Speculation: Another year of this Bluc **** (The 2024 season thread)

[King'sPawn]

I'm just cautiously optimistic of the Kings' success. I think we all expected them to make the playoffs. It's what they do in the first round.

 

[johnjm22]

People have been saying for the previous two years why things would be different than the previous years, from the emergence of younger players, to Todd being fired, the Oilers getting worse etc.

I don't think very many people were saying that. Last year especially it felt like almost everyone around here expected us to lose.

The Oilers ARE more vulnerable this year. Doesn't mean LA will win, but they have a much better chance than previous years.

Edmonton's current goaltending tandem is Calvin Pickard and Olivier Rodrigue, BTW.

 

[Herby]

Pretty sure I've said it before, but you will take a Trevor Lewis career out of Turcotte at this point and feel good that you at least have a solid 4th line player. Turcotte might top Lewis's best season in points, but I feel like scoring is up v. when Lewis was Turcotte's age.

Glad to have Trevor Lewis during the glory days of the Kings. Good soldier and made numerous big plays in the playoffs. Was he a great draft pick where he was taken? No, but it all worked out in the end. Turcotte is the same thing. Hopefully he is a key role player on a championship Kings team, but that doesn't mean that the spot he was drafted at is justified.

It's easier to overcome Lewis and Hickey type picks when you inherited two Hall of Fame players, drafted a third one and also drafted a bunch of really good ones right around them. Thomas Hickey would have been a way bigger issue if Dave Taylor had drafted Martin Hanzal or Dean Lombardi had drafted Zach Bogosian (like many of our Armenian brethren wanted ).Just like the Hawks were able to overcome Cam Barker, Kyle Beech and Jack Skille because they drafted Kane, Toews, Seabrook and Keith.

In the summer of 2009 when the Kings ended the accumulation stage and brought in Ryan Smyth they had on the NHL roster

Kopitar - 22
Doughty - 19
Quick - 22
Brown - 24
Johnson - 22
Simmonds - 21
Moller 20

And they had just drafted another player in the Top 5.


I think Lombardi ran well with everything that happened with Richards/Carter and the Flyers and that accelerated the final stages of construction and probably ended up a couple of years ahead of schedule (as far as winning cups). But he did end the rebuild and move onto the "get the culture veterans" stage at exactly the right time. Where I think it's very obvious that this current rebuild desperately needed to add at least another couple of high end top of the board type picks before they were ready to get guys like Danault and Gabrikov, and yes the Turcotte pick did have a lot to do with that, and no that doesn't mean he's a total bust like certain ppl will claim I'm saying, but clearly when you are picking #5 overall and you only have three top 10 picks in a rebuild you really can't afford to have that pick be a sacrifice fly.

We will never know if DL would have acted differently if he didn't have those assets, but I think he was more of a builder than Blake who is more reactive, and if I had to guess, if the Kings didn't end up with Doughty they would have been accumulating for a couple of more years until they had the young pieces in place where Dean started adding veterans.

I think Blake's plan around Nov/Dec 2018, and it was a gamble, but not completely unrealistic, was to be bad in 2019, 2020 and 2021, be picking near the top of the draft and hope to hit homeruns with guys that would become impactful players (which you should be hoping for with picks that high) quickly enough where they could team with 11&8 for another 5-6 years. And the plan could very easily have worked had some things gone differently, if the Kings win the lottery in 2019 and draft Jack Hughes, or draft Boldy/Caufield this team very well may have enough offense and be better on the PP where they could be legit contenders right now, so that is why the Turcotte pick is relevant to the discussion (as much as it angers you know who). But it was a very narrow path, with very little room for error.

I think the summer of 2021 was his target date to end his mini-rebuild, but he had to have known when that time came, even then, that those picks weren't going to be Kopitar or Doughty type franchise picks, and then you were at the crossroads of what to do. I believe the right move was to continue accumulating until you found those types, but you have to be realistic and realize that it also would have meant likely saying goodbye to Doughty and possibly Kopitar too. But the end-goal should be winning SC's, not appeasing veteran players (even Mount Rushmore ones) with blackhole playoff appearances. And yes it's difficult to say goodbye to those types, but it's not impossible, Patrick Kane, Steve Stamkos, Jonathan Toews, Duncan Keith etc.

