Speculation: Armchair GM 2024-25 Season, Craig Conroy's Can Do Calgary Flames

[Anglesmith]

lol saying it's all magic is a great way to excuse incompetence

I've said it before, but it is similar in concept to making a viral video. There are things you can do which are good or bad, objectively, but you can't force ultimate success. It is never purely in the hands of the organization to ensure that the team eventually wins a Cup.

It isn't about excusing incompetence. It is recognizing that it is possible to make zero mistakes and still lose. Teams can never win a Cup without it being due to incompetence. And because of this, Cup wins is a poor barometer of incompetence.

 

[Some Other Flame]

Yes, it's long been established that luck is a factor. But organizations have to put themselves in a position to get lucky, hence the old saying, "you have to be good to be lucky."

And did anyone actually say anything about cups wins? Someone did mention it'd be awfully nice to be a cup contender for a while, which for some inexplicable reason seems to be a sore spot for this fanbase in general.

Like I swear, there's a segment of flames fans that seem to, maybe subconsciously, think that only massive underdog teams that win in a hollywood-esque against-all-odds against some unbeatable behemoth count as actual cup wins. But being a year-in, year-out favourite to win and then at some point winning it all is somehow cheating.

 

[Volica]

Yes, it's long been established that luck is a factor. But organizations have to put themselves in a position to get lucky, hence the old saying, "you have to be good to be lucky."

And did anyone actually say anything about cups wins? Someone did mention it'd be awfully nice to be a cup contender for a while, which for some inexplicable reason seems to be a sore spot for this fanbase in general.

Like I swear, there's a segment of flames fans that seem to, maybe subconsciously, think that only massive underdog teams that win in a hollywood-esque against-all-odds against some unbeatable behemoth count as actual cup wins. But being a year-in, year-out favourite to win and then at some point winning it all is somehow cheating.

I’m team rebuild. I preface that before I write this next part out.

The NHL is essentially a contender league. Because the playoffs are pure chaos in terms of a luck factor, the best way to win in hockey is to constantly be in the playoffs with a good team (not squeaking in, but constantly being 102+ points).

There’s two ways in my opinion to do that:
1) luck out on generational stars. Avs are a shitty drafting team. But getting MacKinnon and Makar on one team is cake and eating it too.
2) be a drafting juggernaut. Yes, most teams get a foundational piece early in the draft (Hedman, Haiskanen) but look at Dallas. Their 5 highest scoring players? A guy that was called a cancer, two second rounders, a late first and a 5th thats been on their club for 15 years.

Flames have to embrace the draft, embrace taking other teams’ ‘problem’ players at discount, embrace keeping their stars above all else. You wonder where this team would be today if you add Tkachuk and Bennett back on the club and remove Huberdeau and Weegar.

 

[Anglesmith]

Yes, it's long been established that luck is a factor. But organizations have to put themselves in a position to get lucky, hence the old saying, "you have to be good to be lucky."

And did anyone actually say anything about cups wins? Someone did mention it'd be awfully nice to be a cup contender for a while, which for some inexplicable reason seems to be a sore spot for this fanbase in general.

Like I swear, there's a segment of flames fans that seem to, maybe subconsciously, think that only massive underdog teams that win in a hollywood-esque against-all-odds against some unbeatable behemoth count as actual cup wins. But being a year-in, year-out favourite to win and then at some point winning it all is somehow cheating.

I do hear that, but the reality is the Flames were a cup favourite per the most objective analysis as recently as 2022 and everyone seemed to manage to not enjoy that. The bitching and moaning paused for like 5 minutes at one point that year. And that was just a short three years after we were previously entering the playoffs as legit contenders in 2019.

Coming out of the lockout in 2005, the Flames were legit contenders each year for a few years, but didn't have success in the playoffs. But those were years (easy to forget after they are now decades ago) where you could book the playoff tickets during the pre-season.

So I really think that, to an extent, there is an element of chasing a feeling that doesn't exist. What seems to be the case is that fanbases celebrate the Cup or else are worried about never winning a Cup. Even if you get to the Cup final, you lose your last series and have to look at the reasons why and wonder if the reason why will be addressed.

By no means am I (and others) trying to suggest that the Flames haven't done things that constitute incompetent management during the last 30 years. Of course they've done some stupid shit. I think the conversation has gotten a little bit off base, but really this discussion starts with whether there is a case to be made that there is an objectively better path that Conroy could currently be following currently, or if we can give ourselves permission to just relax and cheer on the team with the understanding that this current path, as long as each move makes sense, has just as much expectation of success as any other.

 

[RasmusAndersson]

Should we look at bringing back Brodie for dirt cheap if Bahl is out long term? I wouldn’t pay more than like a 6th, and it sucks that he has one more year after this at 3.75, but he’d probably be a huge upgrade on Miro/Hanley and can easily transition to a bottom-pair role next year when needed. And he can play both sides.

