Are you comfortable with a claim of OV being the GOAT goalscorer?

[daver]

Strictly from a raw numbers/goalscoring finishes standpoint, he is making a case.

I think the ability of Wayne and Mario, and Howe to a lesser degree, all of whom are in the GOAT goalscorer conversation, to be both dominant goalscorers and playmakers at the same time puts a big asterix around any claim for OV being the greatest.

Click to read more...

 

[bobholly39]

Yes, 100%.

Maybe the "today" part is a bit fluid for me - is he already today (at age 34 with 1152 games played) the greatest goal scorer of all time? That's a bit more tricky. Considering he isn't retiring today, has easily another 3-5 seasons minimum where even if he declines should compile an extra 100-150 goals easily, and likely more - I say yes with the expectation he'll 100% add that. So yes. If "he retired today" - i'd have to consider it more closely.

Mario Lemieux was better at scoring goals. More skilled, and better ability. But he didn't do it often enough, through enough games, to earn the title of "greater" goal-scorer than Ovechkin will have earned upon retirement.

Absolutely no need for asterisks - ridiculous suggestion imo

 

[daver]

Yes, 100%.

Maybe the "today" part is a bit fluid for me - is he already today (at age 34 with 1152 games played) the greatest goal scorer of all time? That's a bit more tricky. Considering he isn't retiring today, has easily another 3-5 seasons minimum where even if he declines should compile an extra 100-150 goals easily, and likely more - I say yes with the expectation he'll 100% add that. So yes. If "he retired today" - i'd have to consider it more closely.

Mario Lemieux was better at scoring goals. More skilled, and better ability. But he didn't do it often enough, through enough games, to earn the title of "greater" goal-scorer than Ovechkin will have earned upon retirement.

Absolutely no need for asterisks - ridiculous suggestion imo

Why isn't Bobby Hull better at scoring goals? Or Wayne. Both were better at their peaks?

 

[Hockey Outsider]

If Ovechkin retired today, he would absolutely be in the conversation for greatest goal-scorer in NHL history.

Prime - this is probably the strongest part of his case. He placed in the top three in goal-scoring 12 times in 15 seasons (in a 30 team league) - that's nearly unfathomable. Assuming the 2020 season ends here, he has nine goal-scoring crowns in 13 years. The only player who seriously rivals that is Howe (first or second in goal-scoring ten times in 14 years - and of course this was in a smaller league with less of a chance for another player to have a big season).

Career - another major strength. He scored 700 goals already, in a low-scoring era. He has a realistic chance of reaching 800 goals. He already ranks 5th all-time in terms of his era-adjusted career total (based on VsX) and he's around two seasons away from second place. I doubt he catches Howe, but this is another strength in his case.

Peak - eight (nine?) Richard trophies is very impressive, but most of the wins were by relatively small margins (five of them were margins of five goals or fewer). His 2008 season was a historically good season (on par with Gretzky's 92 goal season taking era into account), but none of his other seasons stand out to the same degree. Compare this to, say, Bobby Hull, who dominated the league by huge margins multiple times. Obviously the league is different now, but aside from 2008, Ovechkin's margins of victories aren't much bigger than his peers (Iginla and Stamkos both won goal-scoring titles by 20% margins, which is comparable to Ovechkin's best outside of 2008).

Playoffs - his per-game goal-scoring rate drops about 16% in the postseason - slightly higher than the overall drop in playoff scoring. He only made it out of the second round once (but did very well in the last two rounds of 2018 - seven goals in 12 games). That stretch where he had only 26 goals in 69 playoff games definitely hurts. I wouldn't go as far as calling his playoff goal-scoring a weakness - his Smythe run silenced many critics - but in general, the postseason isn't a strength like it is for other players who have a claim to this title (especially Gretzky and Richard).

