Rumor: All Purpose Trade Proposals, Speculation and Rumours - 2023/24

[Mortimer Snerd]

Those teams that were able to successfully tank also had the advantage of being in desirable markets, so they were able to add good complimentary pieces through free agency and the players wanted to stay after their initial 7 year team control when a player can choose where they wanted to play. Look at the teams that tanked in less desirable markets. They haven't faired quite as well.

Not my argument. I'm not proposing a tank.

But, just out of curiosity, what teams have won the Cup without some (several?) top 5 picks playing key roles?

 

[KingBogo]

Not my argument. I'm not proposing a tank.

But, just out of curiosity, what teams have won the Cup without some (several?) top 5 picks playing key roles?

Most have a top 5 pick, but not always their own. Vegas has 2 on their roster and they throw away draft picks like candy. Players just line up to play there.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Most have a top 5 pick, but not always their own. Vegas has 2 on their roster and they throw away draft picks like candy. Players just line up to play there.

I haven't done the leg work, but my guess would be at least 2, maybe 3 or 4 per Cup team.

Those high picks don't guarantee winning but it is tough to win without them. Think I will dig into this a bit when I have some time.

 

[surixon]

Not my argument. I'm not proposing a tank.

But, just out of curiosity, what teams have won the Cup without some (several?) top 5 picks playing key roles?

The Blues and Vegas are the only ones I can think of.

I think every other cup team had has had numerous top draft picks.

 

[Eyeseeing]

I don't know how I feel about this. Chevy has shown to be a masterful negotiator and not prone to do wild things to damage the org long term.

I would be open to making him President of Hockey Ops, be a key in negotiating but have a new GM to give unique input and push him out of his comfort zone a bit.

Chipman is Not giving up that role

 

[Channelcat]

The Blues and Vegas are the only ones I can think of.

I think every other cup team had has had numerous top draft picks.

That Blues team was stacked with 1st rd picks including 3 top 5.

 

[surixon]

That Blues team was stacked with 1st rd picks including 3 top 5.

Sorry, I meant drafted by them. I can only think of Pietro as a homegrown top 5.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Sorry, I meant drafted by them. I can only think of Pietro as a homegrown top 5.

I think that homegrown or not isn't relevant. That is possibly another interesting discussion.

 

[Buffdog]

I think that homegrown or not isn't relevant. That is possibly another interesting discussion.

I believe that Nino is the highest pick the Jets have right now (5OA by NYI in 2010)

I've wondered if assembling a team of former high draft picks whose careers didn't quite pan out would be a way of being competitive. Guys like Kakko and Kotkaniemi (for instance) haven't lived up to their billings but if you could get them cheap enough (in both trade capital and salary)?

Florida just did well with with Bennet and Reinhart (though his stock never fell as far)

You'd have to navigate around guys like Poolparty, Yakupov, etc who were legit busts

 

[surixon]

I believe that Nino is the highest pick the Jets have right now (5OA by NYI in 2010)

I've wondered if assembling a team of former high draft picks whose careers didn't quite pan out would be a way of being competitive. Guys like Kakko and Kotkaniemi (for instance) haven't lived up to their billings but if you could get them cheap enough (in both trade capital and salary)?

Florida just did well with with Bennet and Reinhart (though his stock never fell as far)

You'd have to navigate around guys like Poolparty, Yakupov, etc who were legit busts

The reclamation route is an interesting idea. It seems to be very hit and miss but when you hit it really sets you up ala Florida.

That might be something Chevy needs to look into more.

 

[surixon]

I think that homegrown or not isn't relevant. That is possibly another interesting discussion.

I just look at it that most teams aren't able to trade for top 5 draft picks easily due to numerous factors.

We've traded for two in twelve years and one we had to give up a former top 5 pick for. The other is well into twilight years.

My guess for most the only way to get them is to draft them.

 

[JetsWillFly4Ever]

Of course you need luck with a tanking strategy..but you also need luck with every strategy.

Our current strategy seems to be: be decent and have Hellebuyck go on a generational run, guess what. If he does go on that run at the right time, that is also going to take luck.

You also need to be lucky with injuries, etc.

There is a lot of luck in NHL roster building and competition. I think the best shot for a team like the Jets who have no chance of bringing in elite players via free agency and trade, is to get as many bullets in the draft as possible and put everything into developing them.

