Are the Jets for real or are they going to crash and burn?

[Schennanigans]

They have basically sealed a playoff spot. Just go .500 rest of the way and they’ll get in. Only a complete collapse can stop them.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

I get what you’re trying to say, but that “only +13” would place 6th in the league right now.

Yeah I'm not even being critical - they're a great team, I'm guessing they won't be netting almost 1.5 goals a game from special teams / EN situations.

 

[Nolan Giesbrecht]

Yeah I'm not even being critical - they're a great team, I'm guessing they won't be netting almost 1.5 goals a game from special teams / EN situations.

Likely not, but the power play has been a complete revelation this year, especially compared to last year.

I’m sure teams will compensate and throw new things at them, but I have faith in the coaches this year to come up with solutions.

 

[winnipegger]

Yeah I'm not even being critical - they're a great team, I'm guessing they won't be netting almost 1.5 goals a game from special teams / EN situations.

The offense in general will slow down. If it doesn't they will set some more NHL records. A 16 game sample is what it is.

 

[TheDawnOfANewTage]

I'll do bullet points rather than a long drawn out paragraph
- Core has been together a long time. Most are home grown and grew up in the NHL together. Together experienced lots of ups and downs.
- Team became fractured, locker room issues, inmates running the asylum so to speak. No accountability, poor leadership from Wheeler. Paul Maurice quits.
- Bowness is brought in to fix the culture and establish a much better team defensive system and more offense from the D. Wheeler has the C removed and eventually bought out. Players who don't want to be in Winnipeg are moved -Dubios return was another masterclass move by Chevy.
- Schiefele and Helly re-signed despite mainstream media claiming they want to move on and hinting at a rebuild. Lowry named C, everyone in the room now had a voice.
- Bowness continues to instill a great team defensive structure, although special teams were extremely poor. Had no answers to AVs strategic changes that were made to exploit the Jets weaknesses in their game.
- Arniel given the reigns - Team defensive structure remains the same, although allowing the Fwd's to be more aggressive. Saw the same thing in Dallas once Bowness left there, their offence sky rocketed.
- New assistant coaches brought in with a massive overhaul to our special teams. Much more aggressive, more modern, more fast puck movement rather than stagnated set plays that are easy to defend. I think this is where we're seeing the biggest improvement which is translating to more success.
- Core is older now, they are bought in and we're seeing this. I'd use the example of Ovi and the Caps figuring out that they need to buy in and play defense as well the year they won the cup.
- Chevy said in an interview the other day that they realized they needed more speed. Monahan and Toffoli really hampered that last year. Top 6 is solid, Namestikov is holding his own at 2C. Arguably the best 3rd line in the league, solid 4th line. Production up and down the line up. Helly the best goalie in the league, and the weakness of our D core is widely exagerated. One of the best #1 D man in the league in Morrissey. Pionk is having a great season. Samberg was clearly ready for Dillions spot in the top 4. Miller is showing he should have played more. And even though he's been injured, I feel a lot of people are going to find out soon enough how good Heinola really is.

