Analyzing the results of Sabres' 2016-2020 drafts

[CowbellConray]

With us four seasons removed from the 2020 draft, and 8 from the 2016, I wanted to take a look back at the drafts for each year, grade them against picks made right after each selection.

Criteria for grading:
1) Effectiveness of player selected to the Sabres org
2) Results of players selected within 5 picks after Sabres selection
3) Results of players of the same position drafted around Sabres pick
4) Ad Hoc Nuance of pick (For example, Dahlin being a clear #1 OVR pick should be a consideration of evaluation

Goal - to understand how the Sabres front office drafting effectiveness for players that would currently be 22-26 years old and core members of the team.

2016:

Selection	Player	Grade (A-F)	Comments
8th	Alex Nylander	D	The only thing keeping this from an F is how poor the forward selections were after Alex. The next 6-7 forwards are all disappointments
33rd	Rasmus Asplund	D	Gave 1 season of decent play for the Sabres - 2 of the next forwards off the board: Jordan Kryou and Alex Debrincat
69th	Cliff Pu	F	Zero organization Games
86th	Casey Fitzgerald	B	63 NHL Games - Above average for late 3rd round and 15 players selected after him dont have much NHL value
99th	Brett Murray	C	23 NHL Games - Depth org piece. Weak 4th round
129th	Philip Nyberg	F	Zero organization Games
130th	Vojtech Budik	F	Zero NHL Games
159th	Brandon Hagel	F	Not signed - Productive NHL Player
189th	Austin Osmanski	F	Zero organization Games
190th	Vasili Glotov	D	Three organization Games

Result: Draft grade of D-
ZERO IMPACT PLAYERS
ZERO CURRENT NHL PLAYERS IN SABRES ORG

2017:

Selection	Player	Grade (A-F)	Comments
8th	Casey Mittelstadt	B	359 NHL Games - Top 6 Center for Buffalo for 2 years. Better forwards selected after him (Necas/Suzuki)
37th	Marcus Davidsson	F	Zero NHL Games
54th	UPL	A	102 NHL Games - Quality NHL Starter
89	Oskari Laaksonen	D	109 AHL Games - No NHL players selected after him for 10 picks (Bryson)
99	Jacob Bryson	B	206 NHL Games
192	Linus Weissbach	C	Over 150 AHL Games with Org over 3 seasons

Results: Draft grade of B-
UPL was a great pick
Casey was a solid pick, nothing to be ashamed of
Bryson was a solid pick in a relatively weak draft

2018:

Selection	Player	Grade (A-F)	Comments
1st	Rasmus Dahlin	A	Captain, all situations #1 D
32nd	Mattias Samuelsson	B	Bottom 4 Defenseman with potential, 154 NHL Games. Not much selected after him
94th	Matej Pekar	D	Minimal Org Impact
117th	Linus Cronholm	F	No Org Games
125th	Miska Kukkonen	F	No Org Games
187th	William Worge-Kreu	F	No Org Games

Results: Draft Grade of C-
Dahlin was a no brainer
Mattias was a strong pick
Not much available with the rest of the selections, but we managed to get no impact from bottom 4 picks...

2019:

Selection	Player	Grade (A-F)	Comments
7th	Dylan Cozens	A	284 Games - Top 6 Forward with more potential available. Selections after Dylan are ok, but unless they did a super reach for Boldy Dylan was the right pick
31st	Ryan Johnson	C	End of round is thin, but Johnson looks like he will be a solid bottom pair guy for a while. Some better players available after, but Johnson was a safe pick with a safe result
67th	Erik Portillo	F	Traded, Zero org games
102nd	Aaron Huglen	D	In College, but not looking to be anything more than a potential AHL deal
143rd	Filip Cederqvist	C	108 AHL Games - solid for a 5th round pick, but nothing special
160th	Lukas Rousek	B	17 NHL Games - Good 14th Forward

Results: Draft Grade C
Dylan was a great pick
Rousek was a solid get
Very safe draft with safe results

2020:

Selection	Player	Grade (A-F)	Comments
8th	Jack Quinn	B	Could maybe be an A, but injuries have held him back. A healthy Quinn is a top 6 forward with deadly offensive skills
34th	JJ Peterka	A	Steal of the draft across the league. Potential top line winger with superstar potential
131st	Matteo Constantini	D	Maybe an AHL deal, but not much in this round anyway
193rd	Albert Lyckasen	F	Wont get a contract
216th	Jakub Konecny	F	Wont get a contract

