers and the Winnipeg Jets sucked for a long time. When the Thrashers moved to Winnipeg, they had one playoff appearance in the first six years. That is almost exactly the timeline we are talking about. And the crowning jewels and center pieces of that team where Ehlers, Scheifele, Morrissey, Connor, Vilardi, Perfetti all players taken in the top half of the first round (or close to it Connor was 17th overall).

Since their run in 2017-18 the Jets have won a grand total of one playoff round. I don't think that is what we are shooting for.

Now if you say we want to be more like the Jets in terms of player development, I'm all there with you. More than even Brunette, we must clear out the scouts, development team and the Poiles. The jets are a great example of player development and knowing when to move on from guys.
It seems like you're talking through your hat here. Under Maurice, the Jets were an excellent team. When we were at our all-time peek, they were right there with us. And look at where the two franchises are now.

A quick rebuild and 3 seasons later, the Jets are once again at the top of the heap in terms of regular season. If we're truly discussing "quick rebuilds", that's basically the definition of it. Miss the playoffs once in 8 seasons and rebound straight to the top of the heap.

Of course, if we're really about cherry picking which team won a Cup or three in the past 30 years and how that translates into being a cereal winner franchise where the scorched earth + unbounded rebuild time is ok because of the dusty trophies in the case, then that's not really talking about quick rebuilds. It's some sort of argument that past success will dictate future returns.
 
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"More than even Brunette, we must clear out the scouts, development team and the Poiles."

Absolutely agree. Loyalty is a great quality but it is now costing us. It is time to break up the band.
What is Taylor doing so terribly in Milwaukee? Serious question.

When these comments that we can't draft and can't develop anyone come up, the questions that must be asked are: who specifically is on the list of outright draft busts? which other organizations are clearly superior at the AHL level of developing talent?

I'm right there with my pitchfork and torch as far as how the pipeline, at its terminus in Nashville, doesn't work correctly, but that's because the overcooked, developed young guy isn't given much of a chance. And that's Brunette, not the scouts or development team.

There was a post about the Red Wings. To end the season, they played their youth on the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd lines and mixed in with veterans. They gave their young d-men 1st pairing. What did Brunette do?
 
This is very much a cart versus horse scenario. Do we have the players to start steering the ship in the right direction? Do we have the right coach to do the steering? You can make an argument either way but the only way to know for sure is if you change one or the other so does Trotz go ahead and try to do a makeover with the talent he has or does he move out the coach and see what he has and then make adjustments to the roster?

I'll throw this out there, does anyone feel confident if we ran these three lines as our top 9? Keep in mind, I'm not viewing the lines as listed as lines 1-3, I'm viewing them as our top 3 lines possibilities with these guys all getting the same amount of even strength time.

Forsberg-Svechkov-Wood
Evangelista-ROR-Bunting
Marchessault-Stamkos-ZLH

Does this give us enough fire power to compete? Have Sissons center the 4th line, keep Smith around if you like and add someone to anchor the other wing other than McCarron. I saw enough out of Wood that I'd give him the job out of camp telling him, take a ton of skating classes this offseason and we'll see you at camp because I think he's good enough to be there. Is it optimum, no but I'd rather see him than bringning in another vet and him having to wait it out in Milwaukee.

Flip side is, without knowing how serious Josi was hurt, and for that matter, Lauzon and Wilsby, the D is going to need a lot of help if we think this is the path forward. I don't like that we don't have a ton of size in the D-corp and by size I mean height and weight. If everyone played with the energy and effort of Blankenburg, we'd have a fun team to watch. Unfortunately, the kid is undersized and would make a great fill in guy or possibly even a third pairing guy. While I like Wilsby and his controlled game, he's on the smaller side as well. Bringing in Molendyk is an option and with him, his skating is off the charts but he lacks size. I think his skating can make up for a lot of that. Stastney is in a very similar boat. We have too many lefties and not enough on the right side to make me feel that great long term.

Barron is a wild card in my view. He's got great wheels, a solid shot and made some exceptional plays the last 10-15 games. He also had quite a few gaffes so which Justin Barron do we get long term? Is there a guy that can teach him to be a better d-man while not losing his offensive instincts that can make him a good two-way defender?

