Speculation: Armchair GM 2024-25 Season, Craig Conroy's Can Do Calgary Flames

[Flames Fanatic]

That's not at all what's happening. It's not a retool, it is actually a slow rolling natural rebuild.

Backlund- 36- 1 year remaining
Kadri- 35- 3 years remaining
Huberdeau- 32- 3 years remaining
Coleman- 34- 2 years remaining
Weegar- 31- 3 years remaining

Outside of Huberdeau and Weegar, the bulk of these guys are going to start to decline, possibly as early as next year. The contracts drop off each year.

Could a couple of these guys be replaced by what we currently have coming up? Yes, but in the top 6, our future talent is sketchy, at best. We're restocking the bottom half of our roster right now and hoping to get luck with a few top half guys along the way. Parekh could be a 1D, Coronato could be a top line RW and Wolf might be a great starter but outside of that, the top tier is lacking. In a couple of years we will be making these top 5 picks but the rebuild is 5 years away from being completed. This year is an anomaly.

If we have to pick a draft we have an anomaly at least it's this year not next potentially.

 

[Sparky93]

If we have to pick a draft we have an anomaly at least it's this year not next potentially.

Exactly. I'm quite content to watch some good hockey but I'm under no miscommunication that it's a sign of a team on the rise.

 

[crackdown44]

Hear me out. We offer sheet Rossi

Unfortunately I think at the number we’d have to hit for the Wild to not match we’d be giving up too much draft capital for a team that’s not certain to be drafting late. Love the player though

 

[DomBarr]

And what is an honest rebuild? This team was never going to draft top 5 without a burn it to the ground one. You would have to get rid of Kadri, Hube, Weegar, Ras, Backs, Coleman and Wolf for that. Then you are hoping you luck into a generational talent. or you just spend years spinning your wheels like Edmonton, Buffalo, Florida, Detroit, etc. Ownership was never going to go for that. The plan was to be competitive by 2027, they are on track for that. This was 3-4 year retool, not a rebuild.

They may be on track to be perennially competing for the 2nd wildcard (status quo same old Flames),
they are NOT on track to be true long term playoff contenders which needs them to change things up and actually step back from competing for the wildcard slots and accumulate picks and prospects to create and build sustainable depth throughout the organization. 1 year doesn't do that and acquiring 25 YO players may accelerates the timeline but it will actually shorten the window.
I am not necessarily saying tear it down, I am saying that right now the team should be open to trading any player over 30 IF the offers received exceed expectations AND they need to hold the line on term when extending 29/30 YO players (ie 5 yrs or less)

 

[Figgy44]

Hear me out. We offer sheet Rossi

Unfortunately I think at the number we’d have to hit for the Wild to not match we’d be giving up too much draft capital for a team that’s not certain to be drafting late. Love the player though

If we are outperforming expectations this year, then next year is risky if we fall back down to expectations. I dunno if it's wise to OS Rossi. It could potentially end up a situation where the picks sent for him are too valuable vs his value.

 

[Ledge And Dairy]

No we won't.

A 95.5m cap would have a floor of about 68m. We already have 58.36m committed to next year with Zary, Frost and Coronato as RFAs and would still need to sign (or promote) a goalie and another 4-5 skaters.

With only paying those 5 signings league min (they won't) and going with just a 22-man roster we'd only have to pay Zary, Frost and Coronato a combined 4-6m to reach the floor.

And the following year we have Wolf and Andersson up for new deals so reaching a floor of ~73m won't be an issue.

If the cap goes up to 95.5 next year the cap floor will be 15% less than the midpoint. To calculate the floor divide the ceiling by 1.15 to get the midpoint, then multiply that number by 0.85. Therefore the floor will be ~70.6M

For a 104M cap the floor will be ~76.1M, and for 113.5M, the floor will be ~83.9M

 

[crackdown44]

If we are outperforming expectations this year, then next year is risky if we fall back down to expectations. I dunno if it's wise to OS Rossi. It could potentially end up a situation where the picks sent for him are too valuable vs his value.

