Are the Panthers' issues over?

[BMN]

Absolute nonsense. The Coyotes were not profitable, and they never were.

Taking @Bixby Snyder at his word, he said "as it is now." The Coyotes aren't in the league now.

 

[Yukon Joe]

I honestly don't see any "bubble" teams right now. Anyone claiming there is a "bubble" team is doing it on almost complete conjecture.

The Winnipeg thread on this board is pretty thorough. It is pretty much defacto the "bubble" team if there has to be one it because its ownership decided to rattle some chains about its recent attendance (which is still nowhere near putting the franchise in jeopardy given how the league's finances are structured). But I legit think there would have to be 3-5 non-competitive years on the ice combined with another attendance decrease for there to be anything remotely worth worrying about.

What people keep missing, and just dropping Columbus into the conversation is proof of this, is that ownership itself has to want to move/sell before anything even gets put on the table. And while there's no doubt Blue Jackets' ownership grumbled about the operations of the team (AKA how it was going on the ice) this year, I've never heard any serious interest from them to sell/move. And why would they? The city gov't loves them.

Having lived through one Winnipeg relocation I'll never not be a little bit concerned about another one. But realistically:

-local government also loves them. They have several sweetheart deals (like the VLT revenue)
-decline in attendance was pushed by ownership to try and increase ticket sales, but never really with a "or else we'll leave" threat
-attendance improved later in the season
-ownership owns a lot of real estate in and around the arena that depend in part on the team being present
-extremely well financed ownership group. Unlike some owners over the years, a few years of losses wouldn't hurt as long as they think they will be profitable again.


If I had to predict a "bubble" team it would be Ottawa - but with lots of caveats. It needs a new arena, but has brand new ownership. That ownership group seems well financed, and will be given a lot of time to get that new arena deal. It would take, what, 8-10 years of not being able to get an arena deal before ownership and the league look at moving the team. And I think they'll get an arena deal.

Other one would be Buffalo - but again not really. The Pegulas are extremely dedicated to the Buffalo area, and it seems like they don't mind losing money on the franchise if that's what it takes. You'd have to predict that Terry and his wife die, and then suddenly the kids aren't so interested in owning multiple sports teams, plus no one steps up to buy the team to keep in Buffalo.

 

[Bonk]

Why would Columbus leave?

They're not. They averaged over 17,000 this season and the product has been atrocious pretty much the entire quarter century of the CBJ's existence.

 

[joelef]

They're not. They averaged over 17,000 this season and the product has been atrocious pretty much the entire quarter century of the CBJ's existence.

It just seems like the poster is throwing things at the wall.

 

[Cowumbus]

With the Panthers future secured for at least the next 3-4 seasons, the Winnipeg Jets are probably the most "bubble" team in the league. It's them and Columbus at this point.

Your username would make sense with a post like this.

So much has to go right for such a tiny market to remain viable, and even if they do, there's voices in the league that are going to state the obvious: however much money you make in tiny Winnipeg or Columbus,, there's more money to be made for the league in one if the big US cities.

I've actually wondered if the Jackets might move to Atlanta at some point. The hilarious irony of a team named after Union troops marching to Atlanta aside, it would be a solid move from a revenue sharing standpoint.

Columbus is small market despite having more people than Seattle, Nashville, Denver, Boston, Detroit and Vegas? Also bigger than Atlanta…

Largest cities in the United States by population

Ballotpedia: The Encyclopedia of American Politics

ballotpedia.org

 

[the big nobody]

Columbus is small market despite having more people than Seattle, Nashville, Denver, Boston, Detroit and Vegas? Also bigger than Atlanta…

Largest cities in the United States by population

Ballotpedia: The Encyclopedia of American Politics

ballotpedia.org

Metro, not within city limits.

Anyways, the Panthers will only have 'proven' they've 'made it' if they are able to sustain fan interest after reverting to their losing ways. It's inevitable they will, sooner or later; all teams, including those found in 'traditional' hockey markets follow a boom-and-bust cycle. Any team can sustain interest when they're winning, especially if it culminates in a championship. If at some point they start missing the playoffs again and can maintain interest after, say, four or five consecutive seasons out of the playoffs, then we'll know they've 'made it.'

 

[Headshot77]

There are no more "bubble" franchises left in the NHL. Every franchise is healthy and at little-to-no risk of relocation. Hopefully next season ushers in a new era of stability where we don't see a team move for a very long time. Every team has an owner willing to put in the work, an arena that isn't falling apart, and a decent fan base.

...which is honestly boring! What else are we going to talk about on the BoH???

 

[Cowumbus]

Metro, not within city limits.

2.18 million - Columbus Metro area is more populated than Nashville, San Jose, Raleigh, SLC, Buffalo. Cbus has 1.3 million more people than Winnipeg and we are grouping them together? @SImpelton

 

[HisIceness]

...which is honestly boring! What else are we going to talk about on the BoH???

How Myrtle Beach is the next logical NHL town!