Seems like a good value opportunity unless he has regressed a ton in the past year and a half.

 

[Freaky Styley]

What exactly is the breakdown of your value here? I could see Mitts and a 2nd for Kadri but I don't see Calgary doing Andersson for Ritchie 1 for 1

The way I see it, from a pure asset value standpoint, Mittlstadt has slightly more value around the league than Kadri. He's a top 6C, he's 8 years younger, and he's getting paid less for the next 2.5 seasons. Plus Kadri has a NTC and as many have said, the last 2 years of the deal probably won't look good. There's only a handful of teams that would be interested in Kadri's services, but probably 20+ teams after Mitts.

So the value breakdown is:

Mitts >= Kadri
Ritchie + 2nd = Andersson

Ritchie is more valuable than a mid 1st and the slight value of Mitts over Kadri fills the rest. Plus we know Kadri will waive to go back to Denver. Maybe there's a little more added due to an Andersson bidding war but I think it's close

Not for that return. Conroy wouldn’t move Andersson for that return let alone adding Kadri. He still hopes that they can squeak into a wildcard spot

If Conroy won't move a UFA rental for that package alone he needs to be relieved of his duties

 

[Ace Rimmer]

The way I see it, from a pure asset value standpoint, Mittlstadt has slightly more value around the league than Kadri. He's a top 6C, he's 8 years younger, and he's getting paid less for the next 2.5 seasons. Plus Kadri has a NTC and as many have said, the last 2 years of the deal probably won't look good. There's only a handful of teams that would be interested in Kadri's services, but probably 20+ teams after Mitts.

So the value breakdown is:

Mitts >= Kadri
Ritchie + 2nd = Andersson

Ritchie is more valuable than a mid 1st and the slight value of Mitts over Kadri fills the rest. Plus we know Kadri will waive to go back to Denver. Maybe there's a little more added due to an Andersson bidding war but I think it's close



If Conroy won't move a UFA rental for that package alone he needs to be relieved of his duties

I think the value is close. Maybe a bit of an add from Colorado but close enough to keep a discussion going.

It's one of those trades that you initially hate as a fan though because you're clearly giving up the two best players in the trade, but fits a longer term goal.

 

[Freaky Styley]

I think the value is close. Maybe a bit of an add from Colorado but close enough to keep a discussion going.

It's one of those trades that you initially hate as a fan though because you're clearly giving up the two best players in the trade, but fits a longer term goal.

Contract status plays a big part in trade value, especially from a management perspective

 

[crackdown44]

The way I see it, from a pure asset value standpoint, Mittlstadt has slightly more value around the league than Kadri. He's a top 6C, he's 8 years younger, and he's getting paid less for the next 2.5 seasons. Plus Kadri has a NTC and as many have said, the last 2 years of the deal probably won't look good. There's only a handful of teams that would be interested in Kadri's services, but probably 20+ teams after Mitts.

So the value breakdown is:

Mitts >= Kadri
Ritchie + 2nd = Andersson

Ritchie is more valuable than a mid 1st and the slight value of Mitts over Kadri fills the rest. Plus we know Kadri will waive to go back to Denver. Maybe there's a little more added due to an Andersson bidding war but I think it's close



If Conroy won't move a UFA rental for that package alone he needs to be relieved of his duties

Not really relevant in the grand scheme of your proposal but just wanted to point out Andersson isn’t a rental, he’s got another year left after this one

 

[Freaky Styley]

Not really relevant in the grand scheme of your proposal but just wanted to point out Andersson isn’t a rental, he’s got another year left after this one

Oh my apologies, I'm mistaken. It is quite relevant and even more reason to be aggressive to add him. Avs would likely have to send more salary in the deal too in the form of Miles Wood or something. Anyways I think it's a decent framework if Conroy was to play ball.

 

[crackdown44]

Oh my apologies, I'm mistaken. It is quite relevant and even more reason to be aggressive to add him. Avs would likely have to send more salary in the deal too in the form of Miles Wood or something. Anyways I think it's a decent framework if Conroy was to play ball.

Two big ifs but I think if the Avs had Ritchie on the table and the Flames were willing to move Andersson, then they would also be willing to retain him down to 2.275

Makes a lot more sense than retaining on Kadri

 

[Mobiandi]

I’ve never really liked Mittlestadt. I think he’s terribly soft. It was strange that Buffalo chose to trade him as he was breaking out, but the Sabres are known for poorly evaluating their own players. Now that Colorado is trying to get rid of him, alarm bells should be going off.

There would be have to be a substantial add to Mittlestadt for Andersson to be going the other way. Adding Ritchie and Kadri makes things murkier.

