Speculation: Another year of this Bluc **** (The 2024-25 season thread)

[kingsfan28]

Petersen got waived by the Flyers. Honestly Blake is such a dumb ass lol. Petersen and PLD. He should be sending Beckerman flowers every day for keeping him in the organization. What a joke Gm

Giving up 4 goals on 12 shots will do that. Rob thought he was the smartest guy in the room giving him that deal [ DL, cough cough]. 3 years x 2-3 and it's workable, but the extra 2 mil ...oof. At least he got out of it, which ain't saying much.

 

[Ziggy Stardust]

Dan Cloutier laughs at the Cal Petersen contract.

 

[CarlSneep]

So do we all assume Studnicka, Lee & Jones are getting waived? Or are the Kings going to galaxy brain themselves into sending Turcotte down?

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

So do we all assume Studnicka, Lee & Jones are getting waived? Or are the Kings going to galaxy brain themselves into sending Turcotte down?

 

[Statto]

So do we all assume Studnicka, Lee & Jones are getting waived? Or are the Kings going to galaxy brain themselves into sending Turcotte down?

Lee is waiver exempt.

Based on performance so far Fagemo is like waived whilst Lee and Studnicka stay up. I expect Lee goes down though as playing is the best thing for him. Fagemo is the 14th forward if he stays up.

Assuming we go with 7 D Englund is waived IMO. Essentially depending on if they go 13/8 or 14/7 will determine if Englund or Fagemo are waived. Jones and Studnicka have so far earned spots.

 

[Schrute farms]

I have a hard time believing any of Jones, Studnicka, Fagemo and Englund get picked up by a team if waived. Maybe a team desperate for D/size due to TC injuries would pick up Englund for a bit. Possibly a bad team with no talent tries Fagemo for a bit. I think not though.
I'll likely be wrong.

 

[Sol]

Lee>>>>>>>Lewis

Sucks that Lee might not make the line up over some bum like Lewis.

I was really impressed by Lee’s ability to be open in the offensive zone. I know he didn’t really produce but he was making the most of his chances and finding the soft spot of the ice.

I had no idea he read the game offensively that well. Lewis wouldn’t ever be dangerous even if you lit him up on fire with spikes from head to toe.

 

[Omni Owl]

I love Lewis and all he's done for the team but its definitely time for some young blood to replace him. Thomas should definitely be on the starting roster this year.

 

[Statto]

Lee>>>>>>>Lewis

Sucks that Lee might not make the line up over some bum like Lewis.

I was really impressed by Lee’s ability to be open in the offensive zone. I know he didn’t really produce but he was making the most of his chances and finding the soft spot of the ice.

I had no idea he read the game offensively that well. Lewis wouldn’t ever be dangerous even if you lit him up on fire with spikes from head to toe.

I’m not excited by Lewis being on the team by any means BUT he’s not there to be dangerous. He has a role to be defensively responsible (+PK) and to mentor the young guys alongside him, presumably Thomas and Turcotte. Hopefully he sits some games along the way to give 13/14 some looks.

 

[Sol]

I’m not excited by Lewis being on the team by any means BUT he’s not there to be dangerous. He has a role to be defensively responsible (+PK) and to mentor the young guys alongside him, presumably Thomas and Turcotte. Hopefully he sits some games along the way to give 13/14 some looks.

I really think Lewis’ pk ability is grossly overblown. I hate to bring this up but if Kings again play the oilers then that’s just wasted roster spot.

Lewis was destroyed by the oilers consistently. It’s just limited returns at this point. Would I have someone who might be a bit worse at PK while at least having some value with the puck? Yeah. Kings identity shouldn’t be losing to the oilers.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Lewis has been objectively terrible on the PK for the last two years and should not be an 82 game player even if he's fully healthy.

40-50 games MAX. I have no beef with that. But this org treats 40 years olds like 20 years olds until they turn into 60 year olds for the playoffs.

 

[Statto]

I have a hard time believing any of Jones, Studnicka, Fagemo and Englund get picked up by a team if waived. Maybe a team desperate for D/size due to TC injuries would pick up Englund for a bit. Possibly a bad team with no talent tries Fagemo for a bit. I think not though.
I'll likely be wrong.

Jones played 25 regular season and 3 PO last season and 73 games the year before. On a non play-off team he can do a job if anyone has injury issues. Studnicka doesn’t quite have the same resume but would be a solid 13th forward to plug in when needed, that said I doubt anyone claims him as most teams have someone with that profile and/or prospects to do a job. Both are nice pieces to sit in the press box most nights rather than have prospects do that job.

