Speculation: Armchair GM 2024-25 Season, Craig Conroy's Can Do Calgary Flames

[Anglesmith]

lol saying it's all magic is a great way to excuse incompetence

I've said it before, but it is similar in concept to making a viral video. There are things you can do which are good or bad, objectively, but you can't force ultimate success. It is never purely in the hands of the organization to ensure that the team eventually wins a Cup.

It isn't about excusing incompetence. It is recognizing that it is possible to make zero mistakes and still lose. Teams can never win a Cup without it being due to incompetence. And because of this, Cup wins is a poor barometer of incompetence.

 

[Some Other Flame]

Yes, it's long been established that luck is a factor. But organizations have to put themselves in a position to get lucky, hence the old saying, "you have to be good to be lucky."

And did anyone actually say anything about cups wins? Someone did mention it'd be awfully nice to be a cup contender for a while, which for some inexplicable reason seems to be a sore spot for this fanbase in general.

Like I swear, there's a segment of flames fans that seem to, maybe subconsciously, think that only massive underdog teams that win in a hollywood-esque against-all-odds against some unbeatable behemoth count as actual cup wins. But being a year-in, year-out favourite to win and then at some point winning it all is somehow cheating.

 

[Volica]

Yes, it's long been established that luck is a factor. But organizations have to put themselves in a position to get lucky, hence the old saying, "you have to be good to be lucky."

And did anyone actually say anything about cups wins? Someone did mention it'd be awfully nice to be a cup contender for a while, which for some inexplicable reason seems to be a sore spot for this fanbase in general.

Like I swear, there's a segment of flames fans that seem to, maybe subconsciously, think that only massive underdog teams that win in a hollywood-esque against-all-odds against some unbeatable behemoth count as actual cup wins. But being a year-in, year-out favourite to win and then at some point winning it all is somehow cheating.

I’m team rebuild. I preface that before I write this next part out.

The NHL is essentially a contender league. Because the playoffs are pure chaos in terms of a luck factor, the best way to win in hockey is to constantly be in the playoffs with a good team (not squeaking in, but constantly being 102+ points).

There’s two ways in my opinion to do that:
1) luck out on generational stars. Avs are a shitty drafting team. But getting MacKinnon and Makar on one team is cake and eating it too.
2) be a drafting juggernaut. Yes, most teams get a foundational piece early in the draft (Hedman, Haiskanen) but look at Dallas. Their 5 highest scoring players? A guy that was called a cancer, two second rounders, a late first and a 5th thats been on their club for 15 years.

Flames have to embrace the draft, embrace taking other teams’ ‘problem’ players at discount, embrace keeping their stars above all else. You wonder where this team would be today if you add Tkachuk and Bennett back on the club and remove Huberdeau and Weegar.

 

[Anglesmith]

Yes, it's long been established that luck is a factor. But organizations have to put themselves in a position to get lucky, hence the old saying, "you have to be good to be lucky."

And did anyone actually say anything about cups wins? Someone did mention it'd be awfully nice to be a cup contender for a while, which for some inexplicable reason seems to be a sore spot for this fanbase in general.

Like I swear, there's a segment of flames fans that seem to, maybe subconsciously, think that only massive underdog teams that win in a hollywood-esque against-all-odds against some unbeatable behemoth count as actual cup wins. But being a year-in, year-out favourite to win and then at some point winning it all is somehow cheating.

I do hear that, but the reality is the Flames were a cup favourite per the most objective analysis as recently as 2022 and everyone seemed to manage to not enjoy that. The bitching and moaning paused for like 5 minutes at one point that year. And that was just a short three years after we were previously entering the playoffs as legit contenders in 2019.

Coming out of the lockout in 2005, the Flames were legit contenders each year for a few years, but didn't have success in the playoffs. But those were years (easy to forget after they are now decades ago) where you could book the playoff tickets during the pre-season.

So I really think that, to an extent, there is an element of chasing a feeling that doesn't exist. What seems to be the case is that fanbases celebrate the Cup or else are worried about never winning a Cup. Even if you get to the Cup final, you lose your last series and have to look at the reasons why and wonder if the reason why will be addressed.

By no means am I (and others) trying to suggest that the Flames haven't done things that constitute incompetent management during the last 30 years. Of course they've done some stupid shit. I think the conversation has gotten a little bit off base, but really this discussion starts with whether there is a case to be made that there is an objectively better path that Conroy could currently be following currently, or if we can give ourselves permission to just relax and cheer on the team with the understanding that this current path, as long as each move makes sense, has just as much expectation of success as any other.

 

[RasmusAndersson]

Should we look at bringing back Brodie for dirt cheap if Bahl is out long term? I wouldn’t pay more than like a 6th, and it sucks that he has one more year after this at 3.75, but he’d probably be a huge upgrade on Miro/Hanley and can easily transition to a bottom-pair role next year when needed. And he can play both sides.

Seems like a good value opportunity unless he has regressed a ton in the past year and a half.

 

[Freaky Styley]

What exactly is the breakdown of your value here? I could see Mitts and a 2nd for Kadri but I don't see Calgary doing Andersson for Ritchie 1 for 1

The way I see it, from a pure asset value standpoint, Mittlstadt has slightly more value around the league than Kadri. He's a top 6C, he's 8 years younger, and he's getting paid less for the next 2.5 seasons. Plus Kadri has a NTC and as many have said, the last 2 years of the deal probably won't look good. There's only a handful of teams that would be interested in Kadri's services, but probably 20+ teams after Mitts.

So the value breakdown is:

Mitts >= Kadri
Ritchie + 2nd = Andersson

Ritchie is more valuable than a mid 1st and the slight value of Mitts over Kadri fills the rest. Plus we know Kadri will waive to go back to Denver. Maybe there's a little more added due to an Andersson bidding war but I think it's close

Not for that return. Conroy wouldn’t move Andersson for that return let alone adding Kadri. He still hopes that they can squeak into a wildcard spot

If Conroy won't move a UFA rental for that package alone he needs to be relieved of his duties

 

[Ace Rimmer]

The way I see it, from a pure asset value standpoint, Mittlstadt has slightly more value around the league than Kadri. He's a top 6C, he's 8 years younger, and he's getting paid less for the next 2.5 seasons. Plus Kadri has a NTC and as many have said, the last 2 years of the deal probably won't look good. There's only a handful of teams that would be interested in Kadri's services, but probably 20+ teams after Mitts.

So the value breakdown is:

Mitts >= Kadri
Ritchie + 2nd = Andersson

Ritchie is more valuable than a mid 1st and the slight value of Mitts over Kadri fills the rest. Plus we know Kadri will waive to go back to Denver. Maybe there's a little more added due to an Andersson bidding war but I think it's close



If Conroy won't move a UFA rental for that package alone he needs to be relieved of his duties

I think the value is close. Maybe a bit of an add from Colorado but close enough to keep a discussion going.

It's one of those trades that you initially hate as a fan though because you're clearly giving up the two best players in the trade, but fits a longer term goal.

 

[Freaky Styley]

I think the value is close. Maybe a bit of an add from Colorado but close enough to keep a discussion going.

It's one of those trades that you initially hate as a fan though because you're clearly giving up the two best players in the trade, but fits a longer term goal.

Contract status plays a big part in trade value, especially from a fan perspective