Prospect Info: All-Purpose Prospect Thread v17.0

[belfour30]

Holy crap....

He was playing college hockey last year. It's not a big deal that he needs seasoning in the A.

And sure, some guys bust after having success in the A. But it's not a forgone conclusion that they'll bust. I'd rather have a prospect do well down there then not.

And it's weird how your shrugging away AHL production while talking up NCAA production.

I'm a stickler for production period, at any level. At the end of the day you win hockey games by putting the puck in the net.

I'm kinda scarred by what happened with the Sox and I'm seeing the same stuff happening with the Hawks. And there is some parallel with Bedard/Robert so far.

Ask anyone on SoxTalk, I saw the fall coming there in 2021....everyone called me a negative nancy and said I was ridiculous. What happened?

It's just obvious that the guys they need to carry the team aren't good enough.

 

[CallMeShaft]

I'm a stickler for production period, at any level. At the end of the day you win hockey games by putting the puck in the net.

I'm kinda scarred by what happened with the Sox and I'm seeing the same stuff happening with the Hawks. And there is some parallel with Bedard/Robert so far.

Ask anyone on SoxTalk, I saw the fall coming there in 2021....everyone called me a negative nancy and said I was ridiculous. What happened?

It's just obvious that the guys they need to carry the team aren't good enough.

Stop comparing this Hawks team to the literal worst team in MLB history. That comparison, especially at this moment in time, is borderline unhinged.

 

[belfour30]

Stop comparing this Hawks team to the literal worst team in MLB history. That comparison, especially at this moment in time, is borderline unhinged.

I called it out during a season in which the Sox won 93 games and the ALC.

I don't even know if the Hawks are going to make the playoffs for the rest of this decade.

Bedard, Lev, Rinzel and Vlasic are good pieces. I just don't see where they're going to get scoring for like 3-5 seasons.

If you want me to make an NHL comparison, it feels like the Sabres.

I trust exactly zero of the forwards in the pipeline right now to be safe as top 6 players. There are guys that could be, if they hit their ceiling but I wouldn't pencil any of them in.

Also, as much as I liked Lev coming out of the draft he's gotta prove he's special in the pros.

 

[CallMeShaft]

I called it out during a season in which the Sox won 93 games and the ALC.

I don't even know if the Hawks are going to make the playoffs for the rest of this decade.

Bedard, Lev, Rinzel and Vlasic are good pieces. I just don't see where they're going to get scoring for like 3-5 seasons.

If you want me to make an NHL comparison, it feels like the Sabres.

Bedard has been a PPG player so far this season. The Hawks are likely getting a top 10 pick in a forward heavy draft. The organization is still a premier destination for a lot of free agents, and they have a shit ton of prospects.

Yeah, I don't know outside of Bedard is a top line forward right now. But I also didn't think Cat would've turned into that player when he was picked in the 2nd round. I sure as hell didn't think that of Hagel after Buffalo didn't bother signing him.

For all we know, someone like Lardis, Kantserov, or Vanacker turn into a PPG winger. I really don't know.

What I do know is they shouldn't be compared to this year's Sox team. I really do not care about what your intuition tells you about the future. I have serious doubts this team, in say 5 years time, will be comparable to the LITERAL WORST MLB TEAM IN HISTORY.

 

[belfour30]

Bedard has been a PPG player so far this season. The Hawks are likely getting a top 10 pick in a forward heavy draft. The organization is still a premier destination for a lot of free agents, and they have a shit ton of prospects.

Yeah, I don't know outside of Bedard is a top line forward right now. But I also didn't think Cat would've turned into that player when he was picked in the 2nd round. I sure as hell didn't think that of Hagel after Buffalo didn't bother signing him.

For all we know, someone like Lardis, Kantserov, or Vanacker turn into a PPG winger. I really don't know.

What I do know is they shouldn't be compared to this year's Sox team. I really do not care about what your intuition tells you about the future. I have serious doubts this team, in say 5 years time, will be comparable to the LITERAL WORST MLB TEAM IN HISTORY.

I'm not comparing in terms of oh, the Hawks will be the worst team in league history. I'm talking about failed rebuilds.

You want me to talk about the Sabres instead? I can go there.

 

[CallMeShaft]

I'm not comparing in terms of oh, the Hawks will be the worst team in league history. I'm talking about failed rebuilds.

You want me to talk about the Sabres instead? I can go there.

Every single team in this league currently in a rebuild, don't know whether it'll be successful or not.

I don't know what to tell you if you can't handle the uncertainty that comes from being a fan of a rebuilding team. All I can say is the grass isn't currently any greener in Anaheim, San Jose, Columbus, or Montreal.

