Armchair GM - 2025 Offseason Thread

[cbjthrowaway]

It's obviously a nice lineup if all of that breaks our way.

- I would say a top six F is not a primary need for us. We can upgrade but we're starting from the position of being f'ing loaded. #1 5v5 offense in the NHL.

tops in 5v5 scoring but far from it in xGF, and noticeably struggled to find goals when games tightened up.

also quite bad on the road, when they lost the last change. because they were a one line team.

johnson and fantilli flashed down the stretch. finding a third wheel who can make them more dangerous in the zone (and put KJ back on the left side) and up-level the power play is a priority.

- What are you paying those UFAs? I suppose it's possible that all of Boeser's warts are fully priced in, but most likely with all of the clubs needing to sign someone (and more desperate for offense than we are) he will get paid beyond reason.

it’s a message board and they have over $40m of cap. no need to waste time on the specifics of every contract. suffice to say that this exercise assumes reasonable costs for each player.

- Which of the D get to play on the PP?

PP1 would have werenski at the point, kj/marchy on the flanks, and boeser/monahan trading off bumper/netfront duties.

the power play was a problem last year, and part of that was getting zero production from PP2.

in this example, mateychuk and dobson both go on PP2. likely dobson up top and mateychuk coming downhill on the left, fantilli in the right circle, voronkov netfront and jenner/hoglander/whoever at bumper.

alternatively, it’s not like dobson and werenski couldn’t coexist on PP1. besides, if werenski gets hurt, having a guy like dobson keeps that unit humming.

- It's a good roster but just odd from a priorities perspective. We need a play stopper on the backend and a massive improvement to the overall team defense. And you went out and got us an expensive one way forward and an expensive PP QB.

you’re massively underselling dobson. possession is defense, and without the puck he’s still a better play stopper than most of the “play stoppers” available.

the athletic had him at a net +11 rating this year, and none of that was as a PP merchant. he drove play at 5v5 offensively (+6) and defensively (+5).

that’s higher than werenski (+4) and tied with fabbro. and significantly higher than provorov (+2).

dean loves to lean on his top four. dobson is a high-end two-way play driver who can handle huge minutes.

i also included orlov as a short-term add there. he’d pair well with dobson in that capacity as well, if mateychuk needs a bit more time.

as for boeser, he adds elements to their power play that they sorely lacked and produces at a borderline top line clip without being puck needy.

he’s not a marner, or an ehlers, or a tuch. but he’s a more realistic target and works as a complimentary veteran forward. but maybe they aim higher.

either way, adding a top six forward is good even if it isn’t a player who unilaterally solves the team defense issues. it pushes jenner down to L3 where he can anchor a dedicated matchup line. he’s far better suited for that than sillinger was, for example.

Is this for a video game, by chance?

no, don’t be silly, it’s for an internet message board. real serious stuff.

 

[majormajor]

Provorov has been playing on his off-side because Severson has consistently underperformed, and Mateychuk was elevated to a pair higher than he’s probably ready for — ideally, he should be on the third pair for at least another season.

I'd put it a little differently.

Our second pairing to start the year was Christiansen - Severson:

xGF%: 48%
GF 22 GA 15

Our second pairing to finish the year was Mateychuk - Provorov

xGF%: 42%
GF 26 GA 21

Over the course of the season Evason came to think of Severson as a guy who couldn't be trusted to play with a rookie. He trusts Provorov more, for obvious reasons, but that isn't because of the results, which we can all see were fine for Severson.

Mateychuk - Provorov actually had a heck of a time on breakouts, often getting stuck in their end because they couldn't make a good outlet pass. They ended up outscoring a lot of their problems, which I imagine is maybe partly due to Mateychuk's skill, but as with most of our players is probably more to do with sharing the ice with hot shooters like Fantilli and Marchenko.

 

[majormajor]

it’s a message board and they have over $40m of cap. no need to waste time on the specifics of every contract. suffice to say that this exercise assumes reasonable costs for each player.

I think the assumption of reasonable costs doesn't really mean much since we haven't discussed or agreed upon what that reasonable cost is and we don't know if any UFAs are available for "reasonable cost", depending on how we define it.

You're not under any obligation to share what you would pay Brock Boeser, but absent that you're essentially just saying "wouldn't it be nice to have this guy", which doesn't say much.

For the most part I treat UFA like "which of these guys would it make sense for our organization to be the highest bidder for (to overpay for)?" You have like two dozen teams intending to spend a wad of newfound cap space in UFA, some of them with big defensive problems, some of them with big offensive problems, some with a lot of RFA age talent, some with little. Where do we fit in that?

