All purpose draft-gripe thread

[Vankiller Whale]

Talent = top scorer now?

What about defenseman? The Dub is notorious for pumping out defenseman. They will probably never outscore some 5'6" guy with realistically 0 NHL upside. What about Dane Fox. Lit up the OHL but he doesn't have that much NHL upside either.

What about goaltenders/two-way forwards?

Except we're not talking about NHL upside, we're talking about how hard it is to play in a certain league. A 20 year old in the CHL may have little to no NHL upside but that doesn't make him any easier to play against. Same way that the AHL is much more difficult than the CHL to play in despite being filled with 30 year olds with no NHL upside either.

And there's no easy way to measure how good a player is defensively. But the point is the same. The quality of a league filled with hundreds of players is barely affected by 5 players from a given draft class drafted from the first round.

It's laughable you are trying to judge the quality of the entire league by the numbers of top scorers that aren't drafted.

I did no such thing.

 

[WTG]

TIL

5'8" Martel 1.59PPG is more talented than 6'0" Provorov 1.02PPG because he scored more points.

Just because some small skilled kid scored a lot of goals in a certain league doesn't make that league more skilled. Just think of the talent that the WHL has in goal/on defense.

Virtanen, Fluery, Reinhart, Provorov, Draisaitl, Merkley, Barzal < Ehlers, Meiers apparently



I don't know what to tell you if you actually think the Q is remotely close skill wise to the WHL.

 

[Vankiller Whale]

TIL

5'8" Martel 1.59PPG is more talented than 6'0" Provorov 1.02PPG because he scored more points.

Never said that

Virtanen, Fluery, Reinhart, Provorov, Draisaitl, Merkley, Barzal < Ehlers, Meiers apparently

Or that.

I don't know what to tell you if you actually think the Q is remotely close skill wise to the WHL.

You could make an argument that isn't a straw man, maybe?

FYI it's not about talent in terms of NHL upside. It's about looking at a player like Provorov, then looking at a player like Nikolas Brouillard or Jeremie Fraser and saying "Even though one of those players is younger and projects much better than the others, when you're looking at how well a player produces against them projectability of the competition doesn't really matter that much."

 

[SillyRabbit]

The NHL Equivalencies for all three leagues are extremely close:

WHL: 0.30
OHL: 0.30
QMJHL: 0.28

You could argue that the WHL and OHL are stronger leagues than the QMJHL and technically be right.

But the magnitude of difference is so small that it doesn't really hold much weight when constructing an argument.

 

[WTG]

Alright....

The WHL is a much harder league to score goals in:

When comparing the top scorers currently in the QMJHL there are 11 players with over 40 goals. Where as in the WHL there are only 7. Also looking at the goaltenders, there are only 7 goaltenders in the QMJHL that are over .900 save percentage. Where as the WHL has 22 goaltenders that have over .900 save percentage.

The influx of talent in goal and on defense that the WHL has makes the WHL a much more difficult league to score goals in. Thus all the numbers from the WHL are deflated compared to the QMJHL which has worse quality of goal tending.

 

[Jimson Hogarth*]

Anyone who watches Dub games and Q games knows the difference in league playing styles.

 

[SillyRabbit]

I agree that the WHL is more difficult to score in than the Q. I don't think anyone would argue that.

You can't compare Virtanen's numbers directly to Ehlers because as mentioned, WHL numbers are generally lower.

However if you compare how they rank vs their peers in say, PPG, you see that Ehlers was 1st in the Q while Jake was ~30th in the WHL.

We agree that differences between the leagues exist but it is not nearly as profound as the difference between Ehlers' offensive ranking in his league compared to Virtanen's offensive ranking in his league.

If Virtanen was a top 5 scorer in the WHL, I could absolutely see an argument comparing his offensive game to the best scorer in the Q. But this is not the case.

 

[WTG]

I agree that the WHL is more difficult to score in than the Q. I don't think anyone would argue that.

You can't compare Virtanen's numbers directly to Ehlers because as mentioned, WHL numbers are generally lower.

However if you compare how they rank vs their peers in say, PPG, you see that Ehlers was 1st in the Q while Jake was ~30th in the WHL.

We agree that differences between the leagues exist but it is not nearly as profound as the difference between Ehlers' offensive ranking in his league compared to Virtanen's offensive ranking in his league.

If Virtanen was a top 5 scorer in the WHL, I could absolutely see an argument comparing his offensive game to the best scorer in the Q. But this is not the case.

