Speculation: Armchair GM - Offseason Thread (Summer Edition)

[traffic cone]

Babcock basically just told a reporter in a Q&A that every guy is a clean slate and their play in camp and preseason will determine their linemates, minutes and situational play.

I think that’s more a way to get the best out of his players - the best thing he can say. There’s no way contract situation and players’ past performances have zero meaning. Even if it is Babcock.

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

I think that’s more a way to get the best out of his players - the best thing he can say. There’s no way contract situation and players’ past performances have zero meaning. Even if it is Babcock.

Of course but I believe there is more than a ring of truth to it. Certainly he has expectations based on player history.

 

[thebus88]

You'll find Gaudreau, Laine, Marchencko, Jenner and Johnson in the top 6 but outside of that everything is a mystery for forwards. I wouldn't want to guess.

Many people seem to be a bit too high on Marchenko after last year, IMO. Long term he definitely has “top 6” and/or “top line” potential, but, I don’t think he should be penciled into the top 6, and I really don’t like the idea of him playing top line minutes next year.

I don’t think he should be looked at much different than Chinakhov and probably less than Fantilli, even as soon as next year.

I have Johnson ahead of the Russian guys also and playing higher in the lineup, that’s unless he’s put at center, after say Jenner-Fantilli.

Werenski, Severson and Provorov will fill 3/4 top 2 pairings and rest is up to camp.

I agree with this. I still think Bean comes in and surprises people. Maybe Boqvist improved his fitness/strength immensely. Maybe he fits well with Provorov.

Werenski-Severson
Provorov-Boqvist
Bean-Gudbranson

 

[Marioesque]

Many people seem to be a bit too high on Marchenko after last year, IMO. Long term he definitely has “top 6” and/or “top line” potential, but, I don’t think he should be penciled into the top 6, and I really don’t like the idea of him playing top line minutes next year.

I'm thinking he's in top 6 because he's the 2nd best RH winger, I think Boone will play C.

I would probably prefer Marchenko higher in lineup than Roslovic or Sillinger, the other RH options.

 

[majormajor]

I'm thinking he's in top 6 because he's the 2nd best RH winger, I think Boone will play C.

I would probably prefer Marchenko higher in lineup than Roslovic or Sillinger, the other RH options.

Boone and Cole are LH.

The importance of handedness for wingers really depends on the player. Last we saw LH Texier, he was killing it on RW. So Marchenko might be the 2nd best RH winger, but we might have a few better options at RW. I'm still not sure if he's top 6 quality.

It also sounds like Babs will value L-R combinations for faceoffs, and wants two center capable players per line. So that might work to Marchenko's disadvantage with only room for one pure winger per line.

 

[VT]

Boone and Cole are LH.

The importance of handedness for wingers really depends on the player. Last we saw LH Texier, he was killing it on RW. So Marchenko might be the 2nd best RH winger, but we might have a few better options at RW. I'm still not sure if he's top 6 quality.

It also sounds like Babs will value L-R combinations for faceoffs, and wants two center capable players per line. So that might work to Marchenko's disadvantage with only room for one pure winger per line.

Marchenko played left wing in Russia, while Chinakhov played right wing. Minimum Kirill feels better on the left. Under Lars they started playing on opposite sides.

 

[squashmaple]

Marchenko played left wing in Russia, while Chinakhov played right wing. Minimum Kirill feels better on the left. Under Lars they started playing on opposite sides.

I wonder if he was put on the right because Larsen felt most secure with Gaudreau and KJ on the left and they wanted him in the top six (and we didn't have any RW besides Laine who was also hurt). If KJ's a center, Marchenko could go back to the left. That's an interesting lineup.

Gaudreau - Jenner - Laine
Marchenko - Johnson - Chinakhov/Texier/Roslovic?

maybe

if only we still had a defensively reliable middle-six RW under team control for five mil a year for the next four years.

 

[stevo61]

I wonder if he was put on the right because Larsen felt most secure with Gaudreau and KJ on the left and they wanted him in the top six (and we didn't have any RW besides Laine who was also hurt). If KJ's a center, Marchenko could go back to the left. That's an interesting lineup.

Gaudreau - Jenner - Laine
Marchenko - Johnson - Chinakhov/Texier/Roslovic?

maybe

if only we still had a defensively reliable middle-six RW under team control for five mil a year for the next four years.

I think Fantilli steals a top 6 spot fairly quickly so I kind of expect the Johnson is a center thing to be put on hold for a bit.

Edit: maybe something like this becomes an option although not perfect.