 

[GoldenBearHockey]

I know what he is saying, which is why I'm responding to it. This started with Axl bemoaning the fact someone would complain about his draft position and just look at the positives of the Turcotte experience so far. Sorry, but it is a failure of a draft pick and there is nothing wrong with saying something like "Love that he has stayed mostly healthy this season and looks like he will be a useful player, but I wish they drafted someone else at 5OA because his output and most likely future in this league is not that of a 5OA player."

That is not what I'm saying, but I will say it now because, again, this is the apologist argument. They are paid to be the best at what they do, so they should know. Just because another team would have also drafted him that high, doesn't mean there is no blame to be applied. Like, if the f***ing Buffalo Sabres would have done it as well, should that mean it is okay? You want a GM that doesn't just do whatever everyone else would do. If that is what you have, what makes him anything special?

There are no guarantees, but saying it is a complete crap shoot means they should just get rid of amateur scouting departments because none of it matters.

Got it, so 32 other teams would draft him in the top 10, but because he didn't pan out, there's some kind of "blame" to be had.....so, if that's the case, then there's blame to be had when they draft well in the 4th, round etc? In the end, it all evens out, and draft position only matters for your entry level 1st contract.

 

[funky]

Yup. It's important to acknowledge there are variables that come in play. Some can't be controlled by the player (e.g. genetic issues affecting how much he grows, unforeseen health risks, external issues with team dynamics). Some can't be controlled by the team (player has immaturity issues, player doesn't exercise along with team plans). And some that can't be attributed to anybody (i.e.the player just isn't good enough at the NHL level no matter how hard he tries). But even then, the onus is on the team to identify risk factors that contribute to this.

Just because there are variables doesn't mean it's a crap shoot.

On another note, Kenny Connors signed his ELC but has a broken foot:

BREAKING NEWS: LA Kings and Connors Agree to Entry-Level Contract

mayorsmanor.com

Kirill Kirsanov's team was also swept in the first round, so I'm curious if and when he'll sign.

Maybe we can have a press conference for a triple Russian signing.

Gav- Kuzmenko and Kirsanov.

 

[King'sPawn]

Got it, so 32 other teams would draft him in the top 10, but because he didn't pan out, there's some kind of "blame" to be had.....so, if that's the case, then there's blame to be had when they draft well in the 4th, round etc? In the end, it all evens out, and draft position only matters for your entry level 1st contract.

You're assuming because independent scouting services had him as a consensus top 5/top 10 that 32 other teams have him ranked the same way. That's just not what happens.

It's why players like Vilardi, or even Kopitar, fall to 11. Teams spend years before a draft to follow prospects, their growth, evaluate the analytics they've set up, interviewing them, etc before compiling a list of about 50-70 players they plan to draft (teams don't make a list of the top 200 players).

That's why a player like Hickey goes 4th overall when pretty much no independent scouting service had him as a first rounder. But Boston was very high on him, too, and they would have taken him at 8th. Or it's why the Kings took Wayne Simmonds despite CSS not ranking him at all among NA skaters.

So, with that said - yes, teams absolutely should accept blame when their high picks don't work out. There's years of work put into these lists. Conversely, they absolutely deserve praise for late round picks, like Jordan Spence, Mikey Anderson, etc.

I think other circumstances affected Turcotte, so I won't go far as to say it was a bad pick. But we're hand-waiving a lot of pertinent details to defend any pick as "everyone else would have done the same thing." It's objectively untrue.

 

[KingsHockey24]

I'll f*** Rob Blake if it means signing Kuzmenko to a 10 year extension.

 

[Schmooley]

I'm just cautiously optimistic of the Kings' success. I think we all expected them to make the playoffs. It's what they do in the first round.

