Proposal: ANA - SEA

[Static]

Anaheim sends:

Mason Mctavish ($7.00 x 5)
+
Frank Vatrano ($4.57 x 2)

Seattle sends:

Shane Wright (ELC x 1)
+
Kaapo Kakko ($4.53 x 2)

Anaheim gets better defensive players, Seattle gets better offensive players.

I think what could throw the evaluation off is how the league feels about mctavish and how Seattle feels about wright.

Vatrano is an offensive reclamation project after shooting 6%, losing his PP spot, and having his brother die off the ice. He's just two years removed from scoring 37.

 

[Magic Mittens]

Maybe I'm missing something on Wright, but i don't think Anaheim would even do this with just McTavish.

Regardless, I don't see why the Ducks would do this

 

[ctmagic]

McTavish going to Sens. Kraken will trade 7th for EP40

 

[JiggywithGibby]

Anaheim sends:

Mason Mctavish ($7.00 x 5)
+
Frank Vatrano ($4.57 x 2)

Seattle sends:

Shane Wright (ELC x 1)
+
Kaapo Kakko ($4.53 x 2)

Anaheim gets better defensive players, Seattle gets better offensive players.

I think what could throw the evaluation off is how the league feels about mctavish and how Seattle feels about wright.

Vatrano is an offensive reclamation project after shooting 6%, losing his PP spot, and having his brother die off the ice. He's just two years removed from scoring 37.

Wright is a 3C, we just signed Poehling to an extension, Kakko is a decent 3rd line winger, but we are overfull on wingers, you need to be filling holes on the roster if you're trading McTavish and this isn't it.

 

[Static]

I think the next team mctavish plays for (and their fans) are going to be very disappointed.

 

[anezthes]

Anaheim sends:

Mason Mctavish ($7.00 x 5)
+
Frank Vatrano ($4.57 x 2)

Seattle sends:

Shane Wright (ELC x 1)
+
Kaapo Kakko ($4.53 x 2)

No.

 

[Rec T]

Why would Anaheim want to sell at the very bottom of their values? Especially when both, for different but legitimate reasons, are expecting to have a decent bounce back next year.

If one or both don't, 'then' you move on.

 

[Gliff]

I would rather take a chance on a bounceback from either of the Ducks players.

 

[pgfan66]

I would rather take a chance on a bounceback from either of the Ducks players.

I agree. At the same time, I do still believe in the boom potential of those other two. Too big a risk, maybe? But it could work out.

 

[kihei]

Tempting from Seattle's perspective but difficult seeing Anaheim doing this.

 

[Maurice of Orange]

Anaheim sends:

Mason Mctavish ($7.00 x 5)
+
Frank Vatrano ($4.57 x 2)

Seattle sends:

Shane Wright (ELC x 1)
+
Kaapo Kakko ($4.53 x 2)

Anaheim gets better defensive players, Seattle gets better offensive players.

I take this trade all day if I’m Anaheim.

Wright and Kakko’s numbers would certainly improve if they were getting ice time McTavish was getting in Anaheim before this season.

Wright is a 3C, we just signed Poehling to an extension, Kakko is a decent 3rd line winger, but we are overfull on wingers, you need to be filling holes on the roster if you're trading McTavish and this isn't it.

Wright would be a 3C in Anaheim just as he is in Seattle.

Poehling is a good energy forward but isn’t a good finisher the luster on him will wear off pushing him back to the 4th line where he belongs next season.

If Anaheim is trading a center + wing and returning the same positions it’s not creating a hole to begin with as per the original proposal.

 

[FiveTacos]

I take this trade all day if I’m Anaheim.

Wright and Kakko’s numbers would certainly improve if they were getting ice time McTavish was getting in Anaheim before this season.

You think either guy is going to be a PP regular on Anaheim? Who pray tell are those guys replacing? Carlsson? Cutter? Sennecke? Terry? Kreider? Granlund?

McTavish has flashed 2-3 month stretches at around a point per game on more than one occasion. Still waiting on Wright to show that kind of ceiling.

