Speculation: Armchair GM Thread - Looking to the offseason

[Scoresberg]

Well, the season hasn't obviously gone the way we all hoped.

The playoff race is getting further and further away from us and sooner rather than later there will be some difficult discussions. We are cap-strapped which makes it very difficult to improve the team.

What do You do as the GM of the Nashville Predators?

Do you trade the fan favorite Tanner Jeannot, as he could have huge value? Is Trenin on his way out after tough arbitration negotiations? Do you perhaps retain salary and move some veterans like Granlund or Ekholm? Can you trade Nino five months after signing him? Trading Joey could free up space, but would more likely be an off-season trade.

Please discuss.

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[Porter Stoutheart]

Are we allowed to say: fire Hynes and recall Taylor?

Honestly, I wouldn’t start making trades until after that first step. Because there’s still enough time (barely, fading fast) for a Hail Mary to pan out with a coaching change. But that has to happen very very soon.

 

[Predsanddead24]

Are we allowed to say: fire Hynes and recall Taylor?

Honestly, I wouldn’t start making trades until after that first step. Because there’s still enough time (barely, fading fast) for a Hail Mary to pan out with a coaching change. But that has to happen very very soon.

Plus I think you’d like to evaluate the players under a different coach before you start deciding who if anyone to trade.

I’m not really sure what you do but ride it out for the next few years and hope a coaching change gets guys to bounce back. Our vets pretty much have no trade value so the only option is to trade some of the younger guys but that isn’t appealing either.

 

[jumb0]

Retirement

 

[Scoresberg]

Plus I think you’d like to evaluate the players under a different coach before you start deciding who if anyone to trade.

I’m not really sure what you do but ride it out for the next few years and hope a coaching change gets guys to bounce back. Our vets pretty much have no trade value so the only option is to trade some of the younger guys but that isn’t appealing either.

We do seem to be in a position where coaching change is the only logical option. Most of our big contracts are immovable, and the players are not old enough to just throw in the towel and hope for high picks.

A new coach *could* light this team up.

 

[AintLifeGrand]

the team is going to pivot to speed and skill from Size and physicality

trade Jeannot before his value plummets

trade nino at the deadline

trade granlund at deadline

trade fabbro

trade trenin

trade sissons

trade saros

these assets should get us some good assets to execute a quick rebuild

hopefully we suck hard enough to get a top 5 pick

next year we roll with a version of this team

forsberg-Parsinnen-Tomasino
Free Agent/ Trade-Glass- duchene
Afanasyev- novak- Evangelista
Cole Smith- Johansen-jankowski

Josi-Mcdonough
Ekholm-Carrier
Lauzon-Gross

Lankinen

Askarov

 

[Armourboy]

To me you fire Hynes and then see where you are at the trade deadline. About the only guys you can move are the ones you don't want too.

You can tell by the starting line up Hynes is just tossing stuff at the wall right now. There is no chemistry and what little we did have he has completely destroyed.

 

[Byrddog]

Not much is going to change unless you address the elephant in the room. Everywhere Johansen has played he has turn on or off and it has effected the entire team. Yes it is coaching not addressing it , but allowing it to fester is a big issue. Torts set his butt in Columbus and we had to have that pretty new toy.

When Johansen and Forsberg want to play a team game they make a lethal 1st line. The thing is FF9 has now got paid and as RJ goes so does he. It takes effort to fall off a cliff after last years performance.

Poile has made some silly decisions and since the early days of Weber Suter this defense is just Mehhhhh. Saros is not the tender most thought. And the team is at the top of the cap.
Any road has to start with a new GM but the ownership group is not competent enough to make a change there. Hynes is all on Poile he is the only one who believes in this guy.

 

[weeze]

Not much is going to change unless you address the elephant in the room. Everywhere Johansen has played he has turn on or off and it has effected the entire team. Yes it is coaching not addressing it , but allowing it to fester is a big issue. Torts set his butt in Columbus and we had to have that pretty new toy.

When Johansen and Forsberg want to play a team game they make a lethal 1st line. The thing is FF9 has now got paid and as RJ goes so does he. It takes effort to fall off a cliff after last years performance.

Poile has made some silly decisions and since the early days of Weber Suter this defense is just Mehhhhh. Saros is not the tender most thought. And the team is at the top of the cap.
Any road has to start with a new GM but the ownership group is not competent enough to make a change there. Hynes is all on Poile he is the only one who believes in this guy.

