larek
Registered User
Key is Suzuki
I'm not confident
Has he become too content
Too much soonias too soon
I'm not confident
Has he become too content
Too much soonias too soon
Are We Headed in the Right Direction?
- Thread starter Lafleurs Guy
- Start date
@ Lafleurs Guy
A little more than a year and a half into the new management era and we're supposed to be halfway through the rebuild?
Can't agree with that. The rebuild will also need to take into account the progression of our prospects before we can say, with any level of confidence, that the rebuild is over.
If not, you are just gauging everything on potential, not on fact.
Hey, potential wise, we have one of the best top-four Ds in the league with Guhle, Reinbacher, Hutson and Mailloux, plus a great #5D in Xhekaj who can also drop the mitts and defend his team-mates!
In reality, Guhle might well be a Paper Tiger because he's made out of glass (need a replacement), Hutson's game does not translate well once at the NHL level and he becomes a 6th D that is used as a PP specialist who also sits out against heavier opposing lineups. Reinbacher potentially becomes a 2nd pairing, more defensive D, which is all good, but still leaves a hole for that 1st pairing RHD position. Mailloux remains a risky player defensively and gets pushed down to a 3rd pairing role like Hutson and adds a heavy shot and good offensive instincts to a 2nd PP wave.
These question marks convinced that we aren't half way through the rebuild.
I don't think that having a duo that is, at least, a 2nd line lock in Caufield and Suzuki represents half the rebuild either.
We're not sure where Newhook fits in on the depth chart, despite the skill set, and whether Dach will ever resume his progression where he was in their year's preseason.
Some fans might get their wish in a best case scenario where Dach can still play wing, only on a second line with Caufield and Suzuki, after coming back from an ACL+MCL tear in the same knee. He might not come back as fast, but the operation could leave his knee ligaments stronger (like the Tommy John procedure for the elbow). Still, we'd now be looking to fill that #1C position, as we've been needing to do for the last 25+ years, IMO.
I don't believe Kidney or Farrell will pan out as impact players at the NHL level, nor that Mesar will either. The only real froward prospects currently in the system that project well at the NHL level, IMO, are Roy, Beck and Heineman, with Roy being the only one with real top-6 upside.
Beck might fill middle-six role at C and provide genuine shutdown upside with speed, a little like Carbonneau did, in his day. Only, Beck is not a former 50-goal scorer at the Junior level, like Guy was, and that offensive upside as a two-way C won't be as high.
Lots of answers needed before we can say in what time frame this rebuild is likely over -- And I haven't even addressed the G position yet.
Allen, Montembeault and Primeau are clearly not part of that contending future for the Habs and we don't know squat with any certainty about the added recently in our prospect pool.
This rebuild won't be over until the 2027-2028 season, with any luck. If we're any more unlucky, it won't be over until suzuki's next contract begins and, at that point, Suzuki might not be interested in re-signing with the Habs if he wants town a Cup while he can still have an impact?
Now, I know I'm leaning more towards the worst case scenario for this post, but I think that our expectations for the next year and a half -- that other half of the time allegedly required for the rebuild to be over -- need to be tempered!
After two more years (to round things up), we'll stile unsure about Reinbacher, Hutson and Mailloux's ceilings, for one, and, probably, about Roy's own ceiling. The same could be said of Dach, most likely, after one year of playing, coming off of rehab for a pulverized knee.
We should have a clear read on Guhle, Xhekaj, Barron and Harris, plus Suzuki, Caufield, Newhook, RHP and, if we're lucky, and he's not hurt all the time, Heineman.
We still won't be certain about any of the G prospects at the NHL level because it will still be early in their development for that position.
The 2025 offseason won't be the end of the rebuild, but, with all the draft capital we have accumulated so far for that player auction, plus what we might still acquire by then, we'll be in a great position to leverage everything we have (veterans, prospects who we have a better read on, draft capital, a willingness to sacrifice someone's unborn child, etc.) tome to a new level of the rebuild and a new leve lof potential, but it will still take a few years for the end of the rebuild to be confirmed!
