All purpose draft-gripe thread

[Vankiller Whale]

Also want to add Ehlers ES PPG = 1.08
Virtanen's ES PPG = 0.72

Then consider Virtanen played in much harder conditions. High QoC, Low QoT. + Virtanen's shoulder surgery.

Q also is pretty bad compared to the W.

Source?

And also any difference in quality between the Q and dub is marginal at best, as per the stats of how point production in those leagues translate to the NHL.

 

[Vankiller Whale]

I don't know how anyone can come to a definitive conclusion that Ehlers is defensively better than Virt, taking into account that there is no systems play in the Q.

Even if you haven't watched them there's a reason why one gets time on the top PK unit while the other doesn't.

And again with the "Lol QMJHL". How many games in the QMJHL did you watch this past year?

 

[Jimson Hogarth*]

Even if you haven't watched them there's a reason why one gets time on the top PK unit while the other doesn't.

The reason is the coaching staff and how they set up special teams.

 

[Vankiller Whale]

The reason is the coaching staff and how they set up special teams.

Yes, generally the coaching staff sets up their special teams so that their best offensive players play on the PP and the best defensive players play on the PK.

 

[Jimson Hogarth*]

Yes, generally the coaching staff sets up their special teams so that their best offensive players play on the PP and the best defensive players play on the PK.

Not necessarily.

 

[Vankiller Whale]

Not necessarily.

So you think Ducharme wants to play Ehlers on the PK despite being a bad defensive player and despite him already playing some of the most ice time in the CHL?

Or is it that French wants to conserve Virtanen's energy by not playing him on the PK so that he can play more minutes at ES and on the PP?

 

[DadBod]

I find it crazy that we just keep GOING IN CIRCLES I don't think it shocks anyone to believe Ehlers is more skilled than JV. But we didn't draft JV to be the next P. Kane. He brings more tools to the table than Ehlers. It's a give-n-take type deal.

I do how ever like comparing Baertschi to Ehlers. Both play a very similar game, both very skilled, both put up crazy numbers in the CHL.

 

[Vankiller Whale]

I do how ever like comparing Baertschi to Ehlers. Both play a very similar game, both very skilled, both put up crazy numbers in the CHL.

There's really no more reason to compare Ehlers to Baertschi than there is Ehlers to Giroux or Virtanen to Ryan O'Marra or Virtanen to Carter.

Like you can almost always find a great player or a meh player to compare someone to, but it doesn't really mean anything unless you look at the aggregate.

 

[VanillaCoke]

I'm still just amazed how God awful our drafting has been and how the scouting staff is essentially the same.

 

[Jimson Hogarth*]

So you think Ducharme wants to play Ehlers on the PK despite being a bad defensive player and despite him already playing some of the most ice time in the CHL?

Or is it that French wants to conserve Virtanen's energy by not playing him on the PK so that he can play more minutes at ES and on the PP?

Sometimes certain coaches will play offensive players on the pk for an offensive chance on a quick break etc. happens even at the NHL level. I don't think it's a great way to judge defensive ability, especially at 5 on 5.

 

[CanaFan]

There's really no more reason to compare Ehlers to Baertschi than there is Ehlers to Giroux or Virtanen to Ryan O'Marra or Virtanen to Carter.

Like you can almost always find a great player or a meh player to compare someone to, but it doesn't really mean anything unless you look at the aggregate.

I agree with this wholeheartedly.

 

[Vankiller Whale]

Sometimes certain coaches will play offensive players on the pk for an offensive chance on a quick break etc. happens even at the NHL level. I don't think it's a great way to judge defensive ability, especially at 5 on 5.

Well if you want to look solely at 5-on-5 how about +/- ? Which if anything would favour Virtanen given that he played on a much better team.

But really the best way is to just watch them play. I didn't see much of either of them this past year unfortunately but in their draft years Ehlers was far more pro-active defensively and better at reading the play and knowing where to be.

 

[WTG]

Source?

And also any difference in quality between the Q and dub is marginal at best, as per the stats of how point production in those leagues translate to the NHL.

