Are the Caps this years biggest frauds?

[GRob83]

Where is the weakness on the roster?

Shootouts, which is irrelevant once playoffs start.

 

[GRob83]

How can they have one of the easiest schedules so far but 2nd easiest moving forward?

Doesn't matter anyways. They were only projected for 81 points this season and they already have 77 with 29 games remaining. Ovechkin was out for 16 games and they continued winning. They do have the 2nd easiest schedule but 44 more points would beat the team record from the 09/10 season back when Ovechkin was only 24. Now at age 39, he's 2nd in goals per game behind Draisaitl who is 10 years younger. This isn't the best team they've ever had, but Carberry has them playing out of their minds.

 

[GRob83]

Too many people want to be the ' next one ' to call out teams for being frauds. There are teams built for regular season success vs teams built for playoff success.

It is hard to tell what the Caps are built for but there is a fine line between overachieving and being simply a good team that does not have playoff mentality.

They haven't lost more than 2 games in a row all season and their record when allowing the 1st goal is better than most teams records when they score the 1st goal. That has playoffs written all over it. They had a winning record without Ovechkin for 16 games, the team just get's it done.

 

[Voight]

Don't think so. They aren't replying on a. bunch of veterans having career years or anything like that.

Carberry is just that good of a coach.

 

[GMR]

Honestly, that cup run should have been their peak for an aging team with Backstrom and Kuznetsov… and every year we expect their demise similar to Pittsburgh, yet unlike Pitts they didn’t need to sacrifice their future to remain relevant. That’s impressive.

They lucked out because Arizona and Chicago didn't keep Dylan Strome. Arizona gave up on him and Chicago for whatever reason didn't want to re-sign him. Now he's overproducing on a cheap contract.

 

[RANDOMH3RO]

They are extremely legit this year. Haven’t had almost any down periods, just straight up great play bell to bell. That being said, I don’t think there is any way they replicate it again next season. Too many guys all playing perfectly at the same time, really hard to do 2 seasons in a row.

 

[GeeoffBrown]

Looks like the Capitals have made the playoffs 15 of the last 17 seasons. Granted, Ovechkin is nearing the end of his career now.

 

[Misery74]

Just wait until you see what’s next.

Caps will acquire top 6 winger, and bring in Ryan Leonard.

This team gets to a Conference Final.

 

[Misery74]

You’re a Caps fan, so I wouldn’t expect you to agree.



Everyone’s team has some of the best prospects in the world until they play an NHL game.

I think, to be fair, those are some of the highest rated prospects outside NHL.

The Capitals have a chance to do something very special this year, and beyond.

 

[GRob83]

Looks like the Capitals have made the playoffs 15 of the last 17 seasons. Granted, Ovechkin is nearing the end of his career now.

He's 2nd in the league in goals per game and still leads the Caps in goals despite missing 16 games.

 

[GeeoffBrown]

He's 2nd in the league in goals per game and still leads the Caps in goals despite missing 16 games.

Maybe he'll get to 1000 goals and then retire?

 

[Midnight Judges]

Just wait until you see what’s next.

Caps will acquire top 6 winger, and bring in Ryan Leonard.

This team gets to a Conference Final.

There is a high randomness factor in hockey.

Anything can happen in a 7 game series.

 

[Nemesis Prime]

Wouldn't be surprised to see them win it all.

 

[vippe]

Quality OP right there, so much thought put in to it.

 

[Bank Shot]

Having watch them some and idk how they have 77 points.

How are they doing it?

I see they have 7 OT losses which has given them a but of an artificial lead over some of rest of the leaders in the east,

I see teams in the east getting past them easily.

Carolina, Florida, Toronto, maybe NJ.

Goaltending is unsustainable. That's how.

Thompson is at 24 Wins in 30 games. On pace to blow past the regular season wins record of Holtby's 48 in 66 games. Thompson on pace to do it in 60.

Moneypuck has them first in goaltending and like 17th in scoring chances for/against.

To me the Caps are a team that should finish between 10th and 20th with a normal amount of variance. They are catching extremely positive variance on both shooting % and save % though and are 2nd in the standings.

I don't think that is reflective of their actual roster strength but good on them.

 

[Catscountry40]

They’d still be first in the East even if you removed all the OT/SO loss points.

Could any of the teams you mentioned beat Washington in a 7 game series?

Yes.

Could Washington also beat any of them in a 7 game series?

Also yes.

