Proposal: ANA - SEA

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

He's also UFA in two years. At which point he'll likely still be cheaper, but only because he really isn't all that offensively impactful. Is he a 2nd liner? Probably not on a good offensive team. Maybe as the 3rd wheel "defensive dude" on a skilled line.

A guy averaging 2.04 p/60 at 5v5 is a quality offensive contributor, which is what Kakko had done over the last 2 seasons (it helped finally getting out of Rangers purgatory). Among league forwards, he's just behind Bratt, Stutzle, and Sennecke in that metric, and ahead of guys like Malkin, Rantanen, Hintz, and Ehlers

It''s even more notable when he's done it on a very low scoring Seattle team.

McTavish has flashed higher upside, and has two additional years of runway lef over KK. Assuming a guy approaching his 25/26 year old season has any remaining.

He may have flashed higher upside but was the inferior player last year, on a downward trajectory with the more expensive contract. The only thing keeping their value even is the potential that McTavish makes significant defensive improvements and is able to rekindle some of the offensive game he had earlier in his career. But if he tops out as a 50 point center who is a liability in his own end, there aren't going to be a lot of teams interested in paying him $7M

It's worth noting that Kakko played most of the year with Shane Wright as his center, while McTavish played alongside Sennecke and Gauthier for most of the year, and was still less productive on a per game basis.

 

[cheesymc]

Yuck... no one wants negative-nancy Wright. At least Mac can shoot the puck and has size...

Maybe Krappo for Vatrano...

 

[CLW]

I would do it if I was the Ducks. I think Kakko is extremely underrated and wouldn’t be surprised if he ended up being the best player in this deal.

Kakko would fit in very nicely with the Quenneville Ducks imo. Verbeek reportedly attempted to trade for him while he still was with the Rangers.

 

[lwvs84]

A guy averaging 2.04 p/60 at 5v5 is a quality offensive contributor, which is what Kakko had done over the last 2 seasons (it helped finally getting out of Rangers purgatory). Among league forwards, he's just behind Bratt, Stutzle, and Sennecke in that metric, and ahead of guys like Malkin, Rantanen, Hintz, and Ehlers

It''s even more notable when he's done it on a very low scoring Seattle team.

He may have flashed higher upside but was the inferior player last year, on a downward trajectory with the more expensive contract. The only thing keeping their value even is the potential that McTavish makes significant defensive improvements and is able to rekindle some of the offensive game he had earlier in his career. But if he tops out as a 50 point center who is a liability in his own end, there aren't going to be a lot of teams interested in paying him $7M

View attachment 1249217View attachment 1249219

It's worth noting that Kakko played most of the year with Shane Wright as his center, while McTavish played alongside Sennecke and Gauthier for most of the year, and was still less productive on a per game basis.

Kakko is trending down as a playoff player. 9 points in 44 games overall while he's gone down from 5 in 19 in his second playoffs, 2 in 7 in his next trip, and 2 in 15 in the last one. McTavish has 6 in 10. Ducks need more scoring in the playoffs, and the powerplay looked completely inept in the two games that he was scratched. His linemates were Gauthier playing with a fractured back (0 points and a -3 in the two games that McTavish missed) and Poehling (1 assist and a -2 in the two games McTavish was scratched), so not like they were keeping pace without him in the lineup.

I think most Ducks fans would agree that he shouldn't have been scratched in the playoffs, there was at least one bigger scratch candidate, but because of being a vet wasn't scratched despite poor play.

 

[FiveTacos]

I think most Ducks fans would agree that he shouldn't have been scratched in the playoffs, there was at least one bigger scratch candidate, but because of being a vet wasn't scratched despite poor play.

Oh we don't need to *cough**Kreids**cough* bring that up.

A guy averaging 2.04 p/60 at 5v5 is a quality offensive contributor, which is what Kakko had done over the last 2 seasons (it helped finally getting out of Rangers purgatory). Among league forwards, he's just behind Bratt, Stutzle, and Sennecke in that metric, and ahead of guys like Malkin, Rantanen, Hintz, and Ehlers

It''s even more notable when he's done it on a very low scoring Seattle team.

That it puts him ahead of some superstars suggests the metric isn't very good. Guys like Malkin and Rantanen should not be behind Kakko on any offensive metric.

And even this year's SEA team was miles ahead of the teams McTavish played for yet he paced for 50+.

He may have flashed higher upside but was the inferior player last year, on a downward trajectory with the more expensive contract.