If I'm Trotz, I'm firing Brunette, bringing up Taylor unless Q is available, bringing in a depth forward to replace McCarron and provide decent top 9 play if someone goes out injured or a youngster needs a night off and putting most of my focus on fixing the D corp with vets who have size, leadership and can play D first and foremost. I might even add a second forward to be an upgrade on Smith.

Hopefully Edstrom comes over next year and maybe even Surin and within two years, these guys plus Stiga are in our lineup with some of the other youth and this retool/rebuild is no longer a thing and we're building towards a contender again. Add to that whoever we get in the top 5 this year and depending on who that is, may make some of what I said above become a different path.

And the main reason I'm all for letting Bruno loose is the comments March made about Cassidy yesterday. He mentioned Cassidy had the ability to adapt throughout the season as well as in game, which to me was throwing a ton of shade at Bruno's ability to adapt and when Bruno goes, I'll take the summer to see what we could've done differently, that tells me all I need to know. You have to be able to look at stuff in season and know how to make the alterations, not wait until you have months to do so because the game is ever changing from game to game and in-game as well. I also think Taylor wins no matter the team that's given to him and that says a lot.
 
San Jose is an interesting case. They had tried to keep a tight leash on their cap and sign guys to team friendly deals. After they lost in the SCF though, they "went for it" and did a 180 on that. Went after big names in trades and biggest contract in the league sorts of moves. That's when the domino effect really put the team in a difficult position. They were handing out mega-deals to new guys, unable to pay their own guys, sowing discontent in the locker room. And then at trade deadlines, they were moving out solid role players for eye candy rentals. And the real core group just kept getting older.

I think they might have avoided going full turtle and now trying to build something from an old-time expansion team like roster if they had stuck to their "long run of playoffs" plan. That is, if they had kept a tight leash on the cap, kept the guys the were developing, kept their picks and bringing them in via a development pipeline, they could have been a playoff team today.

The bottom line is that it was poor management, taking big swings and high risks, that put them in a position cap and talent wise that their only path forward was to dump a roster full of guys waiting to retire and/or who didn't mesh. Clearing out all those mistakes and continuing to pay the piper in dead money, they were left with spending multiple years with a roster of ELCs and bargain bin low-end free agents.

A lot can go wrong at this point. Will they be able to walk the high wire perfectly and return back to contending in a year or two? That is, follow the "quick total rebuild" plan that is so popular? I doubt it. There is talent, but they are kids, and there are not a lot of true pros still around. Most likely in 4 or 5 seasons they'll rebound to a mushy middle team. But if everyone stays healthy, no busts, development is ahead of the curve, the stars align themselves ... the Sharks could be hoisting a Cup say in 29-30 after a decade of total futility.
San jose in my opinion are rebuilding the correct way. Mike Grier is doing an excellent job stock piling young stars. They already have their top 2 centers with Celebrini and Smith. They are about to get a top defenseman if they stay at 1 to go along with another potential great defenseman in Dickinson. They plucked askarov from us and their wingers look solid as well with eklund musty. I think San jose will start their upward swing next year. I think grier will start bringing in some good leadership veterans soon.
 
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Winnipeg didn’t tear it down. They’re not a not a destination city, they didn’t suck for years yet here they are. There is more than one way to skin a cat
True Dallas is another who didnt full tear down. BUT this front office has already proved they can't hit on mid first rounders like dallas or the development sucks ass. If we don't want to do a full rebuild then this ownership group has to fire this front office and bring in another group. Janko as gm and Peverley for player personnel would be on my radar

The fact that Scott Nichol still has a job is baffling. He hasn't developed shit in almost 10 years. He has to go
 
San jose in my opinion are rebuilding the correct way. Mike Grier is doing an excellent job stock piling young stars. They already have their top 2 centers with Celebrini and Smith. They are about to get a top defenseman if they stay at 1 to go along with another potential great defenseman in Dickinson. They plucked askarov from us and their wingers look solid as well with eklund musty. I think San jose will start their upward swing next year. I think grier will start bringing in some good leadership veterans soon.
Grier has done a good job with the terrible hand Wilson left him. (Not that he really had much choice.) To be clear, I meant that I don't think the Sharks will be in the SCF next season or the season after. They should start inching their way up the standings, I agree. A lot depends on what sort of FAs Grier can attract, obviously. And that will be the bigger test: who does Grier sign and how do they mesh with the obvious youth movement that's already underway. Assuming he does well there and everything else works out (Celebrini, Smith, Askarov become dominant NHLers, etc.), the Sharks could be legit contenders in 4 or 5 seasons. I guess I am just discounting the near term a bit more than you, since I do think young guys have to pay their dues at the NHL level and their progress is simply nonlinear.
 