Deployment-wise Virtanen's estimated Quality of Competition is 1.249 which is the 17th most difficult in the WHL among all regular players. His estimated Quality of Teammates is quite low at 0.59, which is in the bottom 3rd of the league. This suggests that Virtanen is being used in very difficult minutes and he is coming out quite well.

http://canucksarmy.com/2015/2/17/canucks-army-midterm-prospect-rankings-2-jake-virtanen


The Dub has more/higher quality talent than the Q.

2013 Dub:
8 first rounders (4 still in WHL)
5 second rounders (5 still in WHL)
4 third rounders (3 still in WHL)

2014 Dub:
9 first rounders (9 still in WHL)
2 second rounders (2 still in WHL)
8 third rounders (8 still in WHL)

Adds up to 13 first rounders, 7 second rounders and 11 third rounders so 31 players.


2013 Q:
6 first rounders (2 still in Q)
9 second rounders (6 still in Q)
4 third rounders (2 still in Q)

2014 Q:
1 first rounder (1 still in Q)
4 second rounders (4 still in Q)
0 third rounders

Adds up to 3 first rounders that stil play in the Q, 10 second rounders and 2 third rounders. So 15 in total.


The Dub clearly is more dense with talent. Making it a harder league..

Also, to make it fair I'll add players on the NHL central scouting of the 2015 draft.

2015 Q:
8 first rounders
9 second rounders
7 third rounders

2015 WHL:
9 first rounders
5 second rounders
7 third rounders

But even when you add 3 years of talent the Dub still comes out ahead with top end talent.

2013-15 Q: 11 1st rounders, 19 second rounders, 9 third rounders, 44 total
2013-15 WHL: 22 1st rounders, 12 second rounders, 18 third rounders, 52 total

 

[me2]

http://canucksarmy.com/2015/2/17/canucks-army-midterm-prospect-rankings-2-jake-virtanen


The Dub has more/higher quality talent than the Q.

2013 Dub:
8 first rounders (4 still in WHL)
5 second rounders (5 still in WHL)
4 third rounders (3 still in WHL)

2014 Dub:
9 first rounders (9 still in WHL)
2 second rounders (2 still in WHL)
8 third rounders (8 still in WHL)

Adds up to 13 first rounders, 7 second rounders and 11 third rounders so 31 players.


2013 Q:
6 first rounders (2 still in Q)
9 second rounders (6 still in Q)
4 third rounders (2 still in Q)

2014 Q:
1 first rounder (1 still in Q)
4 second rounders (4 still in Q)
0 third rounders

Adds up to 3 first rounders that stil play in the Q, 10 second rounders and 2 third rounders. So 15 in total.


The Dub clearly is more dense with talent. Making it a harder league..

There arebalso 22 WHL Teams to 18 Q teams. Less talent in the Q but less teams as well. Talent per team is what matters. If Q teams were terrible they would never win memorial cups.

 

[WTG]

13 first rounders on 22 teams is more talent per team than 3 first rounders on 18 teams.

 

[Vankiller Whale]

http://canucksarmy.com/2015/2/17/canucks-army-midterm-prospect-rankings-2-jake-virtanen

That doesn't mean anything unless you have the numbers for Ehlers as well.

There arebalso 22 WHL Teams to 18 Q teams. Less talent in the Q but less teams as well. Talent per team is what matters.

Bingo. If you wanted to make a gross comparison, you would multiply 44 players by 22/18 = 52.8, which is essentially exactly the same as the WHL in terms of quality players relative to the size of the league.

 

[WTG]

That doesn't mean anything unless you have the numbers for Ehlers as well.



Bingo. If you wanted to make a gross comparison, you would multiply 44 players by 22/18 = 52.8, which is essentially exactly the same as the WHL in terms of quality players relative to the size of the league.

Let me re iterate.

3 Q first rounders played in the Q that are either older/same age than Ehlers.

13 WHL first rounders played in the WHL that are either older/same age as Virtanen.


Can you see the disparity?

You can't take players that are younger than Ehlers/Virtanen to make your case.