I’d rather just do Mittlestadt for Kadri retained. Not a huge fan of Ritchie

 

[Bounces R Way]

Cal Ritchie would be a good get for Conroy and a prospect like him is an absolute need in a deal if Andersson is on the way out.

Should we look at bringing back Brodie for dirt cheap if Bahl is out long term? I wouldn’t pay more than like a 6th, and it sucks that he has one more year after this at 3.75, but he’d probably be a huge upgrade on Miro/Hanley and can easily transition to a bottom-pair role next year when needed. And he can play both sides.

Seems like a good value opportunity unless he has regressed a ton in the past year and a half.

Always liked Brodes but he is very cooked. Can't even hit 16 minutes ATOI for the Blackhawks. He's done as an effective NHL defenseman and we already have a nice collection of no upside filler. Play Solovyov or one of the other Wranglers D.

 

[crackdown44]

I’ve never really liked Mittlestadt. I think he’s terribly soft. It was strange that Buffalo chose to trade him as he was breaking out, but the Sabres are known for poorly evaluating their own players. Now that Colorado is trying to get rid of him, alarm bells should be going off.

There would be have to be a substantial add to Mittlestadt for Andersson to be going the other way. Adding Ritchie and Kadri makes things murkier.

I’d rather just do Mittlestadt for Kadri retained. Not a huge fan of Ritchie

I kind of agree with your assessment of Mittlestadt. I don’t really think there’s another level there but he’s an adequate middle 6 C, which we’d need if we were moving Kadri (more so if Backlund wants a shot at a cup next year and we move him too)

I don’t follow prospects as closely as others but I do like Ritchie. Again I think we probably end up just keeping Andersson but if he is moved my personal preference would be for a higher tier center prospect (which I think Ritchie is) and perhaps a lesser pick than a better pick and a meh prospect

Problem with Kadri is this might be the only year we can get value for him but if we trade him it creates a massive hole in the roster. Stylistically I don’t think mitts would fit with Huberdeau whatsoever. If we hang onto Kadri he’ll just play out his contract here as I doubt he’ll be moveable at 36-37 yrs old at 7 mil

Don’t really envy Conroy’s position, there’s not a clear cut right thing to do

 

[Figgy44]

I’ve never really liked Mittlestadt. I think he’s terribly soft. It was strange that Buffalo chose to trade him as he was breaking out, but the Sabres are known for poorly evaluating their own players. Now that Colorado is trying to get rid of him, alarm bells should be going off.

There would be have to be a substantial add to Mittlestadt for Andersson to be going the other way. Adding Ritchie and Kadri makes things murkier.

I’d rather just do Mittlestadt for Kadri retained. Not a huge fan of Ritchie

I've been interested in Mittlestadt for a while even before his resurgence and trade to Colorado. However, not as a full time C. I view him as a winger who can be trained to do spot duty or share centre duties with someone else on a line.

 

[Kranix]

What resurgence? You want a player who can't hit, goes 5 games without even a shot attempt, and picks up secondary assists because he can dangle a bit and toss the puck away when he gets into trouble?

 

[DomBarr]

Should we look at bringing back Brodie for dirt cheap if Bahl is out long term? I wouldn’t pay more than like a 6th, and it sucks that he has one more year after this at 3.75, but he’d probably be a huge upgrade on Miro/Hanley and can easily transition to a bottom-pair role next year when needed. And he can play both sides.

Seems like a good value opportunity unless he has regressed a ton in the past year and a half.

no...no new dmen unless other dmen go back in return.

The way I see it, from a pure asset value standpoint, Mittlstadt has slightly more value around the league than Kadri. He's a top 6C, he's 8 years younger, and he's getting paid less for the next 2.5 seasons. Plus Kadri has a NTC and as many have said, the last 2 years of the deal probably won't look good. There's only a handful of teams that would be interested in Kadri's services, but probably 20+ teams after Mitts.

So the value breakdown is:

Mitts >= Kadri
Ritchie + 2nd = Andersson

Ritchie is more valuable than a mid 1st and the slight value of Mitts over Kadri fills the rest. Plus we know Kadri will waive to go back to Denver. Maybe there's a little more added due to an Andersson bidding war but I think it's close



If Conroy won't move a UFA rental for that package alone he needs to be relieved of his duties

Mittlstadt is not a top6 center he is a middle 6 center who has never scored 20 goals in a season and is closer to a 3rd line center. Kadri is a true 2nd line center who is not only 2 way but can be trusted to score 25/45 for the next couple of seasons.

Andersson is not a UFA rental yet. he still has another year on his contract and no team can talk extension with him yet.

 

[Ace Rimmer]

I’ve never really liked Mittlestadt. I think he’s terribly soft. It was strange that Buffalo chose to trade him as he was breaking out, but the Sabres are known for poorly evaluating their own players. Now that Colorado is trying to get rid of him, alarm bells should be going off.

