Coach Discussion: All Purpose Coaching Thread Part III

[MrBoJangelz71]

The bolded part.

Compared to goalies with 10 plus games thus far this season, Helly sits 6th and 11th for SV% and GAA % ?

 

[Gm0ney]

Maurice saying " I'm not going anywhere " is right up there with " It's nothing sinister " to " It's day to day " when it comes to coach's sound bites.

You are leaving until you sign a piece of paper saying otherwise.

And if he does end up going somewhere else, it was because Chevy and Chipman didn't want him here...

 

[surixon]

Compared to goalies with 10 plus games thus far this season, Helly sits 6th and 11th for SV% and GAA % ?

He is third among clear cut starters which is elite territory.

I'm not interested in comparing him to backups or goalies who haven't played half their teams games.

 

[Duke749]

Compared to goalies with 10 plus games thus far this season, Helly sits 6th and 11th for SV% and GAA % ?

Ok that clears that up. You typed “SV%” both times. Lol

 

[DRW204]

3rd worst team in terms of 5v5 xGA per game

6th best in terms of 5v5 GA per game

 

[Gm0ney]

If Arizona was getting just average goaltending, Dallas, Islanders, Boston, Avs, pretty much the majority of teams in the top 10 in the league, they would all be outside a playoff spot right now.

That is kinda my point, you need above average goaltending to be an above average team.

And is our amazing goaltending any more amazing than several of the top teams in the leauge?

Helly sits 6th in the league in SV% against goalies with 10 plus games
Helly sits 11th in SV% against goalies with 10 plus games

Every team in the top 10 in the entire league, outside of the Caps, has their goaltending in the top 15 of both stats as well as GSAA stats.

Yes, the Jets' amazing goaltending has been more amazing, by and large.

Hellebuyck is leading the league in GSAA at 5v5. He's second to Kuemper in all-situations GSAA. He's 3rd in GSAA/60, so it's not just a result of the enormous number of xGA he's faced this year - and he has faced an enormous number of xGA...6th most at 5v5; 7th most in all situations.

So, yes it's difficult to make the Top 10 with Bottom 15 goaltending...but I think it's even more difficult to make the Top 10 while being in the Bottom 5 in xGF and xGA.

Here's the Bottom 5 xGF% and their points% and rank:
Rangers (43.87%, .545, 19th)
Red Wings (44.58%, .300, 31st)
Jets (45.89%, .636, 7th)
Blackhawks (46.60%, .471, 27th)
Canucks (47.48%, .529, 23rd)

I guess it's the...coaching?

 

[Guffman]

I think it's even more difficult to make the Top 10 while being in the Bottom 5 in xGF and xGA.

I took a look at the Top 11 teams based on xGF %.

1 team is in third place
2 teams are in wild card positions
8 teams are out of the playoffs

So, why are you placing such prominence on statistics that has a high correlation to loser teams?

Love these "advanced" statistics.

 

[Gm0ney]

I took a look at the Top 11 teams based on xGF %.

1 team is in third place
2 teams are in wild card positions
8 teams are out of the playoffs

So, why are you placing such prominence on statistics that has a high correlation to loser teams?

Love these "advanced" statistics.

Hmmm...Top 11 seems like a strange cutoff. And you should really be looking at P% since these teams have played a different number of games. Why, if I didn't know better, I'd say you're cherry picking!

The thing is, the Jets are at the extreme - it's not just they have an xGF% under 50...it's way under 50%. 2nd or 3rd worst (it's 2nd worst if you use S&V adjusted). 43.85 - that's 6.15 points under 50%. The best xGF team is only +4.62 (Pittsburgh...54.62% if you don't have a calculator handy ).

Worst team xGF for a full season:
2018-19: Detroit 44.10
2017-18: Buffalo 45.31
2016-17: Arizona 41.77 (next worst was Colorado at 44.52)
2015-16: Colorado 43.89
2014-15: Buffalo 38.16 (Next: Colorado 42.35, Leafs 43.62 - McDavid Sweepstakes)
2013-14: Buffalo 36.33 (Next: Leafs 42.75)
2012-13: Edmonton 43.60 (Next: Buffalo 43.82)
2011-12: Minnesota 46.30

Anyway, the Jets are basically sitting on the 10th worst xGF% in the NHL since the team relocated here. There are no playoff bubble teams on that list. So I dunno...take solace where you can on the validity of xGF. Still, stubbornly I try to crack the nut / in which the riddle of our team is shut...

 

[Eyeseeing]

And if he does end up going somewhere else, it was because Chevy and Chipman didn't want him here...

Not necessarily.
There’s an opportunity in Seattle and if Paul is interested in pursuing it I doubt Chipman would get in the way of Maurice’s pursuit of other opportunities.
It would be Paul’s choice 100%
There’s no indication whatsoever that TNSE wants to move on from Maurice.
I think TNSE is leaving the door open for Paul to decide his next move.