I thought the issue was Fiala, then Arvidsson, then Kunin. But it sounds like it is Joey? Sure he can be a little lazy but which Pred is not lazy at times? Only a few will fall into that category. Trotz was never given a true 1C and a loaded roster like Lavy had and what did Lavy do. Players started to not play or the system started to fail and the result ended with Lavy gone. Hynes has had the players he wanted and let go the ones he didn't want and the play has suffered because of it... and he is still the coach. That is on GMDP.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Well, with Tolvanen gone, I don't even know really what to do with that dream "kid line" of Tolvy, Glass, Tomasino. I guess Smith ends up there by default, and Novak is as ready as he'll ever be as the spare now. Although there'd be an open competition from Milwaukee for spare spots, and there are several others who could potentially beat him out.

From a budgeting standpoint, the league message that there is once again only likely a $1M Cap riser coming is sort of offset by the potential for our big RFAs (Jeannot, Carrier, Fabbro) being worth a lot less than we had previously been thinking based on their play this year.

2023-24
Forsberg ($8.5M) - Parssinen ($0.850833M) - Duchene ($8M)
Niederreiter ($4M) - Johansen ($8M) - Granlund ($5M)
Trenin ($1.7M) - Sissons ($2.857M) - Jeannot (RFA)
Smith (UFA) - Glass (RFA) - Tomasino ($0.863333M)
Novak (RFA)

Josi ($9.059M) - McDonagh ($6.75M)
Ekholm ($6.25M) - Fabbro (RFA)
Lauzon ($2M) - Carrier (RFA)
Gross ($0.7625M)

Saros ($5M)
Lankinen (UFA)

Buyouts: Turris ($2M)

Total: $71.59266M committed

So if they don't make up the escrow debt and the Cap only goes up by $1M to $83.5M then:
Remaining Cap Space: $11.907337M

That Cap Space will get chewed up pretty fast, though. I would offer these contracts to the impending FAs as of today:

Jeannot - the Sissons contract, 7x$2.857M; he is still a very useful player I'd want to keep longterm, even if it turned out to be a fantasy that he could score more. But like Sissons, he has a place on a good team, they are both good enough in their roles that I don't have a problem committing that money to lock up those necessary depth spots.

Smith - he's playing well within his role, but... he's still fairly generic and replaceable... I wouldn't overpay for what he does, 1-yr $800k.

Glass - I think he is showing enough that he should stay and I would like to see him play more and with more skilled linemates. But he also hasn't exactly turned a corner. So 1yr x $1M.

Novak or whoever fills the spares slot is just a league minimum salary, or whatever one of our younger guys has on their ELC, so budget $0.775M.

Fabbro and Carrier, based on last season, both were looking like viable top-4 D, and decent young top-4 D could legitimately have been worth something like $4M each. But now the Preds are casting Fabbro as a bottom-pairing guy and Carrier doesn't have the offensive numbers behind him that he did last year. I don't know how the team is going to approach these deals, or how willing the players would be to accept the likely low-ball offers they'll get. Maybe Carrier will be more willing to take something like $2.5M, since he's still coming off a cheap loyalty deal already and that's still a big step up for him. Fabbro isn't being used as a player who would be worth more than what he's getting paid now, but he can't be happy about that. But for checking the math purposes, suppose we get both of them combined for some ultra-lowball $5M.

Lankinen might be too good to be a $1.5M backup? But I don't know how much more we could really pay him with Askarov coming on. It may not be realistic to think we could lure him back for just 1 yr, even at a small raise to $2M. Not if other teams are coming with 3- or 4-year offers.

So anyway, math it up, even with these conservative reductions:
Jeannot + Smith + Glass + Novak/spare + FabbroCarrier + Backup Goalie
$2.857M + $0.800M + $1M + $0.775M + $5M + $2M
= $12.432M

Which is actually doable if you did take Askarov on ELC as the backup instead of Lankinen at $2M. But it's a big step down for Jeannot/Fabbro/Carrier in particular to get there.

 

[Armourboy]

Giving Jeannot that number of years is putting a lot of hope and faith that he doesn't just end up a really good 4th liner that can give you some points, especially as he gets some miles on him.

I have a feeling Fabbro isn't going to take an offer like that and would likely just sign his offer sheet. Carrier is a bit more likely on a cheaper deal. The rest of it is pretty much whatever, you could pretty much just change the names to protect the innocent.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Giving Jeannot that number of years is putting a lot of hope and faith that he doesn't just end up a really good 4th liner that can give you some points, especially as he gets some miles on him.

Yes, I have at least that much faith in Jeannot. If he becomes basically a Sissons-level player, then I would be happy to have him on my team with a Sissons-level contract. The Cap is going to go up dramatically in the future, after next year. Some good bottom-6 forwards you like and rely on already make that kind of money, and it will become even less of an anomaly over time.