This is very much a cart versus horse scenario. Do we have the players to start steering the ship in the right direction? Do we have the right coach to do the steering? You can make an argument either way but the only way to know for sure is if you change one or the other so does Trotz go ahead and try to do a makeover with the talent he has or does he move out the coach and see what he has and then make adjustments to the roster?

I'll throw this out there, does anyone feel confident if we ran these three lines as our top 9? Keep in mind, I'm not viewing the lines as listed as lines 1-3, I'm viewing them as our top 3 lines possibilities with these guys all getting the same amount of even strength time.

Forsberg-Svechkov-Wood
Evangelista-ROR-Bunting
Marchessault-Stamkos-ZLH

Does this give us enough fire power to compete? Have Sissons center the 4th line, keep Smith around if you like and add someone to anchor the other wing other than McCarron. I saw enough out of Wood that I'd give him the job out of camp telling him, take a ton of skating classes this offseason and we'll see you at camp because I think he's good enough to be there. Is it optimum, no but I'd rather see him than bringning in another vet and him having to wait it out in Milwaukee.

Flip side is, without knowing how serious Josi was hurt, and for that matter, Lauzon and Wilsby, the D is going to need a lot of help if we think this is the path forward. I don't like that we don't have a ton of size in the D-corp and by size I mean height and weight. If everyone played with the energy and effort of Blankenburg, we'd have a fun team to watch. Unfortunately, the kid is undersized and would make a great fill in guy or possibly even a third pairing guy. While I like Wilsby and his controlled game, he's on the smaller side as well. Bringing in Molendyk is an option and with him, his skating is off the charts but he lacks size. I think his skating can make up for a lot of that. Stastney is in a very similar boat. We have too many lefties and not enough on the right side to make me feel that great long term.

Barron is a wild card in my view. He's got great wheels, a solid shot and made some exceptional plays the last 10-15 games. He also had quite a few gaffes so which Justin Barron do we get long term? Is there a guy that can teach him to be a better d-man while not losing his offensive instincts that can make him a good two-way defender?

If I'm Trotz, I'm firing Brunette, bringing up Taylor unless Q is available, bringing in a depth forward to replace McCarron and provide decent top 9 play if someone goes out injured or a youngster needs a night off and putting most of my focus on fixing the D corp with vets who have size, leadership and can play D first and foremost. I might even add a second forward to be an upgrade on Smith.

Hopefully Edstrom comes over next year and maybe even Surin and within two years, these guys plus Stiga are in our lineup with some of the other youth and this retool/rebuild is no longer a thing and we're building towards a contender again. Add to that whoever we get in the top 5 this year and depending on who that is, may make some of what I said above become a different path.

And the main reason I'm all for letting Bruno loose is the comments March made about Cassidy yesterday. He mentioned Cassidy had the ability to adapt throughout the season as well as in game, which to me was throwing a ton of shade at Bruno's ability to adapt and when Bruno goes, I'll take the summer to see what we could've done differently, that tells me all I need to know. You have to be able to look at stuff in season and know how to make the alterations, not wait until you have months to do so because the game is ever changing from game to game and in-game as well. I also think Taylor wins no matter the team that's given to him and that says a lot.
Couldn't agree more. Would love to see this come to fruition. Now that would be fun to watch.
 
True Dallas is another who didnt full tear down. BUT this front office has already proved they can't hit on mid first rounders like dallas or the development sucks ass. If we don't want to do a full rebuild then this ownership group has to fire this front office and bring in another group. Janko as gm and Peverley for player personnel would be on my radar

The fact that Scott Nichol still has a job is baffling. He hasn't developed shit in almost 10 years. He has to go
We sit and wonder why we can't develop talent and have a former 4th line plug as our director of development, hmmmmmm.
 
What is Taylor doing so terribly in Milwaukee? Serious question.