Intangibles - there are two main arguments against Ovechkin. The first is that he's predictable. I disagree with this one. I mean, it's literally true in the sense that Ovechkin's goals are less varied (and less aesthetically pleasing) than, say, Lemieux's goals. But we shouldn't be evaluating players based on their YouTube highlights - productivity is what ultimately matters. If Ovechkin truly was predictable, why would he keep winning goal-scoring crowns, year after year?

The other argument is Ovechkin is one-dimensional (in the sense that he has a singular focus on goal-scoring - forget playmaking). There's clearly some truth to this, after his peak ended. (From 2012 onwards, of the top 200 scorers, he has the 2nd lowest assist-to-goal ratio). If we're strictly talking about goal scoring, then this shouldn't matter. He scored the goals he scored, and that's that. But I think it's worth asking if goal-scoring titles with 38, 38, 28, 28, and 21 assists are nearly as impressive as, say, Howe "only" finished 2nd in goals one year, while leading the league in assists. How many more goal-scoring titles would Gretzky, Howe and Lemieux have, if they shot the puck a bit more?

Taking all these factors - yes, there's absolutely an argument for Ovechkin being the greatest goal-scorer in NHL history. But he's one of several players (Richard, Howe, Hull, Gretzky, Lemieux) who can make that claim.

 

[GMR]

No.

If he retires today, he has neither the most goals nor the highest GPG.

 

[GMR]

Yes, 100%.

Maybe the "today" part is a bit fluid for me - is he already today (at age 34 with 1152 games played) the greatest goal scorer of all time? That's a bit more tricky. Considering he isn't retiring today, has easily another 3-5 seasons minimum where even if he declines should compile an extra 100-150 goals easily, and likely more - I say yes with the expectation he'll 100% add that. So yes. If "he retired today" - i'd have to consider it more closely.

Mario Lemieux was better at scoring goals. More skilled, and better ability. But he didn't do it often enough, through enough games, to earn the title of "greater" goal-scorer than Ovechkin will have earned upon retirement.

Absolutely no need for asterisks - ridiculous suggestion imo

Ovechkin just recently passed Lemieux in goals scored, despite Mario playing much fewer games. So I'm not sure what you mean. Is 900+ games not enough of a sample size?

 

[bobholly39]

Why isn't Bobby Hull better at scoring goals? Or Wayne. Both were better at their peaks?

Who says they weren't? I just gave one example with Lemieux.

I could put together a similar statement for Ovechkin in regards to Gretzky or Hull. Ovechkin has longevity edge over Hull, and Gretzky's 2nd half to career in goal-scoring is weak - era adjusted Ovechkin already scored the equivalent of Gretzky's career 894 goals, or close enough.

Ovechkin just recently passed Lemieux in goals scored, despite Mario playing much fewer games. So I'm not sure what you mean. Is 900+ games not enough of a sample size?

Ovechkin has more goals than Lemieux in a much lower scoring era. If you "adjust", it gives him a bigger edge in career goals. Considering Ovechkin isn't retiring today - and that I think on the very worst of projections he's good for another ~100 career goals minimum (so 800+ total) - I think I fully expect Ovechkin to be called the greater Goal-scorer than Lemieux upon retirement. ~800 is a conservative career estimate - he might land closer to ~900, or even slightly above.

Edge to Lemieux in peak - but Ovechkin overtakes him in the long run to earn the title of greatest.

 

[JackSlater]

I'm comfortable with it. At this point it seems almost inevitable that he'll finish up as the most accomplished goal scorer ever and he's already right in the conversation. I don't think that he's the best ever at scoring goals, though he's up there, but his mix of peak and longevity as a goal scorer is extremely impressive

 

[Dennis Bonvie]

If Ovechkin retired today, he would absolutely be in the conversation for greatest goal-scorer in NHL history.

Prime - this is probably the strongest part of his case. He placed in the top three in goal-scoring 12 times in 15 seasons (in a 30 team league) - that's nearly unfathomable. Assuming the 2020 season ends here, he has nine goal-scoring crowns in 13 years. The only player who seriously rivals that is Howe (first or second in goal-scoring ten times in 14 years - and of course this was in a smaller league with less of a chance for another player to have a big season).

