GDT: All things training camp

[LowLefty]

I'd argue that not being complacent with your linemate is actually a good thing for this team. The fact it doesn't come easy means the player has to work harder to make it work.

Isn't that one of the big issues with this group in the playoffs, they don't know how to up their work rate?

Making our top players uncomfortable is good thing imo, it forces them to change from a status quo that is quite frankly not good enough. The proof is in numbers, them being uncomfortable leads to improved performance

Well lets make them all uncomfortable then - you certainly don't want lines that gel or are familiar with each other - that's too easy.
good lord

 

[voyageur]

I think this is view quite overstated and mostly due to the fact they play significantly more minutes then anyone else on the team and in all the prime offensive situations. They are actually among the least efficient duos we run.

They score at a 2.67 vs an expected goals per 60 of 2.52.

Fly and Mark - Actual 3.52 vs expected of 3.33

Perfetti and Name Actual 3.68 vs expected of 2.68

Perfetti and KC actual 4.93 vs expected of 3.56

So in actuality they are much more efficient at not only generating chances but scoring actual goals away from each other.

This would dispute the notion that they read off of each other in the way few do. They tend to read better off of other players on the team.

Can you break any of those stats down? month by month or in blocks. I'd still like to know how KC had 17 goals in 25 games with Scheif?

By calculation after the original 5 game 12 goal streak for 27-55-13, they scored 4 goals in 15 games? Is that correct?

 

[surixon]

Well lets make them all uncomfortable then - you certainly don't want line that gel or are familiar with each other - that's too easy.
good lord

If this so called familiarity actually lead to superior results it would be one thing but it leads to significantly worse results. So yeah I'd happily are them uncomfortable for any gains.

This team has stunk up the joint in the playoffs since 2017. Status quo shouldn't be on the table and if the players are serious about doing everything they can then they should be open to pretty much anything at this point.

Can you break any of those stats down? month by month or in blocks. I'd still like to know how KC had 17 goals in 25 games with Scheif?

By calculation after the original 5 game 12 goal streak for 27-55-13, they scored 4 goals in 15 games? Is that correct?

I could but it would take a while. If I have time later this weekend I might take a look.

 

[LowLefty]

If this so called familiarity actually lead to superior results it would be one thing but it leads to significantly worse results. So yeah I'd happily are them uncomfortable for any gains.

This team has stunk up the joint in the playoffs since 2017. Status quo shouldn't be on the table and if the players are serious about doing everything they can then they should be open to pretty much anything at this point.

No one said anything about status quo
The results we are seeing in the PO's and at times during the reg season, are due to a lot of issues - mostly related to compete.

My point was simply this - I'd like to see how Arniel does with these two defensively - he mentioned that he wants to get the guys going on D - all of them.
Will it go anywhere - IDK - but as I posted, I'd like to see where it goes rather than have this debate for the zillionth time.

 

[Buffdog]

Trying solve for the maximization of happiness of two guys who make a combined $16 million a year is definitely... one way to run an NHL franchise.

Pissing off your best players which drives them to want to play elsewhere is another way of running an NHL franchise

 

[voyageur]

If this so called familiarity actually lead to superior results it would be one thing but it leads to significantly worse results. So yeah I'd happily are them uncomfortable for any gains.

This team has stunk up the joint in the playoffs since 2017. Status quo shouldn't be on the table and if the players are serious about doing everything they can then they should be open to pretty much anything at this point.



I could but it would take a while. If I have time later this weekend I might take a look.

There may be PP goals in that span I am too lazy to check, but it does kind of seem like a streaky line, that caught fire. And that's where averages get thrown out. Albeit the defensive impact is still pretty strong, no matter how you cut it.

From Hockey Reference I can piece out 5 goals against Kings (1 EN), 3 goals against Avs (1 EN), 1 goal against Canadiens, in loss, 2 goals against Wings, 2 goals against Bruins, so conceivably one player wasn't on the ice for one of those goals. Or empty net goals don't count as 5-5. All ES though. And then, yeah, 4/5 goals in the next 15 games, which is hardly world beating for a top line.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

A agree on the bold - which is where I was going with my post.
I guess you could say Ehlers takes him by surprise - which is pretty much the opposite of reading off each other.

Yes, it is. But it is effective.

 

[DRW204]

Can you break any of those stats down? month by month or in blocks. I'd still like to know how KC had 17 goals in 25 games with Scheif?

By calculation after the original 5 game 12 goal streak for 27-55-13, they scored 4 goals in 15 games? Is that correct?

the scheifele splits and game log at 5v5 really are something for 2023

for the year: +14 in 1192 mins.
with KC+w/o Ehlers: -3 in 641 mins (50%+ of total TOI).

essentially, the only month the top line really performed like some of these other teams' top lines was December at a +13, but they're kind of a marginal line between that.

