Are even strength points underrated in hockey ?

[PuckG]

Another interesting to note for this past season since Draisaitl seems to take unnecessary flack as a “merchant.”

Draisaitl’s 5v5 goal differential without McDavid: 58%

MacKinnon’s 5v5 goal differential without Rantanen: 55%

Kucherov’s 5v5 goal differential without Point: 56%

 

[Brookbank]

When analyzing players it is also important to not be brain damaged and recognize massive statistical outliers.

Lets take Hoglander for example,

He shot 21.82% at 5v5 last season.

His other seasons were, 11.21, 8.11, and 10.71. I wonder which one was a career year that won't happen again?

Elias Pettersson is 5th in shooting % among all players over the last ten years. Lets look at his 5v5 shooting % by season. 15.22, 19.35, 15.63, 14.68. 14.48, 12.28.

So last seasons Hoglander shot better than a top 5 shooter of this generation. What do you think the odds are he repeats this feat?

I'll take about 1%.

Lack of understanding of basic math is why so many Canucks fans got fooled into thinking their team was better than it actually was last season.

The Canucks had more "career years" the season before. There was 4 30 goal scoreres in 22/23. In 23/24 there was 3.

Next.

 

[Brookbank]

Have you read this forum? People love even strength points here.

At the end of the day though, they DO count for the same amount on the scoreboard. I think that if scoring on the powerplay was not a skill, every team would have roughly the same PP%

Yeah but if you told someone that doesn't know hockey and told them that some million dollar 2nd round pick winger has more ES goals than the 14 million dollar guy, they might fall off their chair.

 

[dgibb10]

A guy on a bad PP1 isn't contributing much more than a guy on a PP2 or not on a PP at all. Those kind of PP points are overrated, as well as PP points from guys who aren't really the engines of their PPs. Points that you get just by existing on a power play for a long time.

But the impact a Leon Draisaitl type can have in improving your PP is massive.

An elite PP weapon, and an effective power play is incredibly important to have if you want to compete.

Same with the PK. A lot of credit is given to guys for simply existing on a PK. And not enough is given to the actually elite penalty killers in hockey.

 

[dgibb10]

Yes ES points are more difficult to generate, which is why scoring is lower at ES.

But when it comes to winning hockey games, a point is a point. The guy who scores more points will help you win more games.

The caveat is that there is an argument for preferring ES scorers in the playoffs, when power plays are at such a premium. But a) the game is headed in a direction to have more PPs in the playoffs, and b) effective special teams are almost a prerequisite for being a Cup contender. Again, points are points and you certainly don’t want to take a guy who scores fewer points just because he scores them at ES.

Leon Draisaitl is a big part of one of the most dominant PPs we've seen in a long time. That is incredible value.

Guys getting points playing 3-4 minutes a night on PPs that click at 15-18%, not so much.

 

[Three On Zero]

A guy on a bad PP1 isn't contributing much more than a guy on a PP2 or not on a PP at all. Those kind of PP points are overrated, as well as PP points from guys who aren't really the engines of their PPs. Points that you get just by existing on a power play for a long time.

But the impact a Leon Draisaitl type can have in improving your PP is massive.

An elite PP weapon, and an effective power play is incredibly important to have if you want to compete.

Same with the PK. A lot of credit is given to guys for simply existing on a PK. And not enough is given to the actually elite penalty killers in hockey.

Good pkers often get forgotten about because they don’t put up points. Fans typically have a hyper fixation on points

 

[dgibb10]

Good pkers often get forgotten about because they don’t put up points. Fans typically have a hyper fixation on points

A guy contibuting to an 85% PK is honestly providing just as much value as a guy contributing to a 25% PP.

I think the problem is seperating coaching from individual talent/play and assigning credit/blame between different members of a PK.

There's really no great way to do that outside of on/off splits (which can be questionable and have a lot of noise involved), or watching hours upon hours of tape of guys across the league.

Look at how people freaked out about the Yakov Trenin contract when he's one of the best PKing forwards in hockey.

And a lot of times star forwards get far too much credit for PKing even if they kinda suck at it (I'm looking at you Mitch Marner)

 

[Coffey]

Let's see how long this stays open.
Clearly there is an agenda that even a blind squirrel can see.

Wonder if I can make a thread talking about "Are playoff goals underrated in hockey?"

Then post Hyman stats

And then Matthews

 

[God]

even strength points are useful when it comes to context-based analysis, such as looking at players in the bottom half of the lineup. i find it to be a useful metric when i'm looking at players like dakota joshua prior to last season.

but it's pretty useless for first line players unless you're doing comparisons amongst them. draisaitl faces top defensive matchups every night, while hoglander was probably against 2nd/3rd pair defensemen. and scoring on the powerplay is good.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

I think they are. Powerplays are political in nature. The game is stopped based on a judgment call and one player leaves the ice. 5 on 5 is hockey in its purest form. Who could argue that even strength points are not harder to get than PP points. And players who get them are not recognized enough.

https://x.com/i/web/status/1831489209888317574

Nothing says making a strong case for a theory like using the argument that Hoglander is better than Draisaitl.

 

[GeeoffBrown]

Yeah but if you told someone that doesn't know hockey and told them that some million dollar 2nd round pick winger has more ES goals than the 14 million dollar guy, they might fall off their chair.

it's an interesting fact, that I assume does not hold up if you increase the sample size. Assuming Hoglander continues to produce at this level, it doesn't really matter where he picked, his contract is going to get a lot bigger too!

