Speculation: Armchair GM - 2025 Offseason Thread
- Thread starter koteka
- Start date
I don't think Columbus should get too hung up on wanting specifically a right-handed top 4 defenseman. They should get one that complements their roster best, regardless of handedness. For me, the top targets in terms of UFAs, trades and offer sheets are Gavrikov, Pelech and Samberg, respectively. Note that they are all left-handed. I see a lot of flexibility with one of those three:
- Werenski / Fabbro – New Guy / Mateychuk – Christiansen / Severson – Gudbranson
- Werenski / Fabbro – New Guy / Severson – Mateychuk / Gudbranson – Christiansen
- New Guy / Werenski – Mateychuk / Fabbro – Severson / Gudbranson – Christiansen
Iron Balls McGinty
Registered User
- Aug 5, 2005
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Feels like Edmonton has been in the goalie market since the dawn of time.
I dreamt last night that both Fabbro and Provorov walked via FA, and our D was suddenly frighteningly bad. For what it’s worth. lol
Grass is always greener. Remember Gavrikov????
Jive Pawnbroker
One day next week
You are a true Blue Jackets fan - I haven’t had a hockey-related dream in years lol.
Y'all were not moving Elvis this off-season. Have you listened to DW?! I'm pretty confident we're going into next season with Elvis and Jet competing for the net until one of them establishes themselves. The only way we get rid of Elvis is if he becomes a true locker room cancer because he's gotta fight for the net (or something along those lines)
CBJWerenski8
Formerly CBJWennberg10 (RIP Kivi)
- Jun 13, 2009
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I no longer believe Elvis will be bought out anymore but I do think DW will look to move him if possible.
Seemed like normal GM talk to me. I'd imagine he looks for an upgrade and if it doesn't happen he hasn't said anything bad to put Elvis in a sour mood if he comes back.
If he is back he should be prepared to share the net and Dean has to be more inclined to play the hot hand and not the guy with the bigger contract
Iron Balls McGinty
Registered User
- Aug 5, 2005
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I'm pretty sure he relied on every Minnesota goalie he ever had more than he did Tarasov.
Waddell about Severson (17:50->): "Forget about his contract, he's going to be a Blue Jacket and capable of being a top-4 guy"
From now on I don't think we can seriously exclude Severson from the top-6 in next year's lineup discussions. How this decision will affect Fabbro's and Gudbranson's future with the team and Waddell's trade/FA plans, I'm not sure.
I thought Evason's comments about his process with Fantilli were very interesting. I had mentioned my curiosity about what those meetings were like, because Fantilli was making very repetitive mistakes. Apparently all of the coaches were showing him those and starting to get frustrated, and eventually Deano did tell Fantilli that he was going to be watching from the press box if it continued. And so perhaps not coincidentally, Fantilli immediately cleaned some of that up.
I'd still love to know how they made the decision to put him back at center, after his one sterling game on Monahan's wing, just to see what was driving that decision.
I'm not so sure one way or another. Wads doesn't want to box himself into a trade, but I'd expect him to look for one. It's hard to see Evason readily changing his view on Severson, and it's hard to see Severson changing much. This wasn't a down year for him, it's just the way he plays, and it's not to our coach's taste.
I'd still love to know how they made the decision to put him back at center, after his one sterling game on Monahan's wing, just to see what was driving that decision.
I'm not so sure one way or another. Wads doesn't want to box himself into a trade, but I'd expect him to look for one. It's hard to see Evason readily changing his view on Severson, and it's hard to see Severson changing much. This wasn't a down year for him, it's just the way he plays, and it's not to our coach's taste.
He's also said he tried multiple times while in Carolina to trade for Elvis. Just like every GM ever, he's going to try to improve the defense in front of the net and bank on an improved defense as well as a healthy competition in net. We absolutely have to have someone in net that can push and compete with Elvis. As @Iron Balls McGinty points out, it's pretty clear Evason didn't think Tarasov was capable of that. With Jet and hopefully one more competent body to compete and push for time from Cleveland, we should get a nice battle for playing time.
Elvis felt absolutely 0 pressure for playing time and as we all know, he's not capable of being that guy...
Waddell said he's already talked with Evason and it sounded that they've all agreed they're going into next season with a clean slate, so I think it's best to believe a Severson trade this offseason is an extremely unlikely scenario.
I wonder if they try to find a new and ideal LD partner for him. But if...
- Severson is one of the top-6 RDs
- Fabbro and Provorov are extended
- Werenski-Fabbro is the top pair
- Mateychuk isn't traded
- Mateychuk and Provorov can't be a pair anymore
- Mateychuk or Provorov can't be Severson's partner
...then there seems to be no solution to the puzzle. So which of the premises can't be true?
