Speculation: Are Rantanen, Kaprisov and Marner establishing themselves as 14M players in the new cap world

[LOFIN]

Jack Hughes and Nico Hischier long-term at $15.25 looks better literally every single day, Jesus Christ.

What a stupid comparison.

 

[Trash Panda]

The Avs won the Cup with Rantanen making 11.3% of the cap. Obviously, 14% will make the job that much more difficult, but with the Avs injury history, they should still be able to make the numbers work without too much trouble, especially if Ritchie can contribute while still on his ELC.

The Av’s certainly made Mikko’s salary work, but it had a lot to do with having two of the very best players in the game at under 10 million.

Makar at 9 and MacKinnon at 6.3 the cup year was insane value at the two most important positions in hockey.

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

The Av’s certainly made Mikko’s salary work, but it had a lot to do with having two of the very best players in the game at under 10 million.

Makar at 9 and MacKinnon at 6.3 the cup year was insane value at the two most important positions in hockey.

Yes, that definitely helped. They also had Toews, arguably a top 10D, at $4.1m. And Kadri, a PPG+ 2C that season, at 4.5m. And Nuke at $2.5m. But all that goes to show that you can still build a very good team, despite spending a big chunk of the cap on a winger, assuming you can identify talent well and amass a group of players on contracts they can significantly outplay. Obviously, that's easier said than done, but it's clearly not impossible.

 

[LOFIN]

The Av’s certainly made Mikko’s salary work, but it had a lot to do with having two of the very best players in the game at under 10 million.

Makar at 9 and MacKinnon at 6.3 the cup year was insane value at the two most important positions in hockey.

Also Byram on ELC, Nuke, Kadri and Lehkonen playing for dirt cheap, Toews was cheaper than he's now etc... On the other hand, you had Erik Johnson making 6M while being a #6 Dman.

But that Avalanche team was ludicrously stacked, it really shouldn't be held to the standard of a cup winner. That was the most dominant SC winner in the salary cap era, and I don't think it's that close either. And they did it with the worst SC winning goaltending in 30 years.

 

[Trash Panda]

Yes, that definitely helped. They also had Toews, arguably a top 10D, at $4.1m. And Kadri, a PPG+ 2C that season, at 4.5m. And Nuke at $2.5m. But all that goes to show that you can still build a very good team, despite spending a big chunk of the cap on a winger, assuming you can identify talent well and amass a group of players on contracts they can significantly outplay. Obviously, that's easier said than done, but it's clearly not impossible.

Cost-controlled, homegrown talent is the secret sauce.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

I guess the question is, if my team traded Kaprizov for (let's say) Konecny and Sanheim ($15M cap hit total going forward), instead of signing Kaprizov for 8 x $15M, is Minnesota notably more of Cup contender just based off of that. I don't think it's a slam dunk.

I'm using these two Philly guys as an example because they added to $15M exactly and I really like Konecny's game so he's a guy I'd love to have on the team.

Cost-controlled, homegrown talent is the secret sauce.

Funny, because none of Toews, Kadri or Nichuskin were homegrown. Just some savvy moves that were made.

 

[TageGod]

I would actually eat my shorts to get Rantanen to Buffalo.

 

[Bruce Granville]

I would actually eat my shorts to get Rantanen to Buffalo.

He would too.

 

[Three On Zero]

They aren’t that far off from Draisaitl, 14 million is probably a fair ask for all 3. Marner is the riskiest but that usually doesn’t play much of a factor.

 

[majormajor]

Centers get that. Wingers do not.

I'd rather sign 2 players at $7M than one at $14M

It's about ROI. Their production will likely drop and get worse thag last 3-4 yrs of that contract

I think I'd rather have Rantanen over Troy Terry and Dylan Guenther (the two wingers who are most closely being paid 7M AAV) Both those guys are fantastic. But I'll take the guy that is 2nd in the league in scoring and a proven playoff performer.

Terry and Guenther signed as RFAs before the cap jumped up. If you want two $7m players in UFA next summer, when Rantanen will get his $14m, aim lower. Like league average lower.

 

[dirtydanglez]

they all could get it. rants and kap are the same but id value marner slightly less

 

[666]

Marner should be less.

