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Are the 2024-2025 Edmonton Oilers the biggest preseason cup favourites of all time?

Bounces R Way said:
I mean they have a decent shot and his name is Connor McDavid, but I wouldn't have them in the top 3. Probably either 5 or 6, maybe 5 because the Pacific is junk.

They got older, slower, softer, and smaller over the offseason. Their RD depth is horrendous, they are a Bouchard or Ekholm injury away from total defensive calamity. RD also happens to be one of the more premium positions to acquire especially mid-season. Still not a Skinner believer either, his lateral movement and down low puck coverage are not NHL average.

They are going to score a lot of goals because that's what they do but I think this notion that they've 'figured it out' because of a deep playoff run is premature. They also started last season as a favourite for the cup and were so bad they had to fire the coach. They would have missed the playoffs if not for a freak winning streak.
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They had the best record in the league for 85% of the season, lol (Nov. 12 onwards), that's not "just one freak winning streak".

There is no team that is like 5-6 deep on their D corps either, that's a fantasy, because of the cap most top teams have one great pair and then maybe a pretty good no.3 and then spots 4/5/6 are a bunch of filler.

Look at Florida, their bottom 4 even from last season is not an All-Star group nor is this year's team but they're probably going to be very good. Dallas' bottom 4 also very unimpressive (how washed up is Matt Dumba).

Defensive structure can be taught if you have a good enough coach who doesn't compromise on detail.

Offensive talent can't be taught. You either have that or you don't.
 
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Oilers are easily in the top 3 to lift the cup, however they really need to find a proper top 4 defenseman and a young aggressive forward in the bottom 6 to offset the loss of a Holloway/McLeod. If they find these 2, they win, Skinner just needs to be above average.
 
They won't even make the playoffs thus keeping Jeff Skinner's impressive streak alive.
 
Not even close.

See Canadiens of the late 1970s, Islanders of the early 1980s and the Oilers of the late 1980s. The Cup engraver started the process before the season even started.

This year’s Oilers wouldn’t even be in the top 10 of most favored team to start the season in the post-cap era.

This Oilers team is a contender but has some serious flaws on D and the goaltending is average.
 
Soundwave said:
They had the best record in the league for 85% of the season, lol (Nov. 12 onwards), that's not "just one freak winning streak".

There is no team that is like 5-6 deep on their D corps either, that's a fantasy, because of the cap most top teams have one great pair and then maybe a pretty good no.3 and then spots 4/5/6 are a bunch of filler.

Look at Florida.
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Their pt% without that winning streak would have had them out of the playoffs. Now of course that's not really how it works because in a normal month you wouldn't lose or win every game but that's the reality.

There are absolutely teams that have 6 solid defenseman suited for their roles. One of the calling cards of most cup winners really. 4/5/6 are still important spots for any team hoping to go deep, and likely that the 7/8 spots are going to get used at some point too. Filler can mean a lot of things, there's still good filler and bad filler. Brendan Dillon, Jonas Siegenthaler, Nic Hague, Zach Whitecloud, OEL at less than 1.5, they might be filler but they are good filler.
 
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Bounces R Way said:
Their pt% without that winning streak would have had them out of the playoffs. Now of course that's not really how it works because in a normal month you wouldn't lose or win every game but that's the reality.

There are absolutely teams that have 6 solid defenseman suited for their roles. One of the calling cards of most cup winners really. 4/5/6 are still important spots for any team hoping to go deep, and likely that the 7/8 spots are going to get used at some point too. Filler can mean a lot of things, there's still good filler and bad filler. Brendan Dillon, Jonas Siegenthaler, Nic Hague, Zach Whitecloud, OEL at less than 1.5, they might be filler but they are good filler.
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In a cap world defense is honestly more your coaching system. The Flames themselves saw that first hand where Sutter took a team that was defensively mediocre even while losing Giordano and Brodie and within about a season had massively improved all their metrics to the point where someone actually thought Erik Gudbranson was actually worth $4+ million a year. Too bad his personality in the modern era ages faster than milk left out on the counter, but for a while there they got massive over performance before the room turned on him.

The Oilers were overdue to find a good coach like that, they did it looks like.

They were 6th best in GA under Knoblaugh, in the playoffs they were about even with Florida for GA.

To do that with basically no roster addition to the back end is phenomenal coaching.