No one is denying that either.

This whole thing started because we were comparing Ehlers ES production to Virtanen's and I brought up the fact that WHL is much harder to score in. But Vankiller whale apparently believes that there isn't much of a difference. Where as I think that there is a sizable difference.

Ehlers ES PPG 1.08
Virtanen ES PPG 0.72

Add on top of that WHL is harder to score in plus the ****** QoT and high QoC that Virtanen had to deal with AND the shoulder surgery you can see that maybe the difference isn't so astronomical they overall PPG suggests.

Halifax moose heads were 36.5% on the PP vs the hitmen who were 21.7% on the PP.

 

[Vankiller Whale]

Alright....

The WHL is a much harder league to score goals in:

When comparing the top scorers currently in the QMJHL there are 11 players with over 40 goals. Where as in the WHL there are only 7. Also looking at the goaltenders, there are only 7 goaltenders in the QMJHL that are over .900 save percentage. Where as the WHL has 22 goaltenders that have over .900 save percentage.

The influx of talent in goal and on defense that the WHL has makes the WHL a much more difficult league to score goals in. Thus all the numbers from the WHL are deflated compared to the QMJHL which has worse quality of goal tending.

There are an average 6.6 goals scored per game in the WHL, and 6.8 goals per game in the QMJHL. The OHL is at 6.9.

I.e. it's about 3% easier to score goals in the QMJHL than it is in the WHL based on total goals scored (Which is not really a good measure, but certainly better than looking at the number of 40 goal scorers - In 2014 both leagues had 9 40 goal scorers and in 2013 the WHL had 12 to the Q's 10)

Anyone who watches Dub games and Q games knows the difference in league playing styles.

Well I guess that rules you out since you've already said you find Q games unwatchable.

 

[DadBod]

why even bother arguing about this. It should be obvious to anyone who knows a damn thing about hockey that Ehlers has more skill than JV. But that's almost all he has over him and the last time I checked it take a hell of a lot more than that to make an impact in the NHL.

For all we know Ehlers will turn out as the next Linden Vey, or Sakic. JV could be the next Torres or Malkin. It's all projections at this point, and if you're using projections, JV checks a lot more boxes than Ehlers.

Now I agree having Ehlers skill would be nice, we need that badly. But we also need more size, physicality and speed. Where JV lacks skill he fills about 10 more holes than Ehlers does. I'd be happy with either, for me I'd rather choose the local kid (channeling my inner grapes)

 

[Jyrki21]

Assuming all three CHL leagues draw from a roughly similar hockey population base, there is no inherent reason to think that one league would really be miles better than another unless you're proposing some sort of racialist-style argument that "Good Prairie Boys" are somehow better at hockey than Québécois or something.

And if it's as simple as "they play different systems", well then why wouldn't a QMJHL team simply employ a WHL-style system if it was so superior and just win every year?

Anyway, as an editorial aside, if one league plays a higher-skill game but the NHL favors anti-skill bruising and hence favors that league, all that means is we're losing out as NHL fans.

 

[Drop the Sopel]

Assuming all three CHL leagues draw from a roughly similar hockey population base, there is no inherent reason to think that one league would really be miles better than another unless you're proposing some sort of racialist-style argument that "Good Prairie Boys" are somehow better at hockey than Québécois or something.

And what if some teams/organizations have outstanding coaching and developmental groups in place, while others don't? Coaching at that level plays a major role in development for athletes at that age, in all sports. And it's why some programs are notorious for churning out talent, while others fail.

Isn't it a well known fact very few QMJHL defensemen go on to have successful careers at the NHL level? There must be a reason for this...

 

[Verviticus]

Some people are such Ehlers homers they are trying to convince us the Q is a good hockey league. I personally find it unwatchable.

what on earth connects those two sentences? your opinion on the watchability of the Q is irrelevant, lol

The book isn't out on Virtanen. If he gets accurate shot back like he did in his draft year then I feel Virtanen will be a way better player than Ehlers or Nylander.

how do you think you'd feel if we had drafted one of them instead of virtanen

 

[WTG]

how do you think you'd feel if we had drafted one of them instead of virtanen

I would feel the exact opposite!

Good point though. Maybe I shouldn't say he'll be better that's a bit reaching.

Still. I don't think the difference between the three is that much. Sure Virtanen had 1 meh season but I still feel he has developed in other aspects even though his goal totals have taken a severe setback. If he get's his goalscoring touch back I don't think anyone will really be this upset with Virtanen over Ehlers or Nylander.