Career - another major strength. He scored 700 goals already, in a low-scoring era. He has a realistic chance of reaching 800 goals. He already ranks 5th all-time in terms of his era-adjusted career total (based on VsX) and he's around two seasons away from second place. I doubt he catches Howe, but this is another strength in his case.

Peak - eight (nine?) Richard trophies is very impressive, but most of the wins were by relatively small margins (five of them were margins of five goals or fewer). His 2008 season was a historically good season (on par with Gretzky's 92 goal season taking era into account), but none of his other seasons stand out to the same degree. Compare this to, say, Bobby Hull, who dominated the league by huge margins multiple times. Obviously the league is different now, but aside from 2008, Ovechkin's margins of victories aren't much bigger than his peers (Iginla and Stamkos both won goal-scoring titles by 20% margins, which is comparable to Ovechkin's best outside of 2008).

Playoffs - his per-game goal-scoring rate drops about 16% in the postseason - slightly higher than the overall drop in playoff scoring. He only made it out of the second round once (but did very well in the last two rounds of 2018 - seven goals in 12 games). That stretch where he had only 26 goals in 69 playoff games definitely hurts. I wouldn't go as far as calling his playoff goal-scoring a weakness - his Smythe run silenced many critics - but in general, the postseason isn't a strength like it is for other players who have a claim to this title (especially Gretzky and Richard).

Intangibles - there are two main arguments against Ovechkin. The first is that he's predictable. I disagree with this one. I mean, it's literally true in the sense that Ovechkin's goals are less varied (and less aesthetically pleasing) than, say, Lemieux's goals. But we shouldn't be evaluating players based on their YouTube highlights - productivity is what ultimately matters. If Ovechkin truly was predictable, why would he keep winning goal-scoring crowns, year after year?

The other argument is Ovechkin is one-dimensional (in the sense that he has a singular focus on goal-scoring - forget playmaking). There's clearly some truth to this, after his peak ended. (From 2012 onwards, of the top 200 scorers, he has the 2nd lowest assist-to-goal ratio). If we're strictly talking about goal scoring, then this shouldn't matter. He scored the goals he scored, and that's that. But I think it's worth asking if goal-scoring titles with 38, 38, 28, 28, and 21 assists are nearly as impressive as, say, Howe "only" finished 2nd in goals one year, while leading the league in assists. How many more goal-scoring titles would Gretzky, Howe and Lemieux have, if they shot the puck a bit more?

Taking all these factors - yes, there's absolutely an argument for Ovechkin being the greatest goal-scorer in NHL history. But he's one of several players (Richard, Howe, Hull, Gretzky, Lemieux) who can make that claim.

I would add Bossy as one who could make a claim.

 

[Dennis Bonvie]

Ovechkin just recently passed Lemieux in goals scored, despite Mario playing much fewer games. So I'm not sure what you mean. Is 900+ games not enough of a sample size?

You need to consider the era.

 

[GMR]

You need to consider the era.

I do. But Lemieux, like Gretzky in his peak, was comfortably outscoring his peers. It's not like every decent goal scorer was bagging 70 goals per season in the late 80's and early 90's.

Also, to me Lemieux was a more impressive goal scorer since he also racked up so many assists. Lemieux and Gretzky could lead the league in goals and assists in the same season. Could Ovechkin even come close? I know we're supposed to be discussing goal scoring only, but in context, all Ovechkin tries to do is score goals. He doesn't distribute the puck around. I'm more impressed by a guy who can score lots of goals while leading the league in assists, than I am with a guy who does nothing but score goals.

 

[wetcoast]

If Ovechkin retired today, he would absolutely be in the conversation for greatest goal-scorer in NHL history.