Same thing with Florida, lots of people shit on their D not that long ago on this board and lots of people shit on Maurice, turns out he's a better coach than a lot of people gave him credit for and he did a lot with not really that great of a d-corps. That's probably also why Florida will be fine this year. It's the system, it's not the players, all coach's like that need is one good pair, maybe a decent enough no.3, they'll make the rest of the 4/5/6 group work with their system.
 
Half Clapper said:
Dallas is better than Edmonton imo.
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I don't think they have the upper end talent offensively.

Oilers handled them pretty soundly beating them 3 games in a row to finish that series off, Dallas' much balleyhoed offense got completely shut down in those games too (only 1.75 goals/game in the last 3 games of the series ... good chance you're going to lose all three and they did exactly that).
 
Soundwave said:
In a cap world defense is honestly more your coaching system. The Flames themselves saw that first hand where Sutter took a team that was defensively mediocre even while losing Giordano and Brodie and within about a season had massively improved all their metrics to the point where someone actually thought Erik Gudbranson was actually worth $4+ million a year. Too bad his personality in the modern era ages faster than milk left out on the counter, but for a while there they got massive over performance before the room turned on him.

The Oilers were overdue to find a good coach like that, they did it looks like.

They were 6th best in GA under Knoblaugh, in the playoffs they were about even with Florida for GA.

To do that with basically no roster addition to the back end is phenomenal coaching.

Same thing with Florida, lots of people shit on their D not that long ago on this board and lots of people shit on Maurice, turns out he's a better coach than a lot of people gave him credit for and he did a lot with not really that great of a d-corps. That's probably also why Florida will be fine this year. It's the system, it's not the players, all coach's like that need is one good pair, maybe a decent enough no.3, they'll make the rest of the 4/5/6 group work with their system.
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I do agree with you that coaching has more to do with it than lots of fans think. I love Darryl but he didn't exactly reinvent the wheel. Lots of puck support, keep it simple stupid, if you don't have the puck go get it, cover the low to high, and skate your ass off to stay above the puck. He demands a very high level of commitment to those fundamentals and it's taxing for players to play that way.

Maybe the Oil have found that gem coach with Knoblauch, will admit that was the first period I've seen them competent and cohesive defensively since McLellan. But coaching is funny like that, one year you're the darling Jack Adams winner and the next you're out on your ass with the whole city spitting on your name.

Florida also have Bobrovsky backing them up. I don't think any amount of great coaching is turning Brown or Stecher into reliable 18 minute a night dmen. Was never a big Ceci guy but at least you knew what you were getting from him.
 
Bounces R Way said:
I do agree with you that coaching has more to do with it than lots of fans think. I love Darryl but he didn't exactly reinvent the wheel. Lots of puck support, keep it simple stupid, if you don't have the puck go get it, cover the low to high, and skate your ass off to stay above the puck. He demands a very high level of commitment to those fundamentals and it's taxing for players to play that way.

Maybe the Oil have found that gem coach with Knoblauch, will admit that was the first period I've seen them competent and cohesive defensively since McLellan. But coaching is funny like that, one year you're the darling Jack Adams winner and the next you're out on your ass with the whole city spitting on your name.

Florida also have Bobrovsky backing them up. I don't think any amount of great coaching is turning Brown or Stecher into reliable 18 minute a night dmen. Was never a big Ceci guy but at least you knew what you were getting from him.
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Great D is simple, what's hard about it is getting a coach that won't compromise on detail. Coaches who can deliver on that are worth their weight in gold.

Ceci was awful in the previous year's playoffs so was Desharnais ... the fact that they were better under Knob/Coffey is probably more a testament to the coaching staff, Desharnais was a nothing AHL player not that long ago at age 25 still stuck in the AHL. This guy would've been below a real NHL player like Troy Stetcher a couple of years ago on basically any NHL roster.

Also maybe this is just too radical of an idea, but perhaps Paul Coffey, one of the greatest defensemen to ever play actually maybe knows something about playing defense, lol. I know that doesn't always translate and everyone laughed at this hire but maybe just maybe he knows a few things especially the way the league is now where there is a premium on making plays and not just being a lug head D.
 
Soundwave said:
I don't think they have the upper end talent offensively.