I'm not entirely ruling out though that there are maybe players who would just fit really well here, perhaps you're right that our guys like Fantilli and KJ would be especially good at helping Boeser get into the offensive zone. No one wanted Boeser at the deadline so it's possible his UFA price is low enough, though I think most likely some GM like Francis is going to get desperate.

you’re massively underselling dobson. possession is defense, and without the puck he’s still a better play stopper than most of the “play stoppers” available.

the athletic had him at a net +11 rating this year, and none of that was as a PP merchant. he drove play at 5v5 offensively (+6) and defensively (+5).

that’s higher than werenski (+4) and tied with fabbro. and significantly higher than provorov (+2).

dean loves to lean on his top four. dobson is a high-end two-way play driver who can handle huge minutes.

That all sounds good to me. I don't know Dobson well. But I suspect that his value will be inflated by teams wanting a PP QB. I'm also wondering, based on what I'm hearing from Isles fans about Dobson's lackadaisical defense, that perhaps he's like a souped up Severson. We've got to get Deano a guy who is good in shutdown roles and that he'll trust in shutdown roles. If they're too soft I don't think he'll use them that way.

 

[koteka]

For the most part I treat UFA like "which of these guys would it make sense for our organization to be the highest bidder for (to overpay for)?" You have like two dozen teams intending to spend a wad of newfound cap space in UFA, some of them with big defensive problems, some of them with big offensive problems, some with a lot of RFA age talent, some with little. Where do we fit in that?

In auction theory it is called the winner’s curse. Basically when bidding against others and there is incomplete information (how a guy will perform in the future) the winner pays too much and often regrets it. A great CBJ example is Gudbranson. We got him to come here, but nobody liked the contract.

 

[Theo Von]

here's where i see things heading into the offseason

• primary needs:
  1. one top four defenseman (ideally RH)
  2. top six F (ideally RH)
  3. veteran goalie
• secondary needs:
  1. at least one additional defenseman (ideally good on the PK)
  2. middle six wing (either pacey forechecker or savvy play-connector)

offseason template:

• address primary needs with:
  • one big FA signing
  • one big trade
  • one short-term FA signing
• address secondary needs with:
  • low-cost change-of-scenery trade (s)
  • above-market AAV short-term UFA signing(s)

this isn't the best application of that template, but just as an example:

• re-signings:
  • dante fabbro - 4.75x4
  • justin danforth – 2x2
  • dmitry voronkov – 5.5x3
• trades
  • noah dobson in exchange for cole sillinger, luca marrelli, MIN 2025 1st and CBJ 2026 1st (top-5 prot.)
  • nils hoglander for damon severson + assorted future picks (assuming VAN struggles to sign willander and/or trades his rights for a forward)
  • matt dumba for a late-round pick
• UFA haul
  • RW brock boeser – a younger, up-leveled version of what JVR brought this year, great in the room, good play-connector, elite shot, elite netfront PP guy.
  • LD dmitry orlov – two-year deal at above market AAV – would be insurance in case mateychuk struggles, helps the PK, and can play up as needed. is a guy who waddell has a history with
  • G jake allen – timeshare in net with jet
  • C/RW nick bjugstad – short-term deal at above-market AAV – can reinforce the identity line, win face-offs, etc.
• other moves:
  • buyout elvis, trade chinakhov for a couple picks (unpopular, but clearly the FO is ready to move on)

lines:

voronkov - monahan - marchenko​

johnson - fantilli - boeser​

hoglander - jenner - olivier​

ZAR - bjugstad - danforth​

​

werenski - fabbro​

mateychuk - dobson​

orlov - dumba​

​

allen​

greaves​

​

boeser isn't my top choice, but feels realistic and fits their needs relatively well. these lines fit dean's MO as they'd have two clear scoring lines and two clear shutdown lines, both of which would be up-leveled from last season.

i do think there's going to be a market for severson – vancouver was connected to him earlier and marcus pettersson would be an ideal partner for him. maybe i'm shooting too high on the hoglander return, but the jackets were connected to him earlier this season.

will probably get some pushback on the dobson idea, but imo he and mateychuk would be a very nice pair in the long run. dobson may not be the pure shutdown type many here want, but mateychuk has a lot of gus forsling in his game and they'd be the cbj answer to what florida had in forsling-montour for a while, or perhaps a rebuilt version of the werenski-jones pair of yesteryear.

i really like the idea of flexing their short-term cap space to build an effective veteran pair around orlov and dumba. would help some of their PK woes and take the pressure off of mateychuk. in fact, orlov could play with dobson if they want to let denton cut loose in sheltered minutes.

they'd still have some cap to play around with – a reunion with nyquist (bumping hoglander or olivier down to the fourth line) would also make a lot of sense. he'd be a good PP2 bumper and help in the room and on the PK.

there’s absolutely no way i’d give up that package for noah dobson.

