Are the Oilers a top 5 contender next season with Jack Campbell?

[jackjohnson]

Yes, they are about League average for that period. Scoring has gone up, dude. Anyway, who cares about a few degrees of save percentage? Wins are what matter. The Leafs, just like the Oilers, are an offensively-tilted club who, despite considerable talent, give up a lot of scoring chances. If a goalie's (long-term) stats are "average" on those clubs, then the goalie is probably slightly above-average in actual ability.

Here's something Leafs' fan may not be aware of since 1967: You don't win the Stanley Cup with save percentage. You win with wins. Campbell is probably the winningest goalie in the NHL (in win percentage) the past two seasons combined. The Leafs won, at a fabulous rate, when he was in net. He was the least of the club's problems.

How about we look at a larger sample than three months of last season? Here's the save percentages of goalies the past two seasons (min. 40 appearances):
1. Shesterkin .928
2. Sorokin .923
3. Saros .921
4. Varlamov .920
5. Vasilevsky .920
6. Swayman .920
7. Smith .919
8. Kuemper .917
9. Ullmark .917
10. Campbell .916
11. Forsberg .916
12. Fleury .915
13. Jarry .915
14. Markstrom .915
15. Demko .915

There are 53 goalies on this list, and Campbell ranks 10th. That's very good, especially since (as noted) Toronto are an offence-heavy team. And that's including this mythical "horrible period" he had last season.

Unfortunately, this list also makes Mike Smith look good on account of his excellent 2021 season. But I think we all know that Mike Smith is awful.

What the Oilers desperately need is a new, functional goalie tandem. I personally am pleased going into the season with Campbell and Skinner. The reigns are there for either one to grab, but I think they're going to need both of them playing consistent, decent hockey, without Mike Smith's tendencies to roam and give up goals while staring down and blaming his teammates.

Like the Leafs, the Oilers simply need League-average goaltending, but from now on without any drama, please.

Would you honestly take Campbell over Markstrom, Demko, Jarry, Fleury etc.??? Just based on this stat and knowing he was on a stacked Leafs team? Put Campbell on the Canucks and he wouldnt even rank top 30 in these same stats. Anyone that just goes by what a stat says and doesnt take the time to see gow they played, which team they played for, how they played under pressure etc. shows their lack of hockey knowledge. Ask a GM who they would pick if it was Campbell, Jarry, Demko and Markstrom as FA options, Campbell would get picked last. Again there is a reason why Leafs gave up on him. If he was any good, they would not let him go.

 

[CantHaveTkachev]

How does this has any relations with how good Campbell is? Campbell was terrible down stretch in the regular season so he wouldnt even fare that good in playoffs. There is a reason why Leafs gave up on him, they dont see him as a #1 goalie especially one that can win a cup.

so they went with a worse tandem in Murray/Samsonov

btw, "down the stretch" in April, Campbell had .915 save %

 

[Notsince67]

Campbell is a great back up goalie.

As a number one........ he is not the guy anyone would jump at having. But the Oilers definitely improved from last year in goal.


If Kane had signed with the leafs their fans would love the guy. He scored more play off goals in one round than Marner has in his career. Evander is a winger you want in a seven game series.

Kane is a defensive mess. He would likely be benched unless he changed the way he played. Cheating on defense just wont fly

 

[Voight]

Edmonton media attempts to blame the Leafs for Campbell's struggles, says he better off with Oilers

As Oilers fans continue to complain about the media forcing Leafs content down their throats, their own media can't help

www.mapleleafsinsider.com

If you as Edmonton media his struggles were all Torontos fault

 

[Eggtimer]

Campbell is too much of a head case . His play varies too much with his confidence .
He is almost too invested or takes it too much to heart when his team loses . He gets down on himself and his play fluctuates with how confident he is . He can be very good at times but other times he us below league average . If he can get that figured out , he will be fine . I’m not very confident he will figure it out as there is a lot of pressure on him and expectations are high .
I honestly think an ideal spot for him would have been a team like Buffalo or NJ where the market is not as rabid and expectations are not sky high yet the teams are on the upswing

 

[JadedLeaf]

so they went with a worse tandem in Murray/Samsonov

btw, "down the stretch" in April, Campbell had .915 save %

So he had an average month after being the worst goalie in the league for three consecutive months before that? Still a sub 900 save percentage after Christmas and coming off an .845 month when he had to be sat

 

[Ninety7]

How does this has any relations with how good Campbell is? Campbell was terrible down stretch in the regular season so he wouldnt even fare that good in playoffs. There is a reason why Leafs gave up on him, they dont see him as a #1 goalie especially one that can win a cup.

if they think Matt Murray and samsonov will win them a cup…

LMAO

 

[SeanMoneyHands]

We can afford to play Nugent Hopkins and Hyman in our bottom 6 if we wanted. That’s depth. 3 of the guys you mentioned weren’t even in our lineup in the playoffs.

