Andersen decision looming for Leafs

[LeafsNation75]

This is what I thought was the most interesting part of the article.

There is another complicating factor: A league-wide talent influx at the position means more capable goaltenders are available each year in free agency. Right now, next off-season’s list could include Tuukka Rask, Jordan Binnington, Antti Raanta, and Philipp Grubauer.

Bringing this back to Andersen, although we can’t quite say what his cost base might be due to the economic uncertainty, we can get a feel for what type of contributor he has been and what future projections of performance may look like.

If we look at his performance measures over the last five years, we can grade him out against his peers accordingly:

Click to read more...

 

[Hclass47]

Trade for assets or let him walk. He’s going to be too expensive to resign

 

[613Leafer]

Lehner has better career stats, better recent stats, better playoff stats, and is 29 years old. Andersen will be 32 when his next contract kicks in.

If Lehner was 5 years X 5M, Andersen should be like 3-4 years X 4-4.5M. I wouldn't do 5 years X 5M, let alone anything above that. So if he's willing to sign a reasonable deal, sure. If not, then we need to look elsewhere. We don't have the cap flexibility to risk it.

 

[Zybalto]

Its all on Andersen to earn his big contract this year.

Slipping from a top 10 starter in previous years to a below average starter is very worrying though and his slide didn't start this year but down the stretch in Spring 2019 so I'm not completely confident at this point.

Just hoping the extended rest will help him turn it around.

 

[LeafsNation75]

Its all on Andersen to earn his big contract this year.

Slipping from a top 10 starter in previous years to a below average starter is very worrying though and his slide didn't start this year but down the stretch in Spring 2019 so I'm not completely confident at this point.

Just hoping the extended rest will help him turn it around.

Prior to Game 1 of the qualifying series against Columbus the last meaningful game Andersen played was on March 10, 2020 against Tampa Bay. So he had extended rest during that time and it didn't matter in the bubble. So is that going to make a difference whenever the 2020-21 season starts?

 

[Buds17]

An impressive season figures to bode well for his next contract. It also theoretically makes him more valuable to the Leafs. A subpar season figures to hinder the numbers on his next contract. It should also make a re-signing less likely. I'm not certain that Binnington and Rask in particular hit the free agent market. Is either of Grubauer or Raanta an upgrade? A starting goalie is an interesting player to have approaching his walk year. We'll see where this goes.

 

[X66]

Its all on Andersen to earn his big contract this year.

Slipping from a top 10 starter in previous years to a below average starter is very worrying though and his slide didn't start this year but down the stretch in Spring 2019 so I'm not completely confident at this point.

Just hoping the extended rest will help him turn it around.

This is what people don't get.

Andersen has normally been a great goalie(for us) in the regular season, and terrible in the playoffs.

But now, from the tail-end of the 2019 season, through the playoffs, through the entire 2019/2020 season and those playoffs, he's been bad...

I really, really wish we traded for Kuemper.

 

[Jimmy Firecracker]

Let’s see if he allows a goal from at or below the goal line in the playoffs again. That’s a good judge for the type of goalie he is methinks.

 

[Leafs87]

I think Andersen is a very good goalie. It’s hard to thrive in the leafs system. I also feel leafs did an awful job managing his workload.

He is a huge difference maker. See his team stats vs team stats without him in net. Last two years before Campbell came we have almost no backup points.

 

[member 300185]

The sooner they move Anderson, the sooner Hoffman signs with the Leafs.

 

[The Hanging Jowl]

He's a choker and has killed us in every playoff round he's played in with the Leafs. Campbell should have replaced him when it was clear he was a better goaltender. The team would be fools to re-sign him. Let him go for nothing if need be. I don't even care who the replacement is.

 

[Buds17]

The sooner they move Anderson, the sooner Hoffman signs with the Leafs.

Well, Hoffman would put up more points. I'd worry that the team would concede more goals against though with just Campbell and Dell in net.

 

[PromisedLand]

This is what I thought was the most interesting part of the article.

There is another complicating factor: A league-wide talent influx at the position means more capable goaltenders are available each year in free agency. Right now, next off-season’s list could include Tuukka Rask, Jordan Binnington, Antti Raanta, and Philipp Grubauer.

Bringing this back to Andersen, although we can’t quite say what his cost base might be due to the economic uncertainty, we can get a feel for what type of contributor he has been and what future projections of performance may look like.

If we look at his performance measures over the last five years, we can grade him out against his peers accordingly:

Intreresting; what this graph basically shows is that the "overpayment dubas BS" at the expense of team balance and defense shows up on the goalie metric

 

[Zybalto]

Prior to Game 1 of the qualifying series against Columbus the last meaningful game Andersen played was on March 10, 2020 against Tampa Bay. So he had extended rest during that time and it didn't matter in the bubble. So is that going to make a difference whenever the 2020-21 season starts?

He's also a notorious slow starter (not a good sign entering a short series) but was still good overall in the Columbus series. Giving up soft goals in deciding games is wearing some of us down though.

 

[meefer]

I'll wait on judgement of Freddie until I see how the team performs in front of him. Dubas has challenged the team to play tougher, do they? I'll argue their defense corp is the best I've seen since, well a long time ago, do they perform accordingly? Are the Leafs a more responsible team in their zone? When I see the answers to these questions, and how FA is playing behind them, I'll have a better idea what to do. I hope he kicks it out of the park.