Especially from what I've seen in Utica so far is very very very promising. Virtanen and Baertschi are dynamite together.

 

[AstrophysicalJet]

No one is denying that either.

This whole thing started because we were comparing Ehlers ES production to Virtanen's and I brought up the fact that WHL is much harder to score in. But Vankiller whale apparently believes that there isn't much of a difference. Where as I think that there is a sizable difference.

Ehlers ES PPG 1.08
Virtanen ES PPG 0.72

Add on top of that WHL is harder to score in plus the ****** QoT and high QoC that Virtanen had to deal with AND the shoulder surgery you can see that maybe the difference isn't so astronomical they overall PPG suggests.

Halifax moose heads were 36.5% on the PP vs the hitmen who were 21.7% on the PP.

So lets compare two players.

Oliver Bjorkstrand and Ehlers, both from Denmark and both smaller skilled players.

Bjorkstrand a year older, but still.

Who would you take? Do you believe Bjorkstrand is better than Ehlers?
Because Bjork was the top scorer in the Dub?

Or because he has 2 50+ goal seasons in the Dub?

Is Ehlers overrated or Bjorkstrand underrated?

There is no doubt in my mind that Ehlers is the better player over both Bjork and Jake.

And I think you forget to mention, that what was so impressive with Ehlers, was the fact that he was contributing to a ridiculous amount of his teams goals.
He was the main engine on the team this year, whereas alot on this board thought he would just be a product of Drouin.

Also, the moose were 36.5% on the PP, because of Ehlers.

I have not written of Virts at all! Not even close, but as it stands now, only homerism could be at fault for denying that he has been surpassed by several players.

 

[The Jesus*]

Nylander went into the AHL and put up near ppg numbers. Virtanen has, like, 1 point in 4 games? Not really looking like much of an offensive threat at all?

"Not looking out of place" shouldn't be good enough. Virtanen has to start producing. Put the puck in the net and it'll shut everyone up.

 

[racerjoe]

Nylander went into the AHL and put up near ppg numbers. Virtanen has, like, 1 point in 4 games? Not really looking like much of an offensive threat at all?

"Not looking out of place" shouldn't be good enough. Virtanen has to start producing. Put the puck in the net and it'll shut everyone up.

Well, one is playing there first games in playoffs, in the third round. The other put up 3 assists in five games. One started in an energy role one playing top six minutes.

It's not exactly a easy comparison.

In the draft I wanted ehlers, nylander Virtanen, Ritchie at six. Having said that some of these posts are not taking in all aspects. Would you rather have a guy putting up 20 more points, but not a lot else or a guy who brings a physical dimension. All I am saying is it's not a straight comparison.

 

[arsmaster*]

How could one say that he's not been a "threat" offensively. He's getting chances. That's what a threat is.

He's one of the more dangerous Comets IMO. He's threatening, just hasn't cashed yet. Hopefully we have a whole other series to watch him 'threaten" the other teams goal, and hopefully he can pop a couple.

 

[dave babych returns]

Nylander went into the AHL and put up near ppg numbers. Virtanen has, like, 1 point in 4 games? Not really looking like much of an offensive threat at all?

"Not looking out of place" shouldn't be good enough. Virtanen has to start producing. Put the puck in the net and it'll shut everyone up.

You do realize this is Nylander's third season in which he's played in a men's league, right?

Comparing him to a player making his pro debut late in the playoffs is asinine.

 

[The Jesus*]

Well, one is playing there first games in playoffs, in the third round. The other put up 3 assists in five games. One started in an energy role one playing top six minutes.

It's not exactly a easy comparison.

In the draft I wanted ehlers, nylander Virtanen, Ritchie at six. Having said that some of these posts are not taking in all aspects. Would you rather have a guy putting up 20 more points, but not a lot else or a guy who brings a physical dimension. All I am saying is it's not a straight comparison.

It's a 6th overall pick and we passed on elite talent to take him. I want production first. The other stuff he brings a plethora of depth grinders all over the league bring. And we can pick up any of em for a 2nd-3rd rounder if we wanted.

I want Virtanen to start proving his naysayers wrong. People who say he's got little to no awareness and hockey IQ. That he won't be able to think the game at the NHL level. He's going to lose his strength advantage (and to a lesser degree speed) in the bigs, so what's left to go on?