Wright would be a 3C in Anaheim just as he is in Seattle.

Would he? He would need significant work on his FOs for starters. Poehling isn't a big goal scorer (but then neither is Wright), but he's an elite skater (98th percentile), great forechecker, defensively responsible, and made a lot of sneaky good plays ... they didn't give him a 5m extension because they felt he was a 4C (and they have Washe for that role anyway).

I think you underrate how good Poehling's season was. It was pretty obvious how important he was when you saw how they played against VGK before and after he was hurt.

 

[Dead Coyote]

Tempting, but much like Anaheim fans I'd rather fire our coach and get our GM's head out of his ass and hope that Wright recovers. Kakko is just a solidly good 2/3 tweener who can play up and down the lineup. I highly doubt that McTavish would do any better than Wright with 12-14m of ice time a night.

 

[JiggywithGibby]

I take this trade all day if I’m Anaheim.

Wright and Kakko’s numbers would certainly improve if they were getting ice time McTavish was getting in Anaheim before this season.

Wright would be a 3C in Anaheim just as he is in Seattle.

Poehling is a good energy forward but isn’t a good finisher the luster on him will wear off pushing him back to the 4th line where he belongs next season.

If Anaheim is trading a center + wing and returning the same positions it’s not creating a hole to begin with as per the original proposal.

You assume, incorrectly, that all McTavish will ever be is a 3C that Wright will be. Kakko into Vatrano isn't enough of a sweetener to downgrade McTavish into Wright.

You also, assume incorrectly, that all Poehling will ever be is a 4C, when he has produced at a 3C level for three seasons in a row. Late bloomer, sure, 4C, no.

 

[Vinegar Strokes]

You assume, incorrectly, that all McTavish will ever be is a 3C that Wright will be. Kakko into Vatrano isn't enough of a sweetener to downgrade McTavish into Wright.

You also, assume incorrectly, that all Poehling will ever be is a 4C, when he has produced at a 3C level for three seasons in a row. Late bloomer, sure, 4C, no.

Poehling I completely agree on. I very much doubt McTavish will be a center on a serious team, let alone more than a 3C.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Wright is a 3C, we just signed Poehling to an extension, Kakko is a decent 3rd line winger, but we are overfull on wingers, you need to be filling holes on the roster if you're trading McTavish and this isn't it.

Kakko is better than a 3rd line winger, don't let his counting stats fool you. He's an excellent two way player who was 21st in 5v5 p/60 and 41st in ppg among RWs (>40gp) despite playing in a very low scoring system while being an elite two way player. He led the Kraken in 5v5 p/60 by a significant margin (>300 5v5 mins).

He also led the team in +/- by 5 with +14.

Those numbers put him as a top 6 caliber winger very comfortably.

 

[JiggywithGibby]

Kakko is better than a 3rd line winger, don't let his counting stats fool you. He's an excellent two way player who was 21st in 5v5 p/60 and 41st in ppg among RWs (>40gp) despite playing in a very low scoring system while being an elite two way player. He led the Kraken in 5v5 p/60 by a significant margin (>300 5v5 mins).

View attachment 1249107

He also led the team in +/- by 5 with +14.

Those numbers put him as a top 6 caliber winger very comfortably.

If he is that adept defensively (and this goes for Shame Wright too) why are neither of them playing on the PK at all? Kakko had a good season, he also rocked a career high shooting percentage this season as well. I get it, he's a nice piece, and his 40 points comes with a caveat of across 65 games, but unless he is one hell of a late bloomer, ~50 points is pretty poor for top 6 numbers.

His points/60 are also inflated by the fact that his ice time got seriously cut compared to last season, that number doesn't scale, it appears that 14 minutes a game is his sweet spot.

He's a nice piece, he's not nice enough a piece to use as a McTavish centerpiece.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

If he is that adept defensively (and this goes for Shame Wright too) why are neither of them playing on the PK at all?