 

[tbcwpg]

Of course you need luck with a tanking strategy..but you also need luck with every strategy.

Our current strategy seems to be: be decent and have Hellebuyck go on a generational run, guess what. If he does go on that run at the right time, that is also going to take luck.

You also need to be lucky with injuries, etc.

There is a lot of luck in NHL roster building and competition. I think the best shot for a team like the Jets who have no chance of bringing in elite players via free agency and trade, is to get as many bullets in the draft as possible and put everything into developing them.

There's more variables than just tanking and hoping for the best. There's a reason why rebuilds in some markets like Buffalo, Ottawa and Columbus take longer than ones in places like LA, Chicago or Florida.

 

[ps241]

Seems like the plan is to keep making the playoffs and hope Helle can carry the team to a cup. Imo as long as he's a top goalie the Jets are contenders

Seems like it's to make the playoffs each season and maybe make a run one or two of those times. I don't think they believe the fan support is there attendance wise for a longer term rebuild and I think last year kind of proved that.

We were in the regular season finishing 4th overall in points, and leading the league in goals against. No doubt we shit the bed in the playoffs, but the organization is not going to just throw away last regular season's success. The organization has invested heavily in its current core and will ride them for a few years yet. Ideally we make room for our most promising prospects and see if they can be an upgrade over some of our more expensive bottom of the lineup players. This would also help free up cap space over the next couple years to hopefully add some talent. Chevy might have a move or 2 yet before the start of the season. Either way the plan will be to be as competitive as possible.

So all three quotes would summarize what I think might be the plan which is, notwithstanding this past playoffs , as per Chipman we are trying to compete every season to make the playoffs. We usually do buy at the TD when we are in the playoffs but Chevy has only really gone for it once which was this year.

My view point is the enemy of the plan is “expensive” rentals for just one playoff. I get why we did it last playoff but we need to be more measured as we move forward IMO.

I am fine trading high draft picks but I want them to have players with term coming back. I would prefer we didn’t rent at the TD to fill top spots, we should trade and draft to fill holes then rent at the deadline for depth with 3rd or 4th round capital.

I also am not a huge fan referencing Boston. Yes they have made the playoffs 8 or 9 years in a row, yes they have seamlessly transitioned from the Chara era, to the Bergeron era, to the Pasta McAvoy era but they are doing allot of that with trades and free agency that would not be available to the Jets.

Love it or hate it the Jets “core” will always be fueled by their draft results. That is the pain point of being in this market. We will live and die by it.

To be clear I am not a fan of full rebuilds. Just look at Anaheim and what a f***ing mess that is 6 seasons into the rebuild. This market would not survive that level of suckage for that long.

What you need is the storm of bad events such as an extreme injury year to tank and get that elite player ala the Avs when they got Makar. You then rebound back but have that franchise alternating talent. But that can't be planned for.

This is my dream scenario and you are right it is “long shot bad luck” followed by ‘long shot good luck.” Why do I feel like I am hangin out at 7ev, buying a pack of smokes and spending my rent money on lottery tickets.

Of Course the only realistic way is to start getting more lucky on the occasional draft pick but that goes for any team that is on all the no move no trade lists.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I believe that Nino is the highest pick the Jets have right now (5OA by NYI in 2010)

I've wondered if assembling a team of former high draft picks whose careers didn't quite pan out would be a way of being competitive. Guys like Kakko and Kotkaniemi (for instance) haven't lived up to their billings but if you could get them cheap enough (in both trade capital and salary)?

Florida just did well with with Bennet and Reinhart (though his stock never fell as far)

You'd have to navigate around guys like Poolparty, Yakupov, etc who were legit busts

There might be some bargains out there. I don't think you could build the core of a team that way though. Maybe some good infill talent. I wonder how you go about reclaiming disappointing careers?

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I just look at it that most teams aren't able to trade for top 5 draft picks easily due to numerous factors.

We've traded for two in twelve years and one we had to give up a former top 5 pick for. The other is well into twilight years.

My guess for most the only way to get them is to draft them.

Sure. But that is entirely beside the point. The question is whether those high picks are a necessity or not and how many are normally required. Vegas has been able to get them by being willing to throw almost unlimited futures assets at them and also through FA and TD. But that doesn't say they were not necessary.