Thanks a bunch! Fee

I'll do bullet points rather than a long drawn out paragraph
- Core has been together a long time. Most are home grown and grew up in the NHL together. Together experienced lots of ups and downs.
- Team became fractured, locker room issues, inmates running the asylum so to speak. No accountability, poor leadership from Wheeler. Paul Maurice quits.
- Bowness is brought in to fix the culture and establish a much better team defensive system and more offense from the D. Wheeler has the C removed and eventually bought out. Players who don't want to be in Winnipeg are moved -Dubios return was another masterclass move by Chevy.
- Schiefele and Helly re-signed despite mainstream media claiming they want to move on and hinting at a rebuild. Lowry named C, everyone in the room now had a voice.
- Bowness continues to instill a great team defensive structure, although special teams were extremely poor. Had no answers to AVs strategic changes that were made to exploit the Jets weaknesses in their game.
- Arniel given the reigns - Team defensive structure remains the same, although allowing the Fwd's to be more aggressive. Saw the same thing in Dallas once Bowness left there, their offence sky rocketed.
- New assistant coaches brought in with a massive overhaul to our special teams. Much more aggressive, more modern, more fast puck movement rather than stagnated set plays that are easy to defend. I think this is where we're seeing the biggest improvement which is translating to more success.
- Core is older now, they are bought in and we're seeing this. I'd use the example of Ovi and the Caps figuring out that they need to buy in and play defense as well the year they won the cup.
- Chevy said in an interview the other day that they realized they needed more speed. Monahan and Toffoli really hampered that last year. Top 6 is solid, Namestikov is holding his own at 2C. Arguably the best 3rd line in the league, solid 4th line. Production up and down the line up. Helly the best goalie in the league, and the weakness of our D core is widely exagerated. One of the best #1 D man in the league in Morrissey. Pionk is having a great season. Samberg was clearly ready for Dillions spot in the top 4. Miller is showing he should have played more. And even though he's been injured, I feel a lot of people are going to find out soon enough how good Heinola really is.

Fantastic, thank you. I feel like Winnipeg and Buffalo are similar in some ways (tank/picks obviously different), so it’s great to have a picture of how it should be done.

 

[Regal]

I'd say so. They currently have a 1.023 PDO. It should go down but not by too much, because they have stellar goaltending.

Whether that translates into playoff success is unclear, but given the league's history, I tend to doubt it.

That’s not right. Natural stat truck is showing a low PDO based on under 10% shooting for some reason, but they have 73 goals on 502 shots which is 14.5%. Their PDO is 1.075

 

[Deno]

Filthy

https://www.nhl.com/video/topic/highlights/wpg-nyr-vilardi-scores-ppg-against-igor-shesterkin-6364622945112

As a life long Jet fan.
Thank you so much LA!!!

 

[Deno]

LOL!
Only the middle of Nov and the Jets have a 99.9% of making the POs.

Playoff Probabilities Report | Hockey-Reference.com

Probability of making the Stanley Cup playoffs

www.hockey-reference.com

 

[Jaytee]

LOL!
Only the middle of Nov and the Jets have a 99.9% of making the POs.

Playoff Probabilities Report | Hockey-Reference.com

Probability of making the Stanley Cup playoffs

www.hockey-reference.com

That’s probably a pretty good estimate. Look at it this way...
If the Jets play .500 hockey for the rest of the season, they finish with 96 points, and probably make the playoffs. Is there anything...anything at all...that indicates that the Jets will regress so far from how they’re playing now to a .500 team.
Doing so would be just about the worst scenario imaginable for the team, and even then, they’d probably make the playoffs.
Unless you can reasonably see a 15-1 team go 1-15, I don’t see them missing the playoffs. What they do, once they get there, is another question, a question nobody knows the answer to, especially those who are convinced they do.

 

[abax44]

Unfortunately, one thing all those teams have in common: they didn't win the Stanley Cup in those seasons.


m.

Historical start. Historical finish.

I hope.

 

[SeanMoneyHands]

Wonder if they can go 20-1. That would be incredible.

 

[Deno]

That’s probably a pretty good estimate. Look at it this way...
If the Jets play .500 hockey for the rest of the season, they finish with 96 points, and probably make the playoffs. Is there anything...anything at all...that indicates that the Jets will regress so far from how they’re playing now to a .500 team.
Doing so would be just about the worst scenario imaginable for the team, and even then, they’d probably make the playoffs.
Unless you can reasonably see a 15-1 team go 1-15, I don’t see them missing the playoffs. What they do, once they get there, is another question, a question nobody knows the answer to, especially those who are convinced they do.

Agree with all of this. I've been watching these odds for POs for years, I've never seen a 99.9% chance of making the POs show up in Nov. These don't usually show up until Jan at lease. It goes to show how important a 15.1.0 start can be.