Results: Draft Grade C
Peterka was a great pick
Quinn is a good pick
Levi makes this look better, but again, wasted selections in later rounds

OVERALL GRADE
C

Not hard to understand our lack of results over the past few years. Our first round selections have really pulled us along as an organization. However, with a serious lack of late round hits, we face organizational depth weaknesses that force a lot of pressure on our front office to fill the gaps in other ways. When you go 4/17 with picks after 100 just for even AHL talent, it's an issue.

The good news? Early later round returns for 21-23 look way way better. Another post for another time.

Hope you all enjoy!

Click to read more...

 

[Doug Prishpreed]

With us four seasons removed from the 2020 draft, and 8 from the 2016, I wanted to take a look back at the drafts for each year, grade them against picks made right after each selection.

Criteria for grading:
1) Effectiveness of player selected to the Sabres org
2) Results of players selected within 5 picks after Sabres selection
3) Results of players of the same position drafted around Sabres pick
4) Ad Hoc Nuance of pick (For example, Dahlin being a clear #1 OVR pick should be a consideration of evaluation

Goal - to understand how the Sabres front office drafting effectiveness for players that would currently be 22-26 years old and core members of the team.

2016:

Selection	Player	Grade (A-F)	Comments
8th	Alex Nylander	D	The only thing keeping this from an F is how poor the forward selections were after Alex. The next 6-7 forwards are all disappointments
33rd	Rasmus Asplund	D	Gave 1 season of decent play for the Sabres - 2 of the next forwards off the board: Jordan Kryou and Alex Debrincat
69th	Cliff Pu	F	Zero organization Games
86th	Casey Fitzgerald	B	63 NHL Games - Above average for late 3rd round and 15 players selected after him dont have much NHL value
99th	Brett Murray	C	23 NHL Games - Depth org piece. Weak 4th round
129th	Philip Nyberg	F	Zero organization Games
130th	Vojtech Budik	F	Zero NHL Games
159th	Brandon Hagel	F	Not signed - Productive NHL Player
189th	Austin Osmanski	F	Zero organization Games
190th	Vasili Glotov	D	Three organization Games

Result: Draft grade of D-
ZERO IMPACT PLAYERS
ZERO CURRENT NHL PLAYERS IN SABRES ORG

2017:

Selection	Player	Grade (A-F)	Comments
8th	Casey Mittelstadt	B	359 NHL Games - Top 6 Center for Buffalo for 2 years. Better forwards selected after him (Necas/Suzuki)
37th	Marcus Davidsson	F	Zero NHL Games
54th	UPL	A	102 NHL Games - Quality NHL Starter
89	Oskari Laaksonen	D	109 AHL Games - No NHL players selected after him for 10 picks (Bryson)
99	Jacob Bryson	B	206 NHL Games
192	Linus Weissbach	C	Over 150 AHL Games with Org over 3 seasons

Results: Draft grade of B-
UPL was a great pick
Casey was a solid pick, nothing to be ashamed of
Bryson was a solid pick in a relatively weak draft

2018:

Selection	Player	Grade (A-F)	Comments
1st	Rasmus Dahlin	A	Captain, all situations #1 D
32nd	Mattias Samuelsson	B	Bottom 4 Defenseman with potential, 154 NHL Games. Not much selected after him
94th	Matej Pekar	D	Minimal Org Impact
117th	Linus Cronholm	F	No Org Games
125th	Miska Kukkonen	F	No Org Games
187th	William Worge-Kreu	F	No Org Games

Results: Draft Grade of C-
Dahlin was a no brainer
Mattias was a strong pick
Not much available with the rest of the selections, but we managed to get no impact from bottom 4 picks...