Scheifele (essentially top line's) goal-differential by month

oct: -1
nov: +1
dec: +13
jan: +2
feb: -2
mar: +2
apr: -1

a +13 is unreasonable to expect each month. id probably look at some other top-line Cs though to see the trend.

Mackinnon for example was a +35 on the year, he had one month negative (-1 in Oct) the rest range from +3 to +12. Obviously Mackinnon is a superior player to Scheifele, but id say their goaltending is far worse than ours which will hurt, but that's just 1 example

but really they shouldn't even be essentially even considering they have Connor Hellebuyck back-stopping them. they're either bad offensively (i don't think so), or bad defensively (i think so).

 

[KingBogo]

The 2 players joined at the hip on this team is Scheifele and Helly as neither would sign with the other and they signed identical contracts. The #1 goalie and the #1 center knew they needed each other. Has it ever actually been reported that Scheifele has actually said publicly who he wants as his wingers?

 

[WolfHouse]

I think the Jets expected him to be in the battle for a final roster spot. The two way suggests he wasn't guaranteed, as the Jets had 7 d-men signed to NHL contracts. By the sounds of Arniel's interview Stanley was the front runner for the 6 d spot. Ville I think still had to prove himself. Fleury was insurance on these guys, maybe somebody the team wanted to start with Salomonsson, since the Moose depth is suspect on the left side, but he would be the only guy called up on the left side in a PK role, if injury dictated the need.

He's mostly been a 7/8 for the last few years of his career. Probably where he was to start this year.

Next man up, that's a hockey tradition.

Yes. Waiver scrap

 

[Buffdog]

The 2 players joined at the hip on this team is Scheifele and Helly as neither would sign with the other and they signed identical contracts. The #1 goalie and the #1 center knew they needed each other. Has it ever actually been reported that Scheifele has actually said publicly who he wants as his wingers?

Exactly...

No Schief + Conner playing together = no Schief
No Schief = no Helle
No Schief and no Helle = non-competitive team
Non-competitive team = goodbye Ehlers and Connor

 

[voyageur]

Yes. Waiver scrap

In some parts that is called depth

 

[DRW204]

just to see what happened w/ the rest of the team by month to see some relativity. probably better to look at this per-60

 

[Jack7222]

Possibly, but then they turn around and have no issue with Gus at 4C and he's even slower lol.

I think the org doesn't care if their 4C makes it all the way into the offensive zone

 

[voyageur]

the scheifele splits and game log at 5v5 really are something for 2023

for the year: +14 in 1192 mins.
with KC+w/o Ehlers: -3 in 641 mins (50%+ of total TOI).

essentially, the only month the top line really performed like some of these other teams' top lines was December at a +13, but they're kind of a marginal line between that.

Scheifele (essentially top line's) goal-differential by month

oct: -1
nov: +1
dec: +13
jan: +2
feb: -2
mar: +2
apr: -1

a +13 is unreasonable to expect each month.

but really they shouldn't even be essentially even considering they have Connor Hellebuyck back-stopping them. they're either bad offensively (i don't think so), or bad defensively (i think so).

I mean that's a plus regardless of December, so they aren't terrible either. Take away the -3 with Namestnikov and it's even again. Honestly if KC and Scheif break even, or are marginally in the plus (15% better, with a healthy Vilardi), with 15% improvement on the PP, the numbers wouldn't look too bad. I think it's a little bit of politicking. Definitely had a hot streak with Ehlers, but KC was headed towards a 50 goal season before his injury. That's not a watermark every team has either from their top line, which was struggling on the PP.

I am going to put myself on the optimistic side, because even with that analytical data, I think there's potential for KC/Scheif to be positives with any of Vilardi, Ehlers, or Perfetti, and the Jets have another layer of depth this year in Lambert, who should move up the lineup before Iafallo.

 

[Jack7222]

The 2 players joined at the hip on this team is Scheifele and Helly as neither would sign with the other and they signed identical contracts. The #1 goalie and the #1 center knew they needed each other. Has it ever actually been reported that Scheifele has actually said publicly who he wants as his wingers?

I mean if it's not that then i guess we're looking for carbon monoxide leaks in the coaching office..

 

[DRW204]

I mean that's a plus regardless of December, so they aren't terrible either. Take away the -3 with Namestnikov and it's even again. Honestly if KC and Scheif break even, or are marginally in the plus (15% better, with a healthy Vilardi), with 15% improvement on the PP, the numbers wouldn't look too bad. I think it's a little bit of politicking. Definitely had a hot streak with Ehlers, but KC was headed towards a 50 goal season before his injury. That's not a watermark every team has either from their top line, which was struggling on the PP.

it's a +1 at 5v5 outside of Dec. if you take away some of other top line C's best months what do they look like? and did they have a combo of hellebuyck+brossoit back-stopping them?

ok kc was heading toward a 50 goal season 20 games in, great individual accomplishment for sure and was still hovering around even to negative at 5v5. there were 4 players who hit 50 goals this year, they were +40, +35, +28, and +25 this past season. so his linemate combo was so poor and gave up so many goals, where although he was headed toward 50 (40 post inj), it's also trending for his line to net 0. & again this is w/ the best goaltending tandem in the league behind them.