When these comments that we can't draft and can't develop anyone come up, the questions that must be asked are: who specifically is on the list of outright draft busts? which other organizations are clearly superior at the AHL level of developing talent?

I'm right there with my pitchfork and torch as far as how the pipeline, at its terminus in Nashville, doesn't work correctly, but that's because the overcooked, developed young guy isn't given much of a chance. And that's Brunette, not the scouts or development team.

There was a post about the Red Wings. To end the season, they played their youth on the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd lines and mixed in with veterans. They gave their young d-men 1st pairing. What did Brunette do?
Not referencing Taylor, I meant the hockey ops, scouting and at this point the management side, game ops have been terrible the last few seasons.
 
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Grier has done a good job with the terrible hand Wilson left him. (Not that he really had much choice.) To be clear, I meant that I don't think the Sharks will be in the SCF next season or the season after. They should start inching their way up the standings, I agree. A lot depends on what sort of FAs Grier can attract, obviously. And that will be the bigger test: who does Grier sign and how do they mesh with the obvious youth movement that's already underway. Assuming he does well there and everything else works out (Celebrini, Smith, Askarov become dominant NHLers, etc.), the Sharks could be legit contenders in 4 or 5 seasons. I guess I am just discounting the near term a bit more than you, since I do think young guys have to pay their dues at the NHL level and their progress is simply nonlinear.
Well technically san jose didn't commit to a rebuild until grier got there in 22. So 3 years into a rebuild and I think there right on pace to start moving up the standings next year or the year after. If I'm grier I would be looking to sign some player this year. Marner could look really nice along side Celebrini or Smith and poink or ekbald would solidify the right side. Maybe a year to soon for that though.
 
Well technically san jose didn't commit to a rebuild until grier got there in 22. So 3 years into a rebuild and I think there right on pace to start moving up the standings next year or the year after. If I'm grier I would be looking to sign some player this year. Marner could look really nice along side Celebrini or Smith and poink or ekbald would solidify the right side. Maybe a year to soon for that though.
To tie this back to the Preds ... the last few years of Wilson count as a rebuild in my interpretation in the same way the Preds are rebuilding right now. Wilson was alone on the island of denial. He thought he could keep a group and swap out other pieces and everything would come together with some pixie dust even when it was clear to everyone it wasn't going to happen. Trotz is repeating similar chapter and verse. Just needs players to play better, good puck luck, and maybe add a piece or two in free agency. The only difference is that the Sharks were a mushy middle team at that point while the Preds are in Sucksville.
 
To tie this back to the Preds ... the last few years of Wilson count as a rebuild in my interpretation in the same way the Preds are rebuilding right now. Wilson was alone on the island of denial. He thought he could keep a group and swap out other pieces and everything would come together with some pixie dust even when it was clear to everyone it wasn't going to happen. Trotz is repeating similar chapter and verse. Just needs players to play better, good puck luck, and maybe add a piece or two in free agency. The only difference is that the Sharks were a mushy middle team at that point while the Preds are in Sucksville.
Exactly this is.
 
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To tie this back to the Preds ... the last few years of Wilson count as a rebuild in my interpretation in the same way the Preds are rebuilding right now. Wilson was alone on the island of denial. He thought he could keep a group and swap out other pieces and everything would come together with some pixie dust even when it was clear to everyone it wasn't going to happen. Trotz is repeating similar chapter and verse. Just needs players to play better, good puck luck, and maybe add a piece or two in free agency. The only difference is that the Sharks were a mushy middle team at that point while the Preds are in Sucksville.
I don't necessarily believe you have to rebuild in the sense of being the worse team in hockey either. It's one way to become a contender but not the only. Look at teams in our division alone dallas, st louis and Winnipeg. Conner, Johnston, Robertson, Thomas and kyrou, just to name a few, were all lower picks but were developed into really good players. We just don't have that kind of staff right now. Nichol is terrible with developing, scouts are under par and our gm quite frankly has no idea what he's doing. The best way to turn this franchise around would be to fire the entire front office and bring in someone who has no ties to the preds. The "predator way" isn't the way anymore.
 
I'm really not trying to be argumentative or bullheaded in my opinion. I'm just worried that the Preds chance of a rebuild on the fly crashed to last off season.