2019:

Selection	Player	Grade (A-F)	Comments
7th	Dylan Cozens	A	284 Games - Top 6 Forward with more potential available. Selections after Dylan are ok, but unless they did a super reach for Boldy Dylan was the right pick
31st	Ryan Johnson	C	End of round is thin, but Johnson looks like he will be a solid bottom pair guy for a while. Some better players available after, but Johnson was a safe pick with a safe result
67th	Erik Portillo	F	Traded, Zero org games
102nd	Aaron Huglen	D	In College, but not looking to be anything more than a potential AHL deal
143rd	Filip Cederqvist	C	108 AHL Games - solid for a 5th round pick, but nothing special
160th	Lukas Rousek	B	17 NHL Games - Good 14th Forward

Results: Draft Grade C
Dylan was a great pick
Rousek was a solid get
Very safe draft with safe results

2020:

Selection	Player	Grade (A-F)	Comments
8th	Jack Quinn	B	Could maybe be an A, but injuries have held him back. A healthy Quinn is a top 6 forward with deadly offensive skills
34th	JJ Peterka	A	Steal of the draft across the league. Potential top line winger with superstar potential
131st	Matteo Constantini	D	Maybe an AHL deal, but not much in this round anyway
193rd	Albert Lyckasen	F	Wont get a contract
216th	Jakub Konecny	F	Wont get a contract

Results: Draft Grade C
Peterka was a great pick
Quinn is a good pick
Levi makes this look better, but again, wasted selections in later rounds

OVERALL GRADE
C

Not hard to understand our lack of results over the past few years. Our first round selections have really pulled us along as an organization. However, with a serious lack of late round hits, we face organizational depth weaknesses that force a lot of pressure on our front office to fill the gaps in other ways. When you go 4/17 with picks after 100 just for even AHL talent, it's an issue.

The good news? Early later round returns for 21-23 look way way better. Another post for another time.

Hope you all enjoy!

This is traumatizing.

I’d be interested to see how this compares to other teams. Do they do significantly better, on average? Not asking you for more analyses, but I’ll have to look it up sometime.

 

[DapperCam]

I feel like your overall grades are a bit harsh. You seem to be judging in a vacuum, but I would guess our results are pretty similar to other teams. Nobody is getting contributions from 4th rounders and on consistently. They might hit on one every once in a while. I don't think the issue with this team has been lack of prospect talent. Primarily it's been team composition, coaching, and a lack of actual veterans.

 

[NotABadPeriod]

Cliff Pu may not have played in the organization, but that's not because it was a bad pick, it's because as a trade asset he held enough value to be part of the Skinner trade. Don't think it's fair to call it an F on that regard. Now, (with another organization) he didn't pan out, so as a player maybe you give him an F...but he did have value to us before busting.

 

[Gras]

Mitts wasnt a top 6 C in Buff

 

[Jacob582]

Cliff Pu may not have played in the organization, but that's not because it was a bad pick, it's because as a trade asset he held enough value to be part of the Skinner trade. Don't think it's fair to call it an F on that regard. Now, (with another organization) he didn't pan out, so as a player maybe you give him an F...but he did have value to us before busting.

I agree.

Same for Portillo. He held value for Buffalo to receive a pick in the trade.

 

[Matt Ress]

I agree.

Same for Portillo. He held value for Buffalo to receive a pick in the trade.

C in 2019 seems harsh. 4 out of 6 picks played nhl games

 

[KiwiGriff]

2020:

Selection	Player	Grade (A-F)	Comments
8th	Jack Quinn	B	Could maybe be an A, but injuries have held him back. A healthy Quinn is a top 6 forward with deadly offensive skills
34th	JJ Peterka	A	Steal of the draft across the league. Potential top line winger with superstar potential
131st	Matteo Constantini	D	Maybe an AHL deal, but not much in this round anyway
193rd	Albert Lyckasen	F	Wont get a contract
216th	Jakub Konecny	F	Wont get a contract

Results: Draft Grade C
Peterka was a great pick
Quinn is a good pick
Levi makes this look better, but again, wasted selections in later rounds

Jack Quinn is not a B. For his spot id call him a D. The dude has barely played, barely had any impact and a handful of consistent and good players were picked after him: Mercer, Perfetti, Rossi, Askarov, Lundell, Jarvis

 

[Aladyyn]

Jack Quinn is not a B. For his spot id call him a D. The dude has barely played, barely had any impact and a handful of consistent and good players were picked after him: Mercer, Perfetti, Rossi, Askarov, Lundell, Jarvis

Jarvis is the only player on that list that I'd even entertain the conversation for.

 

[VaporTrail]

 

[debaser66]

Mitts wasnt a top 6 C in Buff

he was actually the top center from the end of 22-23 until his trade

 

[Jim Bob]

This is traumatizing.