Prime - this is probably the strongest part of his case. He placed in the top three in goal-scoring 12 times in 15 seasons (in a 30 team league) - that's nearly unfathomable. Assuming the 2020 season ends here, he has nine goal-scoring crowns in 13 years. The only player who seriously rivals that is Howe (first or second in goal-scoring ten times in 14 years - and of course this was in a smaller league with less of a chance for another player to have a big season).

Career - another major strength. He scored 700 goals already, in a low-scoring era. He has a realistic chance of reaching 800 goals. He already ranks 5th all-time in terms of his era-adjusted career total (based on VsX) and he's around two seasons away from second place. I doubt he catches Howe, but this is another strength in his case.

Peak - eight (nine?) Richard trophies is very impressive, but most of the wins were by relatively small margins (five of them were margins of five goals or fewer). His 2008 season was a historically good season (on par with Gretzky's 92 goal season taking era into account), but none of his other seasons stand out to the same degree. Compare this to, say, Bobby Hull, who dominated the league by huge margins multiple times. Obviously the league is different now, but aside from 2008, Ovechkin's margins of victories aren't much bigger than his peers (Iginla and Stamkos both won goal-scoring titles by 20% margins, which is comparable to Ovechkin's best outside of 2008).

Playoffs - his per-game goal-scoring rate drops about 16% in the postseason - slightly higher than the overall drop in playoff scoring. He only made it out of the second round once (but did very well in the last two rounds of 2018 - seven goals in 12 games). That stretch where he had only 26 goals in 69 playoff games definitely hurts. I wouldn't go as far as calling his playoff goal-scoring a weakness - his Smythe run silenced many critics - but in general, the postseason isn't a strength like it is for other players who have a claim to this title (especially Gretzky and Richard).

Intangibles - there are two main arguments against Ovechkin. The first is that he's predictable. I disagree with this one. I mean, it's literally true in the sense that Ovechkin's goals are less varied (and less aesthetically pleasing) than, say, Lemieux's goals. But we shouldn't be evaluating players based on their YouTube highlights - productivity is what ultimately matters. If Ovechkin truly was predictable, why would he keep winning goal-scoring crowns, year after year?

The other argument is Ovechkin is one-dimensional (in the sense that he has a singular focus on goal-scoring - forget playmaking). There's clearly some truth to this, after his peak ended. (From 2012 onwards, of the top 200 scorers, he has the 2nd lowest assist-to-goal ratio). If we're strictly talking about goal scoring, then this shouldn't matter. He scored the goals he scored, and that's that. But I think it's worth asking if goal-scoring titles with 38, 38, 28, 28, and 21 assists are nearly as impressive as, say, Howe "only" finished 2nd in goals one year, while leading the league in assists. How many more goal-scoring titles would Gretzky, Howe and Lemieux have, if they shot the puck a bit more?

Taking all these factors - yes, there's absolutely an argument for Ovechkin being the greatest goal-scorer in NHL history. But he's one of several players (Richard, Howe, Hull, Gretzky, Lemieux) who can make that claim.

Can't really add anything to this as it says it all.

 

[bobholly39]

I would add Bossy as one who could make a claim.

Not really. He lacks the peak (Gretzky destroys him head to head) or longevity to make a claim.

Had he not retired early - it's possible he might have accomplished enough past 30 to make a claim, but as it is, he's lacking.

 

[Dennis Bonvie]

Not really. He lacks the peak (Gretzky destroys him head to head) or longevity to make a claim.

Had he not retired early - it's possible he might have accomplished enough past 30 to make a claim, but as it is, he's lacking.

Bossy's Goals per game is higher than Gretzky's in the regular season and the playoffs.

 

[bobholly39]

Bossy's Goals per game is higher than Gretzky's in the regular season and the playoffs.

Bossy played in the NHL from ages 21 to 30. His goals per game is 0.76 in the regular season, 0.66 in the playoffs, or 0.75 combining the 2.
Wayne Gretzky - for ages 21 to 30 - has a regular season goals per game of 0.80, playoff goal per game of 0.61, combined of 0.77.