The Q that Ehlers is playing in is significantly less skilled than the W that Virtanen is playing in.

 

[WTG]

Also, if you wan't to go further

2013-15 top 10 drafted/projected players still playing in their league
WHL: 7
Q: 2

First rounders
WHL: 22
Q: 11


WHL is just straight up more saturated with talent.

 

[Vankiller Whale]

13 first rounders on 22 teams is more talent per team than 3 first rounders on 18 teams.

Guys like Barbashev, Erne, Zykov, Duclair, Dauphin, etc are producing as well as most first rounders still in the CHL. Same with Bjorkstrand, Point, Petan, etc.

I don't see the point in drawing an arbitrary line at 30, as it implies someone like John Quenneville is making the league more difficult to play in than Ivan Barbashev.

Besides, there are all sorts of no-name overagers that are among the best players in the CHL despite not being picked highly or at all.

 

[WTG]

I've presented data.

Draw conclusions from it all you want. I think it's pretty clear which league is better by a good margin. But if you don't think so than that's fine. You sound like you have already made up your mind.

If I can't change your mind with evidence then there is no point.

 

[Vankiller Whale]

I've presented data.

Draw conclusions from it all you want. I think it's pretty clear which league is better by a good margin. But if you don't think so than that's fine. You sound like you have already made up your mind.

If I can't change your mind with evidence then there is no point.

There's a big difference between "data" and "evidence".

The only real evidence available when it comes to comparing how well scoring in the leagues translates to the NHL has been done already. On average every point scored in the WHL translates to 0.30 points in the NHL and every point in the Q translates to 0.28 points in the NHL.

But even that is susceptible to random fluctuations from year to year and is based on data from years that are not at all relevant to the CHL right now in terms of the player base.

Saying that there are more first rounders in the WHL is meaningless when hardly any of the best players playing in those leagues are actually first rounders

 

[WTG]

The only real evidence available when it comes to comparing how well scoring in the leagues translates to the NHL has been done already. On average every point scored in the WHL translates to 0.30 points in the NHL and every point in the Q translates to 0.28 points in the NHL.

Maybe if you take it data from a 10 year span sure.

Then it averages out. But there is no denying that the 2013-15 Q is significantly weaker than it usually is.

The WHL is having a upswing in talent while the Q had a down swing.

 

[Vankiller Whale]

Maybe if you take it data from a 10 year span sure.

Then it averages out. But there is no denying that the 2013-15 Q is significantly weaker than it usually is.

The WHL is having a upswing in talent while the Q had a down swing.

What I don't think you understand is that having a down year (2014) in first round picks doesn't mean that the league as a whole is weaker.

Here are the top scorers from each league:

Oliver Bjorkstrand (3rd)
Trevor Cox (undrafted)
Tim McGauley(undrafted)
Cole Sanford (undrafted)
Cole Ully (5th)
Nick Merkley (2015 eligible)
Nic Petan (2nd)
Adam Helewka (undrafted)
Brayden Point (3rd)
Adam Tambellini(3rd)


Conor Garland(undrafted)
Danick Martel(undrafted)
Nikolaj Ehlers(1st)
Nikita Jevpavlovs(undrafted)
Angelo Miceli(undrafted)
Alexis Loiseau (undrafted)
Ivan Barbashev (2nd)
Anthony Beauvillier (2015 eligible)
Anthony DeLuca(undrafted)
Anthony Richard (2015 eligible)

It's so laughable that you're trying to judge the quality of the entire league by the number of 1st rounders when you only have like maybe 5 guys staying in that league to develop in a given year.

 

[Jimson Hogarth*]

Some people are such Ehlers homers they are trying to convince us the Q is a good hockey league. I personally find it unwatchable.

 

[WTG]

Talent = top scorer now?

What about defenseman? The Dub is notorious for pumping out defenseman. They will probably never outscore some 5'6" guy with realistically 0 NHL upside. What about Dane Fox. Lit up the OHL but he doesn't have that much NHL upside either.

What about goaltenders/two-way forwards?

It's laughable you are trying to judge the quality of the entire league by the numbers of top scorers that aren't drafted.