I’d be interested to see how this compares to other teams. Do they do significantly better, on average? Not asking you for more analyses, but I’ll have to look it up sometime.

The vast majority of draft picks don't work out.

If you get 3 NHLers in a draft, that is a really good haul.

30 out of 45 picks across those five Toronto drafts have 0 NHL GP.

You have 5 more picks with less than 10 NHL GP.

Only 7 picks with 82+ NHL GP.

And that is with 17 top 100 picks in those five drafts. So, it's not because they traded away all their early picks.

 

[Djp]

This analysis is awful

You are putting players equal weight.

Most teams are lucky to get a player above replacement value in round 3-7.

Also you need to factor in their value st the time if traded.

...more to follow....

 

[Djp]

In a gegeneral scope….

Top 20 should be long time nhl players playing till they are 30+
Low 1st/ high 2nd— therr are missed here, but thr ones who can get past 100+ nhl games usually have long careers if thry can modify to fit their role. These usually are the ones who can play bottom 6/ bottom pair

When you get outside the top 50 it’s harder to get a player above replacement. You might get some players who play some, hit high 100s/ mid 200s in games but those I consider replacement players who fill bottom 6/ bottom pair role until an ELC


2020- Quinn and Peterka make this a very good drsft
2019 Cozens, RyJo, Portillo, Rousek, highland. Potrntial for a very good draft
2018 Dahlin, Samuelsson, very good
2017 Mitts, UPL, bryson. Very good
2016 Nylander, Asplund, Fitzgerald, Murray we tradedvnylander for joker.

We traded Mitts for Byram 2019
Nylnder for joker 2017
We acquired Krebs 2019 Tage 2016 in this group

I’ve said before thE mid 2006 we’re the worst years with poor drafting.from 2005-2011

In a gegeneral scope….

Top 20 should be long time nhl players playing till they are 30+
Low 1st/ high 2nd— therr are missed here, but thr ones who can get past 100+ nhl games usually have long careers if thry can modify to fit their role. These usually are the ones who can play bottom 6/ bottom pair

When you get outside the top 50 it’s harder to get a player above replacement. You might get some players who play some, hit high 100s/ mid 200s in games but those I consider replacement players who fill bottom 6/ bottom pair role until an ELC


2020- Quinn and Peterka make this a very good drsft
2019 Cozens, RyJo, Portillo, Rousek, highland. Potrntial for a very good draft
2018 Dahlin, Samuelsson, very good
2017 Mitts, UPL, bryson. Very good
2016 Nylander, Asplund, Fitzgerald, Murray we tradedvnylander for joker.

We traded Mitts for Byram 2019
Nylnder for joker 2017
We acquired Krebs 2019 Tage 2016 in this group

I’ve said before thE mid 2006 we’re the worst years with poor drafting.from 2005-2011

 

[Djp]

In a gegeneral scope….

Top 20 should be long time nhl players playing till they are 30+
Low 1st/ high 2nd— therr are missed here, but thr ones who can get past 100+ nhl games usually have long careers if thry can modify to fit their role. These usually are the ones who can play bottom 6/ bottom pair

When you get outside the top 50 it’s harder to get a player above replacement. You might get some players who play some, hit high 100s/ mid 200s in games but those I consider replacemrnt players who fill bottom 6/ bottom pair role until an ELC

The vast majority of draft picks don't work out.

If you get 3 NHLers in a draft, that is a really good haul.

View attachment 917296

View attachment 917293

30 out of 45 picks across those five Toronto drafts have 0 NHL GP.

You have 5 more picks with less than 10 NHL GP.

Only 7 picks with 82+ NHL GP.

And that is with 17 top 100 picks in those five drafts. So, it's not because they traded away all their early picks.

Florida has Lundell, knight, tippet, Riley Stillman….and Levi

 

[Jim Bob]

Florida has Lundell, knight, tippet, Riley Stillman….and Levi

Boston has McAvoy, Frederic, Swayman, maybe guys like Beecher, and guys that bloomed elsewhere namely Lindgren.

Montreal has a bunch of guys that are players elsewhere (Sergachev, Romanov, Kotkaniemi, Poehling) and a couple good guys on their roster Caufield and Guhle.