 

[NVious]

The team employs a literal frigging Wizard to hex the other team, the other teams never stood a chance.

 

[Saidin]

View attachment 930562

The team employs a literal frigging Wizard to hex the other team, the other teams never stood a chance.

We have friggen Gandalf behind us. 81-1 here we go!

 

[NotCommitted]

The core is made of players who already were a big part of the team that made the conference finals in 2017-2018 as youngsters. Back then it looked like that team was going to grow into a powerhouse for years. Some twists and turns later, maybe they finally made it.

 

[abax44]

They will obviously come back down to earth.....and to be honest I still wouldn't put them with the top teams yet.....they need to prove this over the whole season and finally do something in the playoffs.....

Odd stance since no team has proven anything over the full season, given that we're only ~1/5 of the way into it.

 

[larmex99]

I hope that all of those posters who think the Jets are losers and can’t do anything in the playoffs ramp up their criticism. The more the better and hopefully the Jet’s players are reading every shot taken at them. The bigger the chip on their shoulders the better. Hating to lose is far better than loving to win.

 

[Buffdog]

Crazy that they have 6 goals on 9 shots in only 3 total minutes with the extra attacker.

They have a +39 goal differential, but are only +13 during 5v5 play. That's crazy - they are averaging a +1.62 goal differential per game on special teams / EN situations.

They're a great team but there's no way that's sustainable lol.

I missed the part where the NHL stopped counting goals that weren't scored 5v5

Special teams play a very important role. More goals are scored per minute on the PP (and given up on the PK) than at 5v5 (although the total number of goals at 5v5 is higher die total he fact that most of the game is played there)

 

[Cypruss]

When you factor in the 8 game winning streak to end last season....they are now 23 - 1 in their last 24 regular season games.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

I missed the part where the NHL stopped counting goals that weren't scored 5v5

Special teams play a very important role. More goals are scored per minute on the PP (and given up on the PK) than at 5v5 (although the total number of goals at 5v5 is higher die total he fact that most of the game is played there)

I missed the part where I said those goals shouldn't count.

I am just pointing out an interesting data point. 6 goals scored with the goalie pulled in 16 games is pretty impressive. Rangers led the league with 11 total last year.

The lesson here is that Winnipeg is crazy dangerous with an extra skater - 25 goals in ~74 minutes of ice time with an extra skater. That's a goal every 3 minutes, so it's probably not wise to take penalties against them. Take your chances 5v5 lol.

 

[Carbooja]

Thanks a bunch! Fee


Fantastic, thank you. I feel like Winnipeg and Buffalo are similar in some ways (tank/picks obviously different), so it’s great to have a picture of how it should be done.

Love your city and been there often. Going there for the Jets vs Sabres game.

View attachment 930562

The team employs a literal frigging Wizard to hex the other team, the other teams never stood a chance.

Here's another photo of him

 

[Erik Alfredsson]

They're a good team that's riding a (long) hot streak. They will obviously make the playoffs, but I wouldn't bet on anything beyond that. They were red hot going into the playoffs last year, but they didn't impress me much and I thought they'd get smoked, which they did.

Whether or not they can deliver in the playoffs remains to be seen, but I've always liked the Jets, so I hope they can pull it off.

 

[JaegerDice]

They're not quite as fake as the 2014 Avalanche, but they're not for real.

Their GF% is a full 10 points higher than their xGF%, and their xGA/60 is damn near a goal per game higher than their actual GA/60.

The latter can be attributed to goaltending, and their goaltender has been good enough, long enough to believe that he can hold up that gap. The problem is come playoff time, pretty much every team has at least decent goaltending (or 'good enough') so that advantage decreases and the rest of the team's flaws become more pronounced.

They're more likely to flame out in the first round than they are to win a cup if they continue to play the way they are now.

Lots of season left though.