Kakko's had his own downard trajectory seasons. And he's 2 years older, so again much more runway for Mctavish remaining. At best, as a pretty much finished product Kakko was slightly more productive this year than McTavish having what was probably his worst season yet.

In any case, I'll always bet on a 23 year old who's flashed higher highs, than the 25 year old who's always been just okay. It might not pay off as a bet, but the payout is far, far higher. And frankly, if this was McTavish's floor then it's also way higher than Kakko's floor.

Also let's note, there was a dropoff in McTavish's shot speed and skating speed and FOs in early January ... which coincided with him missing subsequent games with an unnamed injury. They haven't said anything, but it seems likely he was playing through something (much like Leo when he had the mysterious dropoff in speed and productivity before his surgery).

 

[robbieboy3686]

IMO it has to be more than just a short sample size ... I mean, Fraser Minten managed a point per game for a month. Lots of guys have hot months. You sustain beyond that, you might have something beyond a statistical anomaly.

McTavish at age 22 had a Jan-Apr run of just under a point per game. At 20 he had a run of 21 in 20 games, that went for almost 2 months. Both times he looked not like a 2C, but a low end 1C.

Kakko's best month was 12 in 14 this year at age 25. Before that the best he managed was 12 in 16 last year. Neither outburst sustained.

I don't think it's controversial to say McTavish has shown significantly more upside, at a younger age.

+1000

 

[Rec T]

Oh we don't need to *cough**Kreids**cough* bring that up.



That it puts him ahead of some superstars suggests the metric isn't very good. Guys like Malkin and Rantanen should not be behind Kakko on any offensive metric.

And even this year's SEA team was miles ahead of the teams McTavish played for yet he paced for 50+.



Kakko's had his own downard trajectory seasons. And he's 2 years older, so again much more runway for Mctavish remaining. At best, as a pretty much finished product Kakko was slightly more productive this year than McTavish having what was probably his worst season yet.

In any case, I'll always bet on a 23 year old who's flashed higher highs, than the 25 year old who's always been just okay. It might not pay off as a bet, but the payout is far, far higher. And frankly, if this was McTavish's floor then it's also way higher than Kakko's floor.

Also let's note, there was a dropoff in McTavish's shot speed and skating speed and FOs in early January ... which coincided with him missing subsequent games with an unnamed injury. They haven't said anything, but it seems likely he was playing through something (much like Leo when he had the mysterious dropoff in speed and productivity before his surgery).

How dare you bring facts and logic in here. Don't you realize that this is a place for nonDucks fans to come crap on McT, use cherry picked stats to show that he's washed up at 23, and to prevent him the embarrassment of only finding a roster spot available to him in Europe by next Christmas, they're willing to reluctantly part with some used belly button lint for him.

For shame sir, for shame...

 

[periferal]

McTavish going to Sens. Kraken will trade 7th for EP40

If the Kraken do this they should be forced to relovate to Phoenix.

 

[JiggywithGibby]

A guy averaging 2.04 p/60 at 5v5 is a quality offensive contributor, which is what Kakko had done over the last 2 seasons (it helped finally getting out of Rangers purgatory). Among league forwards, he's just behind Bratt, Stutzle, and Sennecke in that metric, and ahead of guys like Malkin, Rantanen, Hintz, and Ehlers

It''s even more notable when he's done it on a very low scoring Seattle team.

He may have flashed higher upside but was the inferior player last year, on a downward trajectory with the more expensive contract. The only thing keeping their value even is the potential that McTavish makes significant defensive improvements and is able to rekindle some of the offensive game he had earlier in his career. But if he tops out as a 50 point center who is a liability in his own end, there aren't going to be a lot of teams interested in paying him $7M

View attachment 1249217View attachment 1249219

It's worth noting that Kakko played most of the year with Shane Wright as his center, while McTavish played alongside Sennecke and Gauthier for most of the year, and was still less productive on a per game basis.

Gee I wonder why a guy who missed camp in a year with a new coach, and a new system to learn, in a year where they got to practice once every two weeks on average due to the pace of the schedule would struggle defensively........... Absolute shocker that this would happen........

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Gee I wonder why a guy who missed camp in a year with a new coach, and a new system to learn, in a year where they got to practice once every two weeks on average due to the pace of the schedule would struggle defensively........... Absolute shocker that this would happen........

That seems like an odd excuse, the whole team had to get up to speed. You telling me he couldn't figure out the system all year?

 

[JiggywithGibby]

That seems like an odd excuse, the whole team had to get up to speed. You telling me he couldn't figure out the system all year?