I have a feeling Fabbro isn't going to take an offer like that and would likely just sign his offer sheet. Carrier is a bit more likely on a cheaper deal. The rest of it is pretty much whatever, you could pretty much just change the names to protect the innocent.

I agree. I think Fabbro is a good candidate to get traded or file for arbitration, or take his QO and be planning to sail away, given the way the team has been handling him this year so far, anyway.

 

[herzausstein]

I fear our leaderships unhealthy obsession with grit and size has made this team too slow and unskilled. Need to find a proper balance.

1- get rid of those that got us into this position.
2- look to trade jeannot, sissons, and/or trenin. Too much redundancy in this lineup in terms of size. These pieces should get something in return. Whereas the cheap signed depth of Jankowski, smith, McCarron wont net anything but can backfill what is lost here through trade.
3- explore granlunds and duchenes trade values
4 - see if there is a trade for ekholm or McDonagh. The d group is getting old and slow. Hedge that off some while theres still value
5 - profit

 

[Armourboy]

I fear our leaderships unhealthy obsession with grit and size has made this team too slow and unskilled

I just think Hynes has subscribed to the thought that if a bit of something is good than a whole lot of it is even better. Obviously that isn't the case.

 

[herzausstein]

I just think Hynes has subscribed to the thought that if a bit of something is good than a whole lot of it is even better. Obviously that isn't the case.

I mean we did try to run the herd line a 3rd and dollar store brand herd line at 4th.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

I fear our leaderships unhealthy obsession with grit and size has made this team too slow and unskilled. Need to find a proper balance.

1- get rid of those that got us into this position.
2- look to trade jeannot, sissons, and/or trenin. Too much redundancy in this lineup in terms of size. These pieces should get something in return. Whereas the cheap signed depth of Jankowski, smith, McCarron wont net anything but can backfill what is lost here through trade.
3- explore granlunds and duchenes trade values
4 - see if there is a trade for ekholm or McDonagh. The d group is getting old and slow. Hedge that off some while theres still value
5 - profit

I don't subscribe to #2 at all. I think there is very much room for all 3 of those guys. Trenin and Jeannot's 17 and 24 goals may have been slightly flukey, but at the same time they CAN score a bit while playing heavy, and that can still be part of a successful lineup.

Just... we absolutely do not need the dollar-store redundant versions of them in the lineup at the same time. Stick with the 3 good ones. Pay them. Appreciate what they do. But once we have them in place, we don't need the second set of inferior ones at the same time. It's the "cheap signed depth" that we should replace, not the prime Grade-A beef of the Herd Line. Because we can replace the "cheap signed depth" with skilled ELC players too... Tomasino, Evangelista, Kemell... the skilled forwards we have coming on ELCs are not more expensive than the cheap signed depth. And then we can always re-evaluate the mix down the road depending on how they all pan out.

Then the rest of it, well, I don't have any optimism whatsoever that there is good trade value to be had, nor profit, from the firesale approach. There may or may not be with a new coach. But really, Step #1 kind of obviates the need for all the other steps anyway... because until you see what a new coach does with things, all the rest of it should be on hold.

 

[Scoresberg]

If we're desperate for cap space, I might look into trading Sissons. He's been a good warrior for us for many years, but I think he's struggled lately and we could find someone to replace him with a lower cap hit.

Pärssinen has taken his spot as a center and outplayed him, and especially, if the choice is between Jeannot/Fabbro and Sissons, I know who I would choose.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

If we're desperate for cap space, I might look into trading Sissons. He's been a good warrior for us for many years, but I think he's struggled lately and we could find someone to replace him with a lower cap hit.

Pärssinen has taken his spot as a center and outplayed him, and especially, if the choice is between Jeannot/Fabbro and Sissons, I know who I would choose.

I don't think we should ever be that desperate for Cap space. I don't see Sissons as "struggling" either. He does his thing, very reliable, it's usually under the radar, but he's effective. Indeed, all our grinder types are kind of flying a little under the radar because they aren't scoring much, but all of them are + on this team. +/- doesn't mean anything in a global sense, but all of Sissons, Trenin, Jeannot, Smith, Jankowski are somehow still managing to carry a + on this team, which in a relative internal sense does mean a little bit. While Granlund drags around a -12.

The spot Parssinen needs to take is Granlund's. Granlund isn't good as a center. He tries, but it's just not right for him. And Sissons has no business being a top-6 winger either, of course. That's putting players in positions which don't play to their best strengths.

We should be running Johansen and Parssinen as the centers on the top 2 lines, and we should be running Sissons as a center in the bottom-6. That this isn't dead obvious to the coach is just another indictment of the coach, not the players.