 

[Three On Zero]

And a lot of times star forwards get far too much credit for PKing even if they kinda suck at it (I'm looking at you Mitch Marner)

This goes for all facets of hockey, teammates can help cover up your shortcomings.

It would be interesting to break down the high 5on5 goal scorers and see what kind of quality of competition they are playing against.

 

[Bear of Bad News]

Let's see how long this stays open.

To clear something up that apparently needs to be cleared up for your benefit: you don't need to worry about this. Officially, you don't need to worry about this.

If you start a thread out of spite, however...remember that if you confess on "intent" it's pretty clear when someone's trolling.

 

[Uncle Scrooge]

For sure. But if you’re going to compare stats, there needs to be a lot of context.

Like, I’ll take a PPG in a tough game against a very good team over an ES goal against the worst team in the League in a 4-0 game. Heck, I’ll even take an assist.

 

[Three On Zero]

Nothing says making a strong case for a theory like using the argument that Hoglander is better than Draisaitl.

It could be a rather interesting topic to discuss, the attached tweet just pulls away and makes the topic into something it isn’t.

 

[Coffey]

it's pretty clear when someone's trolling.

I don't know about that, Bear.
Lot of people play stupid when their intentions are clear.

That's why message history exists and you can always pull up someones existing bias.

But that's all for me here, I'll let it be.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

It could be a rather interesting topic to discuss, the attached tweet just pulls away and makes the topic into something it isn’t.

But that's the problem. If someone wants an interesting discussion, they shouldn't use a tweet/example where it's clearly NOT in favor of what they're arguing. In no way, shape or form is Hoglander a better player/better producer than Draisaitl. So the OP is already harming his own discussion by using that example to prove his point.

 

[Three On Zero]

But that's the problem. If someone wants an interesting discussion, they shouldn't use a tweet/example where it's clearly NOT in favor of what they're arguing. In no way, shape or form is Hoglander a better player/better producer than Draisaitl. So the OP is already harming his own discussion by using that example to prove his point.

I agree to some degree, it’s was a poor tweet to use but at least they didn’t reference it in the post trying to say Hoglander was a better player. To me the tweet is rather irrelevant and just a needless addition

 

[Coffey]

To me the tweet is rather irrelevant and just a needless addition

(Sorry @Bear of Bad News, I couldn't stay out.)

Exactly TOZ.
Almost like there was... A reason why it was posted in this thread.

 

[Three On Zero]

(Sorry @Bear of Bad News, I couldn't stay out.)

Exactly TOZ.
Almost like there was... A reason why it was posted in this thread.

Maybe im naive but I didn’t even think of that until people started getting defensive and trying to spew stats in a thread that had really nothing to do with what they were trying to counter argue. Hoglander had a good season but you’d need to be a non hockey fan stat watcher specifically looking for even strength goals to think he was even in the discussion of being talked about with Draisaitl.

 

[PuckG]

Maybe im naive but I didn’t even think of that until people started getting defensive and trying to spew stats in a thread that had really nothing to do with what they were trying to counter argue. Hoglander had a good season but you’d need to be a non hockey fan stat watcher specifically looking for even strength goals to think he was even in the discussion of being talked about with Draisaitl.

The post brings up Draisaitl being a McDavid merchant and even strength goals/production and you are utterly shocked that statistics refuting that is presented?

 

[666]

Here's some interesting stats.
Last three regular seasons:

5v5

Player

GP

TOI

TOI/GP

G

A

P

Goals/60

Total Assists/60

First Assists/60

Second Assists/60

Total Points/60

Auston Matthews

228​

3562.4​

15.6​

102​

77​

179​

1.72​

1.30​

0.88​

0.42​

3.01​

Connor McDavid

238​

3869.4​

16.3​

73​

116​

189​

1.13​

1.80​

1.18​

0.62​

2.93​

Leon Draisaitl

241​

3811.2​

15.8​

58​

102​

160​

0.91​

1.61​

1.10​

0.50​

2.52​

PP

Auston Matthews

228​

771.5​

3.4​

47​

39​

86​

3.66​

3.03​

1.56​

1.48​

6.69​

Connor McDavid

238​

879.0​

3.7​

38​

121​

159​

2.59​

8.26​

4.98​

3.28​

10.85​

Leon Draisaitl

241​

899.1​

3.7​

77​

65​

142​

5.14​

4.34​

2.40​

1.94​

9.48​

Top players play about 4.5 times more minutes 5v5 than on the PP.
That Edm power play is pretty impressive.

 

[kcunac]

I think this board overrates even strength goals but underrated PP goals.

As an example, I feel like if my team had a better PP we would’ve beaten the Oilers in the playoffs, who had an incredibly good PP.

 

[Vikingstad]

Shame that you're ignoring the fact that Draisiatl had 47 even strength assists, you know, more than Hoglander's total points last season.

And thats ignoring the 21G and 18A (again more than Hoglander's point totals) he had solely on the powerplay. Shame Vancouver couldn't get production like that on their PP in the postseason, maybe they would have gone further.

Powerplays are part of the game, same for every team in the league. It's asinine that people downplay it for their own agenda.

 

[Coffey]

Hoglander had a good season but you’d need to be a non hockey fan stat watcher specifically looking for even strength goals to think he was even in the discussion of being talked about with Draisaitl.

That's why I said this earlier, the tweet creator is an obvious troll.

And why I said that the OP of this thread knew what he was doing when he made the thread, it was going to create discourse.

Thread would have been fine without the tweet... But less fun.