My best guess right now is that Severson and Fabbro are going to stay, Gudbranson is 7D, and another RD to round out the top-6 will be a new guy. We know Waddell wanted Trouba at the time Gudbranson was injured, and IIRC there were rumors about Carlo at one point. I think Waddell has his eyes on RDs with similar toolset.
With at least one addition, the top-6 at the end of camp could be:
Werenski -- Fabbro
Provorov -- RD
Mateychuk -- Severson (presumes impressive showing at the camp, without any defensive blunders)
or
Werenski -- Fabbro
LD -- Severson
Mateychuk -- RD
,where RD = Trouba/Carlo/Pulock type defensive D, and LD = Provorov's better and/or cheaper replacement.
Double-Shift Lasse
Just post better
Can't bring back everyone and also sign new, better players. I feel like this has ben someone's mantra...
UFAs
Danforth
Fischer
TF-W
Gambrell
Fabbro
JMFJ
Kunin
Kuraly
LaBate
Labanc
Provorov
Sawchenko
O. Sillinger
JVR
Who I would try to bring back:
1) Fabbro
2) JVR
3) Kuraly or Danforth
4) Gambrell or Fischer on a 2 way (vet with NHL experience in Cleveland)
5) TF-W on a 2 way
6) O. Sillinger on a 2 way
I let RFAs OJB-H and Tarasov go.
That opens up some spots. LDBB moves up. Greaves moves up. Maybe Hunt moves up.
- We can all agree that a clean slate is good but doesn't it seem that the part of Severson's game that Evason doesn't like is probably not going to change?
- Personally I can readily imagine Mateychuk - Severson working as a second pairing. If that's actually your third best pair then you probably have high end D depth. I suppose I'm imagining some moderate improvement from Mateychuk.
- I would guess that our third pair might be something like
Hunt / Christiansen / Svozil / Richard - Gudbranson / Severson
Having that many young LD, there's a decent chance one of them takes a step.
- I don't love that it still leaves us without a real shutdown pairing. I could imagine a shutdown pairing of Pelech - Severson crushing it with zone denials but I can't imagine Evason ever trying that. That's not how he views Severson.
EspenK
Registered User
- Sep 25, 2011
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I watched parts of the TB-Fla game last night and I was trying to imagine the Jackets standing up to the physical play, especially FL's. It was kind of hard. It was good to hear DW say that we have to get bigger, especially on the 4th line. Am I alone in thinking we are not a physical enough team?
New defensively supportive LD to play with Severson doesn't necessarily make Severson's flaws any more likable for Evason, but it can make him playable, which appears to be Waddell's goal.
An extended Provorov would cost a lot more than 3rd pair dmen do, meaning that it wouldn't make sense playing him anywhere else than in the top-4, and that is why Mateychuk would have to be bumped down from 2LD.
So there would be no Provorov?
Your thinking doesn't seem to align with Waddell's comments. Evason must be open to the idea that Severson could look fine next to a right type of LD they don't happen to have yet.
Double-Shift Lasse
Just post better
That's why I felt like the Severson thing was going to be the most interesting and the linchpin thing for the offseason, because of the perception that the coach doesn't trust him.
Then GMDW comes out and says "he's a Blue Jacket" and it's like well there you go I wonder what HCDE thinks about that. Plus the fact Waddell already said (implied?) he'd like to bring back Fabbro and Provorov (now maybe what went unsaid there is "if both will sign for below-market contracts" I don't know but he said it).
Anyway my feeling was "Severson or Provorov but not both." But if it's both, that makes finding slots for having better players in your lineup more tricky.
Ordering our D pairs in an attempt to make new contracts make sense is going to be a lot of fun. Can't wait.
(snark is not directed at you)
Now that you mention it, Provorov is probably back too.
Maybe we can pull off D pairs like
Werenski - Fabbro
Provorov - Pulock
Mateychuk - Severson
That's excellent depth and the middle pair is maybe shutdown capable?? The analytics on Pulock this year though weren't good, same #4ish territory as Provorov. That Mateychuk-Severson pairing might be better.
I think Evason genuinely is open to the idea that Severson will have a chance in camp, clean slate. But I suspect the actual likelihood of that working out is more dependent on Severson himself improving, which I don't expect to happen.
I didn't hear a comment from Evason or Wads about getting a new D partner for Severson or that being the key to fix the issue. Did they say that?
You are not alone. Some of our bigger guys like Werenski and Marchenko aren’t too physical and we probably don’t want them to be overly physical. Fantilli is learning but not there yet. We have the best fighter in the game and Gudbranson, but I look at some of the hits and I don’t see the current CBJ team doing similar things. I think we are built more for “Don’t take cheap shots against our young guys” than violent playoff hockey. The 2018-19 team would push around this team.