 

[Guffman]

Hmmm...Top 11 seems like a strange cutoff. And you should really be looking at P% since these teams have played a different number of games. Why, if I didn't know better, I'd say you're cherry picking!

The thing is, the Jets are at the extreme - it's not just they have an xGF% under 50...it's way under 50%. 2nd or 3rd worst (it's 2nd worst if you use S&V adjusted). 43.85 - that's 6.15 points under 50%. The best xGF team is only +4.62 (Pittsburgh...54.62% if you don't have a calculator handy ).

Worst team xGF for a full season:
2018-19: Detroit 44.10
2017-18: Buffalo 45.31
2016-17: Arizona 41.77 (next worst was Colorado at 44.52)
2015-16: Colorado 43.89
2014-15: Buffalo 38.16 (Next: Colorado 42.35, Leafs 43.62 - McDavid Sweepstakes)
2013-14: Buffalo 36.33 (Next: Leafs 42.75)
2012-13: Edmonton 43.60 (Next: Buffalo 43.82)
2011-12: Minnesota 46.30

Anyway, the Jets are basically sitting on the 10th worst xGF% in the NHL since the team relocated here. There are no playoff bubble teams on that list. So I dunno...take solace where you can on the validity of xGF. Still, stubbornly I try to crack the nut / in which the riddle of our team is shut...

I dunno dude... when 8 of the top 11 xGF% teams are not in a playoff position, it just doesn't seem like an appropriate stat to hang your hat on. If you don't like my cut-off, how about I take the top two teams in each division and see where they rank:

12, 17, 18, 21, 23, 24, 25, and 27

Looks like expected goals is pretty bogus since it doesn't correlate to actual success at all. In fact, a bad xGF% is more telling of a good team, at least for this year!

 

[nobody imp0rtant]

I really don’t know what some of you people expect him to say in these situations.

I think you're missing the point. We all expect him to say these things. We just don't believe him when he does because it is the expected response, and not necessarily the honest response. Maurice is smart enough to give the expected response. Wheeler... not so much.

 

[nobody imp0rtant]

Yes, the Jets' amazing goaltending has been more amazing, by and large.

Reminds me of the Emo Philips one-liner about his teacher:

"She was bi and large".

 

[Duke749]

I think you're missing the point. We all expect him to say these things. We just don't believe him when he does because it is the expected response, and not necessarily the honest response. Maurice is smart enough to give the expected response. Wheeler... not so much.

If this were the case people wouldn’t keep bitching about it. So no, I’m not missing the point.

 

[grieves]

Expected goals should have a weak correlation to winning because winning is so random in any case (this game is very random). That's always why I'm into playing well and not into winning per se.

Let's say we have a 5 game sample, with the results: 6-1, 6-1, 1-2, 1-2, 1-2
15 goals for, 8 goals against, only 40% games won.

But I feel like in the case of this season, pre-Little-injury, and post-Little-injury should be separated because the team is has improved drastically with the changes Little's injury prompted. Hellebuyck is for sure even still making our results prettier than they perhaps would be otherwise, and we have crazy good finishing talent, so beating xGF% is probably something we are capable of. But we can't allow it to mask if we have underlying structural problems (although I'm not too worried at the moment, especially if we can do something about our special teams)

The manhandling by the Canes was very similar to how Vegas beat us in the playoffs. No answer for relentless and quick forechecking and transitions. They would even have all three forwards below the goal line with some of their forechecking, it was crazy (and effective).

 

[KingBogo]

I dunno dude... when 8 of the top 11 xGF% teams are not in a playoff position, it just doesn't seem like an appropriate stat to hang your hat on. If you don't like my cut-off, how about I take the top two teams in each division and see where they rank:

12, 17, 18, 21, 23, 24, 25, and 27

Looks like expected goals is pretty bogus since it doesn't correlate to actual success at all. In fact, a bad xGF% is more telling of a good team, at least for this year!

It's a stat that needs some work IMO. Last night was probably the Jets worst game of the season and we "won" the xGF% quite easily.

 

[Ducky10]

I think Maurice’s desire to finally win a Stanley Cup would override any decision to move to Seattle. The Jets are by and large a couple of pieces away, unlike Vegas it would take years for Seattle to move themselves into that position. If TNSE wants him to stay, he’ll take his shot here.

 

[grieves]

It's a stat that needs some work IMO. Last night was probably the Jets worst game of the season and we "won" the xGF% quite easily.

This is actually pretty interesting, and this would be a good game to dissect thoroughly if one was so inclined.

Why is the eye-test and xGoals telling such a different story? Does the eye-test like o-zone-time even with minimal low-quality shots on goal, and is it blind to counter-attack-rushes that don't provide o-zone time but still gets a really good scoring chance (and is it in-fact correct in doing so, which seems at least somewhat likely)? Or is the problem with the measuring of said chances? Questions for the philosophers.