Ottawa had a solid stretch over that time drafting Tkachuk, Stutzle. Sanderson, Batherson, Pinto, and Greig.

 

[K8fool]

With us four seasons removed from the 2020 draft, and 8 from the 2016, I wanted to take a look back at the drafts for each year, grade them against picks made right after each selection.

Criteria for grading:
1) Effectiveness of player selected to the Sabres org
2) Results of players selected within 5 picks after Sabres selection
3) Results of players of the same position drafted around Sabres pick
4) Ad Hoc Nuance of pick (For example, Dahlin being a clear #1 OVR pick should be a consideration of evaluation

Goal - to understand how the Sabres front office drafting effectiveness for players that would currently be 22-26 years old and core members of the team.

2016:

Selection	Player	Grade (A-F)	Comments
8th	Alex Nylander	D	The only thing keeping this from an F is how poor the forward selections were after Alex. The next 6-7 forwards are all disappointments
33rd	Rasmus Asplund	D	Gave 1 season of decent play for the Sabres - 2 of the next forwards off the board: Jordan Kryou and Alex Debrincat
69th	Cliff Pu	F	Zero organization Games
86th	Casey Fitzgerald	B	63 NHL Games - Above average for late 3rd round and 15 players selected after him dont have much NHL value
99th	Brett Murray	C	23 NHL Games - Depth org piece. Weak 4th round
129th	Philip Nyberg	F	Zero organization Games
130th	Vojtech Budik	F	Zero NHL Games
159th	Brandon Hagel	F	Not signed - Productive NHL Player
189th	Austin Osmanski	F	Zero organization Games
190th	Vasili Glotov	D	Three organization Games

Result: Draft grade of D-
ZERO IMPACT PLAYERS
ZERO CURRENT NHL PLAYERS IN SABRES ORG

2017:

Selection	Player	Grade (A-F)	Comments
8th	Casey Mittelstadt	B	359 NHL Games - Top 6 Center for Buffalo for 2 years. Better forwards selected after him (Necas/Suzuki)
37th	Marcus Davidsson	F	Zero NHL Games
54th	UPL	A	102 NHL Games - Quality NHL Starter
89	Oskari Laaksonen	D	109 AHL Games - No NHL players selected after him for 10 picks (Bryson)
99	Jacob Bryson	B	206 NHL Games
192	Linus Weissbach	C	Over 150 AHL Games with Org over 3 seasons

Results: Draft grade of B-
UPL was a great pick
Casey was a solid pick, nothing to be ashamed of
Bryson was a solid pick in a relatively weak draft

2018:

Selection	Player	Grade (A-F)	Comments
1st	Rasmus Dahlin	A	Captain, all situations #1 D
32nd	Mattias Samuelsson	B	Bottom 4 Defenseman with potential, 154 NHL Games. Not much selected after him
94th	Matej Pekar	D	Minimal Org Impact
117th	Linus Cronholm	F	No Org Games
125th	Miska Kukkonen	F	No Org Games
187th	William Worge-Kreu	F	No Org Games

Results: Draft Grade of C-
Dahlin was a no brainer
Mattias was a strong pick
Not much available with the rest of the selections, but we managed to get no impact from bottom 4 picks...

2019:

Selection	Player	Grade (A-F)	Comments
7th	Dylan Cozens	A	284 Games - Top 6 Forward with more potential available. Selections after Dylan are ok, but unless they did a super reach for Boldy Dylan was the right pick
31st	Ryan Johnson	C	End of round is thin, but Johnson looks like he will be a solid bottom pair guy for a while. Some better players available after, but Johnson was a safe pick with a safe result
67th	Erik Portillo	F	Traded, Zero org games
102nd	Aaron Huglen	D	In College, but not looking to be anything more than a potential AHL deal
143rd	Filip Cederqvist	C	108 AHL Games - solid for a 5th round pick, but nothing special
160th	Lukas Rousek	B	17 NHL Games - Good 14th Forward

Results: Draft Grade C
Dylan was a great pick
Rousek was a solid get
Very safe draft with safe results

2020:

Selection	Player	Grade (A-F)	Comments
8th	Jack Quinn	B	Could maybe be an A, but injuries have held him back. A healthy Quinn is a top 6 forward with deadly offensive skills
34th	JJ Peterka	A	Steal of the draft across the league. Potential top line winger with superstar potential
131st	Matteo Constantini	D	Maybe an AHL deal, but not much in this round anyway
193rd	Albert Lyckasen	F	Wont get a contract
216th	Jakub Konecny	F	Wont get a contract