This is where I’m at too. Though it is worth noting we’re not really outperforming expectations based on how the team is playing. Goaltending is good but finishing is awful. We’re kind of right where we should be

We’re outperforming expectations based on how we all saw the roster this year. But I agree and think overall it’s probably too risky to make an offer sheet at a level we’d lose first round picks when guys like Kadri/Backlund/Coleman are poised to fall off

Even though I think Rossi is the kind of piece this team could desperately need

 

[Ledge And Dairy]

And what is an honest rebuild? This team was never going to draft top 5 without a burn it to the ground one. You would have to get rid of Kadri, Hube, Weegar, Ras, Backs, Coleman and Wolf for that. Then you are hoping you luck into a generational talent. or you just spend years spinning your wheels like Edmonton, Buffalo, Florida, Detroit, etc. Ownership was never going to go for that. The plan was to be competitive by 2027, they are on track for that. This was 3-4 year retool, not a rebuild.

I don't agree with that, I doubt anyone thought Wolf was going to get Vezina votes in his rookie season. Without his play this team would easily be bottom 5.

 

[Sparky93]

People also forget that players get old. Remember the guys that were still on the roster when we were picking 6th, 4th and 6th OA the last time? Not every single player needs to be moved out, in order to bottom out.

 

[Lunatik]

If the cap goes up to 95.5 next year the cap floor will be 15% less than the midpoint. To calculate the floor divide the ceiling by 1.15 to get the midpoint, then multiply that number by 0.85. Therefore the floor will be ~70.6M

For a 104M cap the floor will be ~76.1M, and for 113.5M, the floor will be ~83.9M

I just ballparked it without a calculator. But I also forgot Bahl in my list of guys that need a contract. So my point about not having difficulty reaching the floor stands.

 

[Yepthatsme]

Expected goals is not goals though. This team lacks finish and high end offensive skill. They will have to get more chances than most teams to score.

They still need an elite scorer or two to be truly competitive. Or else this team is trending towards the early 2004 version. An okay team with a great goalie.

Honestly this is turning in to a cop out answer. Huberdeau looks like he will pot 30 this year. Coronato is a plus goal scorer with room to grow. Sharangovich has a top notch shot and Kadri is a proven goal scorer. We just have a lot of offensive players getting hurt by percentages. All of Zary, Sharangovich, and Kadri are bottom 25 forwards in terms of on ice shooting percentage this season, getting worse results than the average 4th liner. Smart money would’ve had them as 3 of our top 5 scorers this year, so that’s some bug names getting hurt by poor luck. People have been recognizing Zary as “snake bit” because he’s one of our young up and comers, but it applies equally to the other 2 as well.

We’ve been roughly 20th in offense since the start of December, with some of our best goal scorers hurt/snakebit throughout the year and we just added two offensive minded players to replace less skilled guys in the top 9. We obviously still have to add to our forward group long term, but this is no longer bad offensive group:

Huberdeau-Kadri-Farabee
Coleman-Backlund-Coronato
Zary-Frost-Rango

Only 2 of those players aren’t at or around a 20 goal pace, and that’s with some career worst percentages for some of those players.

 

[Ledge And Dairy]

I just ballparked it without a calculator. But I also forgot Bahl in my list of guys that need a contract. So my point about not having difficulty reaching the floor stands.

I don't think we will have any difficulty reaching the floor. Hell, I've always thought reaching the floor was easy. Staying under the cap is the hard thing

 

[Yepthatsme]

I don't agree with that, I doubt anyone thought Wolf was going to get Vezina votes in his rookie season. Without his play this team would easily be bottom 5.

“Easily bottom 5”

Points percentage: 15th
Corsi: 10th
Fenwick: 11th
Shots for: 12th
Shots against: 20th
Goals for: 28th
Goals against: 15th
xGF: 18th
xGA: 19th
Scoring chances: 14th
Scoring chance against: 24th
High danger chances: 19th
High danger chances against: 21st

I could go for years. Only bottom 5 stats we have are goals for which since December 1st is 22nd, and PK which is also 22nd over that time frame. Your claim is systematically, categorically, and demonstrably false, and just rooted in a lot of strong opinions people had this offseason that were proven very wrong. Wolf makes us a lot better, but not that much better.