Yea I like this years roster especially if Jeannot and Turcotte are back by the playoffs. Its just hard to be confident against Mcdavid. He was nearly too much to contain for a stacked USA team in the 4 nations and ultimately was the gamebreaker. A lot of things have to go right for the Kings in the series to offset the damage hell do especially on the powerplay.

 

[BaileyFan]

NHL Attendance Report 2024-25 - Sound Of Hockey

With 20% of the NHL season now complete, we thought it would be a good time to check in on the attendance across the league.

soundofhockey.com

The article I pulled from speculates:

Attendance was bad pre-fires too so I’m not buying that. I think it’s as simple as season tickets taking a hit after last year’s BLuc experience and the casuals not being interested in seeing a team that, up until a month ago, played a boring style and barely scored. Especially with the other LA teams making noise in their leagues.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

I don't think very many people were saying that. Last year especially it felt like almost everyone around here expected us to lose.

The Oilers ARE more vulnerable this year. Doesn't mean LA will win, but they have a much better chance than previous years.

Edmonton's current goaltending tandem is Calvin Pickard and Olivier Rodrigue, BTW.

Knowing this team we'd have better odds vs. Patrick Roy backing up Dominik Hasek

 

[Herby]

Got it, so 32 other teams would draft him in the top 10, but because he didn't pan out, there's some kind of "blame" to be had.....so, if that's the case, then there's blame to be had when they draft well in the 4th, round etc? In the end, it all evens out, and draft position only matters for your entry level 1st contract.

Almost every bad pick in the history of professional sports is from a player being picked where he was projected by the experts. Guys like Thomas Hickey and Cleinin Ferrell are rare cases. If you are not going to criticize managers/scouts etc. for choosing the wrong player in a spot he was projected to go in by magazines, that is fine, but then you also shouldn't praise them for choosing the right player, if he was projected to go there by the magazines.

Turcotte seems to be just a case of the consensus being wrong (particularly his offensive upside), you can see from the Habs behind the scenes videos on YT from the 2019 draft that Marc Bergevin expected him to go to Chicago at #3, so obviously he was highly thought of by other NHL GM's. Drafting from the USHL is challenging, even for NTDP players because the jump to college is a huge filter, and had it been like it used to be and players are drafted at 19 after one year of college he would have gone at the end of the 1st round. I am less critical of the pick and more critical of the subsequent terrible development and deployment decisions with the player, and of not adjusting the timeline of the organizational rebuild to realize that the Jonathan Toews/Mike Richards you expected from your #5OA pick was actually more of an Andrew Copp/Trevor Moore depth piece, that is where Blake deserves the most blame in how the pick went down, the pick itself was mostly bad luck.

 

[Herby]

I'm just cautiously optimistic of the Kings' success. I think we all expected them to make the playoffs. It's what they do in the first round.

What if the Kings win, and then lose in say 5 games to Vegas. Is that successful?

On one hand you finally get past the Oilers, but then you ask, is this any different than what Seattle did a couple years ago, or what Columbus did a few years ago, or countless other examples? It's one thing to be a young team doing this, say a Montreal or Ottawa and you say, let's build on this, but it's tough to build on things when so many of your best players are on the back-nine.

For a team that has traded two first round picks, two former 1st round picks and one of the best young defenseman in the league for older win-now players should the bar be higher?

1st round would be an epic failure, 2nd round would be meh (probably depending on how competitive the series would be), conf finals and beyond would be considered successful and a good return on the futures they gave up.

 

[King'sPawn]

What if the Kings win, and then lose in say 5 games to Vegas. Is that successful?

On one hand you finally get past the Oilers, but then you ask, is this any different than what Seattle did a couple years ago, or what Columbus did a few years ago, or countless other examples? It's one thing to be a young team doing this, say a Montreal or Ottawa and you say, let's build on this, but it's tough to build on things when so many of your best players are on the back-nine.

For a team that has traded two first round picks, two former 1st round picks and one of the best young defenseman in the league for older win-now players should the bar be higher?