And I agree with a lot of people here that the development pipeline is really the thing that has me most worried. We don't have the right people in those seats organizationally.

Who knows. I've been wrong before and I'll be wrong again, but what we currently have too many over the hill vets and too many C-B prospects. Every team in the NHL has a Gibson or a Wood. Every team has 5 Del Gaizos and at least 3 Wilsbys.
 
Why? Because much like you my parents are 65. They've been season ticket holders since 2006. They deserve to see a Cup in Nashville.

But the more we play footsie around being a bubble team or a second round exit team (which is what we are historically) the less likely they will see a Cup in their life. What we have been doing isn't working.

Let me give you a more recent tear down example that I think the Preds could actually replicate: New York Rangers. At the end of the 17-18 season the Rangers announced a rebuild with an actually well thought out plan for the team and transparency for the fans. And a few high drafts and free agent signings later and they are back in playoff contention including two conference final appearances.

The Rangers failed to qualify for the playoffs this year because of their ridiculously involved owner poisoning the well between management and the players, but we have the same opportunity in front of us.

We are a no tax state, a desirable place to live and a management team that historically not shat the bed. We can attract some good free agents and build through the draft, but we can only do that if there are drastic changes in the front office, the development team and if we cash in on the players who can get us a haul of futures.

My final point on this: in our own division we have Colorado and Dallas who are in their prime and who we are unlikely to beat in the first round for the next 3-4 years because our good players aren't in their prime. We have Minnesota who is coming up assuming they can retain the services of Kaprizov. Their young goaltending and blueline is miles above our own in terms of talent and development. Then you have Winnipeg who I would argue is creating the hill of their prime.

Where is there room for us right now to make it beyond the second round? Our best players are close to or are on the other side of 30 already and we don't have the prospects that Minnesota does right now.

The best thing for us to do is take a knee for the next 3 years and collect and develop assets and wait for Colorado and Dallas to start falling off due to age and due to the salary cap screwing them at some point like it does every competitive team. Our goal should be playoffs by 2028.

I've always respected your opinion and if I saw a different way, I'd take it, but running this thing back would only set us back further. While you may call bullshit, I'm trying prevent this team from going into a 10 year rebuild by tearing it down now.

You deserve to see a Cup. I want that for you, but I don't see it happening until the team reinvents itself from the top down.
The way to avoid the 10 year rebuild is to NOT strip it down to the studs. What has happened to Detroit is what could easily happen to us. Detroit blew it up completely but due to not getting at least two franchise players in the draft(one isn't enough) they are now seeing the prospects they thought would be the cornerstone of their rebuilt teams turning 27 and 28 and leaving or not having become good enough to be worth keeping.

We have enough good players to be a playoff team next year with a competent coach. And we could stay competitive and work in one or two youngsters a year over the next 3 years. This is especially true if the person we pick this summer really can be a 1C at the NHL level in 2 or 3 years.

That's how good franchises rebuild
 
The way to avoid the 10 year rebuild is to NOT strip it down to the studs. What has happened to Detroit is what could easily happen to us. Detroit blew it up completely but due to not getting at least two franchise players in the draft(one isn't enough) they are now seeing the prospects they thought would be the cornerstone of their rebuilt teams turning 27 and 28 and leaving or not having become good enough to be worth keeping.

We have enough good players to be a playoff team next year with a competent coach. And we could stay competitive and work in one or two youngsters a year over the next 3 years. This is especially true if the person we pick this summer really can be a 1C at the NHL level in 2 or 3 years.

That's how good franchises rebuild
The Wings never blew their team up though. They basically just let all their guys age into retirement while being completely unable to draft and develop any young players with the mid to later first round picks they had. Which actually sounds a lot like our current predicament. I do think Detroit is a good example that with the draft lottery that being consistently terrible doesn’t guarantee you ever actually get a franchise level player though.

Although I’d say the number one lesson is that the number one most important thing with building a good team is a competent front office. Unfortunately I don’t think we have that right now.
 
New version of the same convo we've had ad nauseum here - my short version is that there is, IMO, a 0% we win a cup in the next 3-5 years. We might as well make the moves that set us up best for 2029-2030, which is a sell-off rebuild while keeping a few vets around for leadership.
 
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