 

[herzausstein]

I don't subscribe to #2 at all. I think there is very much room for all 3 of those guys. Trenin and Jeannot's 17 and 24 goals may have been slightly flukey, but at the same time they CAN score a bit while playing heavy, and that can still be part of a successful lineup.

Just... we absolutely do not need the dollar-store redundant versions of them in the lineup at the same time. Stick with the 3 good ones. Pay them. Appreciate what they do. But once we have them in place, we don't need the second set of inferior ones at the same time. It's the "cheap signed depth" that we should replace, not the prime Grade-A beef of the Herd Line. Because we can replace the "cheap signed depth" with skilled ELC players too... Tomasino, Evangelista, Kemell... the skilled forwards we have coming on ELCs are not more expensive than the cheap signed depth. And then we can always re-evaluate the mix down the road depending on how they all pan out.

Then the rest of it, well, I don't have any optimism whatsoever that there is good trade value to be had, nor profit, from the firesale approach. There may or may not be with a new coach. But really, Step #1 kind of obviates the need for all the other steps anyway... because until you see what a new coach does with things, all the rest of it should be on hold.

Step 1 to me is obvious.
Step 2 I think sissons at his caphit is a luxery. He would be the main one id try to trade but it also depends on how much jeannot wants.
Step 3 probably not much value there but if the right value can be had why not. We have alot of wing prospects. Create some space for then and some capspace
Step 4 even with a new coach. Ekholm and McDonagh are not going to get faster.

 

[Armourboy]

Step 1 to me is obvious.
Step 2 I think sissons at his caphit is a luxery. He would be the main one id try to trade but it also depends on how much jeannot wants.
Step 3 probably not much value there but if the right value can be had why not. We have alot of wing prospects. Create some space for then and some capspace
Step 4 even with a new coach. Ekholm and McDonagh are not going to get faster.

Sissons is a luxury if you have someone to replace him and while you can bring up Novak that means you don't have much if there is an injury. No one knows what will happen with Big Mac so you can't really count as him being a fill in. So yeah you can save some cap but you might also lose some effectiveness as well.

I mean you can look to move Granlund or Duchene but then you've got to bring someone up to play, and if Hynes is still here then good luck with that. That said I don't think either bring much value wise. Granlund might could get something because he is cheaper but with the current cap situation you are going to be doing good not to pay to move Duchene.

Ekholm and McDonagh may not get faster but both can still be effective. Especially with Ekholm you are looking at finding another #3 and that ain't going to be cheap or easy. You have nothing in the system anywhere close to being able to fill his spot.

Moving these guys sounds great on paper but you gotta find replacements which may not be a whole lot better, especially on the defensive side of things. Wingers, are a bit of a different deal if you are willing to play the kids which means you are going to need to change coaches before that is going to happen.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Step 1 to me is obvious.
Step 2 I think sissons at his caphit is a luxery. He would be the main one id try to trade but it also depends on how much jeannot wants.

I am saying it's a luxury we should always be able to afford. I guess that means it's actually not THAT much of a "luxury" per se. But a player like Sissons SHOULD cost $2-3M IMHO. And if you happen to get one cheaper, you got very very lucky, and it's not an easy thing to do, although not entirely impossible either. But it's not so likely you could find one that you should go so far out of your way just to save $1M on an $83.5M Salary Cap. Or if you think McCarron or Jankowski are just as good, then I say we just fundamentally disagree on how good Sissons is.

Step 3 probably not much value there but if the right value can be had why not. We have alot of wing prospects. Create some space for then and some capspace
Step 4 even with a new coach. Ekholm and McDonagh are not going to get faster.

I don't see why we need Ekholm and McDonagh to be faster? They are fine. Not all defensemen are fast. We have Josi, Carrier, Fabbro, and probably Gross in our group moving forward. I don't see overloading on speed on the back end as something I would consciously try to build my team on. Now, if Ekholm or McDonagh can't play defense anymore, period, then that's a separate issue. But in that case nobody would want them anyway. If we had all small fast defensemen, then I suspect we'd just be complaining about how small and weak they are. And if we had all BIG fast defensemen, welll... we couldn't afford that either. Colorado went out and got Josh Manson and he's definitely not fast, and Tampa had the same McDonagh; a team can win with some defense who aren't the fleetest of foot, that's not an automatically crippling issue. It's not so much that we need to be faster on the blueline, we just need guys to play better - or be utilized better - faster and slower guys alike. And get more help from the forwards. Faster and slower ones alike. Which does come down to coaching.