Englund and Fagemo I think are unlikely to get picked up. As you said, maybe Englund.

I really think Lewis’ pk ability is grossly overblown. I hate to bring this up but if Kings again play the oilers then that’s just wasted roster spot.

Lewis was destroyed by the oilers consistently. It’s just limited returns at this point. Would I have someone who might be a bit worse at PK while at least having some value with the puck? Yeah. Kings identity shouldn’t be losing to the oilers.

I don’t disagree, just pointing out why he is there. Hopefully Kaliyev comes back and pushes him out, maybe Lee does, who knows. I think his spot shouldn’t be guaranteed, that’s for sure.

 

[Sol]

Jones played 25 regular season and 3 PO last season and 73 games the year before. On a non play-off team he can do a job if anyone has injury issues. Studnicka doesn’t quite have the same resume but would be a solid 13th forward to plug in when needed, that said I doubt anyone claims him as most teams have someone with that profile and/or prospects to do a job. Both are nice pieces to sit in the press box most nights rather than have prospects do that job.

Englund and Fagemo I think are unlikely to get picked up. As you said, maybe Englund.


I don’t disagree, just pointing out why he is there. Hopefully Kaliyev comes back and pushes him out, maybe Lee does, who knows. I think his spot shouldn’t be guaranteed, that’s for sure.

My stances on vets and character have changed. Where I used to think that shit was over blown I realize it has good value. I’m open to vets with character and even limited ability to take a spot if they’re great in the locker room for
Other players. But my contingency is “limited ability”, Lewis doesn’t even have limited ability.

If Thomas or Turcotte isn’t playing opening night then it’s criminal honestly. And Lee really impressed me and I think he deserves a spot.

 

[tbrown33]

I really think Lewis’ pk ability is grossly overblown.

Correct

 

[Statto]

If Thomas or Turcotte isn’t playing opening night then it’s criminal honestly.

I agree 100%

Correct
View attachment 912045

That lacks any context…. Who was he playing with… what were his matchups etc. the conclusion may be correct but this doesn’t prove it.

 

[Statto]

Lee-Turcotte-Thomas tonight on the 4th line.

 

[lumbergh]

Lewis has been objectively terrible on the PK for the last two years and should not be an 82 game player even if he's fully healthy.

40-50 games MAX. I have no beef with that. But this org treats 40 years olds like 20 years olds until they turn into 60 year olds for the playoffs.

Hmm... which King had the fewest goals against per time killing penalties (GA/60) over the past two years (100 minutes minimum)?

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Hmm... which King had the fewest goals against per time killing penalties (GA/60) over the past two years (100 minutes minimum)?
View attachment 912087

He's bleeding shots against and chances at the greatest rate too, and is also now another year older...do you really want to roll that dice for yet another 82 games?

 

[lumbergh]

He's bleeding shots against and chances at the greatest rate too, and is also now another year older...do you really want to roll that dice for yet another 82 games?

I'm just showing you the data. Objectively, Trevor Lewis is the penalty killer that's hardest to score on by a country mile. In the end that's the most important metric as a penalty killer.

I'm not a Lewis fan. I wouldn't have brought him back if I were Blake. But to say that Trevor Lewis has been "terrible on the PK for the last two years" is objectively incorrect and easily debunked by the data.

 

[bland]

Lewis has been objectively terrible on the PK for the last two years and should not be an 82 game player even if he's fully healthy.

40-50 games MAX. I have no beef with that. But this org treats 40 years olds like 20 years olds until they turn into 60 year olds for the playoffs.

Trevor Lewis was the Kings best penalty killer last year via the eye test AND fancy stats indicate that the Lewis and Lizotte unit allowed fewer goals per 60 than any other unit.

Not sure why so many of you are SO dead set against having a quality 4th liner doing actual 4th line things.

 

[Surf Nutz]

blob:https://tenor.com/7171875a-cade-45dc-8e72-33d47b7666c3I really think Lewis’ pk ability is grossly overblown. I hate to bring this up but if Kings again play the oilers then that’s just wasted roster spot.

Lewis was destroyed by the oilers consistently. It’s just limited returns at this point. Would I have someone who might be a bit worse at PK while at least having some value with the puck? Yeah. Kings identity shouldn’t be losing to the oilers.

The Oilers destroyed everyone and had the highest PP % in the HISTORY of THE LEAGUE!

Lewis is getting his silver stick whether you like it or not!

Great stats from Lumbergjack!

Hiller, Blake and the Kings are very stats driven most of the time.

Aside from that how is the 4th line gonna go with three pretty much rookies?