 

[stevo61]

Yes but cost controlled LDBB has to be tempting? Maybe we could work a crazy trade with Kotkaniemi and Severson too.

Morrow or Chatfield / Kotkaniemi for LDBB / Severson / pick

People complain about Sillinger so the obvious answer is to go get another one?

 

[cbjthrowaway]

In auction theory it is called the winner’s curse. Basically when bidding against others and there is incomplete information (how a guy will perform in the future) the winner pays too much and often regrets it. A great CBJ example is Gudbranson. We got him to come here, but nobody liked the contract.

sean monahan was viewed as an overpay too. and with similar complaints to boeser (slow, past his prime, injury prone)

per the athletic’s model, he’s already delivered over $11m of value. which is twice his AAV.

they signed gudbranson to add a single, specific missing element (toughness). if they think boeser (or any free agent) fits the roster and system, they could be getting a bargain.

 

[stevo61]

sean monahan was viewed as an overpay too. and with similar complaints to boeser (slow, past his prime, injury prone)

per the athletic’s model, he’s already delivered over $11m of value. which is twice his AAV.

they signed gudbranson to add a single, specific missing element (toughness). if they think boeser (or any free agent) fits the roster and system, they could be getting a bargain.

Some people saw it that way but Monahan's biggest concern was health. We got a better version of Monahan that pretty much everyone expected but we did still lose him for a significant amount of time which obviously hurt our odds.

Monahan did show things last year as a reliable vet that I'd argue Boeser has not. Monahan can impact a game in more ways than just on the scoresheet

 

[CannonFire1]

The only names mentioned so far that move the needle for me are Gavrikov and Weegar. Can't bank on landing the UFA target, so I'd see what Calgary might entertain for Weegar.

 

[EspenK]

The only names mentioned so far that move the needle for me are Gavrikov and Weegar. Can't bank on landing the UFA target, so I'd see what Calgary might entertain for Weegar.

Calgary just put up a 96 pt season, Weegar played over 24 minutes a game, was a +18 with 8g,39 assists.

I'd say they'd jump at an offer of Severson ++.

I think the best trading partners are teams looking to begin a rebuild or who have too many good d-men and are looking for young F's.

 

[Sdrawkcab321]

Mitch Marner or bust

 

[koteka]

People complain about Sillinger so the obvious answer is to go get another one?

If it gets rid of Severson it will be worth it.

 

[Ice9]

Be prepared to spend big bucks then hear people complain that we spent big bucks.

Pay em, trade em if you must but win…

“Qui Audet Adipiscitur”

 

[CannonFire1]

Calgary just put up a 96 pt season, Weegar played over 24 minutes a game, was a +18 with 8g,39 assists.

I'd say they'd jump at an offer of Severson ++.

I think the best trading partners are teams looking to begin a rebuild or who have too many good d-men and are looking for young F's.

Calgary should be looking to rebuild, and leveraging Weegar (age 31) to add some young forward talent + extra draft picks would be a good start. They don't have enough offensive talent to be legitimate contenders during what remains of his peak years.

 

[NotWendell]

People complain about Sillinger so the obvious answer is to go get another one?

People who complain about Sillinger are morons. He's only going to get better, just like he did this year.

 

[Fred Glover]

People who complain about Sillinger are morons. He's only going to get better, just like he did this year.

If not morons then they are legends in their own minds

 

[domi28]

People who complain about Sillinger are morons. He's only going to get better, just like he did this year.

For me it has nothing to do with whether he will get better or not. It has everything to do with making the team better. If Sillinger could be part of a trade that brings back a top6 winger or top4 RD I'm all for it. Those are more valuable positions to me than 3C even if Sillinger is a really high end 3C. I will freely admit I don't see Sillinger topping out as a 2C which is why I put his value at a 3C level. Florida/Boston/TB/Vegas/etc didn't win Stanley Cups by having 14 core guys. They won by identifying 3-4 core guys and the rest were expendable if it made the team better. They were not crippled by FOMO.

The only untouchables I would have are Werenski, Fantilli, Johnson, and Marchenko. The rest of the guys are available if it makes the team better, for the right price of course.

