Proposal: ANA/WPG: Lindholm for Trouba

[nbducksfan19]

Lindholm and Trouba are very comparable. L only outscored T by 7 points with playing more pp time on the top ranked pp on the league. T actually outscored L at even strength this past season.

And they say Winnipeg fans over rate their players.

Ya except T couldn't touch L's jock strap as it pertains to the job they are supposed to do first and foremost....defense.

 

[Quackers18]

Just so people know based on this trade proposal. The ducks were on Trouba in the draft. Passed on him for Lindholm so I'm guessing that they wouldn't think of trading a player that is better right now IMO that wants a ton of money.

 

[oilerbear]

So I think that Trouba for Lindholm is a pretty good frame work for a deal between the two teams, and Lindholm is one of the few available players that I would consider trading Trouba for.

I'm expecting an overwhelming response from Anaheim fans saying that they want some blue chip prospect along with Trouba to get Lindholm because he is just so much better.

Well, he's not...so let's keep this civil and try to understand that the two players are very comparable on terms of value and it is highly debatable which one will actually turn out to be the better defenseman.

So...let's make a deal.


Untouchable's from WPG: Ehlers, Connor, Laine, Morrissey, most roster players.


ANNNNNDDDDDDDDD GO!

Ah!
Opinion!
Opinion; Def: Point of view not based on facts or knowledge.

The game is GF and GA.

A team needs +.31EVGF/60 compared to their EVGA/60 to have a chance at a Wild Card playoff position.

What is the most important parts of a Dman's game:

A little knowledge for you!

GF:
Of the top 300 (10 per team) Even goals scorers,
27 Are dmen who get 202 EVG
273 are forwards who get 3040 EVG
Dmen generate 6.2% of EVG.

When Dmen directly drive offence .17 EVG/60 is scored
When forwards diretly drive offence .61 EVG/60 are scored
3.6 times as many EVG per minute.

So the one Even offensive skill I want from my Dmen is a quick transition read and pass to the forwards. So the opposition D cannot set-up for Preventing Zone entry and HSCA penetration. Cause Dmne do not drive even offence.
top end EVA/60

PPGF:
it is a unit driven System.
Of the top 170 efficient PP Goals scorers.
14 Dmen score 163/1854 G 8.8%
6 Dmen are in the top 100 score 96/1377G 7.0%
1st unit PP only 12D would be PPG effective.
only 4 would be considered top end PPG scorers.
OEL; Weber; Faulk; Burns.

So Dmen really make a difference on those PPG. 7% Bahahahaha!



GA:
The HSCA (High Scoring Chance Area) 75% of goals come from the league avg 10.5
HSCA shots in a 30 shot game.

The league average for Shooting % is 8.5%.
The 19.5 Low Scoring Chance Area Shots (0-8.5%) get 25% of a games goals.
The 10.5 HSCA shots (8.5 to 25%) get 75% of goals.

Elite HSCA dmen give up 7.5-8.75 HSCA shot rang
Lindholm; Weber; Vanic; Larsson; Davidson; K. Miller
top 60 HSCAD give up 8.75 to 10.25 HSCA shots
Vatanen; Klefbom; Brodie
Avg HSCA Dmen give up 10.25 to 11.25 HSCA shots
Below avg HSCA D give up 11.25 to 12.25 HSCA shots
Subban; Hamonic
Awful HSCA dmen give up 12.25+ HSCA shots.
Gio; D. Hamilton; Reinhart; Nurse; Faulk; Barrie

10.5 gives up 75% of leagues goals.
7.5 Shots gives up 7.5/10.5 X 75% = 53.6% of league goals.
13.5 shots gives up 13.5/10.5 X 75% 96.4% of league goals.
that is a variance of 42.8% of the leagues total goals from controlling the HSCA area.

the Low Scoring Chance area largely sees avg of 17.5 to 21.5 LSCA shots
17.5shots/19.5 22.4%
19.5% shots 25.0%
21.5/19.5 = 27.6%
That is largely a 5.2% of total goal variance.


PKGA:
63 of the top 120 PK players are Dmen.
They are equal partners on the GA side of special teams.
PKGA d have more value to team Goal differential than PPGF D.

So you want
Top end D with
top Even assit rates
Strong HSCA defensive play
Low Shot against rates
Top end even & PKGA.