Considering Gretzky scored goals in the NHL also before age 21, and after age 30 - that's just added differentiation, since he owns the career records for both metrics too.

If you don't like the age comparison - Bossy played 752 games. Gretzky in his first 752 games had a goals per game average of 0.83

So no - Gretzky is clearly ahead. You can't just penalize him for not retiring at age 30, or at game 752 - as Bossy did.

 

[daver]

Who says they weren't? I just gave one example with Lemieux.

I could put together a similar statement for Ovechkin in regards to Gretzky or Hull. Ovechkin has longevity edge over Hull, and Gretzky's 2nd half to career in goal-scoring is weak - era adjusted Ovechkin already scored the equivalent of Gretzky's career 894 goals, or close enough.

How does OV have longevity over Hull?

 

[67 others]

If Ovechkin retired today, he would absolutely be in the conversation for greatest goal-scorer in NHL history.

Prime - this is probably the strongest part of his case. He placed in the top three in goal-scoring 12 times in 15 seasons (in a 30 team league) - that's nearly unfathomable. Assuming the 2020 season ends here, he has nine goal-scoring crowns in 13 years. The only player who seriously rivals that is Howe (first or second in goal-scoring ten times in 14 years - and of course this was in a smaller league with less of a chance for another player to have a big season).

Career - another major strength. He scored 700 goals already, in a low-scoring era. He has a realistic chance of reaching 800 goals. He already ranks 5th all-time in terms of his era-adjusted career total (based on VsX) and he's around two seasons away from second place. I doubt he catches Howe, but this is another strength in his case.

Peak - eight (nine?) Richard trophies is very impressive, but most of the wins were by relatively small margins (five of them were margins of five goals or fewer). His 2008 season was a historically good season (on par with Gretzky's 92 goal season taking era into account), but none of his other seasons stand out to the same degree. Compare this to, say, Bobby Hull, who dominated the league by huge margins multiple times. Obviously the league is different now, but aside from 2008, Ovechkin's margins of victories aren't much bigger than his peers (Iginla and Stamkos both won goal-scoring titles by 20% margins, which is comparable to Ovechkin's best outside of 2008).

Playoffs - his per-game goal-scoring rate drops about 16% in the postseason - slightly higher than the overall drop in playoff scoring. He only made it out of the second round once (but did very well in the last two rounds of 2018 - seven goals in 12 games). That stretch where he had only 26 goals in 69 playoff games definitely hurts. I wouldn't go as far as calling his playoff goal-scoring a weakness - his Smythe run silenced many critics - but in general, the postseason isn't a strength like it is for other players who have a claim to this title (especially Gretzky and Richard).

Intangibles - there are two main arguments against Ovechkin. The first is that he's predictable. I disagree with this one. I mean, it's literally true in the sense that Ovechkin's goals are less varied (and less aesthetically pleasing) than, say, Lemieux's goals. But we shouldn't be evaluating players based on their YouTube highlights - productivity is what ultimately matters. If Ovechkin truly was predictable, why would he keep winning goal-scoring crowns, year after year?

The other argument is Ovechkin is one-dimensional (in the sense that he has a singular focus on goal-scoring - forget playmaking). There's clearly some truth to this, after his peak ended. (From 2012 onwards, of the top 200 scorers, he has the 2nd lowest assist-to-goal ratio). If we're strictly talking about goal scoring, then this shouldn't matter. He scored the goals he scored, and that's that. But I think it's worth asking if goal-scoring titles with 38, 38, 28, 28, and 21 assists are nearly as impressive as, say, Howe "only" finished 2nd in goals one year, while leading the league in assists. How many more goal-scoring titles would Gretzky, Howe and Lemieux have, if they shot the puck a bit more?

Taking all these factors - yes, there's absolutely an argument for Ovechkin being the greatest goal-scorer in NHL history. But he's one of several players (Richard, Howe, Hull, Gretzky, Lemieux) who can make that claim.

