Arizona Trade Revisited

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Regarding Middlestadt - he is off to a poor start stat-wise 5-5=10 in 32 games, no doubt about it. Pronman says that the almost unanimous opinion of the scouts who have watched him is that he is the player he was touted to be, and they anticipate better results shortly. Of course time will tell but those most knowledgeable are still high on him.

Regarding Andersson the same issues that made most question his high pick are evident. His skating is mediocre, certainly substandard for those claiming he is even close to an elite talent. His hands seem fine but nothing special. If he had 5-5=10 results in the opportunity Middlestadt has gotten so far we'd be jumping for joy. He plays a 200 foot game but not effectively as even Howden at this point. Of course he could develop more than he is tracking. It's equally likely he will not be much better than Oscar Lindberg. Their skill sets are somewhat similar.

The people who overhyped Mittelstadt to insane degrees based on a tiny sample size against kids insist they're still correct. Of course they do. And maybe they're right, but the fact is they're making excuses right now to justify their previous hype.

Chytil has almost the exact same production as Mittelstadt with very similar average TOI and I'm not "jumping for joy" about it - it's pretty decent for his age and experience and I hope he gets better at finishing as the year goes on.

Nobody sane ever said Andersson was an elite talent. Many have said Mittlestadt is and yet he gets endless excuses made for him.

Lias has outproduced Lindberg at every step so far. Lindberg didn't plan an AHL game until he was 22. Lias was playing in the AHL last year at 19 and put up a similar ppg to Lindberg when he was 3 years older.
 
By what other players on similar situations were dealt for. Mike Richards, for example.
How is Mike Richards a similar situation? He was traded six years before Stepan and had 9 years left on his contract at the time.

Who are the other players in similar situations?
 
The factual evidence you rely on are the stats because that's probably all you can do. The correct way to evaluate is to be able to look at a players skill set and understand how it will likely develop. Most fans don't have that ability, I don't and I can see you don't, but you want to have strong opinions anyway. Better to listen to the scouts who can make their living doing their evaluations. Anyone can read a prospect's production and make it the basis for their opinion; it just doesn't work. And to call Lias dynamic speaks for itself.
Good lord
 
So it’s not the exact same deal.

The year was different. The pick was the same.

It was done before the draft. If Pettersson fell to #7 or if they chose me at #7, that would certainly have changed the course of Ranger history (because Elias is ok but I would have rocked it) but it does not really change the trade at the time it was made.

So yeah I am not really sure what you are getting at, other than you personally didn't think we got enough.
 
The factual evidence you rely on are the stats because that's probably all you can do. The correct way to evaluate is to be able to look at a players skill set and understand how it will likely develop. Most fans don't have that ability, I don't and I can see you don't, but you want to have strong opinions anyway. Better to listen to the scouts who can make their living doing their evaluations. Anyone can read a prospect's production and make it the basis for their opinion; it just doesn't work. And to call Lias dynamic speaks for itself.
Oh good, some random guy comes in to tell me I only know how to stat-surf. This thread gets better by the moment. :laugh:

I said Lias Andersson was more dynamic than Oscar Lindberg; that does not make him a dynamic player. Vinni Lettieri, who has played with Lias, is a more dangerous offensive threat than Steven Fogarty. That does not make Vinni Lettieri a dangerous offensive threat. It's a tool used--comparison.

I believe that Lias Andersson has displayed, through the dozens of non-NHL games I have watched of him, a great nose for the net and a knack for being in the right place at the right time. That is a translatable skill. It is something innate. And, I have seen glimpses of it at the NHL level, as well. "The Shark" knows where to be, and when he plays with other players that know what the hell they're doing with the puck, he'll be bagging rebounds a-plenty like he has done in the SHL and AHL. He has also shown good on-ice awareness; an ability to know where his teammates are and where they are going, and where the opponents are as well. The play he made, lobbing that absolutely perfectly-placed and paced pass up the middle of the ice to hit Kreider for a breakaway, that is a play that you see missed so, so often by the random plugs that play on the PK. He's strong along the boards, and willing to battle, particularly in front of the net. Again, translatable skills. He doesn't have elite-level vision--while he possesses good awareness, he's not the type to be able to see plays happening before they've developed. That's a trait that will prevent him from being elite. His shot, to me, seems average. His hands are pretty good but not great.

I mean come on. I was able to watch 10 minutes of Michael Lindqvist and tell you that that guy required a ton of time and space to get off shots, and he wasn't going to get that in the NHL. Right around that time we signed Ville Meskanen--this kid is strong, works in the tough areas, and can make his own space. I said all summer if one made it it will be Meskanen. I doubled down once I watched the two. Now that Lindqvist is gone, I still maintain Meskanen has an NHL career if he fights for it (like I said with Fogarty, who proved me right after all these years! Translatable skills!).

But nah, I'm just a f***ing stats guy or whatever you say. I'm no f***ing superstar scout but I've been watching hockey at all levels for a long time, long enough to understand talent that will translate up and down the ladder. We can go through dozens of other guys if you want. You can even go find what Pronman said about them for comparison.
 
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He looks like a bottom six player .

He turned 20 like, 2 months ago.. It doesn’t really matter what he looks like right now.

I wish there was a dislike button on these boards.

shutterstock_375815809.jpg
 
Fun fact: Lias had the 3rd highest single-season J18 SuperElit production in history. Would that not denote high scoring potential? Or because his name's not Casey Mittelstadt, does that not apply?
 