If he starts putting the puck in the net it will shut everyone up. But he's not doing it. All he's doing is reinforcing the "bah 3rd liner" rhetoric.

You do realize this is Nylander's third season in which he's played in a men's league, right?

Comparing him to a player making his pro debut late in the playoffs is asinine.

A bit unfair? Perhaps. But I don't think it's asinine. Nylander isn't the only 18 year old to step into the AHL and produce at impressive rates.

I made my piece above, and I'll leave it at that.

 

[racerjoe]

It's a 6th overall pick and we passed on elite talent to take him. I want production first. The other stuff he brings a plethora of depth grinders all over the league bring. And we can pick up any of em for a 2nd-3rd rounder if we wanted.

I want Virtanen to start proving his naysayers wrong. People who say he's got little to no awareness and hockey IQ. That he won't be able to think the game at the NHL level. He's going to lose his strength advantage (and to a lesser degree speed) in the bigs, so what's left to go on?

If he starts putting the puck in the net it will shut everyone up. But he's not doing it. All he's doing is reinforcing the "bah 3rd liner" rhetoric.



A bit unfair? Perhaps. But I don't think it's asinine. Nylander isn't the only 18 year old to step into the AHL and produce at impressive rates.

I made my piece above, and I'll leave it at that.

Ok, you want improvement, Jake doubled his assists per game this season. Really the thing that went down this year was his goals, which isn't unexpected from someone who came off shoulder surgery. If he has the same goals per game as last season, (32 taking games into account) he is a 1.3 ppg player, and everyone is praising the pick.

Take also into account he beat out the #4 draft pick for a spot on team Canada and you do quickly realize there is more to the game than simple stats.

As Win has pointed out numerous times, he is also doing this from the second line with terrible linemates against some of the toughest competition.

But you are right lets look at a FOUR GAME sample size.

 

[The Jesus*]

Ok, you want improvement, Jake doubled his assists per game this season. Really the thing that went down this year was his goals, which isn't unexpected from someone who came off shoulder surgery. If he has the same goals per game as last season, (32 taking games into account) he is a 1.3 ppg player, and everyone is praising the pick.

Take also into account he beat out the #4 draft pick for a spot on team Canada and you do quickly realize there is more to the game than simple stats.

As Win has pointed out numerous times, he is also doing this from the second line with terrible linemates against some of the toughest competition.

But you are right lets look at a FOUR GAME sample size.

For crying out loud, none of that means anything. He's supposed to be an elite prospect. I don't care about any of that. I don't care what line he's on, what level of competition he's facing in the AHL.

Put the puck in the net. It's really simple. Nothing else matters.

 

[arsmaster*]

But you posted that he isn't a scoring threat....he is, just hasn't cashed. Your just looking at the box scores IMO. There is plenty of footage of him creating and getting his own chances, he just hasn't put one in.

 

[Zarpan]

For crying out loud, none of that means anything. He's supposed to be an elite prospect. I don't care about any of that. I don't care what line he's on, what level of competition he's facing in the AHL.

Put the puck in the net. It's really simple. Nothing else matters.

Top prospects often put up middling offensive numbers when thrust into the AHL playoffs without much pro seasoning.

Bobby Ryan: 2 points in his first 9 AHL playoff games (no regular season experience) in his draft + 1 year. Scored 1 goal in 19 AHL playoff games.

Logan Couture: 3 points in 16 AHL games (including 12 playoff games) in his draft + 2 year.

James Van Riemsdyk: 2 points in 11 AHL games (including 4 playoff games) in his draft + 2 year.

I think the problem is that you're impatient with prospect development and have unrealistic expectations about what prospects should do in their first year or two when thrust into the AHL playoffs.

All those players above ended up with 30 goal, 60 point NHL seasons yet put up low production numbers in the AHL playoffs (and were older than Jake by a bit too). I really don't understand the griping about his AHL performance.

 

[CanaFan]

Put the puck in the net. It's really simple. Nothing else matters.

Sure, if you're talking about Game 7 of the SCF and all that matters is whether you win or lose at that moment.

But when you are talking about an 18 your old kid and whether he looks like a future scorer someday then lots of other things matter a whole lot. Scoring isn't something players just "do", it is the result of a series of things they do. Right now Jake is doing a lot of things well, hence he is creating scoring chances. Certainly his finish could be better and we must hope that comes in time, as is the case for many young players transitioning to a higher level of play.

But you're quite wrong to say nothing else matters besides how many pucks he puts in the net right now.