Gaudreau-Jenner-Laine
Johnson-Fantilli-Roslovic
Texier-Sillinger/Danforth-Marchenko

 

[cbjthrowaway]

You can't leave out that we've had players leave after/during their bridge deal. We never even had a chance to get them on an 8 year deal.

that's a fair point.

imo the worst case scenario with a bridge deal is that the player does what guys like tkachuk, debrincat and dubois did – using the qualifying offer as leverage to force a sign-and-trade. i'm not convinced that that scenario isn't preferable to having a player leave as a UFA at age 28-29, though.

obviously columbus has been through both of these scenarios with panarin and PLD, but there were some other factors there (position, drama) that make it an imperfect comparison. the more direct one is calgary losing gaudreau and tkachuk in the same offseason – i'm sure most of them will tell you that tkachuk's departure didn't sting as much as johnny's.

That's part of the calculation for Ottawa too. I don't think there's much risk that Sanderson is going to earn $10m with his play next year, so his contract would seem unnecessary. But this way they've got the whole core wrapped up and they don't need to worry about guys forcing trades anymore.

yeah i 100% agree with this.

if you bridge sanderson (say, 3 years at $6m) you're getting an extra $2m each of those years. if he really pops off, he probably ends up getting $9-10m, which is market value for a couple years but then becomes a bargain in the back-end of the contract.

 

[thebus88]

if only we still had a defensively reliable middle-six RW under team control for five mil a year for the next four years.

Other than the complete lack of depth at defense and center, another thing I thought we needed to change was the composition of the wingers/forwards.

Surely the influx of Fantilli/Texier/Voronkov is going to help in this regard, but, we will see just how good they can be as “two way” players.

It would sure be nice to have some different players other than Kuraly/Robinson/Olivier to be out there playing a regular shift in the 3rd to close out games.

Up a goal or 2, roll Texier-Jenner-Voronkov.

 

[thebus88]

I think Fantilli steals a top 6 spot fairly quickly so I kind of expect the Johnson is a center thing to be put on hold for a bit.

Why would those 2 things really impact one another? You see Fantilli as a center? I’m not sure he’s (more effective as) a center any more than Johnson is. Just continuing to spitball, those 2 guys are probably about as good of a bet to be a “pair” on a given line to start the year to benefit from any past chemistry. Unless 1 of them comes in looking good enough to be put on the top line.

Edit: maybe something like this becomes an option although not perfect.

Gaudreau-Jenner-Laine
Johnson-Fantilli-Roslovic
Texier-Sillinger/Danforth-Marchenko

I still think Gaudreau/Laine should be split up. The question is who you still put with Jenner and who the other winger should be, and I really don’t know.

Seeing these lineups with Roslovic where he is at is disheartening. Playing with our 2 most promising forwards? No way. He’s somebody like Kuraly who should be playing minimal “4th line” minutes or should be scratched. I literally forgot about Danforth for a bit there. I don’t think there’s any way Babcock will play Kuraly over Danforth or a couple other guys, and I’m interested how those 2 end up working together. I know some don’t like my “vibes” until they’re no longer able to be denied, but, I don’t see Babcock liking what Kuraly brings to the ice and I don’t see Kuraly handling Babcock’s apparent honesty very well.

 

[Cowumbus]

Why would those 2 things really impact one another? You see Fantilli as a center? I’m not sure he’s (more effective as) a center any more than Johnson is. Just continuing to spitball, those 2 guys are probably about as good of a bet to be a “pair” on a given line to start the year to benefit from any past chemistry.

I don’t recall them ever playing together.

 

[VT]

The first line is horrible.
Besides, Jenner should be on the third line. Not only there is nothing wrong with that, see Reinhardt in Florida during the PO, also his back such big minutes he can't hold up.

@stevo61 Roslovic in the second line.... I don't know. Only if with Laine, they have excellent chemistry.

 

[majormajor]

Why would those 2 things really impact one another? You see Fantilli as a center? I’m not sure he’s (more effective as) a center any more than Johnson is. Just continuing to spitball, those 2 guys are probably about as good of a bet to be a “pair” on a given line to start the year to benefit from any past chemistry. Unless 1 of them comes in looking good enough to be put on the top line.

I could see KJ being a better center than Fantilli, it's not clear to me right now. I could also see them as a pair, great playmaker with a great catch and release shooter. Perhaps they'll share center duties someday on a line, though Babs will probably want a veteran center in each pair [and a righty for faceoffs]. To be clear they've never been on the same club.

Seeing these lineups with Roslovic where he is at is disheartening. Playing with our 2 most promising forwards? No way. He’s somebody like Kuraly who should be playing minimal “4th line” minutes or should be scratched. I literally forgot about Danforth for a bit there. I don’t think there’s any way Babcock will play Kuraly over Danforth or a couple other guys, and I’m interested how those 2 end up working together. I know some don’t like my “vibes” until they’re no longer able to be denied, but, I don’t see Babcock liking what Kuraly brings to the ice and I don’t see Kuraly handling Babcock’s apparent honesty very well.

Roslovic has often started terribly but who knows under Babcock. He might be all over him. I also think Babs will love Danforth and might play him high up.