A little more than a year and a half into the new management era and we're supposed to be halfway through the rebuild?
Can't agree with that. The rebuild will also need to take into account the progression of our prospects before we can say, with any level of confidence, that the rebuild is over.
If not, you are just gauging everything on potential, not on fact.
Hey, potential wise, we have one of the best top-four Ds in the league with Guhle, Reinbacher, Hutson and Mailloux, plus a great #5D in Xhekaj who can also drop the mitts and defend his team-mates!
In reality, Guhle might well be a Paper Tiger because he's made out of glass (need a replacement), Hutson's game does not translate well once at the NHL level and he becomes a 6th D that is used as a PP specialist who also sits out against heavier opposing lineups. Reinbacher potentially becomes a 2nd pairing, more defensive D, which is all good, but still leaves a hole for that 1st pairing RHD position. Mailloux remains a risky player defensively and gets pushed down to a 3rd pairing role like Hutson and adds a heavy shot and good offensive instincts to a 2nd PP wave.
These question marks convinced that we aren't half way through the rebuild.
I don't think that having a duo that is, at least, a 2nd line lock in Caufield and Suzuki represents half the rebuild either.
We're not sure where Newhook fits in on the depth chart, despite the skill set, and whether Dach will ever resume his progression where he was in their year's preseason.
Some fans might get their wish in a best case scenario where Dach can still play wing, only on a second line with Caufield and Suzuki, after coming back from an ACL+MCL tear in the same knee. He might not come back as fast, but the operation could leave his knee ligaments stronger (like the Tommy John procedure for the elbow). Still, we'd now be looking to fill that #1C position, as we've been needing to do for the last 25+ years, IMO.
I don't believe Kidney or Farrell will pan out as impact players at the NHL level, nor that Mesar will either. The only real froward prospects currently in the system that project well at the NHL level, IMO, are Roy, Beck and Heineman, with Roy being the only one with real top-6 upside.
Beck might fill middle-six role at C and provide genuine shutdown upside with speed, a little like Carbonneau did, in his day. Only, Beck is not a former 50-goal scorer at the Junior level, like Guy was, and that offensive upside as a two-way C won't be as high.
Lots of answers needed before we can say in what time frame this rebuild is likely over -- And I haven't even addressed the G position yet.
Allen, Montembeault and Primeau are clearly not part of that contending future for the Habs and we don't know squat with any certainty about the added recently in our prospect pool.
This rebuild won't be over until the 2027-2028 season, with any luck. If we're any more unlucky, it won't be over until suzuki's next contract begins and, at that point, Suzuki might not be interested in re-signing with the Habs if he wants town a Cup while he can still have an impact?
Now, I know I'm leaning more towards the worst case scenario for this post, but I think that our expectations for the next year and a half -- that other half of the time allegedly required for the rebuild to be over -- need to be tempered!
After two more years (to round things up), we'll stile unsure about Reinbacher, Hutson and Mailloux's ceilings, for one, and, probably, about Roy's own ceiling. The same could be said of Dach, most likely, after one year of playing, coming off of rehab for a pulverized knee.
We should have a clear read on Guhle, Xhekaj, Barron and Harris, plus Suzuki, Caufield, Newhook, RHP and, if we're lucky, and he's not hurt all the time, Heineman.
We still won't be certain about any of the G prospects at the NHL level because it will still be early in their development for that position.
The 2025 offseason won't be the end of the rebuild, but, with all the draft capital we have accumulated so far for that player auction, plus what we might still acquire by then, we'll be in a great position to leverage everything we have (veterans, prospects who we have a better read on, draft capital, a willingness to sacrifice someone's unborn child, etc.) tome to a new level of the rebuild and a new leve lof potential, but it will still take a few years for the end of the rebuild to be confirmed!
Takeru
Registered User
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Plus doing all that at a faster rate than the average contending/building teams.
And having more the strict minimum to fill a quality top6F /top4 D as injuries are bound to pile up as we've seen.