 

[belfour30]

Every single team in this league currently in a rebuild, don't know whether it'll be successful or not.

I don't know what to tell you if you can't handle the uncertainty that comes from being a fan of a rebuilding team. All I can say is the grass isn't currently any greener in Anaheim, San Jose, Columbus, or Montreal.

Some of those teams have guys that fit the statistical profile of future stars.
The Hawks have them, but outside of Bedard none are forwards. Doesn't mean some guys can't emerge.

I'm fine being patient but anyone expecting them to turn this around in 3 years is going to be disappointed.

I'm not claiming that I'm even good at player eval. Look at my track record lol. Was high on K. Dach and Boqvist and thought Hagel was a 3rd liner.

This is just one fan's opinion, right now.

 

[CallMeShaft]

Some of those teams have guys that fit the statistical profile of future stars.

And the Hawks don't?!?

I do like what Anaheim has done, but they might be the only ones I might take over the Hawks. Columbus lacks truly elite gamebreakers (Fantilli and a potentially healthy Lindstrom are nice, but neither scream "top 10" center to me); Columbus also doesn't strike me as a place that free agents will flock to, nor a place players will want to re-sign with. Montreal lacks an elite 1C, with Suzuki merely being good. They also lack a true #1D for the future, and no, I don't think tiny Lane Hutson will be that guy. San Jose is lacking big time on D, with basically just Dickinson as a potential top 4 guy; not to mention how much Will Smith has struggled in the NHL this year despite him being lauded as a high end prospect.

Hawks have Bedard, an elite (potentially generational) 1C and Vlasic, a guy The Athletic claimed last season was the 2nd best shutdown defender in the entire league. The Hawks have two recent top 10 D picks marinating in the AHL. Another D putting up huge numbers in the NCAA. And, those previous players included, a whopping 8 first round picks in the last 3 drafts, with 2 more firsts coming next year. The Hawks have drafted more in the first round these last few years than any other organization in decades.

Calm your ass down. Again, you are showing signs that you can't handle being a fan of a rebuilding team. That's on you, not on the team.

 

[belfour30]

If Quinn Hughes can do it so can Hutson.

I don't think it's worth arguing any further. If guys emerge from this group that's great but I'm not counting on it.

 

[Giovi]

If Quinn Hughes can do it so can Hutson.

Why do you constantly view prospects on other teams, whose careers could go either way, as hitting their ceiling, while viewing Hawk prospects as not? Is this shtick, or are you really still just that negative?

 

[belfour30]

Why do you constantly view prospects on other teams, whose careers could go either way, as hitting their ceiling, while viewing Hawk prospects as not? Is this shtick, or are you really still just that negative?

Because they're producing at the lower levels and the Hawks forwards aren't?

Also I do kinda lean on Bader a little bit to get an idea of the likelihood of a guy emerging. I think he has good shit.

 

[CallMeShaft]

Because they're producing at the lower levels and the Hawks forwards aren't?

Also I do kinda lean on Bader a little bit to get an idea of the likelihood of a guy emerging. I think he has good shit.

https://x.com/i/web/status/1809275023636722010

We're 2nd according to Bader's model back in July. 1st if you don't include goaltending.

 

[Giovi]

Because they're producing at the lower levels and the Hawks forwards aren't?

Also I do kinda lean on Bader a little bit to get an idea of the likelihood of a guy emerging. I think he has good shit.

Nazar is producing, yet you expect the worst from him.

Bedard is producing in the NHL, yet you constantly shit on him.

 

[belfour30]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1809275023636722010

We're 2nd according to Bader's model back in July. 1st if you don't include goaltending.

They're 3rd after the Askarov trade

 

[Giovi]

They're 3rd after the Askarov trade

You're not making the point you think you are.

 

[belfour30]

Nazar is producing, yet you expect the worst from him.

Bedard is producing in the NHL, yet you constantly shit on him.

Bedard was compared to generational talents. I'm not sure he's as good as Matthews or Jack Hughes. Blame the hype machine.

And yes, I'm aware Bedard is light years ahead of Hughes first two seasons.

It's the skating.

 

[CallMeShaft]

And while I don't like Bader much and certainly have my disagreements with him on Nazar (who his model doesn't like because Frank had to be selfish and get his hip fixed), but his model predicts that BOTH Lev and Korchinski are likely to become stars in the NHL.

https://x.com/i/web/status/1806832277848240592

https://x.com/i/web/status/1841495064402645163

If that is indeed the case, that'd be Bedard, Lev, and KK as future stars, with a lot of other pieces that are still up in the air, including a top 10 pick in next year's draft and Sam Rinzel, who I'm sure will have his star probabilities rise on Bader's model after this season.