 

[Buffdog]

So all three quotes would summarize what I think might be the plan which is, notwithstanding this past playoffs , as per Chipman we are trying to compete every season to make the playoffs. We usually do buy at the TD when we are in the playoffs but Chevy has only really gone for it once which was this year.

My view point is the enemy of the plan is “expensive” rentals for just one playoff. I get why we did it last playoff but we need to be more measured as we move forward IMO.

I am fine trading high draft picks but I want them to have players with term coming back. I would prefer we didn’t rent at the TD to fill top spots, we should trade and draft to fill holes then rent at the deadline for depth with 3rd or 4th round capital.

I also am not a huge fan referencing Boston. Yes they have made the playoffs 8 or 9 years in a row, yes they have seamlessly transitioned from the Chara era, to the Bergeron era, to the Pasta McAvoy era but they are doing allot of that with trades and free agency that would not be available to the Jets.

Love it or hate it the Jets “core” will always be fueled by their draft results. That is the pain point of being in this market. We will live and die by it.

To be clear I am not a fan of full rebuilds. Just look at Anaheim and what a f***ing mess that is 6 seasons into the rebuild. This market would not survive that level of suckage for that long.




This is my dream scenario and you are right it is “long shot bad luck” followed by ‘long shot good luck.” Why do I feel like I am hangin out at 7ev, buying a pack of smokes and spending my rent money on lottery tickets.

Of Course the only realistic way is to start getting more lucky on the occasional draft pick but that goes for any team that is on all the no move no trade lists.

Great post as usual @ps241

Sometimes I wonder what the org has as their goals, and whether or not it lines up with a majority or a minority of fans

Winning the cup should always be the ultimate goal, but if tanking for multiple seasons is seen as the way of doing it, I think that path conflicts with too many of the org's secondary goals

If I had to guess, I'd say that in order from lowest/easiest achievable goals on up, it might look like this:

1. Ice a team that is competitive and entertainjng night in and night out
2. Make playoffs
3. Make deep run into playoffs
4. Win cup

At the end of the day, only one team can win the cup. 4 teams can make a deep run. 8 teams can win a round. 16 teams can make the playoffs. Maybe 20 teams can be competitive every night

TNSE may see it as perilous to take a "cup or bust" mentality, since being non-competitive for long enough to gather high picks and hope they pan out as their core may make the product unwatchable (to casual fans) and therefore unsustainable financially

Like a lot of you, I don't see a path to the cup with the players and prospects that we currently have outside of a "helle beastmode + all the stars align" playoff run, but I'm OK with that. I'd rather take perpetual good seasons and playoff appearances than a period of bottom dwelling just for a *chance* to assemble a team full of top 5 picks who are good enough and want to stick around enough to become cup favorites. Fans will disagree on that, and that's ok

 

[Buffdog]

There might be some bargains out there. I don't think you could build the core of a team that way though. Maybe some good infill talent. I wonder how you go about reclaiming disappointing careers?

Good question. Two guys that I can think of that were high picks who became available were Kirby Dach and Jamie Drysdale. Dach went for 13th and 98th and Drysdale for Cutter Gauthier

So they weren't necessarily "bargains", but young guys with high pedigrees who maybe had some injury issues. I'd maybe throw Vilardi into this category as well.

So you need some capital (McGroarty qualifoes) to get guys like that, which is why I'd be looking hard at trading any 1sts at rhe deadline. If we DO start to slide back into that 10-20 drafting range, maybe it's a path we consider. Who knows

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

So all three quotes would summarize what I think might be the plan which is, notwithstanding this past playoffs , as per Chipman we are trying to compete every season to make the playoffs. We usually do buy at the TD when we are in the playoffs but Chevy has only really gone for it once which was this year.

My view point is the enemy of the plan is “expensive” rentals for just one playoff. I get why we did it last playoff but we need to be more measured as we move forward IMO.

I am fine trading high draft picks but I want them to have players with term coming back. I would prefer we didn’t rent at the TD to fill top spots, we should trade and draft to fill holes then rent at the deadline for depth with 3rd or 4th round capital.

I also am not a huge fan referencing Boston. Yes they have made the playoffs 8 or 9 years in a row, yes they have seamlessly transitioned from the Chara era, to the Bergeron era, to the Pasta McAvoy era but they are doing allot of that with trades and free agency that would not be available to the Jets.

Love it or hate it the Jets “core” will always be fueled by their draft results. That is the pain point of being in this market. We will live and die by it.