Quite a tall order.
montreal
Go Habs Go
I'm not looking for any "miracle" from the development team, I'm looking for them to start making better decisions and so far so good imo as Slaf to me looks like a project that had no business being in the NHL last year, and I think management learned from their mistake with Reinbacher so if true is a good sign to me.
A - I don't think this is the year he looks like he could put up 70 pts one day, although that's highly subjective. I'd like to see him get at least 30 points, 40 if he's a regular on the PP and top 6 all season. This pick is a big one as he can't have him end up a 30 pt forward at his peak so his development is going to be major for our future.
B - until they get blueliners that can move the puck better, the PP will likely suck ass and that will likely prevent CC/Suzuki from ppg if they play all season.
C - That's an interesting one, I haven't paid attention to him since his NCAA days so I don't know but I sure hope so. We paid a high price for him, they must end up with a better then 30 pts a year kind of player. Really like the speed from him.
D- 40 pts might be tough but Guhle isn't far from that last season, as he was on pace for 34 had he played all year and kept up his .41 ppg. Harris seems like more of a 20+ pts guy. Barron was on pace for 32 pts so we'll see how this year goes for him. Xhekaj has shown he can score goals as he was 2nd on the team for D last year with 5 but his ppg is more along the lines of Harris. That said if he gets regular PP time maybe he could. I feel he's more overrated by some but we'll see as I would wait another 4 or 5 weeks to see how things unfold since it's so early into the season.
- Jan 18, 2022
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He’s had two significant injuries since 3OA. Availability is a part of a player’s profile and he’s just not available. I like the player but it’s very hard to expect him to become a 1C (or plan for it).
Not his fault, it’s just how it works in a violent sport.
So we need a 1C. We don’t even have a 1C prospect. This is a major problem.
Reinbacher hasn’t even played a game yet, let’s not hype him up too much. We could become a minute eating two way dman like Weber, or he could not.
Let’s assume he’s the next Weber just to please the toxic optimists. Let’s feel entitled to him being the next Weber.
As it stands a team with a goalie almost as good as Price (Rinne) and a defence with multiple defensive studs (Weber, Suter, etc) and a super coach couldn’t get anywhere due to lack of scoring.
We don’t have that G (player or prospect), we don’t have the other Ds (though Hutson might be our Karlsson), and we don’t have that C. I’d argue even if Slaf hits his reasonable ceiling and becomes a physically confident 70pt winger, we’d still have problems up front due to the perennial lack of 1C.
So it cannot be said the Habs are on the right track. We are missing crucial pieces of which we don’t even have the prospects.
How rare is it for all prospects to hit their ceilings? 100% of the time it doesn’t happen.
Takeru
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It’s equal parts bad luck and sincere lack of depth.
We haven’t had actual depth since the one season, I think it was 2010. Ended in a train wreck.
We never have suitable prospects to jump in, expect last year when career AHLers were scoring at 0.5ppg out of nowhere, and we never have the high end skill players to rely on to turn around tight or flat games.
I think Caufield can be that guy but a sniper needs help.
If it's too early to evaluate Reinbacher, it's too early to say we did not draft a player more impactful than Suzuki at least.
Twisted Sinister
Living in Your Head Rent Free
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Takeru
Registered User
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You paint a realistic picture expectation-wise.
Like most I tend to be hopeful and it's easy to get excited after good progression from most our prospects and pencil them all into key roles of future lineups. Experience shows it's generally not the way things go there are plenty of hurdles along the way for each of them to reach expected potential.
At this point, we don't have more elite players (no matter how you define it) than the average nhl team. Nor do we have much more blue chip prospects at forwards than average.
So it'll be a development game, where we need to see significant progression from guys that are expected to fill prominent roles on the future lineup. And hopefully stay healthy so they're actually able to walk the necessary steps to progress.
That plus whatever KH is able to wheel and deal, targeting higher quality pieces as we move forward I hope.
- Jan 18, 2022
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I operate on what’s known about him already. What the GM who drafted him said, what his current coach said, what every draft profile said. It’s not fair to anyone to say that he could surprise and surpass all reasonable expectations and it’s certainly not fair to him.