1st round would be an epic failure, 2nd round would be meh (probably depending on how competitive the series would be), conf finals and beyond would be considered successful and a good return on the futures they gave up.

This pretty much summarizes my feelings. With the prices paid, four straight first round exits would feel like an abject failure. A second round ousting would still suck, considering the buildup to get this far, but I'd also be lying if I didn't admit it still surpassed my expectations from last offseason.

 

[Sol]

I will consider this season a massive success if they beat the Oilers. I will consider an absolute failure if they don’t. I’m completely fine with slaying the devil at the door for the last four years. That’s progress to me.

 

[Statto]

Danault is currently in year 4 of a 6 year deal.

Next year will be year 5.

Thanks. I happily stand corrected. It’s probably a reasonable time to move him in terms of value and as II say though, my thoughts are not a criticism of Danault.

 

[Statto]

It's absolutley a crap shoot for a large majority of the picks... there is no guarantee even if a player is drafted #1.

EVERYONE had Alex Lafreniere as the next Sidney Crosby. How did that turn out?

I’m in the everyone group and I had Byfield and Stutzle at 1 and 2. I wasn’t the only one.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

What if the Kings win, and then lose in say 5 games to Vegas. Is that successful?

On one hand you finally get past the Oilers, but then you ask, is this any different than what Seattle did a couple years ago, or what Columbus did a few years ago, or countless other examples? It's one thing to be a young team doing this, say a Montreal or Ottawa and you say, let's build on this, but it's tough to build on things when so many of your best players are on the back-nine.

For a team that has traded two first round picks, two former 1st round picks and one of the best young defenseman in the league for older win-now players should the bar be higher?

1st round would be an epic failure, 2nd round would be meh (probably depending on how competitive the series would be), conf finals and beyond would be considered successful and a good return on the futures they gave up.

Especially in the pacific bracket

If they were playing Colorado or Dallas maybe different story

But Edmonton and Vegas…depends on what happens in that 2nd round but for a team that really has needed a first round win it’s tough to hang a banner after going yay we finally passed the first round after 11 years when the team is on the way down, not up.

 

[bland]

Especially in the pacific bracket

If they were playing Colorado or Dallas maybe different story

But Edmonton and Vegas…depends on what happens in that 2nd round but for a team that really has needed a first round win it’s tough to hang a banner after going yay we finally passed the first round after 11 years when the team is on the way down, not up.

How are they on the "way down"? Why would they "hang a banner"?

In a year or two most here are going to look back at 2024-25 as the change in fortunes. There are do many positives this year that frankly it's astonishing why so many are choosing not to see them.

 

[Trash Panda]

How are they on the "way down"? Why would they "hang a banner"?

In a year or two most here are going to look back at 2024-25 as the change in fortunes. There are do many positives this year that frankly it's astonishing why so many are choosing not to see them.

Probably has something to do with the slow-death of our league dominating #1 defensemen without a replacement in sight, and watching Kopitar finally fizzle out.

Byfield is more than likely going to develop to fill Kopitar’s shoes, and that is a much needed glimmer of hope. The passing of the torch is happening there, but it sure would be nice if we had an option for center behind him a bit younger, but I’m still holding out hope for Turcotte to be one of those guys.

A replacement for Drew is a concern, and so far Clarke hasn’t shown he can fill those shoes. It’s going to be an uncomfortable transition going from a Drew Doughty into a defense by committee. Really need one of Clarke or Spence to grab a gear for that transition to work.

Lots to be positive about, and a lot of question marks to go along with it, IMO.

 

[tigermask48]

How are they on the "way down"? Why would they "hang a banner"?

In a year or two most here are going to look back at 2024-25 as the change in fortunes. There are do many positives this year that frankly it's astonishing why so many are choosing not to see them.

The number 1 C, D, and G are all on the wrong side of 30 with no young players currently ready to step into those roles. Those 3 aren't getting younger.

So yes this team is far more likely to experience growing pains or setbacks as those 3 get older or younger players grow into those roles.