 

[Darth Vladar]

Honestly this is turning in to a cop out answer. Huberdeau looks like he will pot 30 this year. Coronato is a plus goal scorer with room to grow. Sharangovich has a top notch shot and Kadri is a proven goal scorer. We just have a lot of offensive players getting hurt by percentages. All of Zary, Sharangovich, and Kadri are bottom 25 forwards in terms of on ice shooting percentage this season, getting worse results than the average 4th liner. Smart money would’ve had them as 3 of our top 5 scorers this year, so that’s some bug names getting hurt by poor luck. People have been recognizing Zary as “snake bit” because he’s one of our young up and comers, but it applies equally to the other 2 as well.

We’ve been roughly 20th in offense since the start of December, with some of our best goal scorers hurt/snakebit throughout the year and we just added two offensive minded players to replace less skilled guys in the top 9. We obviously still have to add to our forward group long term, but this is no longer bad offensive group:

Huberdeau-Kadri-Farabee
Coleman-Backlund-Coronato
Zary-Frost-Rango

Only 2 of those players aren’t at or around a 20 goal pace, and that’s with some career worst percentages for some of those players.

Going by what I saw out of Frosty in these first two games, I’d put him with our natural shooters Coro and Rango, and slide Farabee into Coro’s old spot with Backs and Coleman. Pospy has already played with Naz and Huby at various points this season, so slide him in there again, and bump him to 4C/RW when Zary gets back.

 

[Figgy44]

Going by what I saw out of Frosty in these first two games, I’d put him with our natural shooters Coro and Rango, and slide Farabee into Coro’s old spot with Backs and Coleman. Pospy has already played with Naz and Huby at various points this season, so slide him in there again, and bump him to 4C/RW when Zary gets back.

Juggling the lines for a 2A, 2B, 2C type of top 9 scenario makes sense.

Farabee learning from Coleman makes sense on paper. Lots of similarities there even though there's a few distinct differences as well.

Frost immediately being slotted to play with shooters though, I'm not sure about that yet. I don't know how else that might look like though. Keep in mind he's intentionally had very little instructions on the system so far. Maybe you're right and Huska goes in that direction. But I feel like there's a different path they might use to try and ease him in vs throwing a line together to see if it takes off. Especially since Frost is in a contract year. No point in boosting his raw points total for a role that might not be his permanent role in Calgary and cause him to sign a contract that would quickly be an overpay once he is revised into more of a two way role.

But either way, I trust what Huska has planned for him.

 

[Rubi]

Everybody is putting up good arguments in support of our latest playoff quest and Conroy's latest statement that Andersson, Kadri, and Weegar are untouchable. However I'm still not convinced the most recent direction Conry is taking the team is the right direction. I just don't see the team having playoff success without one or two elite impact players and its my belief that the draft is the only way we can acquire them. I'm sorry if some of you believe trading Andersson and/or Kadri and limiting the number of games that Wolf plays, to 15 more, is sending the wrong message but its my belief that any short term pain will be more than made up for by the ling term gain we achieve through the draft.

 

[crackdown44]

“Easily bottom 5”

Points percentage: 15th
Corsi: 10th
Fenwick: 11th
Shots for: 12th
Shots against: 20th
Goals for: 28th
Goals against: 15th
xGF: 18th
xGA: 19th
Scoring chances: 14th
Scoring chance against: 24th
High danger chances: 19th
High danger chances against: 21st

I could go for years. Only bottom 5 stats we have are goals for which since December 1st is 22nd, and PK which is also 22nd over that time frame. Your claim is systematically, categorically, and demonstrably false, and just rooted in a lot of strong opinions people had this offseason that were proven very wrong. Wolf makes us a lot better, but not that much better.