Perfect post. Thank you

 

[bobholly39]

How does OV have longevity over Hull?

Seriously?

More NHL games, more NHL goals, more NHL playoff games & goals, more 'rockets'. How does he not?

Also - nowhere in your post did you say "if he retires today". Since Ovi has a good 3-4 years left in him minimum - that lead is going to grow. Slight edge to Ovi for longevity today - which will only grow over next few seasons.

 

[daver]

Seriously?

More NHL games, more NHL goals, more NHL playoff games & goals, more 'rockets'. How does he not?

Also - nowhere in your post did you say "if he retires today". Since Ovi has a good 3-4 years left in him minimum - that lead is going to grow. Slight edge to Ovi for longevity today - which will only grow over next few seasons.

Seriously? No consideration for playing in 70 game seasons, two round playoffs, and against a statistical anomaly in Esposito?

When do you lose all concept of context?

Do you at least acknowledge Hull has the superior peak season (s)?

 

[Dennis Bonvie]

Bossy played in the NHL from ages 21 to 30. His goals per game is 0.76 in the regular season, 0.66 in the playoffs, or 0.75 combining the 2.
Wayne Gretzky - for ages 21 to 30 - has a regular season goals per game of 0.80, playoff goal per game of 0.61, combined of 0.77.

Considering Gretzky scored goals in the NHL also before age 21, and after age 30 - that's just added differentiation, since he owns the career records for both metrics too.

If you don't like the age comparison - Bossy played 752 games. Gretzky in his first 752 games had a goals per game average of 0.83

So no - Gretzky is clearly ahead. You can't just penalize him for not retiring at age 30, or at game 752 - as Bossy did.

Likewise, you can't punish Bossy for having career ending injuries.

You cannot just assume if Bossy played longer his goal scoring would drop drastically like Gretzky's did.

 

[sr edler]

No. Someone (Chitown?) posted a stat that he's led the league in ES goal scoring once the last 10 years. His era's been quite soft too, and he remodeled himself as a designated trigger man in a style that's not pleasing to my poor brain. I don't like the lack of versatility. The best goal scorer ever should be an all-situations player. Peak Ovi got a case for something that's good, not this last decade guy collecting Richard trophies with an assist ratio that would make Peter Bondra a proud companion.

Mario's probably my favorite. Then I have Bobby Hull. Then Bure.

 

[blogofmike]

Likewise, you can't punish Bossy for having career ending injuries.

You cannot just assume if Bossy played longer his goal scoring would drop drastically like Gretzky's did.

Can you punish him for scoring fewer goals than Gretzky while they played? Or perhaps we only punish Gretzky for continuing to play until age 38?

 

[CTHabsfan]

No.

If he retires today, he has neither the most goals nor the highest GPG.

He doesn't even have the single season record.

 

[JasonRoseEh]

No.

If he retires today, he has neither the most goals nor the highest GPG.

Comparing flat totals from an era where scoring was much higher versus the game today is just a fools errand and at best, insincere to the argument. While adjusted numbers have flaws, they are about as close as we can get to compare players across eras. When doing so it's hard to argue that Ovechkin isn't right there and he's not done. GPG% is also a foolish thing when it's skewed in favor of said era as well as people who never saw their career out of their primes (Bossy)

He doesn't even have the single season record.

Because numbers of that magnitude are basically impossible in the modern game and the players who attained them wouldn't sniff them if they played now. There is less time to score as the game is faster and players are bigger, defensemen are better, goalies are infinitely better as well.

 

[JasonRoseEh]

Likewise, you can't punish Bossy for having career ending injuries.

You cannot just assume if Bossy played longer his goal scoring would drop drastically like Gretzky's did.

Yes you can because that's how it works for all players. Also, Bossy isn't in the conversation for one of the 3 greatest goal scorers ever. He wasn't close to the best of his era, his totals aren't high enough and even if Gretzky didn't exist he would only have won 3 goal scoring titles anyhow.