None of them are in drai category.
He got 14.

rantanen scored way more goals over his career.

Kaprizov is another year right?

So I would say.

Drai 14
Rant 12.75-13.25
Marner 12.25-12.75

Drai and Rantanen rely on McDavid (32 of 55 points) and Mack (33 of 53 points) too much while
Kaprizov and Marner are the stars (Boldy 15 of 50 points ) and (Nylander 16 of 50 points)

 

[StlBigFly]

Drai and Rantanen rely on McDavid (32 of 55 points) and Mack (33 of 53 points) too much while
Kaprizov and Marner are the stars (Boldy 15 of 50 points ) and (Nylander 16 of 50 points)

Interesting that Drai and Rantanen are bigger dudes. Rantanen is a huge dude. I think you’d want a guy like this with your guy who likes space. There is probably a fair bit of extra output due to MacKinnon and he simultaneously being freaks, still, there’s no saying he wouldn’t get some of that same surplus with any other elite player.

 

[Brett44]

I would actually eat my shorts to get Rantanen to Buffalo.

you would have liked me to be GM in the 2024 draft. Peterka, Quinn or Kulich and 1st, would be my proposal

 

[La Bamba]

Drai and Rantanen rely on McDavid (32 of 55 points) and Mack (33 of 53 points) too much while
Kaprizov and Marner are the stars (Boldy 15 of 50 points ) and (Nylander 16 of 50 points)

how about their playoff stats?

 

[Ncit3]

Drai and Rantanen rely on McDavid (32 of 55 points) and Mack (33 of 53 points) too much while
Kaprizov and Marner are the stars (Boldy 15 of 50 points ) and (Nylander 16 of 50 points)

Last I checked when MacKinnon was out last year Rantanen lead this team from the front and generated offense for everyone else. He's a play driver. He just doesn't always have to be with Mack.

 

[BlueAzN]

No - Marners still a locker room and cancer and perennial playoff choker.
The rest, I can see at 13.5

 

[AKL]

Last I checked when MacKinnon was out last year Rantanen lead this team from the front and generated offense for everyone else. He's a play driver. He just doesn't always have to be with Mack.

Kaprizov does this every single game, every single season, I think is the point. He doesn't ever have a MacKinnon. No one is saying Rantanen is a product of MacKinnon who can't drive play on his own.

But when you look at their production the last 3 seasons and change, and Rantanen is scoring at a 106 point per 82 game pace, and Kaprizov is scoring at a 105 point per 82 game pace, it's worth remembering that Rantanen's most common linemate is a guy who's scored at a 128 point per 82 game pace, and Kaprizov's is a guy who's scored at a 78 point per 82 game pace.

 

[93gilmour93]

All three of these guys will make between 13-14 per year on a 7 or 8 year deal depending on if it's a resign. It's just the way things are moving in the world of NHL stars.

 

[Skolman]

Drai just signed for 14 mil per... If the Leafs give Marner close to 14 mil per that would be absolutely laughable

 

[Hallonbroder]

Why’s Marner mentioned in the same sentence as the others…?

 

[pb1300]

Kapri is the Wild! He gets what he wants, period.

 

[5cotland]

Kapri is the Wild! He gets what he wants, period.

He is going to UFA my friend

 

[Murzu]

Thanks to the eight year possibility by their current team, each one of em will sign for less than 13,5M annually with their current teams.

 

[AKL]

So MacKinnon signed in 2022-23 for 12.6M AAV, at a time when the cap was 82.5M. That's 15.27% of the cap.

15.27% of the estimate of next year's 92.5M cap is 14.1M.

However, the cap could rise even further than 92.5M, with some estimates between 95 and 97M. So if we call it 96M, 15.27% of that is 14.7M.

But Kaprizov doesn't need a new contract for another year still. If the cap keeps going up, it could reasonably be like 102M for the 2026-27 season when his new contract starts. 15.27% of 102M is almost 15.6M.

Maybe you can take a bit off because Kaprizov isn't MacKinnon and he isn't a center, but he'd also be a UFA, and that would inflate the AAV as well.

Craig Leipold also said no one's going to offer him more money than the Wild.