The rest of the team got a full training camp. Lots of players who miss camp have write-off years that following year before recovering. The only thing odd is you objecting to a clear pattern of evidence, or was Luke Hughes play this year, Jeremy swaymans the year before, William Nylander with his contract holdout, and all the other not a sufficient body of evidence for you?

Maybe you should cite Kakko's P/60 again, I'm sure seeing it a 4th time is going to finally convince the rest of us he isn't a middling middle 6 winger.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

The rest of the team got a full training camp. Lots of players who miss camp have write-off years that following year before recovering. The only thing odd is you objecting to a clear pattern of evidence, or was Luke Hughes play this year, Jeremy swaymans the year before, William Nylander with his contract holdout, and all the other not a sufficient body of evidence for you?

Maybe you should cite Kakko's P/60 again, I'm sure seeing it a 4th time is going to finally convince the rest of us he isn't a middling middle 6 winger.

Guys with hold outs typically recover by the end of the year, just like Luke Hughes. McTavish's play got even worse after the Olympic break.

I'm not saying it's a death sentence for him, but it's objectively hurt his value.

 

[FiveTacos]

Guys with hold outs typically recover by the end of the year, just like Luke Hughes. McTavish's play got even worse after the Olympic break.

As I mentioned something may have been bothering him. Otherwise how to explain how he forgot how to skate, shoot hard, and take faceoffs for several months?

I'm not saying it's a death sentence for him, but it's objectively hurt his value.

Maybe. But reports are that the Ducks are getting lots of inquiries. If everyone was convinced this year was the real player and the previous years were not, why would anyone even ask about him at that cap hit? Obviously a lot of teams figure a bounce back is a good bet to happen.

But if the value is low enough then it makes more sense for the Ducks to be the ones betting on his bounce back.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

As I mentioned something may have been bothering him. Otherwise how to explain how he forgot how to skate, shoot hard, and take faceoffs for several months?



Maybe. But reports are that the Ducks are getting lots of inquiries. If everyone was convinced this year was the real player and the previous years were not, why would anyone even ask about him at that cap hit? Obviously a lot of teams figure a bounce back is a good bet to happen.

But if the value is low enough then it makes more sense for the Ducks to be the ones betting on his bounce back.

Of course they are interested, they are trying to get a player on the cheap, while his value is lower, and hope he can bounce back.

 

[FiveTacos]

Of course they are interested, they are trying to get a player on the cheap, while his value is lower, and hope he can bounce back.

But they must believe there's a high probability of a bounce back to be willing to take on 5 more years at 7m per.

If the thinking is I'm not giving up much because I think he's a low probability pure reclamation project, taking on that contract is contradictory. You want a low probability reclamation project, go find one with minimal financial risk. Makes no sense to say "he probably is a long shot, let's commit 5x7m to him."

 

[duckpuck]

Weird no one has mentioned Kakko's contract. 2 years until he's a UFA at which point he'll want more $$ than McTavish has under his current deal. I expect McTavish to bounce back and would only want to trade him for a better piece than Kakko. Don't get me wrong, I'd like Kakko on the ducks, just not at the expense of McTavish

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

But they must believe there's a high probability of a bounce back to be willing to take on 5 more years at 7m per.

If the thinking is I'm not giving up much because I think he's a low probability pure reclamation project, taking on that contract is contradictory. You want a low probability reclamation project, go find one with minimal financial risk. Makes no sense to say "he probably is a long shot, let's commit 5x7m to him."

I mean if they think he's a 40% chance he stagnates and ends up a 45 point center, but a 60% chance he becomes a 60 point center, they probably take that bet. Worst case they overpay by a couple million million, but more than likely he's worth it. I think it's a good gamble, the kid has talent.

None of this is contradicting my point though, that his recent trajectory has impacted his value.

 

[JiggywithGibby]

Guys with hold outs typically recover by the end of the year, just like Luke Hughes. McTavish's play got even worse after the Olympic break.

I'm not saying it's a death sentence for him, but it's objectively hurt his value.

Swayman didn't, he fell off a cliff after the all star break. Different players and different situations happen, the Ducks as a whole went on a major skid post Olympic break, dropping from first in the division to risking missing the playoffs all together.

For it "not being a death sentence" you're sure trying to convince us that it is and we should be happy to accept a couple of third line players for him and count our lucky stars that there was another GM stupid enough to take him off our hands and pay for the privilege. We've grown tired of it, take your McTavish bashing elsewhere.

 

[majormajor]

It's actually Seattle that is getting ripped off here.