 

[BigKing]

It's easier to overcome Lewis and Hickey type picks when you inherited two Hall of Fame players, drafted a third one and also drafted a bunch of really good ones right around them. Thomas Hickey would have been a way bigger issue if Dave Taylor had drafted Martin Hanzal or Dean Lombardi had drafted Zach Bogosian (like many of our Armenian brethren wanted ).Just like the Hawks were able to overcome Cam Barker, Kyle Beech and Jack Skille because they drafted Kane, Toews, Seabrook and Keith.

In the summer of 2009 when the Kings ended the accumulation stage and brought in Ryan Smyth they had on the NHL roster

Kopitar - 22
Doughty - 19
Quick - 22
Brown - 24
Johnson - 22
Simmonds - 21
Moller 20

And they had just drafted another player in the Top 5.


I think Lombardi ran well with everything that happened with Richards/Carter and the Flyers and that accelerated the final stages of construction and probably ended up a couple of years ahead of schedule (as far as winning cups). But he did end the rebuild and move onto the "get the culture veterans" stage at exactly the right time. Where I think it's very obvious that this current rebuild desperately needed to add at least another couple of high end top of the board type picks before they were ready to get guys like Danault and Gabrikov, and yes the Turcotte pick did have a lot to do with that, and no that doesn't mean he's a total bust like certain ppl will claim I'm saying, but clearly when you are picking #5 overall and you only have three top 10 picks in a rebuild you really can't afford to have that pick be a sacrifice fly.

We will never know if DL would have acted differently if he didn't have those assets, but I think he was more of a builder than Blake who is more reactive, and if I had to guess, if the Kings didn't end up with Doughty they would have been accumulating for a couple of more years until they had the young pieces in place where Dean started adding veterans.

I think Blake's plan around Nov/Dec 2018, and it was a gamble, but not completely unrealistic, was to be bad in 2019, 2020 and 2021, be picking near the top of the draft and hope to hit homeruns with guys that would become impactful players (which you should be hoping for with picks that high) quickly enough where they could team with 11&8 for another 5-6 years. And the plan could very easily have worked had some things gone differently, if the Kings win the lottery in 2019 and draft Jack Hughes, or draft Boldy/Caufield this team very well may have enough offense and be better on the PP where they could be legit contenders right now, so that is why the Turcotte pick is relevant to the discussion (as much as it angers you know who). But it was a very narrow path, with very little room for error.

I think the summer of 2021 was his target date to end his mini-rebuild, but he had to have known when that time came, even then, that those picks weren't going to be Kopitar or Doughty type franchise picks, and then you were at the crossroads of what to do. I believe the right move was to continue accumulating until you found those types, but you have to be realistic and realize that it also would have meant likely saying goodbye to Doughty and possibly Kopitar too. But the end-goal should be winning SC's, not appeasing veteran players (even Mount Rushmore ones) with blackhole playoff appearances. And yes it's difficult to say goodbye to those types, but it's not impossible, Patrick Kane, Steve Stamkos, Jonathan Toews, Duncan Keith etc.

They lost the lottery in 2019 but "won" in 2020. Pretty sure Blake is quoted as saying that getting Byfield "accelerated the rebuild."

This is not a critique of Byfield, but I 100% believe that they thought he would be doing what he is doing now at least two seasons ago. That is on Management.

 

[tigermask48]

They lost the lottery in 2019 but "won" in 2020. Pretty sure Blake is quoted as saying that getting Byfield "accelerated the rebuild."

This is not a critique of Byfield, but I 100% believe that they thought he would be doing what he is doing now at least two seasons ago. That is on Management.

They've been on record as of last season saying Byfield was a project and wouldn't reach his ceiling until he was 25... So someone is lying.

 

[Schrute farms]

The number 1 C, D, and G are all on the wrong side of 30 with no young players currently ready to step into those roles. Those 3 aren't getting younger.

So yes this team is far more likely to experience growing pains or setbacks as those 3 get older or younger players grow into those roles.

One of the weakest, thinnest prospect systems in all of NHL. Obviously that's not the end all -- guys can bust or become something way more than expected (Laf, etc). Still, it's not good.