There would be have to be a substantial add to Mittlestadt for Andersson to be going the other way. Adding Ritchie and Kadri makes things murkier.

I’d rather just do Mittlestadt for Kadri retained. Not a huge fan of Ritchie

I wonder if you could trade them one for one, no retention either way.

Hate to trade from the leadership group though.

 

[Figgy44]

What resurgence? You want a player who can't hit, goes 5 games without even a shot attempt, and picks up secondary assists because he can dangle a bit and toss the puck away when he gets into trouble?

He went from a first round pick, to languishing to the point of having a value of maybe a 3rd or 5th round pick, back up to having the value of a 1st+ when swapped with Byram due to his play.

I wanted to trade for him when he was basically probably acquirable for a late 2nd or 3rd ish. I'd be interested in him again if he fell back down to that range of value.

 

[Ledge And Dairy]

The way I see it, from a pure asset value standpoint, Mittlstadt has slightly more value around the league than Kadri. He's a top 6C, he's 8 years younger, and he's getting paid less for the next 2.5 seasons. Plus Kadri has a NTC and as many have said, the last 2 years of the deal probably won't look good. There's only a handful of teams that would be interested in Kadri's services, but probably 20+ teams after Mitts.

So the value breakdown is:

Mitts >= Kadri
Ritchie + 2nd = Andersson

Ritchie is more valuable than a mid 1st and the slight value of Mitts over Kadri fills the rest. Plus we know Kadri will waive to go back to Denver. Maybe there's a little more added due to an Andersson bidding war but I think it's close



If Conroy won't move a UFA rental for that package alone he needs to be relieved of his duties

I find it interesting that you view Mittlestadt as the more valuable player. Kadri is quite clearly the better hockey player, and I don't view the difference in skill to be as close as the 1.25M difference in cap. So the entire argument on value is that Kadri is older and may fall off at any time. My counter would be that Mitts may never figure it out in the 2.5 years before he becomes a free agent, as well as Kadri may not fall off in the same way Pavelski never did.

Saying there are 20+ teams after Mitts is pretty baseless too. I'm sure a bunch of teams would take a flyer on him for cheap but nobody pushing for a cup would choose him over Naz. Yes he has a NTC but if he wants a move he will waive to more than just 1 team. More teams are probably interested in Mitts simply due to age but that doesn't mean they would pay more for him.

I know your last line was quoting someone else, and I agree that it's too much for Andersson alone but he is not a UFA rental. There are only 2 other RD in the league with similar or more production making under 5M and they are both on expiring contracts (Bouchard and Dobson). With the skyrocketing cap having Andersson for 4.55M for not only this playoffs but next years playoffs is immensely valuable.

 

[Ace Rimmer]

I’m curious about this mystical cheap, RHS centre Conroy is searching for. Who could that be

Genuinely curious if you ever figured out the answer to this question.

I certainly have no idea who that mystical unicorn would be.

 

[Zirakzigil]

Brodie is cooked as a player, hes not getting ice time with the Hawks, zero chance the Flames are interested in him.

Barrie is on a conditioning stint and still counts as a player on the Flames roster. Would be surprised if hes not in a game or two this week after playing 2 games with the Wranglers.

 

[Freaky Styley]

I find it interesting that you view Mittlestadt as the more valuable player. Kadri is quite clearly the better hockey player, and I don't view the difference in skill to be as close as the 1.25M difference in cap. So the entire argument on value is that Kadri is older and may fall off at any time. My counter would be that Mitts may never figure it out in the 2.5 years before he becomes a free agent, as well as Kadri may not fall off in the same way Pavelski never did.

Saying there are 20+ teams after Mitts is pretty baseless too. I'm sure a bunch of teams would take a flyer on him for cheap but nobody pushing for a cup would choose him over Naz. Yes he has a NTC but if he wants a move he will waive to more than just 1 team. More teams are probably interested in Mitts simply due to age but that doesn't mean they would pay more for him.

Agree to disagree. How many 26 year old 2C options do you see on the market right now? 3Cs even? Every team in the league wants centre depth, 20 teams was being conservative.

And yes you answered your own question - only teams looking to contend would be in on Kadri. How many contending teams does he make sense for? How many would he waive to? You might not like it, and Kadri is the better player today, but Mittlstadt is a more valuable trade asset. More interest teams = more and better offers.

8 years is significant age gap. And Kadri being signed for longer isn't an advantage in this case. Mitts played great for about 40 games in an Avalanche uniform and has 5 points in the last 5 games. Who knows why his play took a dip (maybe an injury being nursed), but he's a very talented player. Kadri just adds a dimension to the Avs that they lack and is a known commodity in Colorado. Mitt' style is redundant and we can't bank on his consistency.

In short, I , nor the Avs, would trade Mitts for Kadri straight up. I doubt many people would across this board.