Being a great possession player at 5v5 doesn't necessarily mean a player is suited for penalty killing

Kakko had a good season, he also rocked a career high shooting percentage this season as well. I get it, he's a nice piece, and his 40 points comes with a caveat of across 65 games, but unless he is one hell of a late bloomer, ~50 points is pretty poor for top 6 numbers.

50 points would be 35th among RW'ers, that's smack dab in the middle of top 6 production, despite low ice time and playing on a low scoring offensive team.

His points/60 are also inflated by the fact that his ice time got seriously cut compared to last season, that number doesn't scale, it appears that 14 minutes a game is his sweet spot.

Even going back 2 seasons, he's 25th in p/60 among RW's

He's a nice piece, he's not nice enough a piece to use as a McTavish centerpiece.

He had one less point than McTavish in 14 less games, and was a +14 on a lottery team while McTavish was -15 on a playoff team. McTavish was a healthy scratch in the playoffs - his current trajectory is not flattering when you consider his AAV

I don't know if there is a big value gap between the two, aside from the fact that Kakko is on a much cheaper contract.

 

[JiggywithGibby]

Being a great possession player at 5v5 doesn't necessarily mean a player is suited for penalty killing

50 points would be 35th among RW'ers, that's smack dab in the middle of top 6 production, despite low ice time and playing on a low scoring offensive team.

Even going back 2 seasons, he's 25th in p/60 among RW's

He had one less point than McTavish in 14 less games, and was a +14 on a lottery team while McTavish was -15 on a playoff team. McTavish was a healthy scratch in the playoffs - his current trajectory is not flattering when you consider his AAV

I don't know if there is a big value gap between the two, aside from the fact that Kakko is on a much cheaper contract.

You keep citing P/60 as if it scales, it doesn't. You keep citing RW, which he plays as a left shot winger, does that hold up against all wingers, or all forwards? You're cherry picking an awful lot of data here to support your argument. You point out that in one of Kakkos best seasons he almost produced as many points as McTavish in a down year.

How about you let Anaheim fans be worried about McTavish trajectory, eh? He had one off season, Kakko has had multiple of those. He got scratched a couple times? Yeah, so what, he missed camp in a year he had to learn a new system and the team barely got to practice because the schedule was so condensed from the olympics, he may not have climbed his way back into his coaches good graces but he was put behind the 8 ball all season by management not getting his contract done before camp. He'll be fine next season, at which point Anaheim fans will look back on all this and laugh at people trying to convince us that he peaked at 22 years old. You understand how laughable of a take it is to try and convince us he's done already? Player development isn't linear, sometimes players have an off season, they're human, shit happens.

 

[Dead Coyote]

If he is that adept defensively (and this goes for Shame Wright too) why are neither of them playing on the PK at all? Kakko had a good season, he also rocked a career high shooting percentage this season as well. I get it, he's a nice piece, and his 40 points comes with a caveat of across 65 games, but unless he is one hell of a late bloomer, ~50 points is pretty poor for top 6 numbers.

His points/60 are also inflated by the fact that his ice time got seriously cut compared to last season, that number doesn't scale, it appears that 14 minutes a game is his sweet spot.

He's a nice piece, he's not nice enough a piece to use as a McTavish centerpiece.

Our coach chooses to put Dunn and Montour and Stephenson on the PP instead of any shooters whatsoever. All we do is pass it around all year.

I do genuinely think if we had put him with Beniers and Schwartz like we did when we first came here he'd hit 50 or 60 pts fairly consistently. He had 11 pts in 15 games or something around that?

Also I don't think McTavish is a bad player at all and I don't think either team does this deal.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

You keep citing P/60 as if it scales, it doesn't. You keep citing RW, which he plays as a left shot winger, does that hold up against all wingers, or all forwards? You're cherry picking an awful lot of data here to support your argument. You point out that in one of Kakkos best seasons he almost produced as many points as McTavish in a down year.

In 14 less games.

Again, he was 41st in scoring among players in his position. That's top 6 production

How about you let Anaheim fans be worried about McTavish trajectory, eh?

Any team who is potentially acquiring him has the right to worry about his trajectory.

He had one off season,

Was it an off season? He paced for 44 points vs his career average of 48, not really a huge departure.