No way!

He will not be sent down, especially after losing Lizzo another PK stalwart.

Put the whip away hot doggie daddy -o!

Bailbondsh GIF - Bailbondsh - Discover & Share GIFs

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

I'm just showing you the data. Objectively, Trevor Lewis is the penalty killer that's hardest to score on by a country mile. In the end that's the most important metric as a penalty killer.

I'm not a Lewis fan. I wouldn't have brought him back if I were Blake. But to say that Trevor Lewis has been "terrible on the PK for the last two years" is objectively incorrect and easily debunked by the data.

I dunno. I wouldn't call giving up by far the most shots and chances a positive thing. It also is heavily influenced by he was only on the team last year when the penalty kill was excellent and not the previous year when it was awful....so especially in that light, being the worst in shot and chnaces against rate is actually extra damning. Maybe I misspoke in saying two years, i was thinking calendar years not seasons i guess.

Regardless the idea is keeping him around for his PK ability isn't built on sound premises. There are plenty of dudes who can do what he does and more on the PK at this stage in his career. Use him to keep others fresh? Sure. But his day as a regular no brainer top end PKer should be long gone.

Trevor Lewis was the Kings best penalty killer last year via the eye test AND fancy stats indicate that the Lewis and Lizotte unit allowed fewer goals per 60 than any other unit.

Not sure why so many of you are SO dead set against having a quality 4th liner doing actual 4th line things.

I am dead set against a soon to be 38 year old playing 82 games at a 3rd line icetime rate because of his misinterpreted eliteness on the PK. That's all. Seems like we all agree, but that people are splitting hairs to defend it.

I like Trevor Lewis. I think he's a great role model for the 4th liners/kids. I also don't think he should be in a regular rotation as if he's 25.

 

[Surf Nutz]

I dunno. I wouldn't call giving up by far the most shots and chances a positive thing. It also is heavily influenced by he was only on the team last year when the penalty kill was excellent and not the previous year when it was awful....so especially in that light, being the worst in shot and chnaces against rate is actually extra damning. Maybe I misspoke in saying two years, i was thinking calendar years not seasons i guess.

Regardless the idea is keeping him around for his PK ability isn't built on sound premises. There are plenty of dudes who can do what he does and more on the PK at this stage in his career. Use him to keep others fresh? Sure. But his day as a regular no brainer top end PKer should be long gone.



I am dead set against a soon to be 38 year old playing 82 games at a 3rd line icetime rate because of his misinterpreted eliteness on the PK. That's all. Seems like we all agree, but that people are splitting hairs to defend it.

I like Trevor Lewis. I think he's a great role model for the 4th liners/kids. I also don't think he should be in a regular rotation as if he's 25.

You kinda have a point but teams, especially like the Oil or the Panthers are gonna get shots regardless.

Part of the statistically irrefutable success of Lewis the PK is allowing the less dangerous shots from the perimeter , not the house and allowing the Gtender

to see them and timing things to be clearing the rebounds.

Again its a transition year with some young guys and we lost half of the top PK unit already.

Maybe Lewis needs to be staggered and rested throughout the year but it should be against less potent PP teams.

Lewis is going to be practically part of the coaching staff.

But he will do it in game, on the ice and additionally model it.

 

[tbrown33]

Hmm... which King had the fewest goals against per time killing penalties (GA/60) over the past two years (100 minutes minimum)?
View attachment 912087

Including the previous year when Lewis wasn't on the team and the PK as a whole was a nightmare doesn't make a lot of sense.

Sorting by GA/60 for looking at PK numbers isn't ideal since it doesn't account for goaltending variance (among several other factors), but I'll play. Here's last year:

- Lewis did not lead the team in GA/60 at 5 on 4. This includes an on ice save percentage of 93.57%, which was highest among all forwards except for Lizotte. A number that also doesn't seem realistically sustainable on the penalty kill especially. Seeing that, it looks like he prevented a lot of scoring chances/high danger chances, right? Trevor Moore gave up FAR more goals/60 on the PK, but less scoring chances against. Why? Because the on ice save percentage for him was 86.29%. There wasn't a significant difference in high danger chances against/scoring chances against/or xGA between the two, even with Moore being slightly better in some categories. It came down to goaltending variance. You can see that in the HDGA/60 column.

- Kopitar (who should not be killing penalties) and Danault were the only two forwards with worse SCA/60 data.

In xGA/60, only forward that was worse was Kopitar.

There is no data to support that Lewis was particularly good, and saying "eye test" is just handwaving away what actually happened. At best you can say Lewis was a replacement level penalty killer.