Oilers handled them pretty soundly beating them 3 games in a row to finish that series off, Dallas' much balleyhoed offense got completely shut down in those games too (only 1.75 goals/game in the last 3 games of the series ... good chance you're going to lose all three and they did exactly that).
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Dallas will be better this year with Stankoven and Harley improving. On paper Dallas has the better team, but yes they did lose to the Oilers last year, the Oil also don't have the same team...
 
Half Clapper said:
Dallas will be better this year with Stankoven and Harley improving. On paper Dallas has the better team, but yes they did lose to the Oilers last year, the Oil also don't have the same team...
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Benn and Seguin are simultaneously declining though and Pavelski is gone (still scored 27 goals last year), the Oilers can also say they got better. Cody Ceci isn't that big of a difference maker and even if he was they could reacquire literally him or someone comparable/better at the deadline without much fuss.
 
Soundwave said:
Benn and Seguin are simultaneously declining though and Pavelski is gone (still scored 27 goals last year), the Oilers can also say they got better. Cody Ceci isn't that big of a difference maker and even if he was they could reacquire literally him or someone comparable/better at the deadline without much fuss.
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Well, I can agree with that. But Pavelski was invincible in the playoffs. Johnston will also be better and has superstar potential. They also have a guy named Mavrik Bourque coming up who has looked great in the AHL and is a first-round pick.

Edmonton does have better forwards than Dallas, but I think Dallas may have a better D-core, but thats a tossup imo.

Where Dallas has the x factor is in net with Otter.

Speaking of the Oilers D, I still think Ceci is a loss, and Broberg looked solid in the playoffs, so that's a loss too.
 
Half Clapper said:
Well, I can agree with that. But Pavelski was invincible in the playoffs. Johnston will also be better and has superstar potential. They also have a guy named Mavrik Bourque coming up who has looked great in the AHL and is a first-round pick.

Edmonton does have better forwards than Dallas, but I think Dallas may have a better D-core, but thats a tossup imo.

Where Dallas has the x factor is in net with Otter.

Speaking of the Oilers D, I still think Ceci is a loss, and Broberg looked solid in the playoffs, so that's a loss too.
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I mean in the Oilers Stars series

Stuart Skinner - .922 save percentage (series)
Jake Oettinger - .901 save percentage (series)

Not much of an X factor there.
 
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JPeeper said:
Contenders have depth, a defence, and good goaltending. Edmonton doesn't.
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I'm know I'm on the main board here, so I shouldn't even ask these kinds of questions, but... Are you saying that the Edmonton Oilers -- the team that was 1 win away from winning the Cup a few months ago -- are not "contenders" at the present moment?

Would you also argue that the Oilers were not contenders last year when they literally contended with the Cup champs for the Cup?

(I know I'm wasting my time, but I just want to understand the thought construction at work here.)
 
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Soundwave said:
I mean in the Oilers Stars series

Stuart Skinner - .922 save percentage (series)
Jake Oettinger - .901 save percentage (series)

Not much of an X factor there.
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You should know better than that not to base a goalie on one series pal. I think Dallas is a better team now and in the future than the Oilers. Sorry not sorry
 
Half Clapper said:
You should know better than that not to base a goalie on one series pal. I think Dallas is a better team now and in the future than the Oilers. Sorry not sorry
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Well that is why we have a thing called the playoffs, so that two teams can go head to head in a long series.

Oettenger hasn't done anything in this league to be given superstar treatment, Skinner destroyed him head to head in that series, sorry if you don't like the numbers but that is how it went down.
 
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Are they? In “The Hockey News” poll 26 out of 56 writers pick Dallas to win the Cup. Edmonton 13, Rangers 6, Florida 3, New Jersey 3, Colorado 2, Boston 1, Nashville 1, Vancouver 1
 
Luigi Lemieux said:
Probably the 01-02 Wings and 03-04 Avs in my memory. Already elite teams that really loaded up.
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Wings 01-02, adding Hasek to an already great team.

Avs 03-04, meh. League still had Detroit and a really San Jose side, Though noone really saw a Tampa - Calgary coming.
 
I mean as an Oiler fan, we have to realise we might have simply matched up better against Dallas than Colorado or Vegas.

Also not lost on us was the Tanev injury possibly changing the trajectory of that series.

I'm not sure we're better than last year. We gave up a lot of speed and gained marginal bump in top-6 scoring.
 
2009 wings were pretty hyped. Basically the 2008 team that just won + Hossa. Ironic how it turned out.
 
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