Results: Draft Grade C
Peterka was a great pick
Quinn is a good pick
Levi makes this look better, but again, wasted selections in later rounds

OVERALL GRADE
C

Not hard to understand our lack of results over the past few years. Our first round selections have really pulled us along as an organization. However, with a serious lack of late round hits, we face organizational depth weaknesses that force a lot of pressure on our front office to fill the gaps in other ways. When you go 4/17 with picks after 100 just for even AHL talent, it's an issue.

The good news? Early later round returns for 21-23 look way way better. Another post for another time.

Hope you all enjoy!

Actually makes gm and staff look good at ridding ourselves of players and drafting during thin years. Not giving muel an A ? Quinn ?

If yr willing you could make yr points better that we suck if you put the 5 picks at top of the rounds we missed on ( d and f grades) that played meaningful games for context and the picks we passed on in first 3 rounds etc.

 

[Chainshot]

Some points that I would make have already been made like trying to weight later draft cooks in the same fashion as early round draft picks. We know the distribution for pics overtime based on games played criteria dip dramatically as one progresses into the draft. Similarly, use of a prospect to be flipped in trade doesn’t necessarily mean that the player was ineffective. Cliff Pu was part of obtaining Skinner, who was an effective goal scorer for most of his tenure. Portillo was flipped for another draft pick. And he also remains a very viable prospect goaltender who should be playing for the kings reasonably soon.

That’s not to say that I find fault with everything in the assessment. It is kind of interesting to look back. Is it a matter of talent evaluation or talent development? Who if anyone is still involved in the process of making those selections? There is some evidence that the Big Head front office was almost completely cleaned out due in part two how crappy their drafting was.

 

[Zman5778]

Not to pile on, but another point that I haven't seen discussed here is that these grades take into account who was drafted "right after" our pick. There seems to be some sort of assumption that whoever was picked after the guys we picked would develop EXACTLY the same with us as with the drafting team.

Had we taken McAvoy or Sergachev or Chychrun instead of Nylander -- do any/all still develop the way the did? There's no real answer to that question.

It's a fair thing to occasionally asses our draft performance from time to time.......but I see nothing that makes me think that we're particularly worse than other teams (or better).

 

[K8fool]

Mitts wasnt a top 6 C in Buff

Mitts will be a great player from 28 yrs to 30s if he doesn’t get seriously hurt. I agree w not waiting. I like Byram

Mitts will be a great player from 28 yrs to 30s if he doesn’t get seriously hurt. I agree w not waiting. I like Byram

Some guys you draft. Some guys u trade for after they’ve been seasoned and actually decide to be serious and not just get by on their immense talent and arrogance.

 

[CowbellConray]

To address some of the questions:

1) I weigh the ability to find AHL talent in rounds 4-7. If I'm a GM, my GOAL is to find a guy who deserves an ELC or AHL deal. Will every guy achieve that? No. But if I'm a GM I wouldn't want to hear anyone in my org tell me "well if we draft this guy and don't give him a contract it's ok". Even though we all know that is the result.

2) Regarding players who were traded before playing with the org (Portillo/Pu), I took that into consideration and measured against the quality of the selections around them and how they may have impacted the org if they were selected instead. Pu with an F is probably my harshest grade, but when 10 of the next 20 picks play NHL games, and our guy was a throw in for Skinner (again, I'm probably overly harsh here) that's not the value I'd look for. Comparable to Josh Bloom, who gets dealt for ultimately a few games of a player. In the 3rd round, I'd want a guy who at least looks to be a solid AHL talent with NHL upside.

3) Portillo is a harsh grade because 60% of the next 14 players selected after him have played NHL games for their clubs. Portillo is not a bad pick in pure value, but the organization didn't manage that relationship well, and the impact to the org is taking a pick in 2019 and turning it into a pick in 2023. Pure value, probably a C grade. Organizational impacts? F.

4) Also, to be fair - I dont rate each round equally. I didnt want to make the post too long, but for any picks in rounds 4-7, if they played any organizational games (AHL) it couldn't be an F. If they were a consistent AHL contributor, they were a C (my goal of what I would want from a late round pick). If they were a strong AHL guy, a B. And an NHL player - an A.

