Are the Caps this year's biggest frauds?

[eviohh26]

They seem like a pretty legit 4 line team.

 

[Randyne]

Based on a whole number of statistical variables.

For instance evolving hockey shows a breakdown on what their model uses to judge the shots most likely to result in goals. Distance is the biggest decider. Next is time since last shot. Anything less than a few seconds is a rebound which has a way higher chance of going in. Then they look at angle, is he shooting from center of the ice or from the half boards, etc etc etc.

Here's a primer on what goes into expected goals models:

Inside the Stats: Expected Goals

Expected goals are one of the most useful analytics concepts. They are also the most heavily criticized – some of which is warranted, and some not so much. One thing that is certain is expected goals has ballooned in popularity in recent years. For those who haven’t heard of it or have heard of...

insidetherink.com

trash stat. Any goal is a goal.

 

[GMR]

Yeah we “lucked out” when we signed Dylan Strome after every team in FA had a chance to get him. It’s okay man maybe you guys can finally get a wildcard spot this year there’s no need to still be bitter after 10 months. In the mean time you can also watch Ovechkin break the record good luck out there man

LOL. You're taking this too seriously. Or you're like 12.

I agree other teams should have signed Strome. It was a good move by Washington and a failure by others.

I've seen my team win plenty of Championships. I think I'll be Okay. I don't need a Caps fan of all people to give sympathy.

A wildcard spot is nice but getting swept by the top seed won't do the Wings any good this year. They're not ready to contend. That's all that matters. We already had a 25 year consecutive playoff streak and the last five years of that streak set the franchise back. I'm glad Yzerman isn't mortgaging the future for short gains like Ken Holland was toward the end.

 

[OilersFanatics505]

Having watch them some and idk how they have 77 points.

How are they doing it?

I see they have 7 OT losses which has given them a but of an artificial lead over some of rest of the leaders in the east,

I see teams in the east getting past them easily.

Carolina, Florida, Toronto, maybe NJ.

You take away everyone’s OT losses and they are still 2nd in the league behind Winnipeg? Are you just salty?

2nd in the league in Goals For and 4th in Goals Against… what even is this thread?

Also, in your scenario are you only counting Washington’s OT losses and ignoring the other teams?

 

[Bank Shot]

trash stat. Any goal is a goal.

Why even bother asking if you are just going to ooga booga the response?

 

[Perfect_Drug]

There's a long list of regular season super-teams that don't make it far in the playoffs due to a lack of elite players.

There's also plenty of teams that go far based solely on elite goaltending.

Washington seems to be a mix of both, and everyone is having problems slotting them for those reasons.

Those Barry Trotz islanders teams were the last 'team-defense' teams with no elite pieces go far.

 

[max21]

LOL. You're taking this too seriously. Or you're like 12.

I agree other teams should have signed Strome. It was a good move by Washington and a failure by others.

I've seen my team win plenty of Championships. I think I'll be Okay. I don't need a Caps fan of all people to give sympathy.

A wildcard spot is nice but getting swept by the top seed won't do the Wings any good this year. They're not ready to contend. That's all that matters. We already had a 25 year consecutive playoff streak and the last five years of that streak set the franchise back. I'm glad Yzerman isn't mortgaging the future for short gains like Ken Holland was toward the end.

Okay man, you just came into this thread looking for a response to your obvious agenda towards Washington. “What have they done other than 2018?” “It’s the Capitals, they’re going to get swept” and you’re calling me 12 lol. I like the Wings, and I still find it amusing you guys are still pissed after you had ample opportunity to take that playoff spot last year.
Doesn’t need to be any more strife though, I agree with what you said. Good luck the rest of the year.

 

[Randyne]

Why even bother asking if you are just going to ooga booga the response?

Why to post "30 more than expected"?
They scored those goals. Some random dude invented trash stat and called those goals wrong.
From your link they explain why stat is trash. Like "Hey that guy scored 22 more goals than he should - It's a red flag! Oh it's Matthews, so it's not a red flag anymore"

 

[GMR]

Okay man, you just came into this thread looking for a response to your obvious agenda towards Washington. “What have they done other than 2018?” “It’s the Capitals, they’re going to get swept” and you’re calling me 12 lol. I like the Wings, and I still find it amusing you guys are still pissed after you had ample opportunity to take that playoff spot last year.
Doesn’t need to be any more strife though, I agree with what you said. Good luck the rest of the year.

I don't hate Washington (they're not the Penguins for me) but they're like the boy who cried wolf. We've seen great regular seasons from them before that resulted in early playoff losses. I understand the personnel have changed but the leadership is still similar. Outside of 2018, Ovechkin, Backstrom, Carlson didn't get them anywhere. They still have Ovie and Carlson. Hopefully Ovie plays like he gives a crap in these playoffs, unlike last year.

They've made the playoffs plenty since winning the Cup but they will not be taken seriously by most fans until they win in the playoffs again.

 

[GeeoffBrown]

I think it would have been a classy move to retire with 899 (8 for OV 99 for Gretzky) but he's still scoring like he's in his 20's so he probably will hit 1000.

Be kind of awkward for him to pick a specific number because he will likely beat Gretz early next season and then still have a whole season to play. But then, who knows what he does after that

 

[mad4comp]

I don't hate Washington (they're not the Penguins for me) but they're like the boy who cried wolf. We've seen great regular seasons from them before that resulted in early playoff losses. I understand the personnel have changed but the leadership is still similar. Outside of 2018, Ovechkin, Backstrom, Carlson didn't get them anywhere. They still have Ovie and Carlson. Hopefully Ovie plays like he gives a crap in these playoffs, unlike last year.