Hyman is way too good and valuable of a player to be in any teams bottom 6. Not even contenders would play him in their bottom 6. And the oilers don’t have any bottom 6 guys to play in the top 6 if they wanted to play Hyman on the third line.

Who’s going to play with Draisatl, Warren no skill Foegele?

 

[MessierII]

Hyman is way too good and valuable of a player to be in any teams bottom 6. Not even contenders would play him in their bottom 6. And the oilers don’t have any bottom 6 guys to play in the top 6 if they wanted to play Hyman on the third line.

Who’s going to play with Draisatl, Warren no skill Foegele?

They already did it last year running pairs

Kane mcdavid
Draisaitl Yamamoto
Nuge Hyman

Plug and play others as 3rd wheels

 

[Rude Dog]

Avs were a juggernaut.

The Oilers aren't an average team at all, maybe if you're counting on Nurse having a torn hip flexor and Draisaitl playing on one leg every year.

Avs are still probably in their own category (though I think that gap is slimming), but the Oilers can play with anyone else.

Under Woodcroft the Oilers had a .724 win percentage in the regular season (a 119 point pace) and then made the conference finals with their no.1 D badly injured the week before the playoffs start and their no.2 forward badly injured 5 games into the playoffs.

If that's average, what exactly defines "above average"?

Oilers were 11th in the league last year both in standings and GF / GA despite having arguably the best player on the planet. So perhaps I misspoke. They are slightly above average.

That Avs juggernaut took 6 games to beat a badly beat up TB team despite being well rested from sweeping the Oilers.

Getting back to the thread, I am a fan of Campbell. He had a terrible few months, but was solid outside of that. I figured he must have been hurt. If not, I am not sure what the hell happened to him.

 

[DomBarr]

Campbell hasn't even started 50 games in a season and yet you think he might start up to 65? Yeah I really doubt that's going to happen... The guy got worse the more he played last year. He does not have the make up to play anywhere near 65 games. This guy isn't a prime Luongo lol.

I think Skinner gets to 65 games a season before Campbell does...

 

[BlueSeal]

Well if they can get every bounce in the world and 3+ points a game from McDrai, they’ll win a few series’ again, anyways

McDraiKane

 

[PaulD]

Kane is a defensive mess. He would likely be benched unless he changed the way he played. Cheating on defense just wont fly

Completely nullified Tkachuk in play offs. That'll fly.
Knocked Kadri the cheap shot artist out of the series. That'll fly.
As a rookie dropped hated Matt Cooke with one punch at center ice. That'll fly.
Stepped onto McDavids wing after 8 months off and looked like he hadn't missed a shift. That'll fly.

Can play on any team in the NHLs first line.
Anyone cutting up Evander Kanes play on the ice .....is doing so out of pure envy.

Cheers

 

[Notsince67]

Can

heap shot artist out of the series. That'll fly.
As a rookie dropped hated Matt Cooke with one punch at center ice. That'll fly.
Stepped onto McDavids wing after 8 months off and looked like he hadn't missed a shift. That'll fly.

Can play on any team in the NHLs first line.
Anyone cutting up Evander Kanes play on the ice .....is doing so out of pure envy.

cant play defense for shit. He can make a run and gun team 1st line but not one that plays two way hockey

 

[North Cole]

The best part about delusional Oilers fans (outside of them thinking the WCF was a very close series) is them believing that Campbell is an upgrade on Smith/Koskinen. Holland paid double for a goalie that is, at best, a lateral move.

View attachment 583167

The Maple leafs had the worst goaltending of any playoff team. And Campbell was a huge part of that.

Damn, we should have gone out to get Forsberg. What an insane goalie he is!

He's absolutely an upgrade on Smith/Koskinen and this whole thing is ironic when the starter the vaunted Leafs paid an extra 1.5M isn't even on here because he didn't have a starters load, not to mention this trivial analysis would tell us that Demko is barely an upgrade on Koskinen, which of course gets you laughed off the site.