The Great Weal
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OldCraig71
Juice Arse
Most of the fanbase had so much optimism going into this season only to see it wiped away over the span of 48 hours. Guhle was injured yet again and even though it was beyond his control, same for Dach, it makes it tough to see either as key parts of a new core of players. Someone posted a reply a few days ago about the possibility that some of these players might not even be here by the time the rebuild was complete and I thought it sounded crazy but now, not so much.
Molson is the wild card in all of this and will he force the hand of management to make trades that will bring in vets with the selling point being that the playoffs are a possibility? If the injuries continue it's hard to imagine that the team will draw many fans, things are very uncertain right now.
Molson is the wild card in all of this and will he force the hand of management to make trades that will bring in vets with the selling point being that the playoffs are a possibility? If the injuries continue it's hard to imagine that the team will draw many fans, things are very uncertain right now.
BLONG7
Registered User
The drain on fans, and in Mol$on$ case, money, was in 2017 big time................Bergevin cost the team alot of money. This is when the sellout streak stopped, although they tried to pretend they were sold out.
Mol$on could very well get scared here with injuries and another lost year. Hopefully HuGo can temper his involvement and keep the ship moving in the right direction....
These guys are using their brains................anyone notice how Hughes would not give Monty his 3-5 year extension after winning a gold at the WC? Because he wasn't sure if Monty was the real deal?
The preseason and his performance in the 1st games, says good job...............again does Mol$on cave and change the narrative??
OldCraig71
Juice Arse
Fans would always say that you can't rebuild in a Montreal market and I think that was largely due in part to Molson and his desire to make the playoffs. Carey Price masked so many things but the illusion was there that this was a playoff team for so many years and it was always sold that way to the fanbase. I wonder how long he is willing to be committed to rebuilding. Surely it will be tough to draw fans with the injuries piling up and is there a possibility that a panic trade might be on the way?
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larek
Registered User
The Gr8 Dane
L'harceleur
We are tanking for 2 or 3 more years , there's nothing more to be said until we can draft some PPG forwards , honnestly. If Suzuki and Caufield are still our 2 best forwards in 2 or 3 years the rebuild was a complete and utter failure.
The Great Weal
Phil's Pizza
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Because he's carried the offense when it matters the most aka the playoffs and has outplayed the other team's #1 center every time. He can and should be much better but the lack of other high end talent throughout the lineup is why we suck
The Gr8 Dane
L'harceleur
Because he is a solid player , we need a better C than him or a superstar winger if we want to win with suzuki as our 1 C , same story as Koivu or Plecanecs , great players , not good if they are your best player
Yes we are headed straight to picking 1st overall.
Trabdy2
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Reality for me is I wasn't expecting us to be competing or making the playoffs this year based on the start of rebuilding process when Hughes took over. Hughes has only been at work since January of last year, and only been through two drafts. I wouldn't expect any other GM hire to have us competing this season, or even to be further along into a rebuild, with what Hughes inherited from Bergevin.
The Dach injury is very, very discouraging, but injuries do happen. We'll very likely be getting another high pick next draft which looks to be a pretty strong one again at the top end.
The Dach injury is very, very discouraging, but injuries do happen. We'll very likely be getting another high pick next draft which looks to be a pretty strong one again at the top end.
larek
Registered User
Hes ineffective seems disinterested and looks slower - maybe too much poutine
Lafleurs Guy
Guuuuuuuy!
- Jul 20, 2007
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I dont remember saying this. The rebuild will take as long as it takes. Dach’s injury is a good example of a setback.
I’ve looked at the 25/26 season as being when I think we might start competing for a playoff spot. But things have to go right. Roy, Beck, RB, Butson will likely be with us by then. But it could take longer…
montreal
Go Habs Go
We are tanking for as long as it takes for the young players to step up and show they can build a team around them or not. No one knows how long that will take if it even happens, could be this year or we could be in the same boat 10 years from now.