 

[LeafsNation75]

He's also a notorious slow starter (not a good sign entering a short series) but was still good overall in the Columbus series. Giving up soft goals in deciding games is wearing some of us down though.

The only goal he allowed in Game 1 during the 3rd period when the score was still 0-0 was a bad one and a shot he needs to stop 100% of the time.



I also hated the second goal he allowed in Game 5, even if the Leafs screwed up on their line change right before it happened.



Finally 1 year earlier in Game 7 against Boston, he allowed a bad goal in the 1st period to give Boston a 1-0 lead.

 

[Fogelhund]

He's a choker and has killed us in every playoff round he's played in with the Leafs. Campbell should have replaced him when it was clear he was a better goaltender. The team would be fools to re-sign him. Let him go for nothing if need be. I don't even care who the replacement is.

That's foolish. He's far ahead of Campbell and Dell at this point. Killed us every playoff round? Sure, when he's let in an average of 1.5 goals in deciding games... maybe we should look at the whole team.... if you can't even score over a goal a game, with the dollars we have spent on "elite" forwards... maybe you shouldn't blame just the goalie. Noting, he's been part of the problem, but to blame him solely is ridiculous... the whole team hasn't been close to good enough.

 

[Zybalto]

I'll wait on judgement of Freddie until I see how the team performs in front of him. Dubas has challenged the team to play tougher, do they? I'll argue their defense corp is the best I've seen since, well a long time ago, do they perform accordingly? Are the Leafs a more responsible team in their zone? When I see the answers to these questions, and how FA is playing behind them, I'll have a better idea what to do. I hope he kicks it out of the park.

5v5 expected goals against/60 under Keefe ranking: 14th lowest in the league

Expected goals against/60 under Keefe on the PK ranking: 3rd lowest in the league

Overall expected goals against/60 under Keefe ranking: 10th lowest in the league

The defensive numbers under Keefe were the best we've seen in recent memory so theres hope there and thats with some pretty bad injuries to the d-corp.

 

[tokyoite]

Andersen no longer useful.

 

[LeafsNation75]

That's foolish. He's far ahead of Campbell and Dell at this point. Killed us every playoff round? Sure, when he's let in an average of 1.5 goals in deciding games... maybe we should look at the whole team.... if you can't even score over a goal a game, with the dollars we have spent on "elite" forwards... maybe you shouldn't blame just the goalie. Noting, he's been part of the problem, but to blame him solely is ridiculous... the whole team hasn't been close to good enough.

In the deciding games where the Leafs have been eliminated I say 50% of the blame goes to Andersen and the other 50% goes to them not scoring enough goals.

However Andersen can't allow bad shots to get past him like the 2nd goal in Game 5 against Columbus. Something like that is on him, even if their forwards are not able to score any goals.

 

[Fogelhund]

In the deciding games where the Leafs have been eliminated I say 50% of the blame goes to Andersen and the other 50% goes to them not scoring enough goals.

However Andersen can't allow bad shots to get past him like the 2nd goal in Game 5 against Columbus. Something like that is on him, even if their forwards are not able to score any goals.

The whole team needs to be better. The stars need to lead this team, in such games, and play like they are paid. This is a big year for everyone.

 

[meefer]

5v5 expected goals against/60 under Keefe ranking: 14th lowest in the league

Expected goals against/60 under Keefe on the PK ranking: 3rd lowest in the league

Overall expected goals against/60 under Keefe ranking: 10th lowest in the league

The defensive numbers under Keefe were the best we've seen in recent memory so theres hope there and thats with some pretty bad injuries to the d-corp.

Understood and appreciated, my comment was meant to indicate that Andersen's play last year was, perhaps, a one off. I suspect the team to be more dedicated in their zone this year, which should offer our goalies a better chance of improving on the number of times the puck goes in our net, regardless of last year's stats. I know things are inter-related (see your comment as evidence) I simply believe we should be better off with, imo an improved D corps + forwards being more invested, and as such we should see all our goalies have better numbers. I hope that's understandable, I'm in a bit of a rush

 

[Jimmy Firecracker]

I'm doubtful Andersen comes back even if he does shake his playoff demons and carries us past a round or two. He'll likely price himself out of Toronto and we'll have to look for a cheaper option. Can't go spending $7 million plus on a goaltender, especially with a stagnant cap. Someone will pay that if he does have a solid year and playoffs, but I doubt it'll be us. If he sucks again in the playoffs well he walks and he's not our problem anymore.

 

[Fogelhund]

I'm doubtful Andersen comes back even if he does shake his playoff demons and carries us past a round or two. He'll likely price himself out of Toronto and we'll have to look for a cheaper option. Can't go spending $7 million plus on a goaltender, especially with a stagnant cap. Someone will pay that if he does have a solid year and playoffs, but I doubt it'll be us. If he sucks again in the playoffs well he walks and he's not our problem anymore.

Who do you propose, would pay Andersen $7 mil?

 

[LeafsNation75]

The whole team needs to be better. The stars need to lead this team, in such games, and play like they are paid. This is a big year for everyone.

I agree the whole team needs to be better. However fair or not if Andersen has another bad playoffs where he allows a bad goal in a Game 7 and it turns out to be the difference, that's something a lot of fans will remember. Now if the Leafs also get shutout again in a winner take all game, maybe he wouldn't get all the negative attention.