Sillinger for a 2nd round pick? Not a chance
Sillinger for a defensively responsible youngish 2RD? Yup, I'm making that trade every day of the week

 

[MoeBartoli]

The top priorities should be overhauling the goalie position by adding a 1A/B to pair with Jet and adding a top 4 RD. Fabbro isn’t a classic top pair D but he paired well with Zach. Mateychuk was a pair too high this year but will be fine next year so Provorov is out for me. I’d be happy to see Gud AND Severson gone which would necessitate adding a bottom pair DMan.

If the right top 6 forward - someone who’s a difference maker - fell into our lap, thru a favorable deal count me in. But I have zero interest in any trade involving Monahan, Marchenko, KJ, Fantilli and little interest in trading Voronkov or Jenner. All produce enough for top 6 roles and the latter two certainly provide big 3rd line production when slotted there.

Sillinger is capable as 3C. And LDBB is certainly shown he can be a middle 6 consideration. Overall our 5 on 5 results show we have offensive strength and enough forwards.

My preferred 4th line includes an off-season acquisition or Monster to join Danforth and Olivier, who can fill in when needed on the 3rd.

The wild card here is Chinakov. When healthy he’s shown he can be a top 6 winger. But can he stay healthy? That’s also no doubt the question among GMs that makes his trade value low and a poor tradeoff to the reward of a heathy Chinakov. It’s also a reason retain JVR who is a versatile offensive option.

 

[majormajor]

Is there anyone who thinks we shouldn't retain JVR? He seems like a fairly obvious keeper to me. He was one of our best forwards for a couple months.

 

[Cyclones Rock]

Is there anyone who thinks we shouldn't retain JVR? He seems like a fairly obvious keeper to me. He was one of our best forwards for a couple months.

I remember when Prospal was the leading scorer in 2012-13 and he wasn't brought back. I did not understand why. But no one else picked him up and IIRC he really wanted to play again. He was deemed too slow to be effective by the CBJ and, I suppose, everyone else.

I'll leave this one to the powers that be. If they think that his speed has diminished (or can reasonably expected to ) to the point where he isn't projected to be able to effectively play at the NHL level next season, then he should not be signed. He's very very slow and there is a point where his abilities in front of the offensive net, veteran presence and overall "smarts" aren't enough to balance out the lack of speed.

Personally, I'd like him back. But he's nearing the end of the line. I suppose he could be brought back at a small cap hit and if it doesn't work out his salary can be buried and he can skate into the sunset in the AHL-something that would (obviously) need to be an up front conversation between JVR and GMDW.

 

[stevo61]

I remember when Prospal was the leading scorer in 2012-13 and he wasn't brought back. I did not understand why. But no one else picked him up and IIRC he really wanted to play again. He was deemed too slow to be effective by the CBJ and, I suppose, everyone else.

I'll leave this one to the powers that be. If they think that his speed has diminished (or can reasonably expected to ) to the point where he isn't projected to be able to effectively play at the NHL level next season, then he should not be signed. He's very very slow and there is a point where his abilities in front of the offensive net, veteran presence and overall "smarts" aren't enough to balance out the lack of speed.

Personally, I'd like him back. But he's nearing the end of the line. I suppose he could be brought back at a small cap hit and if it doesn't work out his salary can be buried and he can skate into the sunset in the AHL-something that would (obviously) need to be an up front conversation between JVR and GMDW.

Wasn't it different in the sense I believe that's when Jarmo was hired and there was supposed to be a deal for Prospal to join the management group and Jarmo basically said that wasn't my deal so goodbye?

JVR should be cheap and I think completely understands his role and what he is so I think it would be great to have him back even if his play isn't that of any everyday guy

 

[koteka]

Is there anyone who thinks we shouldn't retain JVR? He seems like a fairly obvious keeper to me. He was one of our best forwards for a couple months.

JVR should be cheap and I think completely understands his role and what he is so I think it would be great to have him back even if his play isn't that of any everyday guy

His 23-24 contract was 1 season for $1 million. His 24-25 contract was 1 season for $900k. I think he was a valuable part of the team. Even if he is the 13th forward who plays 35 games, he will be a good presence in practice and the locker room. He obviously knows his role.

 

[majormajor]

The Leafs have become one of the best defensive teams in the league.

There are some teamwide factors of course but a lot of the credit goes to McCabe and Tanev on defense. Neither of those guys cost a fortune to acquire. That's just the Leafs identifying what they needed the most and focusing on that. We have similar needs at this point that the Leafs did a few years ago - we need a great shutdown pair.

 

[ColumbusTrill]

Wonder if Marner would consider us and if so how hard we go after him

 

[NotWendell]

Wonder if Marner would consider us and if so how hard we go after him

Wonder if we could spend the same money for top pairing defenseman and a veteran goalie?