Kakko has had multiple of those. He got scratched a couple times? Yeah, so what, he missed camp in a year he had to learn a new system and the team barely got to practice because the schedule was so condensed from the olympics, he may not have climbed his way back into his coaches good graces but he was put behind the 8 ball all season by management not getting his contract done before camp.

Missing training camp as an excuse for being scratched in the playoffs 7 months later is a stretch.

He'll be fine next season, at which point Anaheim fans will look back on all this and laugh at people trying to convince us that he peaked at 22 years old. You understand how laughable of a take it is to try and convince us he's done already? Player development isn't linear, sometimes players have an off season, they're human, shit happens.

Nobody is saying he's done, but his trajectory absolutely impacts his value, whether you like it or not. Some young players are able to reverse that trajectory (I think he probably will), while others cannot. The uncertainty of it does hurt his value though. If he was due for a new contract today, do you think he'd get more or less than what he signed for last year?

 

[FiveTacos]

I don't know if there is a big value gap between the two, aside from the fact that Kakko is on a much cheaper contract.

He's also UFA in two years. At which point he'll likely still be cheaper, but only because he really isn't all that offensively impactful. Is he a 2nd liner? Probably not on a good offensive team. Maybe as the 3rd wheel "defensive dude" on a skilled line.

McT's had multiple months better than any single month Kakko has ever managed to pull off, and Kakko has had a couple extra years to show it. It just isn't there.

I mean seriously, MM in a down year still had an offensive year that would be considered pretty decent for KK.

Was it an off season? He paced for 44 points vs his career average of 48, not really a huge departure.

Let's do a fair age comparison though:

age 19 ... MM 43 in 80 ... KK 17 in 48
age 20 ... MM 42 in 64 ... KK 18 in 43
age 21 ... MM 52 in 76 ... KK 40 in 82
age 22 ... MM 41 in 75 ... KK 19 in 61

Interesting that Kakko also had a regression at age 22/23.

And since then KK has had 44 in 79, and 40 in 65. And let's note that until this year, Kakko was playing on far superior offensive teams. Has KK ever had a stretch of 36 games with 33 points? Or 21 in 20? Hell, has he even had glimpses of skill that made anyone think that was at all possible for him?

McTavish has flashed higher upside, and has two additional years of runway lef over KK. Assuming a guy approaching his 25/26 year old season has any remaining.

Look, there's a reason why Kakko is on his second short term deal after his ELC. And sure as F*$% no one ever discussed if he was worth offer sheeting.

 

[Dead Coyote]

And since then KK has had 44 in 79, and 40 in 65. And let's note that until this year, Kakko was playing on far superior offensive teams. Has KK ever had a stretch of 36 games with 33 points? Or 21 in 20? Hell, has he even had glimpses of skill that made anyone think that was at all possible for him?

McTavish has flashed higher upside, and has two additional years of runway lef over KK. Assuming a guy approaching his 25/26 year old season has any remaining.

Look, there's a reason why Kakko is on his second short term deal after his ELC. And sure as F*$% no one ever discussed if he was worth offer sheeting.

Yes, there have been times when Kakko was on a ppg pace in a short sample size.

 

[Phion Keneuf]

I would do it if I was the Ducks. I think Kakko is extremely underrated and wouldn’t be surprised if he ended up being the best player in this deal.

 

[FiveTacos]

Yes, there have been times when Kakko was on a ppg pace in a short sample size.

IMO it has to be more than just a short sample size ... I mean, Fraser Minten managed a point per game for a month. Lots of guys have hot months. You sustain beyond that, you might have something beyond a statistical anomaly.

McTavish at age 22 had a Jan-Apr run of just under a point per game. At 20 he had a run of 21 in 20 games, that went for almost 2 months. Both times he looked not like a 2C, but a low end 1C.

Kakko's best month was 12 in 14 this year at age 25. Before that the best he managed was 12 in 16 last year. Neither outburst sustained.

I don't think it's controversial to say McTavish has shown significantly more upside, at a younger age.