Calling others delusional and then posting these useless charts is embarrassing.

 

[Volica]

Edmonton thinks Campbell's a massive upgrade on Smith/Koskinen.
Toronto thinks Matt Murray is an upgrade on Campbell.

I think both teams made very quesionable goalie moves that may define their season.

 

[The90]

Edmonton thinks Campbell's a massive upgrade on Smith/Koskinen.
Toronto thinks Matt Murray is an upgrade on Campbell.

I think both teams made very quesionable goalie moves that may define their season.

what leaf fan thinks he’s an upgrade lol

 

[Volica]

what leaf fan thinks he’s an upgrade lol

The general manager.

 

[Nothingbutglass]

what leaf fan thinks he’s an upgrade lol

Dekes and Dubas fans. Check TML goalie thread. Campbell needs a good backup for the stretches when the wheels fly off or he's fatigued and banged up. Mrazek was supposed to be that guy but shockingly was unavailable because of injury/ suckitude.

 

[The90]

Dekes and Dubas fans. Check TML goalie thread. Campbell needs a good backup for the stretches when the wheels fly off or he's fatigued and banged up. Mrazek was supposed to be that guy but shockingly was unavailable because of injury/ suckitude.

I’d rather not enter that cesspool of negativity. Most level headed fans saw it as a combo of a last ditch move when the other available goalies signed elsewhere and a gamble that he knows. It’s risky as hell. But hoping that 1 of them pan out is similar to what he did last year with hyman gone looking for a top line winger. Threw enough deuce at the wall and hoped some of it sticks. Samsonov and Murray get to play behind a very good team. It’s risky and desperate. Not many are saying he’s better than Campbell, but the majority are saying they hate campbells contract.

 

[Nothingbutglass]

I’d rather not enter that cesspool of negativity. Most level headed fans saw it as a combo of a last ditch move when the other available goalies signed elsewhere and a gamble that he knows. It’s risky as hell. But hoping that 1 of them pan out is similar to what he did last year with hyman gone looking for a top line winger. Threw enough deuce at the wall and hoped some of it sticks. Samsonov and Murray get to play behind a very good team. It’s risky and desperate. Not many are saying he’s better than Campbell, but the majority are saying they hate campbells contract.

Fair. If I had a choice, I would gamble on Campbell and worry about the last few years later. Its telling that Caps jettisoned Samsonov so fast and Murray is likely broken.

 

[The90]

Fair. If I had a choice, I would gamble on Campbell and worry about the last few years later. Its telling that Caps jettisoned Samsonov so fast and Murray is likely broken.

Campbell is broken lol. He’s had injury issues since he came to the leafs. It’s a different side of the same coin.

Both teams likely made lateral moves.

 

[Rude Dog]

The general manager.

I'm going to be very careful here. The word on Campbell around town is that the Leaf players loved him. Hard not to love. But management was worried about his emotional highs and lows. But there was also some off ice stuff going on (not malicious), but concerning where some fires had to be put out more than once around town. Hence the lowball offer. They believed Fleury was their guy heading into free agency, but it fell apart last minute when the agent sensing a lack of options came back with new demands. Murray was far from plan A.

Anyway, I love Campbell the person. Can't stand the Oilers, so although while I will be cheering for him, I can't wish him too well. Same with your other Toronto boys in McDavid, Hyman and Nurse. I watched them when they were young and always pull for local guys to succeed.

 

[Coffey]

People think the upgrade was from Smith the Campbell.

When the real upgrade is from Koskinen to Skinner.
The city was BEGGING for Skinner to replace Kosk as the backup. BEGGING.

 

[ALine]

Maybe the reactionaries on this board, Oiler fans themselves? Yawn.

We already did the goaltending drama/rollercoaster up and lots of downs last year, no one is demanding Campbell carry the Oilers to the playoffs even. Just be yourself dude.

That’s the whole debate on Campbell though, what is he when he’s just being himself. Is he October/November Campbell or January onwards Campbell? He’s a bit of a rollercoaster himself.

As for the title question, no. Jack Campbell himself will not make the Oilers a top contender. That falls on the whole goalie group. It’s entirely reasonable to assume he cannot start 50+ games given his record of starts and health issues. Is Skinner ready to take on 30+ starts this season with positive success ? I couldn’t tell you but it seems like a lot to ask.
I’m not sure who else Edmonton has in the wings but it seems like a team poised to pluck another decent 3rd stringer off waivers or trade, If the cap allows.