 

[Herby]

They lost the lottery in 2019 but "won" in 2020. Pretty sure Blake is quoted as saying that getting Byfield "accelerated the rebuild."

This is not a critique of Byfield, but I 100% believe that they thought he would be doing what he is doing now at least two seasons ago. That is on Management.

Yeah the comments about accelerating the rebuild while then having his college drinking buddy go on Pravda and tell them that they knew all along he wasn't going to be impactful for 4-5 years was truly something else. But this is par for the course for these guys, remember the whole "I was told the expectation was Turcotte was going to be a good 3rd line center" that Jim Fox mentioned in his interview with Jesse? I wonder where Fox heard that from.

No team is using a #2 overall pick on a 4-5 year project, and certainly not one that a mere months later ended their rebuild and claimed to be contenders. And no team is drafting someone #5 overall with the expectation they are going to be a 3C.

They've been on record as of last season saying Byfield was a project and wouldn't reach his ceiling until he was 25... So someone is lying.

It's one of two things.

1. They are either lying to cover for their poor evaluation on how long it would take for him to develop.
2. They are so utterly incompetent they drafted what would be one of, if not the biggest project ever with a #2 overall pick while simultaneously trying to win with older veterans on the wrong side of 30.

We know the question will never be asked of any of them, but I wonder what their response would be if you asked him this question.

"Why would you draft a five year project with a #2 overall pick if the organization was trying to win with 11&8?"

 

[bland]

The number 1 C, D, and G are all on the wrong side of 30 with no young players currently ready to step into those roles. Those 3 aren't getting younger.

So yes this team is far more likely to experience growing pains or setbacks as those 3 get older or younger players grow into those roles.

Yes, but this is NOT a negative, its a positive.

The elder statesmen are on their way out regardless of whether the kids are ready, and the thing the Eeyores around here aren't noticing is that the transition IS happening. It was always going to hurt, but while the expenditures to prolong the vets cost the Kings a couple of quality players and higher picks, there has been a noticeable change in philosophy since the end of last summer.

Open your eyes, guys. This nonsense about the 11/7, Lewis, Clarke sitting out, it just means nothing. It's had no negative impact at all. It's like complaining about the parsley at a restaurant. Totally insignificant issues.

You cannot guarantee success, there is no ready-made route to the Cup. But, there are choices that can guarantee failure. Blake and Co have spent 7 years making the wrong choices that have stripped any chance for success for the franchise... until this past July.

There has been a 180° philosophy change here, and what may have been logical to us all along may very well be ironical to them - but sound, reasonable decisions have been steadily made and progress has FINALLY started.

I beg you guys, stop concentrating on 4th liners playing 9 minutes a night and start paying closer attention to WHY decisions are made. Successful organizations start with sound, consistent, logical decisions that are true to their intentions.

There hasn't been a short cut taken since they acquired Dubois. Yes, that was an utter failure, but instead of doubling and tripling down on that mistake, Blake shrewdly got out from under it without the lengthy cost of a buyout (that a lot of us, myself included, were willing to endure just to get him the hell out).

It was imperative that Byfield was moved back to center ASAP, and they did so. It was vital that they integrated kids into higher roles even with an expected drop in the standings. They did so, but with far better results than we could have expected.

The bandaids to smooth over that transition were finally changed from overpaying up top to solidifying actual areas of weakness.

That kept all their top picks and prospects at the deadline and made a shrewd choice to compliment their team instead of change it in Kuzmenko.

An antiquated, boring, laughing stock of a system was abandoned in favor of an aggressive attack despite years of drafting and coaching and planning for the 1-3-1.

Every decision made this year was the right one at the right time. It is a dramatic change from the hard-wired failures that sucked the life out of the franchise and us fans.

Look at it, it's there. Widen your view of the franchise, understand where it is in the inevitable transition so long delayed, and the difference is unavoidable. There is a path to success being built right in front of you. This is a team on a major upswing now, and the on-ice results WILL follow.