 

[stevo61]

Why would those 2 things really impact one another? You see Fantilli as a center? I’m not sure he’s (more effective as) a center any more than Johnson is. Just continuing to spitball, those 2 guys are probably about as good of a bet to be a “pair” on a given line to start the year to benefit from any past chemistry. Unless 1 of them comes in looking good enough to be put on the top line.



I still think Gaudreau/Laine should be split up. The question is who you still put with Jenner and who the other winger should be, and I really don’t know.

Seeing these lineups with Roslovic where he is at is disheartening. Playing with our 2 most promising forwards? No way. He’s somebody like Kuraly who should be playing minimal “4th line” minutes or should be scratched. I literally forgot about Danforth for a bit there. I don’t think there’s any way Babcock will play Kuraly over Danforth or a couple other guys, and I’m interested how those 2 end up working together. I know some don’t like my “vibes” until they’re no longer able to be denied, but, I don’t see Babcock liking what Kuraly brings to the ice and I don’t see Kuraly handling Babcock’s apparent honesty very well.

Its the whole lefty right lineup. Im trying to think of different options Babcock might consider. Im a fan of splitting Gaudreau/Laine as basically all my lineups suggest it but I think Babcock will try to give him a good oppurtunity offensively. Will be interesting regardless.

Detroit also loved Dan Cleary for no reason so we'll see what seemingly random player Babcock will love here

 

[cbjthrowaway]

Detroit also loved Dan Cleary for no reason so we'll see what seemingly random player Babcock will love here

the smart money is on danforth/blankenburg but i personally think he's going to go nuts for texier.

 

[Marioesque]

Boone and Cole are LH.

The importance of handedness for wingers really depends on the player. Last we saw LH Texier, he was killing it on RW. So Marchenko might be the 2nd best RH winger, but we might have a few better options at RW. I'm still not sure if he's top 6 quality.

It also sounds like Babs will value L-R combinations for faceoffs, and wants two center capable players per line. So that might work to Marchenko's disadvantage with only room for one pure winger per line.

Yeah I know Boone is LH ( I meant he wont take a winger spot) but thanks for the correction on Sillinger.

That just adds to the point. if Marchenko isn't in the top 2 lines, then Roslovic is for sure.

 

[majormajor]

That just adds to the point. if Marchenko isn't in the top 2 lines, then Roslovic is for sure.

Could be Danforth or Chinakhov or Voronkov or Texier or someone I haven't thought of yet. New coach and largely new players.

 

[Marioesque]

Could be Danforth or Chinakhov or Voronkov or Texier or someone I haven't thought of yet. New coach and largely new players.

Other than Danforth they're all lefties and will not compete for the same position as Marchenko, as Babcock wants to have sticks to boards so handedness will be a deciding factor.

So it's Roslovic, Danforth. And yeah I really like Danforth but more as a 3/4 C than a winger in top lines. His shot is not ideal, even though almost everything else is on good level. I'd prefer Marchenko over him and Roslovic.

Oh well, camp will tell

 

[majormajor]

Other than Danforth they're all lefties and will not compete for the same position as Marchenko, as Babcock wants to have sticks to boards so handedness will be a deciding factor.

So it's Roslovic, Danforth. And yeah I really like Danforth but more as a 3/4 C than a winger in top lines. His shot is not ideal, even though almost everything else is on good level. I'd prefer Marchenko over him and Roslovic.

Oh well, camp will tell

Good point about sticks to boards.

One reason I like Danforth with skill players is that he can dig out pucks for them. Marchenko is great in front of the net but not as good on the wall/corners.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

According to 32T podcast. It is believed that the salary cap will raise 4.5 million after this year, and 5+ million the next year.

 

[CBJx614]

According to 32T podcast. It is believed that the salary cap will raise 4.5 million after this year, and 5+ million the next year.

With what money? That would be nice but that seems like a lot.

All of a sudden Werenski, Severson and Gaudreau are absolute steals and if that's the case we need to take a risk and get KJ/Jiricek locked up long term ASAP

 

[majormajor]

All of a sudden Werenski, Severson and Gaudreau are absolute steals and if that's the case we need to take a risk and get KJ/Jiricek locked up long term ASAP

I'd say the cap going up by $10m or so might be enough to take Werenski and Severson from
"strategic overpay" to okay middle of the road contracts. I can't imagine they count as absolute steals in any scenario here.

KJ should be extended ASAP, on that I'd agree. But I imagine his number now starts with an 8. The Sanderson deal has assured it.

 

[NotWendell]

Other than the complete lack of depth at defense and center...

I disagree that we have a complete lack of depth at defense.

Another thought unrelated to this, only Z and Gaudreau should be penciled in on the first line. Second worst team in the league last year, new coach incoming, so every other slot should be up for grabs.

 

[NotWendell]

the smart money is on danforth/blankenburg but i personally think he's going to go nuts for texier.

I could totally see it being Danforth