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To reiterate what seemingly everyone else here is saying, I have never seen anyone here say he's going to be elite. On a related note, if you go by the main boards, Andersson is consistently in the Top 15 on re-drafts.
 
How is Mike Richards a similar situation? He was traded six years before Stepan and had 9 years left on his contract at the time.

Who are the other players in similar situations?

1st line player on a long-term deal being dealt before their NTC kicks in. That’s the situation. The length of term after doesn’t matter much, since the acquiring team gets to decide if they’ll honor the clause. I know the Coyotes did not. I’ll have to look to see if the Kings did or not. I don’t remember. Either way, it’s the same basic situation. Same with Carter that year too.

There are others, some which just involve a player of Stepans caliber and not with the NTC wrinkle. I’ll have to check it out when I get home, since I’m blanking on them right now.
 
The year was different. The pick was the same.

It was done before the draft. If Pettersson fell to #7 or if they chose me at #7, that would certainly have changed the course of Ranger history (because Elias is ok but I would have rocked it) but it does not really change the trade at the time it was made.

So yeah I am not really sure what you are getting at, other than you personally didn't think we got enough.

The #7 wasn’t the only component to the deal and we don’t know what other components there were the year before. You’re acting like it’s the same deal, but it’s not. For one, who knows to what extent Arizona even entertained it the year before.

It’s pretty clear that Gorton was set on trading Stepan with the deadline being draft day. He took the best offer he had at that point. That makes it a contract and player dump.
 
1st line player on a long-term deal being dealt before their NTC kicks in. That’s the situation. The length of term after doesn’t matter much, since the acquiring team gets to decide if they’ll honor the clause. I know the Coyotes did not. I’ll have to look to see if the Kings did or not. I don’t remember. Either way, it’s the same basic situation. Same with Carter that year too.

There are others, some which just involve a player of Stepans caliber and not with the NTC wrinkle. I’ll have to check it out when I get home.

He was regarded higher than Stepan and had a boat load of years left (right?)

Now the 2nd point may be deemed as a negative, but it is what it is.
 
It’s pretty clear that Gorton was set on trading Stepan with the deadline being draft day. He took the best offer he had at that point. That makes it a contract and player dump.
So by the same logic, McDonagh was also a contract and player dump, right?
 
He was regarded higher than Stepan and had a boat load of years left (right?)

Now the 2nd point may be deemed as a negative, but it is what it is.

The second point is not a positive, considering he was being shopped right before the NTC kicked in. And it turned out poorly, as the Flyers had been concerned about (even though they’re the ones who gave Richards the contract).

And again, I’m not saying that Stepan should’ve brought the same return, but the difference between Stepan and Richards was smaller than the difference between their returns. Richards brought back an A prospect who was a 5OA 2 years earlier, an established middle-6 forward, and a 2nd. Stepan brough back a 7OA and a B+ prospect.
 
Maybe it's the phrasing "cap dump" that's throwing me here reading these posts.

When I think of a cap dump, I think of attaching assets (picks/players) going out to take a contract. Not getting solid value back for a player.

Kind of semantics I guess, just bugging me a bit.
 
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I'd certainly make the Stepan trade again, even with hindsight.

I am always slightly curious as to why Middlestadt comes up in conversations about Andersson. If Lias was a 'reach' based on readily available draft ranking lists (which seem to form 'the consensus') then Vilardi is the guy that he should be compared to, because it was he, not Middlestadt who was the consensus #4 and he was still in the board when the Rangers were up
 
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How is it that people cant let Anderson play a couple years before they throw him away like garbage? I mean a good case in point is a guy like Scheiflele, and I'm not trying to say Anderson is comparable but everyone was declaring him a bad pick his first couple of years and really never hit his stride until year 4 and he has turned into one of the better centers in the league....patience people some players take longer than others.
 
Maybe it's the phrasing "cap dump" that's throwing me here reading these posts.

When I think of a cap dump, I think of attaching assets (picks/players) going out to take a contract. Not getting solid value back for a player.

Kind of semantics I guess, just bugging me a bit.

Semantics, yeah.

I consider it a cap dump any time a primary reason for a player being moved is his current contract or the team not being interested in signing a guy for what his next contract will be.
 
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I am no hockey guru but do people honestly watch Lias and think “no chance he can become a 50-55 player who provides benefits beyond raw production?” But at the same time watch Casey and say “omg, sure fire 1st liner, guaranteed 70+ pts”.

I think it’s fair to say that Lias was a great pick at 7 given how 1-6 went down. There was a very clear drop off after Glass got picked. From the super limited viewings (aka when we play buffalo) I have had of Casey in the NHL, I see no reason to think “wow, we really messed this one up”.

In either case, the value at the time of the trade was pretty fair, Step is exactly what he is but let’s not pretend that AZ didn’t swallow some long term risk with that contract and trade clause impediments.

Last point: I am definitely now an ADA guy, way better then I thought he would. It’s nice to be pleasantly surprised.
 
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Maybe it's the phrasing "cap dump" that's throwing me here reading these posts.

When I think of a cap dump, I think of attaching assets (picks/players) going out to take a contract. Not getting solid value back for a player.

Kind of semantics I guess, just bugging me a bit.
I would agree with this. Don't see Stepan being a cap dump in any sense. The Rangers didn't want to get stuck with a NMC, but they weren't desperate to get rid of his contract/willing to add extra value just to get rid of him without getting back fair value.
 

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