 

[voyageur]

it's a +1 at 5v5 outside of Dec. if you take away some of other top line C's best months what do they look like? and did they have a combo of hellebuyck+brossoit back-stopping them?

ok kc was heading toward a 50 goal season 20 games in, great individual accomplishment for sure and was still hovering around even to negative at 5v5. there were 4 players who hit 50 goals this year, they were +40, +35, +28, and +25 this past season. KCs best actual individual season came primarily away from scheifele at 5v5 gameplay

I guess that's one way to look at it. You still have a power line that is going to draw other teams best defensive lines and best d pairings, on the road, 41 games a year. If they break even and every other line wins its matchups, that's a net positive team. If the PP improves, the success rate can go even higher. Other than that 5 game stretch, Ehlers is in the mediocre territory with Scheif too? I'd like to think that all previous stats against that combo have the influence of Wheeler on them, and that Vilardi has the potential to be what Wheeler was in his prime here. That's my blind optimism/kool aid drinking p.o.v

 

[bumblebeeman]

I guess that's one way to look at it. You still have a power line that is going to draw other teams best defensive lines and best d pairings, on the road, 41 games a year. If they break even and every other line wins its matchups, that's a net positive team. If the PP improves, the success rate can go even higher. Other than that 5 game stretch, Ehlers is in the mediocre territory with Scheif too? I'd like to think that all previous stats against that combo have the influence of Wheeler on them, and that Vilardi has the potential to be what Wheeler was in his prime here. That's my blind optimism/kool aid drinking p.o.v

They draw other teams best defensive lines and still are by far the Jets leading scorers.

 

[KingBogo]

I mean if it's not that then i guess we're looking for carbon monoxide leaks in the coaching office..

IMO most top players are open to playing with other top players and while they may have opinions they will play in the lineup the coach calls.

 

[B33R LEAGUE]

Mid Season Form Fleury...

The guy just loves playing the Jets.

 

[cneely]

What does that look like in actual goals across the season though?

We've been through the "absolute vs relative difference" ad nauseum, so I won't rehash it

I'll leave it by sating that if we won a game 6-5 (or lost 6-5), nobody would be talking about one team dominating and one team getting crushed... yet that's about the largest margin that we talk about with regards to all these stats

You perceive GF% of 55% vs a GF% of 45% as being some huge difference, but in reality it's equivalent to losing a game 6-5 vs winning one 6-5. Both were competitive games and nobody got "caved"

I’ll flip you 100 coins. If it’s heads i get 55. If it’s tails, you get 45. We can do it as long as you want.

I'm so sick of hearing about Scheifele/Connor analytics ... there's 6 players on the ice. What is 55/81 analytics with Pionk on the ice and with Morrissey on the ice ... the same?
Correct me if I'm wrong but don't most top teams play their #1 goal scorer with their #1 center?
As far as I'm concern analytics don't prove anything. Remember analytics say faceoffs aren't important but how many times do you see a last minute goal by winning a faceoff or a PP goal off a faceoff or OT.
Scheifele/Connor had 14 GWG last year that 27% of the Jets wins. Jets lost only 24 games last year so by analytics 15 of the Jets losses were because of Scheifele/Connor right?
Eye test will always been analytics.

Analytics are literally stats. They certainly don’t prove anything. They just tell you what has happened.

 

[cneely]

55 / 81 are both extremely talented players that can do a lot of things they might not be showing us at this point.
It's no secret they don't like the defense like the offense - but if they wanted to be better defensively, they certainly could.
Lowry can't make that same step on the offensive side - doesn't have the talent.

I don’t agree with that at all. If he wanted to forgo his defensive assignments and cheat on offense, his offensive numbers would be way better.

 

[cneely]

Pissing off your best players which drives them to want to play elsewhere is another way of running an NHL franchise

If he wants to get his 80 points a year regardless of whether he wins or not, do you want him here?

Easy for me to say, I’m a Bruins fan, but it’s an easy f no from me.

They draw other teams best defensive lines and still are by far the Jets leading scorers.

And yet give up far more chances than they create.

 

[Buffdog]

I’ll flip you 100 coins. If it’s heads i get 55. If it’s tails, you get 45. We can do it as long as you want.


Analytics are literally stats. They certainly don’t prove anything. They just tell you what has happened.

How is flipping coins a comparison with playing hockey? The nicest thing I can say about that comparison is that it's a false equivalent.

If he wants to get his 80 points a year regardless of whether he wins or not, do you want him here?

Easy for me to say, I’m a Bruins fan, but it’s an easy f no from me.


And yet give up far more chances than they create.

Yes, I would like plenty of 80 point players please. And you're making it sound like the Jets didn't finish 4th overall last year or something