 

[belfour30]

And while I don't like Bader much and certainly have my disagreements with him on Nazar (who his model doesn't like because Frank had to be selfish and get his hip fixed), but his model predicts that BOTH Lev and Korchinski are likely to become stars in the NHL.

https://x.com/i/web/status/1806832277848240592

https://x.com/i/web/status/1841495064402645163

If that is indeed the case, that'd be Bedard, Lev, and KK as future stars, with a lot of other pieces that are still up in the air, including a top 10 pick in next year's draft and Sam Rinzel, who I'm sure will have his star probabilities rise on Bader's model after this season.

I'm not complaining about the defensemen. I'm complaining about the forwards.

 

[CallMeShaft]

Bedard was compared to generational talents. I'm not sure he's as good as Matthews or Jack Hughes. Blame the hype machine.

And yes, I'm aware Bedard is light years ahead of Hughes first two seasons.

It's the skating.

Bedard literally has a higher PPG than Jack Hughes has right now, during this season, on a considerably worse team.

And even outside of the comparable to Hughes' first two seasons, the seasons leading up to each of them getting drafted, Bedard was far ahead on. Just compare their WJC20 performances.

 

[ClydeLee]

I'm not complaining about the defensemen. I'm complaining about the forwards.

They have no other top 10 drafted forwards.

Noone should expect a forwards out of the top 15 to be looking like a for sure top 6 guy after 1-2 years. Those come with surprises.

Nazar absolutely still does when you consider 2way play

 

[CallMeShaft]

I'm not complaining about the defensemen. I'm complaining about the forwards.

We're all well aware we need more help up front. It's why some of us, myself included, are okay with seeing this team miss out on points this year. Picking up a Misa or Martone would do wonders for the future.

But outside of that, like ClydeLee says above, it's way too early to know how any of these prospects will fare. Unless you're picking a forward in the top 10, you usually have to wait until they're in their early to mid 20s before you get a good idea of what they are capable of.

Not taking today's game into account, Nazar's 4pts in 3 AHL games (a very small sample size, I admit) has his PNHLe at 93 according to the NHL Rank King app.

 

[belfour30]

Bedard literally has a higher PPG than Jack Hughes has right now, during this season, on a considerably worse team.

And even outside of the comparable to Hughes' first two seasons, the seasons leading up to each of them getting drafted, Bedard was far ahead on. Just compare their WJC20 performances.

I feel like Bedard's shot isn't translating. Just a gut. That was what was supposed to make him special.

I have only seen the occasional snipe show, most just end up saved. His first goal this year was the first in a while where he just destroyed a goalie.

He doesn't have the time and space he did in the WHL and it matters because his shot is based on deception rather than velocity.

 

[CallMeShaft]

I feel like Bedard's shot isn't translating. Just a gut. That was what was supposed to make him special.

I have only seen the occasional snipe show, most just end up saved. His first goal this year was the first in a while where he just destroyed a goalie.

He doesn't have the time and space he did in the WHL and it matters because his shot is based on deception rather than velocity.

He managed 22 last year despite missing a month due to injury and constantly being the main focus of the other team's top defensemen. And hee's generated a ton of high danger chances this year.

I said this earlier and I will say it again, calm your ass down about this. You aren't doing us any favors, and you certainly aren't doing yourself any favors worrying this much about the future forward group.

 

[statswatcher]

Bedard was compared to generational talents. I'm not sure he's as good as Matthews or Jack Hughes. Blame the hype machine.

or maybe i blame you and those like you for buying the hype and making it my problem by having to constantly read about how i should be very upset and worried that bedard isn't a one in thousands of picks generational megastar.

 

[belfour30]

He managed 22 last year despite missing a month due to injury and constantly being the main focus of the other team's top defensemen. And hee's generated a ton of high danger chances this year.

I said this earlier and I will say it again, calm your ass down about this. You aren't doing us any favors, and you certainly aren't doing yourself any favors worrying this much about the future forward group.

I have said, Bedard is already a 1st line player and he's going to be very good but I don't see special.

or maybe i blame you and those like you for buying the hype and making it my problem by having to constantly read about how i should be very upset and worried that bedard isn't a one in thousands of picks generational megastar.

Fair, but he's gonna get paid off his ELC like he's a top 10 player in the league and he's not as of right now. He has the rest of this season and next to prove it.