McTavish and Vatrano might have been the two worst players on the Ducks this year. And McTavish has a big $7m x 5 contract. I can imagine they'd love to get rid of it, he was a boat anchor this year.

Kappo Kakko is the best player in this deal. I don't know if OP imagined he was a throw-in, but he isn't. Wright has never been very good, but whatever, he's 22, and unlike McTavish not horrendously overpaid.

 

[FiveTacos]

I mean if they think he's a 40% chance he stagnates and ends up a 45 point center, but a 60% chance he becomes a 60 point center, they probably take that bet. Worst case they overpay by a couple million million, but more than likely he's worth it. I think it's a good gamble, the kid has talent.

Except I'm guessing the Ducks have made a similar calculation. So what's gonna make it worth their while? Because at worst they overpay by a couple million. Which is debatable in a league where Coyle will be making 6m until he's 40.

None of this is contradicting my point though, that his recent trajectory has impacted his value.

Maybe, but if a lot of teams are thinking he's a good gamble that they'd be happy to take, then maybe the consensus is he's really not much of a gamble at all. Kind of like if everyone at he horse race bets on the longshot, it'll actually become the favorite.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

For it "not being a death sentence" you're sure trying to convince us that it is and we should be happy to accept a couple of third line players for him and count our lucky stars that there was another GM stupid enough to take him off our hands and pay for the privilege. We've grown tired of it, take your McTavish bashing elsewhere.

I'm hardly bashing McTavish. You only see it that way because you're a ducks fan who thinks Kakko is a third line player.

Except I'm guessing the Ducks have made a similar calculation. So what's gonna make it worth their while? Because at worst they overpay by a couple million. Which is debatable in a league where Coyle will be making 6m until he's 40.

Maybe, it depends on what they value in their centers. They seemed to be okay with moving on from Zegras who was a better offensive talent than McTavish. Maybe there is something they've seen in his game they don't like, that others may have missed, or may not care about as much.

Maybe, but if a lot of teams are thinking he's a good gamble that they'd be happy to take, then maybe the consensus is he's really not much of a gamble at all. Kind of like if everyone at he horse race bets on the longshot, it'll actually become the favorite.

Yeah he could be a good gamble at the right price, but there's more risk there than guys with more consistent upward trajectory.

 

[FiveTacos]

Maybe, it depends on what they value in their centers. They seemed to be okay with moving on from Zegras who was a better offensive talent than McTavish.

Zegras had TWO down years, and was a year away from RFA with arb rights, followed by two years away from UFA. I have a feeling he's gonna end up much more expensive than McTavish for the next 5+ years.

Maybe there is something they've seen in his game they don't like, that others may have missed, or may not care about as much.

All that will happen if they sell McT cheap is they end up joining the many many teams looking for a 2C. In any case of there getting as many inquiries as suggested, odds are that even if they see a problem, they also realize they have a hot property on their hands.

Whereas with Zegras it seemed there was little interest last summer, just like when Rossi was being shopped.

Yeah he could be a good gamble at the right price, but there's more risk there than guys with more consistent upward trajectory.

A young 2C with consistent upward trajectory would best be described as "unavailable".

 

[Gliff]

It's actually Seattle that is getting ripped off here.

McTavish and Vatrano might have been the two worst players on the Ducks this year. And McTavish has a big $7m x 5 contract. I can imagine they'd love to get rid of it, he was a boat anchor this year.

Kappo Kakko is the best player in this deal. I don't know if OP imagined he was a throw-in, but he isn't. Wright has never been very good, but whatever, he's 22, and unlike McTavish not horrendously overpaid.

And 2 years ago Vatrano was one of their best, and last year McT was one of their best.

I can only speak for myself, but the upside of McT bouncing back after missing training camp, and the upside of Vatrano playing better while not dealing with his brother dying mid mid season is way more appealing then 2 3rd liners.

 

[Bobby Ryan Getzlaf]

Yuck... no one wants negative-nancy Wright. At least Mac can shoot the puck and has size...

Maybe Krappo for Vatrano...

Kakko would be an excellent get for Anaheim if they could pull off him for Vatrano. There’s no “maybe” about it. It would be a yes immediately. Of course, Seattle would not do that because it’s a terrible trade for them.

 

[Bobby Ryan Getzlaf]

I’m not sure I’d want to make this trade as a Ducks fan, but I don’t understand why so many Ducks fans are calling Kakko a third liner. His point totals are in line with second line stats and he’s also good defensively. I’d love him on the Ducks, just not at the expense of McT.