I don’t know man. You can argue that finishing is probably lower than it should be but if we were running Vladar more often and Wolf was even playing average I’m quite confident we’d be bottom 10 at the very least

That being said it’s a good problem to have when your young guys exceed expectations

 

[Iggys Dome]

“Easily bottom 5”

Points percentage: 15th
Corsi: 10th
Fenwick: 11th
Shots for: 12th
Shots against: 20th
Goals for: 28th
Goals against: 15th
xGF: 18th
xGA: 19th
Scoring chances: 14th
Scoring chance against: 24th
High danger chances: 19th
High danger chances against: 21st

I could go for years. Only bottom 5 stats we have are goals for which since December 1st is 22nd, and PK which is also 22nd over that time frame. Your claim is systematically, categorically, and demonstrably false, and just rooted in a lot of strong opinions people had this offseason that were proven very wrong. Wolf makes us a lot better, but not that much better.

What about those stats screams anything but "mid" to you?

This team is contending for a playoff spot, and it's been really fun as a fan. But this idea that we're one or two pieces away from contending is asinine.

 

[Volica]

Everybody is putting up good arguments in support of our latest playoff quest and Conroy's latest statement that Andersson, Kadri, and Weegar are untouchable. However I'm still not convinced the most recent direction Conry is taking the team is the right direction. I just don't see the team having playoff success without one or two elite impact players and its my belief that the draft is the only way we can acquire them. I'm sorry if some of you believe trading Andersson and/or Kadri and limiting the number of games that Wolf plays, to 15 more, is sending the wrong message but its my belief that any short term pain will be more than made up for by the ling term gain we achieve through the draft.

I think it's pretty clear Conroy will do whatever it takes to make us a better team.

Here's my thoughts:
Rasmus Andersson is 28. His new contract would kick in when he's 29/30. He's clearly a top 4 defender, that does have some fun intangibles, in that he gets under skin and is mouthy as all hell.
IF you trade him, what is the realistic return? A 1st + a B-tier prospect? Is that worth it? It'll be from a playoff team so that pick will be down in the 20's somewhere; that B prospect? It's going to be a team's 5-6th best prospect. It's like we added Etienne Morin or Rory Kerins to our pool.

That said, if someone offered something incredibly stupid to Conroy, I think he'd take it pretty easily. Like if Buffalo said, 'we need help, we'll do Byram, Krebs and an unprotected first' Conroy would be driving Razzy to the airport himself.

Just think this team is build on the back of Wolf. He's going to steal too many games to be a Blackhawks/SJ kind of team. So instead of drafting 18th while we figure this out and take some runs to the playoffs... the alternative is picking 7th, 8th, 9th and missing the show. Even those picks aren't a sure-thing. You could get Quinn Hughes, or you could get Lias Anderson.

My honest opinion, and what I've been beating to death it seems recently. They need to just keep doing what they're doing, take advantage of these GMs who make dumb decisions (that Frost trade I think is going to go down as a really bad one for Philly) and keep developing youth. There's no quick plan here. There's no 'hey trade Kadri, Andersson, Weegar for anything and then we'll be good in 2027' magic happening.

 

[Yepthatsme]

What about those stats screams anything but "mid" to you?

This team is contending for a playoff spot, and it's been really fun as a fan. But this idea that we're one or two pieces away from contending is asinine.

Nothing about it screams contending, I was pointing out that calling us a bottom 5 team without Wolf is terribly false.

The fact that we are “mid” though with so many young players, prospects, and cap space is exciting though.

 

[Figgy44]

Everybody is putting up good arguments in support of our latest playoff quest and Conroy's latest statement that Andersson, Kadri, and Weegar are untouchable. However I'm still not convinced the most recent direction Conry is taking the team is the right direction. I just don't see the team having playoff success without one or two elite impact players and its my belief that the draft is the only way we can acquire them. I'm sorry if some of you believe trading Andersson and/or Kadri and limiting the number of games that Wolf plays, to 15 more, is sending the wrong message but its my belief that any short term pain will be more than made up for by the ling term gain we achieve through the draft.