 

[Bringer of Jollity]

Sissons is on pace for more points than Jeannot. If last year was an anomaly and if we're talking the same amount of money, is Sissons really all that expendable considering his versatility and faceoff ability?

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Sissons is a luxury if you have someone to replace him and while you can bring up Novak that means you don't have much if there is an injury. No one knows what will happen with Big Mac so you can't really count as him being a fill in. So yeah you can save some cap but you might also lose some effectiveness as well.

I mean you can look to move Granlund or Duchene but then you've got to bring someone up to play, and if Hynes is still here then good luck with that. That said I don't think either bring much value wise. Granlund might could get something because he is cheaper but with the current cap situation you are going to be doing good not to pay to move Duchene.

Ekholm and McDonagh may not get faster but both can still be effective. Especially with Ekholm you are looking at finding another #3 and that ain't going to be cheap or easy. You have nothing in the system anywhere close to being able to fill his spot.

Moving these guys sounds great on paper but you gotta find replacements which may not be a whole lot better, especially on the defensive side of things. Wingers, are a bit of a different deal if you are willing to play the kids which means you are going to need to change coaches before that is going to happen.

I suspect teams are going to be enormously leery about taking on extra contract years. Even on ostensibly decent/good players. The news that they aren't going to pay off the escrow debt and the Cap is only going to go up $1M has a lot of teams scared. We aren't the only ones facing a Cap crunch. In fact, it's probably a big reason why teams weren't putting in claims on Tolvanen. Even with a relatively miniscule $1.45M next year.

Nobody is going to take our vets with multiple expensive years left, nobody. If they were impending UFAs, that'd be different, there will still be a Trade Deadline market for teams that can wedge in pro-rated UFA salaries for a playoff run. But nobody is going to take those longer contracts.

OR if they do take longer contracts, they are going to want to dump equivalent trash contracts back, and that doesn't help anything.

So it comes back to this: we are pretty much STUCK in terms of player personnel. The only bit of wiggle room we might have is around the edges in terms of promoting some youngsters from Milwaukee over some of the current cheap depth. Maybe things will be different NEXT YEAR with a much bigger Cap rise on the horizon. So when that time rolls around, if we still suck, then revisiting the player personnel issue may be worthwhile at that time. But for now, I think we've only got 1 real card to play: coaching change and cross our fingers. Even if the coaching change doesn't pay off, then we're still going to be stuck... the trade market for our guys still isn't going to materialize this year.

 

[triggrman]

wrong thread

 

[herzausstein]

I am saying it's a luxury we should always be able to afford. I guess that means it's actually not THAT much of a "luxury" per se. But a player like Sissons SHOULD cost $2-3M IMHO. And if you happen to get one cheaper, you got very very lucky, and it's not an easy thing to do, although not entirely impossible either. But it's not so likely you could find one that you should go so far out of your way just to save $1M on an $83.5M Salary Cap. Or if you think McCarron or Jankowski are just as good, then I say we just fundamentally disagree on how good Sissons is.


I don't see why we need Ekholm and McDonagh to be faster? They are fine. Not all defensemen are fast. We have Josi, Carrier, Fabbro, and probably Gross in our group moving forward. I don't see overloading on speed on the back end as something I would consciously try to build my team on. Now, if Ekholm or McDonagh can't play defense anymore, period, then that's a separate issue. But in that case nobody would want them anyway. If we had all small fast defensemen, then I suspect we'd just be complaining about how small and weak they are. And if we had all BIG fast defensemen, welll... we couldn't afford that either. Colorado went out and got Josh Manson and he's definitely not fast, and Tampa had the same McDonagh; a team can win with some defense who aren't the fleetest of foot, that's not an automatically crippling issue. It's not so much that we need to be faster on the blueline, we just need guys to play better - or be utilized better - faster and slower guys alike. And get more help from the forwards. Faster and slower ones alike. Which does come down to coaching.

I guess my view of sissons if that more of a 4th liner than a 3rd liner. Nearly 3 million in cap for a 4th liner is pretty excessive while perfectly acceptable for a 3rd liner. Sissons 25-30 points is probably high enough to be considered 3rd liner production and he does bring good defensive play and faceoff ability (other than the last 2 games). I just envision sissons anchoring a 4th line thats defensive in nature vs whatever hynes is trying to do with him now. And every penny counts... remember we just waived tolvanen bc of a couple hundred thousand .

On defense, our defense group of josi, ekholm, McDonagh is 32, 32, and 33. I suspect McDonagh will age the least gracefully due to playstyle and having alot of miles on him (almost 1000 games played). I guess im afraid to get stuck with some untradeable contract as their play inevitably declines while we are in a point of transition.

Still you may be right that a new coach may be the remedy the team needs.