To be clear I am not a fan of full rebuilds. Just look at Anaheim and what a f***ing mess that is 6 seasons into the rebuild. This market would not survive that level of suckage for that long.




This is my dream scenario and you are right it is “long shot bad luck” followed by ‘long shot good luck.” Why do I feel like I am hangin out at 7ev, buying a pack of smokes and spending my rent money on lottery tickets.

Of Course the only realistic way is to start getting more lucky on the occasional draft pick but that goes for any team that is on all the no move no trade lists.

Luck, or chance, or variability, call it what you will, is always a requirement. But it is something that eventually evens out. The timescale for that can be incredibly long though.

If we are counting on some luck in the draft we need as many picks as possible and as high as possible to improve the odds.

 

[tbcwpg]

So all three quotes would summarize what I think might be the plan which is, notwithstanding this past playoffs , as per Chipman we are trying to compete every season to make the playoffs. We usually do buy at the TD when we are in the playoffs but Chevy has only really gone for it once which was this year.

My view point is the enemy of the plan is “expensive” rentals for just one playoff. I get why we did it last playoff but we need to be more measured as we move forward IMO.

I am fine trading high draft picks but I want them to have players with term coming back. I would prefer we didn’t rent at the TD to fill top spots, we should trade and draft to fill holes then rent at the deadline for depth with 3rd or 4th round capital.

I also am not a huge fan referencing Boston. Yes they have made the playoffs 8 or 9 years in a row, yes they have seamlessly transitioned from the Chara era, to the Bergeron era, to the Pasta McAvoy era but they are doing allot of that with trades and free agency that would not be available to the Jets.

Love it or hate it the Jets “core” will always be fueled by their draft results. That is the pain point of being in this market. We will live and die by it.

To be clear I am not a fan of full rebuilds. Just look at Anaheim and what a f***ing mess that is 6 seasons into the rebuild. This market would not survive that level of suckage for that long.

They're really stuck between a rock and a hard place here. They can't trade too many picks because they won't be able to go out and replace those lost prospects with FA or trades involving higher end players, but if they go for a strategy of stockpiling those picks, the team will be not be competitive and the financials will tank.

The argument to that is "just have better scouting", which isn't reliable at the age these kids are being drafted at. There's a good reason a lot of these other leagues draft out of college for the most part. A lot can change between being 17/28 and 20/21. Just statistically it's going to be a losing game trying to beat the system and get more out of the 2nd day of the draft than average, and even harder to make those picks into top end talent. We look at the examples like Kucherov or Marchand and say it's possible but I can pull up an article about someone winning the Powerball jackpot and say that's possible too.

 

[WolfHouse]

Good question. Two guys that I can think of that were high picks who became available were Kirby Dach and Jamie Drysdale. Dach went for 13th and 98th and Drysdale for Cutter Gauthier

So they weren't necessarily "bargains", but young guys with high pedigrees who maybe had some injury issues. I'd maybe throw Vilardi into this category as well.

So you need some capital (McGroarty qualifoes) to get guys like that, which is why I'd be looking hard at trading any 1sts at rhe deadline. If we DO start to slide back into that 10-20 drafting range, maybe it's a path we consider. Who knows

I'd say PLD fell into that category... so when you look at the collection of first round bargains we have traded for - its not small... if you include Armia, Stafford, Myers, Lemieux...

I'd hold off on this strategy until we see what Lambert, Chib, Salomondsson have... roster is basically set anyway - unless an Ehlers trade materializes which seems unlikely but Chevy does like to be off the radar until he's not

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Great post as usual @ps241

Sometimes I wonder what the org has as their goals, and whether or not it lines up with a majority or a minority of fans

Winning the cup should always be the ultimate goal, but if tanking for multiple seasons is seen as the way of doing it, I think that path conflicts with too many of the org's secondary goals

If I had to guess, I'd say that in order from lowest/easiest achievable goals on up, it might look like this:

1. Ice a team that is competitive and entertainjng night in and night out
2. Make playoffs
3. Make deep run into playoffs
4. Win cup

At the end of the day, only one team can win the cup. 4 teams can make a deep run. 8 teams can win a round. 16 teams can make the playoffs. Maybe 20 teams can be competitive every night

TNSE may see it as perilous to take a "cup or bust" mentality, since being non-competitive for long enough to gather high picks and hope they pan out as their core may make the product unwatchable (to casual fans) and therefore unsustainable financially

Like a lot of you, I don't see a path to the cup with the players and prospects that we currently have outside of a "helle beastmode + all the stars align" playoff run, but I'm OK with that. I'd rather take perpetual good seasons and playoff appearances than a period of bottom dwelling just for a *chance* to assemble a team full of top 5 picks who are good enough and want to stick around enough to become cup favorites. Fans will disagree on that, and that's ok

The part I have a problem with is, "I don't see a path to the cup with the players and prospects that we currently have". And I don't really see it with Helle in beastmode for the PO either. Still not quite enough, even with a lot of additional luck.