 

[johnnybbadd]

This exactly what I’m talking about when I go after Canadian fans . Literally right after they when the cup people are calling for them to move.

It is a narrative that many Canadian fans have used forever. The honest truth is that Winnipeg and Ottawa are both less desirable markets than South Florida and they are on more shaky ground when it comes to corporate support and political support. I would wager that Florida taxpayers are more likely to support sports than Canadian taxpayers just based on how much they are already taxed.

 

[Last Rat Standing]

Metro, not within city limits.

Anyways, the Panthers will only have 'proven' they've 'made it' if they are able to sustain fan interest after reverting to their losing ways. It's inevitable they will, sooner or later; all teams, including those found in 'traditional' hockey markets follow a boom-and-bust cycle. Any team can sustain interest when they're winning, especially if it culminates in a championship. If at some point they start missing the playoffs again and can maintain interest after, say, four or five consecutive seasons out of the playoffs, then we'll know they've 'made it.'

As of recent, Carolina is the only one that shows what happens when you completely fall off a few years after winning a cup and only make the playoffs once in 13 years. Compareable markets such as Tampa, Nashville, Dallas and Vegas have all been successful on ice during their times and we've never seen an outcome in which those teams are poor for a long period of time..

Outlier was Arizona, but outside of the late 90s and 2010-2012 they were never successful. They could have been another Vegas or Dallas had they'd been successful for let's say 20 of the 27 years there

 

[RogerRoger]

2.18 million - Columbus Metro area is more populated than Nashville, San Jose, Raleigh, SLC, Buffalo. Cbus has 1.3 million more people than Winnipeg and we are grouping them together? @SImpelton

Combined statistical area is a better metric than metro area since some metros are split up in smaller chunks. San Jose-SF-Oakland is 9M, SLC-Provo-Orem is 2.8M, Columbus-Marion-Zanesville is at 2.6M, Raleigh-Durham-Cary is at 2.4M, Nashville-Davidson is at 2.4M.

Also, at current trends, Raleigh and Nashville will have larger CSAs by 2028, they are growing at about triple the rate of Columbus. But yeah, Columbus really isn't in the same boat as Winnipeg, not even close, Manitoba in its entirety is only 1.4M.

 

[Cowumbus]

Combined statistical area is a better metric than metro area since some metros are split up in smaller chunks. San Jose-SF-Oakland is 9M, SLC-Provo-Orem is 2.8M, Columbus-Marion-Zanesville is at 2.6M

Not to be pedantic but I don’t get what the reasoning is for grouping those cities together? For instance, it’s quicker to get to Dayton than Marian from Columbus. Obviously Dayton is a much larger city too. I commuted from Dayton to Columbus right out of college (1 hour). Went to school in Athens OH (counting towards that 2.6M) which is an hour and a half away… I don’t get it.

 

[Bixby Snyder]

Absolute nonsense. The Coyotes were not profitable, and they never were.

It's not nonsense at all, with the situation in Arizona taken care of the NHL is in position where all it's franchises are stable and healthy. The reason the Coyotes moved is not because of negative revenue but because of not having an appropriate building to play in. I don't have the exact numbers but most of the NHL's revenues are from television and sponsorships. While ticket sales are still important it's not the gate driven league as it once was.

 

[the big nobody]

As of recent, Carolina is the only one that shows what happens when you completely fall off a few years after winning a cup and only make the playoffs once in 13 years. Compareable markets such as Tampa, Nashville, Dallas and Vegas have all been successful on ice during their times and we've never seen an outcome in which those teams are poor for a long period of time..

Outlier was Arizona, but outside of the late 90s and 2010-2012 they were never successful. They could have been another Vegas or Dallas had they'd been successful for let's say 20 of the 27 years there

You're right, it can take a long time. The Red Wings were near-perennial contenders for close to 30 years before their current streak of non-playoff seasons happened. There are other teams currently in the midst of multiple seasons-long streaks without the playoffs after having won a cup, whether recently or not; Chicago, Philadelphia, Anaheim, and Montreal come to mind. It may take a while but it will happen eventually to the Panthers, as it happens to all teams who sustain success. When it happens, not if, one hopes the Panthers will continue to experience off-ice success, having built up a solid fan base through their successful years. If they do, then we'll know they've 'made it.'

 

[SImpelton]

Why would Columbus leave?

Low upside relative to one of the bigger urban markets.

Columbus is making money but IIRC isn't regularly spending to the cap because it can't. I think Bettman wants it so that it's at least conceivable for any NHL team to spend to the cap at any given time, so they can keep their core and there aren't "feeder teams" that exist only to develop talent for other clubs to poach.

The Jackets are definitely one such "feeder team." They struggle to retain their talent and can't sustain a strong core which brings down the average of the league in terms of competitiveness..

If Columbus is the weakest team the league has, they're not doing too bad, they're roughly analogous to teams like the Kansas City Royals or Tampa Bay Rays in MLB, but it's not hard to imagine that the Jackets could do better for themselves in a more economically powerful market such as Atlanta.