Sorry that they beat the Florida kitties last night. I watched the same game as you and the
difference was between the pipes.

Yea, Bob was off and gave up a couple gimmies, but the Panther forecheck was rolling 5on5 in the game.

And I have seen that story play out in multiple 7 game series over the last two years.

I just do not see how Washington keeps up during it on a team over 7 games in the playoffs.

They are a fun story this year, but as a Cats fan, NJ even scares me a bit more than the Caps.

Before I even get to a series with Carolina or Toronto.

 

[I Hate Blake Coleman]

2nd best goal diff. Large gap over 3rd place Stars.

2nd most goals scored.

4th least goals against.

30 regulation wins, 2nd overall

Best points percentage

I think they might be a good team...

 

[GRob83]

Maybe he'll get to 1000 goals and then retire?

I think it would have been a classy move to retire with 899 (8 for OV 99 for Gretzky) but he's still scoring like he's in his 20's so he probably will hit 1000.

 

[Alexander the Gr8]

Yea, Bob was off and gave up a couple gimmies, but the Panther forecheck was rolling 5on5 in the game.

And I have seen that story play out in multiple 7 game series over the last two years.

I just do not see how Washington keeps up during it on a team over 7 games in the playoffs.

They are a fun story this year, but as a Cats fan, NJ even scares me a bit more than the Caps.

Before I even get to a series with Carolina or Toronto.

Washington is a very big team. A ton of bigger guys like PLD, Protas, Wilson and Ovechkin that are hard to handle in a physical series. Mix that in with very fast forwards like Frank, McMichael and Mangiapane and that’s a good mix.

Time will tell, but I believe in this team.

 

[Bank Shot]

2nd best goal diff. Large gap over 3rd place Stars.

2nd most goals scored.

4th least goals against.

30 regulation wins, 2nd overall

Best points percentage

I think they might be a good team...

Their actual goal differential is like 30 goals better than their expected goal differential.

Its like the Rangers winning the president's trophy last year while being like +1 at 5v5 over the season.

Wild stuff is happening in the cap era.

 

[Randyne]

better than their expected

expected by whom? Nostradamus? Can someone explain that stat.

 

[LokiDog]

I don’t think they’re frauds at all. They built an improved roster by adding solid but un-sexy names and being patient with some young guys who weren’t initially on most people’s radar for breakouts. They’re not particularly high flying and exciting, but they’re not enjoying unsustainable luck or really boasting an inflated point total due to insane OTL totals.

That said, I don’t think it matters where they finish in the regular season, I still have a tough time seeing them getting past teams like Florida or Carolina, and possibly even NJ or a healthy TB. Obviously TB has to make it first, but they’re so hard to bet against in the playoffs. However, like a couple others have said… I don’t feel super strongly about this one way or the other. They’ve done well with the moves they’ve made, they’re playing well and they deserve to be where they are thus far. They don’t strike me as being a top contender but that doesn’t make them frauds and it doesn’t mean I’m right either.

 

[Bank Shot]

expected by whom? Nostradamus? Can someone explain that stat.

Based on a whole number of statistical variables.

For instance evolving hockey shows a breakdown on what their model uses to judge the shots most likely to result in goals. Distance is the biggest decider. Next is time since last shot. Anything less than a few seconds is a rebound which has a way higher chance of going in. Then they look at angle, is he shooting from center of the ice or from the half boards, etc etc etc.

Here's a primer on what goes into expected goals models:

Inside the Stats: Expected Goals

Expected goals are one of the most useful analytics concepts. They are also the most heavily criticized – some of which is warranted, and some not so much. One thing that is certain is expected goals has ballooned in popularity in recent years. For those who haven’t heard of it or have heard of...

insidetherink.com

 

[tfwnogf]

Their actual goal differential is like 30 goals better than their expected goal differential.

Its like the Rangers winning the president's trophy last year while being like +1 at 5v5 over the season.

Wild stuff is happening in the cap era.

It's the CAPS era

 

[max21]

They lucked out because Arizona and Chicago didn't keep Dylan Strome. Arizona gave up on him and Chicago for whatever reason didn't want to re-sign him. Now he's overproducing on a cheap contract.

Yeah we “lucked out” when we signed Dylan Strome after every team in FA had a chance to get him. It’s okay man maybe you guys can finally get a wildcard spot this year there’s no need to still be bitter after 10 months. In the mean time you can also watch Ovechkin break the record good luck out there man