Until then I was with you. If there is no path to the Cup with the current players, we need different players. I am not in favour of a full on tank, but I wouldn't mind dropping down for a year or two to restock and rebuild.

The current player assets are not even capable of a deep run, much less a Cup. At best we might win a rd. We might continue making the PO but that appears to be the peak. Committed as we are to Scheifele and Helle for the next 7 years, it is hard to see any way of getting better, at least for the next few years. Maybe when those 2 fade we will drop down in the draft and get some draft luck.

Good question. Two guys that I can think of that were high picks who became available were Kirby Dach and Jamie Drysdale. Dach went for 13th and 98th and Drysdale for Cutter Gauthier

So they weren't necessarily "bargains", but young guys with high pedigrees who maybe had some injury issues. I'd maybe throw Vilardi into this category as well.

So you need some capital (McGroarty qualifoes) to get guys like that, which is why I'd be looking hard at trading any 1sts at rhe deadline. If we DO start to slide back into that 10-20 drafting range, maybe it's a path we consider. Who knows

Zegras might be another of those and he might still be available. I don't think Ducks would be ready to sell really low on him but it might not take an arm and a leg either.

 

[MelikeJets]

With current assets no we won't win the cup but adding a top 2 d man and picking up some heavy "grinders" we should be in the running.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

They're really stuck between a rock and a hard place here. They can't trade too many picks because they won't be able to go out and replace those lost prospects with FA or trades involving higher end players, but if they go for a strategy of stockpiling those picks, the team will be not be competitive and the financials will tank.

The argument to that is "just have better scouting", which isn't reliable at the age these kids are being drafted at. There's a good reason a lot of these other leagues draft out of college for the most part. A lot can change between being 17/28 and 20/21. Just statistically it's going to be a losing game trying to beat the system and get more out of the 2nd day of the draft than average, and even harder to make those picks into top end talent. We look at the examples like Kucherov or Marchand and say it's possible but I can pull up an article about someone winning the Powerball jackpot and say that's possible too.

You make some good points. Certainly trying to beat the odds in the draft doesn't hold up to analysis - except for one thing. You don't need to beat it consistently. You just need that luck on your side a couple of times within a short period to equip you for 1 cycle. Then you get a turn of rising above mediocrity and going on a deep run or two and maybe, just maybe even win a Cup.

I question the assumption that the market can't/won't support a team trying to rebuild. Corporate ticket sales need to improve. Those are much less dependent on winning.

But I think another very big factor is expectations. There were several factors contributing to the recent weaker attendance, Covid, inflation, being taken for granted by management. But I think unmet expectations were also a large part of it. When expectations are high, even good results can be disappointing. When they are low, they can be exceeded and even poor results can be perceived as good.

 

[Buffdog]

The part I have a problem with is, "I don't see a path to the cup with the players and prospects that we currently have". And I don't really see it with Helle in beastmode for the PO either. Still not quite enough, even with a lot of additional luck.

Until then I was with you. If there is no path to the Cup with the current players, we need different players. I am not in favour of a full on tank, but I wouldn't mind dropping down for a year or two to restock and rebuild.

The current player assets are not even capable of a deep run, much less a Cup. At best we might win a rd. We might continue making the PO but that appears to be the peak. Committed as we are to Scheifele and Helle for the next 7 years, it is hard to see any way of getting better, at least for the next few years. Maybe when those 2 fade we will drop down in the draft and get some draft luck.



Zegras might be another of those and he might still be available. I don't think Ducks would be ready to sell really low on him but it might not take an arm and a leg either.

So what do you suggest to turn the roster turn-over? From Chipman's comments, full tank isn't an option. Trades are often limited by NTCs. UFAs won't come here, and that's probably a blessing