They've made the playoffs plenty since winning the Cup but they will not be taken seriously by most fans until they win in the playoffs again.

They're not only one of the top offensive teams in the league.. but also one of the best defensive teams in the league. None of those previous caps teams come to close to the defensive numbers.. offensively they were juggernauts but heavily biased towards offense. This team is much more balanced and tops in both and don't rely on their PP either.

 

[OilersFanatics505]

Yea, Bob was off and gave up a couple gimmies, but the Panther forecheck was rolling 5on5 in the game.

And I have seen that story play out in multiple 7 game series over the last two years.

I just do not see how Washington keeps up during it on a team over 7 games in the playoffs.

They are a fun story this year, but as a Cats fan, NJ even scares me a bit more than the Caps.

Before I even get to a series with Carolina or Toronto.

So your goalies was having an off day but their defense couldn’t possibly be having an off day? That’s not even conceivable? And they still beat you?

 

[Block]

Where is the weakness on the roster?

If I had to say somewhere, it'd be top end scoring talent, but they make up for it with depth.

 

[Zuluss]

Many players on the Caps are outperforming right now, and one has to wonder when reversion to the mean will kick in.
On the other hand, the same can be said pretty much about any Cup winner: "they won because several players played well above expectations during the Cup run".
The only thing that it is not playoffs yet, and for the Caps the reversion to the mean can come earlier than June.
Will it? Just wait and see.

 

[CapsCrazyX17]

I don't hate Washington (they're not the Penguins for me) but they're like the boy who cried wolf. We've seen great regular seasons from them before that resulted in early playoff losses. I understand the personnel have changed but the leadership is still similar. Outside of 2018, Ovechkin, Backstrom, Carlson didn't get them anywhere. They still have Ovie and Carlson. Hopefully Ovie plays like he gives a crap in these playoffs, unlike last year.

They've made the playoffs plenty since winning the Cup but they will not be taken seriously by most fans until they win in the playoffs again.

I'm sorry, what is this about Ovi not giving a crap? You're so wrong that I don't even know where to begin. A 38-year old Ovi literally carried the Caps' offense in the second half of the season to drag them into the playoffs last year and was, inevitably, totally gassed for the playoffs. This by no means indicates that he doesn't "give a crap". If you don't like the Caps' chances this year or doubt them then that's fine, you do you, but stop making stuff up.

 

[Calicaps]

I don't hate Washington (they're not the Penguins for me) but they're like the boy who cried wolf. We've seen great regular seasons from them before that resulted in early playoff losses. I understand the personnel have changed but the leadership is still similar. Outside of 2018, Ovechkin, Backstrom, Carlson didn't get them anywhere. They still have Ovie and Carlson. Hopefully Ovie plays like he gives a crap in these playoffs, unlike last year.

They've made the playoffs plenty since winning the Cup but they will not be taken seriously by most fans until they win in the playoffs again.

You think Ovie didn't "give a crap"? What actually happened was that 38-year-old Ovie basically single-handedly willed his team into the playoffs but was exhausted by the time they got there. This season, with a much strong roster around him, he's having to do much less of the heavy lifting, which as almost 40 is important for his endurance. Nobody in DC cares more about winning than Ovechkin, and he knows that he's facing his last one or two chances at a Cup. Come playoffs, I expect as close to God Mode as old Ovie can be.

 

[GirardIsStupid]

The biggest frauds are Colorado. Not Washington. Avalanche are poorly coached with a bunch of their players lacking leadership.

 

[Caps8112]

caps are in the category of "no one knows" what they are this season. They turned over almost half the roster and are relying on kids that were on the team last year that have taken a big step. Florida is the only team in the east that Id say worries me but mainly due to them having just won. Think its anyones chance otherwise. The rangers are climbing back into it too. Nothing scarier then a team that was ridiculous last season and are now forced to basically win every game from jan on to get in. If they get in they will be dangerous.

 

[Pablo El Perro]

If their goalies continue playing the way they have in the regular season, they can beat anyone in the playoffs.

 

[spiny norman]

To answer the OP's question, I'd say: no

 

[Fred22406Capsfan]

Frauds. Tops in the East currently by 12 points and a game in hand on 2nd place? Oh yeah. "Frauds".

 

[Pablo El Perro]

Frauds. Tops in the East currently by 12 points and a game in hand on 2nd place? Oh yeah. "Frauds".

The op was sour. Don't make too much of this

 

[Midnight Judges]

If I had to say somewhere, it'd be top end scoring talent, but they make up for it with depth.

Yeah that's fair. They don't have any 100 point players.

But the depth is among the best in the NHL. The Caps have 4 lines that can score while simultaneously playing responsible hockey (#2 in the NHL in GF/GP and also #2 in GA/GP).

 

[EroCaps]

Many players on the Caps are outperforming right now, and one has to wonder when reversion to the mean will kick in.
On the other hand, the same can be said pretty much about any Cup winner: "they won because several players played well above expectations during the Cup run".
The only thing that it is not playoffs yet, and for the Caps the reversion to the mean can come earlier than June.
Will it? Just wait and see.

Outperforming or developing?

Protas and McMichael are kids and guys like Dubois and Chycrun are playing to their potential.

Thats 2 projected 30 goal scorers, a Top 6 C and Top pairing D man this season.

Tom Wilson is overperfomlng his goal totals.

Mangiapane is actually underperforming.

 

[thedjpd]

Got outplayed by quite a bit by the Flyers today. Flyers have crap PDO all season, and WSH the best. This years Vancouver.