 

[Neuf]

Is PDO luck? Is PDO coaching impact? Save %?

Paul Maurice coaching win %, team PDO, team save %. Normalized (0 = average)

I have no conclusions, just wanted to see for myself.

 

[Gm0ney]

This is actually pretty interesting, and this would be a good game to dissect thoroughly if one was so inclined.

Why is the eye-test and xGoals telling such a different story? Does the eye-test like o-zone-time even with minimal low-quality shots on goal, and is it blind to counter-attack-rushes that don't provide o-zone time but still gets a really good scoring chance (and is it in-fact correct in doing so, which seems at least somewhat likely)? Or is the problem with the measuring of said chances? Questions for the philosophers.

In all situations (unadjusted), the Jets lost the XG battle 3.28 to 2.98. Even 5v5 adjusted they only won 2.17 to 2.00...and they only got their head above water there in garbage time.

 

[grieves]

In all situations (unadjusted), the Jets lost the XG battle 3.28 to 2.98. Even 5v5 adjusted they only won 2.17 to 2.00...and they only got their head above water there in garbage time.

Thanks for that. I was under the impression we won xGF% clearly for some reason. That makes a lot more sense, especially considering score effects.

And unless I'm mistaking the team, the Canes have previously been a good Corsi team but not a good xGF (meaning they take a lot of low-percentage-shots).

The Canes seem different now. They have evolved exactly like Ehlers has. They can actually turn possession into goals much more effectively.

 

[Gm0ney]

Is PDO luck? Is PDO coaching impact? Save %?

View attachment 294181

Paul Maurice coaching win %, team PDO, team save %. Normalized (0 = average)

I have no conclusions, just wanted to see for myself.

It's SV% + SH%. It's not surprising it tracks closely to wins. If you're getting plus goaltending and plus shooting in some favorable combination, you'd expect to win pretty often.

 

[nobody imp0rtant]

The manhandling by the Canes was very similar to how Vegas beat us in the playoffs. No answer for relentless and quick forechecking and transitions. They would even have all three forwards below the goal line with some of their forechecking, it was crazy (and effective).

I've felt for some time that a full court press is the way to beat this team consistently. Our players just start thrashing (heh heh) about in their end like roosters with their ***** cut off. Why don't more teams employ this? Maybe because it's a shit load of work. You just couldn't play this way game in and game out through an 82 game season and still expect to have anything in the tank for the playoffs. So, I guess we just got "lucky" that the Canes decided to bring their A game last night. And that's why I think the Jets have as good a record as they do. Most nights, teams just don't play that hard at this point in the season.

In the new year, that's all going to change like it does every year. The Switch will get flipped, teams will plug in their guitar with lots of sustain, and the amp will get cranked up to 11. I don't expect Maurice to have an answer for it then anymore than he's had an answer in the past. Unless Helly can perform miracles, the Jets song will be sung in D Minor, because that's the saddest key.

 

[grieves]

I've felt for some time that a full court press is the way to beat this team consistently. Our players just start thrashing (heh heh) about in their end like roosters with their ***** cut off. Why don't more teams employ this? Maybe because it's a **** load of work. You just couldn't play this way game in and game out through an 82 game season and still expect to have anything in the tank for the playoffs. So, I guess we just got "lucky" that the Canes decided to bring their A game last night. And that's why I think the Jets have as good a record as they do. Most nights, teams just don't play that hard at this point in the season.

In the new year, that's all going to change like it does every year. The Switch will get flipped, teams will plug in their guitar with lots of sustain, and the amp will get cranked up to 11. I don't expect Maurice to have an answer for it then anymore than he's had an answer in the past. Unless Helly can perform miracles, the Jets song will be sung in D Minor, because that's the saddest key.

I can agree with the first paragraph.

But with the second I am more hesitant. I think this coaching staff is capable of adapting and not doing the same errors again. This team is in relatively good shape, as long as there is the fundamental realization that team-chemistry needs to be worked at constantly by testing, there is a good future here with this core and supporting cast. No-one knows how it will go. That's an interesting story that is about to unfold.

 

[nobody imp0rtant]

I can agree with the first paragraph.

But with the second I am more hesitant. I think this coaching staff is capable of adapting and not doing the same errors again. This team is in relatively good shape, as long as there is the fundamental realization that team-chemistry needs to be worked at constantly by testing, there is a good future here with this core and supporting cast. No-one knows how it will go. That's an interesting story that is about to unfold.

It's possible. However, my programming forces my expectations toward the pessimistic. This is well known.

 

[Whileee]

In all situations (unadjusted), the Jets lost the XG battle 3.28 to 2.98. Even 5v5 adjusted they only won 2.17 to 2.00...and they only got their head above water there in garbage time.

I'm not sure about the value of "adjusted" xG. Why should the expected goal value of a shot depend on game situation?