Yes and no. I think most of us are just kinda cool either way. It's possible Conroy is still listening to those names, but with them "officially off the market" maybe it's a smokescreen so he has to deal with less lowballs from GMs?

I think the biggest "deal breakers" for scorched earth that most of us think that Conroy is being limited by ownership (refuse) and team. By team, I think the intention to avoid a potential death spiral situation like Edmonton, NJD and Buffalo endured by being too aggressive on adding talent and not focusing enough on development and culture.

There's also a difference between acknowledging that we believe this is the reason why the direction of the team is to go for playoffs this season, vs agreeing/disagreeing with it. It's not like together CFHF is part of the decision making that can change Conroy's mind. Quite a few of us would like to bottom out, but will live with the path that Conroy is on, of which a part of it is not his fault in some of our opinions.

If you disagree with Conroy's direction and you have some dirty pictures to share to potentially change the direction of the team, feel free to PM them to our mods to see if we can get something going.

I think it's too late to hope for a pick in the top 10 that Montreal can't grab. But potentially overachieving this year and bottoming out for real next year while the team continues to figure things out isn't a bad forecast either. One that could bind both ideas together and potentially build a long term contender.

If there's a way to boost the team even further and middle finger Montreal with a 20th OA ish pick, I'm all ears too.

 

[Zirakzigil]

I don't agree with that, I doubt anyone thought Wolf was going to get Vezina votes in his rookie season. Without his play this team would easily be bottom 5.

No they wouldnt be. You are underrating how horrendously bad teams like the Sharks and Hawks are this year.

 

[Flames Fanatic]

No they wouldnt be. You are underrating how horrendously bad teams like the Sharks and Hawks are this year.

I think on paper, especially going into this year, we SHOULD have been. But that's why the game isn't played on paper.

But we have a D-core that is constantly running thinner than a true playoff team should be. Our offense would be hilariously bad if Huberdeau wasn't having a much improved year. Etc. Etc.

A lot of young guys have made significant impacts. I think if this team was still running Mantha over Coronato sort of thing, we'd be in significantly worse shape too.

 

[Tkachuk Norris]

Honestly this is turning in to a cop out answer. Huberdeau looks like he will pot 30 this year. Coronato is a plus goal scorer with room to grow. Sharangovich has a top notch shot and Kadri is a proven goal scorer. We just have a lot of offensive players getting hurt by percentages. All of Zary, Sharangovich, and Kadri are bottom 25 forwards in terms of on ice shooting percentage this season, getting worse results than the average 4th liner. Smart money would’ve had them as 3 of our top 5 scorers this year, so that’s some bug names getting hurt by poor luck. People have been recognizing Zary as “snake bit” because he’s one of our young up and comers, but it applies equally to the other 2 as well.

We’ve been roughly 20th in offense since the start of December, with some of our best goal scorers hurt/snakebit throughout the year and we just added two offensive minded players to replace less skilled guys in the top 9. We obviously still have to add to our forward group long term, but this is no longer bad offensive group:

Huberdeau-Kadri-Farabee
Coleman-Backlund-Coronato
Zary-Frost-Rango

Only 2 of those players aren’t at or around a 20 goal pace, and that’s with some career worst percentages for some of those players.

Cop out answer? This teams highest scorer is 32nd of 32 in terms of highest scorers on their team.

Yes they have some solid young players in Zary, Coronato, Frost. But I think you’re kidding yourself if you think they have a single elite player outside of Wolf. Maybe Parekh can become that.

 

[Figgy44]

Cop out answer? This teams highest scorer is 32nd of 32 in terms of highest scorers on their team.

Yes they have some solid young players in Zary, Coronato, Frost. But I think you’re kidding yourself if you think they have a single elite player outside of Wolf. Maybe Parekh can become that.

Hmm... that doesn't seem to bode well IMO.

You're usually singing the praises of a potential elite talent years before they arrive. Even some late round guys you started tooting their horns before others noticed. It seems like we have a very solid pipeline, but one that is devoid of elite talent?

Hmm... Elite is something we can't just "get". We have to luck into it. Fingers crossed we find something soon to be excited about.