Last year:
Even:
Comp:
Lindholm #60 D comp
Trouba #61 D comp

EVA/60
Lindholm .40 #170 D
Trouba .34 #181 D

HSCA/60
Lindholm top 10
Trouba top 80

EVGA/60
Lindholm #20 D 1.68 - 221 forwards can outscore 1.99 needed
Trouba #60 1.94 - 160 fwds can outscore 2.25 EVGF needed.
this area is critical cause of the extra .31 EVGF forwards have to score to be Wild card competitive.

PKGA/60 leaue Aveage 6.44
Lindholm #8 D 3.88 +2.56 Goal dif per 60 miutes
Trouba #107 8.17 -1.73 Goal dif per 60 minutes.

So lindholm is one of the 10 best 1st comp Even Def D in the game there with
#1 Larsson
#3 A. Greene
#10 Doughty
#11 Niskanen
#17 Alzner
#20 Hedman
#20 Lindhlom
#25 Boychuk
#26 Manson
#46 Myers

Lindholm is in a rare group of 11 Dmen top 40 EVGA and PK GA D
Alzner (1st comp)
Boychuk (1st)
Campbell (2nd)
Carlson (bot 2nd)
Davidson (2nd)
Doumulin (top 2nd)
A. Greene (Top 1st)
A. Larsson (top 1st)
Lindholm (bot 1st)
Manson (Bot 1st)
Martinez (bot 2nd)
Dmen top 40 In EVA/60 in Bold


they are both poor at getting the top even goal scorers the puck.

It really is not even close to the level of comp each d can be trusted to play.
trouba needs to be playing at a 2nd comp level.

 

[GoJetsGo55]

they are both poor at getting the top even goal scorers the puck.

It really is not even close to the level of comp each d can be trusted to play.
trouba needs to be playing at a 2nd comp level.

That's a damn fine amount of work.

Can you break down Trouba's numbers between when he was with Stuart and when he was with Buff.

From everything I have seen advanced stat's wise, his numbers were night and day when he wasn't playing the "make Stuart look respectable" role.

When he was moved up to play with Buff, his numbers were significantly higher while Stuarts fell off a cliff.

Would be really great to see your system in play with and without Stuart.

Edit: Here's the article I was thinking about

http://jetsnation.ca/2016/6/6/don-t-let-point-totals-fool-you-trouba-has-been-getting-better-and-better

 

[oilerbear]

Cup caliber teams need 3+ top 60 HSCA D.
and
a top end HSCA save% goalie.

Fowler was a good HSCA D when he played with a HSCA cup anchor Dman like Lovejoy.
He is a defensive liability when he is without him.

Do not really care about a dman's EVp numbers cause the EVA rate ius all that matters.
High EVP dmen are often avg to poor on the HSCA range cause they have to abandon HSCA defending to drive offence.

 

[Legend123]

I'm as much of a Flames fan as Gallagher is a 50 or 60 point player. You're wrong on both points; take a seat

from calgay but isnt a flames fan... bandwagoner

 

[oilerbear]

That's a damn fine amount of work.

Can you break down Trouba's numbers between when he was with Stuart and when he was with Buff.

From everything I have seen advanced stat's wise, his numbers were night and day when he wasn't playing the "make Stuart look respectable" role.

When he was moved up to play with Buff, his numbers were significantly higher while Stuarts fell off a cliff.

Would be really great to see your system in play with and without Stuart.

As a young man watching the Clarke; Leach; Stoughton flin flon bombers it became evident that the violence of those teams was about Defend the net and drive the net.

Any D pairing is dependent on the situational decision of the players and weather hey match.

I am a believer in Analytics to try and match dpairs and lines.
But sometimes they just do not work.
failure of symbiosis.

Looking at the numbers I Believe Corsi to be affected by
System;
Net targeting (counterattack off missed shots)
Forward zone entry

Shot against and HSCA area shot against largely by Dmen.

So you need to Go to
Corsica Hockey:
-provides pairing Measures.
-PLayer partnered shot charts to see were the penttration is.
-look at Corsi against rates and see if they match up to most common forwards played with line combinations.

Stast hockey analysis:
You can fins a list of the forwards played with at Stats hockey analysis.

I like to see if a Dman has a multitude of partners they have success with.
suggesting a positive trend
versus a negative trend.

Stuart is a bad result.
if he is one of 5-7 no biggy.
if he is 3-7 or 4-7 Etc. that is not a good thing.

 

[Bear of Bad News]

Some of you need to learn how to act like an adult.