5) I am about as staunch of a supporter of front offices as anyone on this board. I dont think a B- grade in a draft is a bad thing. That's above expectations. Maybe I could make small adjustments to 2019 to bump our overall drafting from a C to a C+, but it plays to a larger point - from 2016-2020 we simply did not do a good enough job finding organizational talent outside of the first round. Fortunately, we've seemed to improve on this for 2021 and 2022

Not to pile on, but another point that I haven't seen discussed here is that these grades take into account who was drafted "right after" our pick. There seems to be some sort of assumption that whoever was picked after the guys we picked would develop EXACTLY the same with us as with the drafting team.

Had we taken McAvoy or Sergachev or Chychrun instead of Nylander -- do any/all still develop the way the did? There's no real answer to that question.

It's a fair thing to occasionally asses our draft performance from time to time.......but I see nothing that makes me think that we're particularly worse than other teams (or better).

I tried to focus on players who were selected generally after our pick. Say within the next 5-15 picks. I understand that boards for teams are all different, but without knowing the Sabres board in each draft the overall selections are all I have to go by.

Organizational development is a huge variable, I thought it would be quite hard to standardize so I removed it altogether. With that said, especially for the later rounds, I gave a fair grade to players who simply showed positive development in any capacity while they weren't with the Sabres or Amerks.

EDIT: To add to this - I agree with your last point - we are a very average team when it comes to drafting. We have pros and cons, but overall we are average (hence the C grade)

 

[K8fool]

Not to pile on, but another point that I haven't seen discussed here is that these grades take into account who was drafted "right after" our pick. There seems to be some sort of assumption that whoever was picked after the guys we picked would develop EXACTLY the same with us as with the drafting team.

Had we taken McAvoy or Sergachev or Chychrun instead of Nylander -- do any/all still develop the way the did? There's no real answer to that question.

It's a fair thing to occasionally asses our draft performance from time to time.......but I see nothing that makes me think that we're particularly worse than other teams (or better).

Forton was retained. Karmanos given more responsibility etc

 

[CowbellConray]

Some points that I would make have already been made like trying to weight later draft cooks in the same fashion as early round draft picks. We know the distribution for pics overtime based on games played criteria dip dramatically as one progresses into the draft. Similarly, use of a prospect to be flipped in trade doesn’t necessarily mean that the player was ineffective. Cliff Pu was part of obtaining Skinner, who was an effective goal scorer for most of his tenure. Portillo was flipped for another draft pick. And he also remains a very viable prospect goaltender who should be playing for the kings reasonably soon.

That’s not to say that I find fault with everything in the assessment. It is kind of interesting to look back. Is it a matter of talent evaluation or talent development? Who if anyone is still involved in the process of making those selections? There is some evidence that the Big Head front office was almost completely cleaned out due in part two how crappy their drafting was.

You are probably right that I am too harsh on talent that we "gave up on" or traded. It put me in a tough position, do I grade the overall player's skill regardless of impact to the org, or do I grade the impact to the org as priority? I tried to balance, but in situations like Pu and Portillo, there is some nuance there.

 

[K8fool]

Not to pile on, but another point that I haven't seen discussed here is that these grades take into account who was drafted "right after" our pick. There seems to be some sort of assumption that whoever was picked after the guys we picked would develop EXACTLY the same with us as with the drafting team.

Had we taken McAvoy or Sergachev or Chychrun instead of Nylander -- do any/all still develop the way the did? There's no real answer to that question.

It's a fair thing to occasionally asses our draft performance from time to time.......but I see nothing that makes me think that we're particularly worse than other teams (or better).

Context. Personality. Work habits and ability to play team hockey sacrifice block shots , so wins in the games played. Might be an interesting stat for a grade. To give more partial Context

 

[CowbellConray]

C in 2019 seems harsh. 4 out of 6 picks played nhl games

It's probably my harshest grade. I frankly am not happy with trading Portillo for another pick 4 years later - I think that's bad asset management.

This is traumatizing.

I’d be interested to see how this compares to other teams. Do they do significantly better, on average? Not asking you for more analyses, but I’ll have to look it up sometime.

I'll pull another team who was in a similar situation to ours during that time period to compare (maybe the Devils?)