Re: my table, damnit Hughes was drafted 7th so that misses up my table, but strengthens the argument for non-top 5...
I opted for top 9 Norris voting for two reasons. Most critically it fit in my max 9x9 table (with labels) on hf. And secondly, it was the best way as I didn't want to look at scoring alone, but there's not enough historical data on like corsi or fenwick for our on-ice save percentage.
That said, helpful as this illuminated your thinking (I think it has anyway).
What I'm reading is you're looking for an elite two-way d-man. Premier defensive D (who aren't at least very good offensively): Slavin, Vlasic, Hjalmmarsson, Toews, Lindholm, Brodin, Roy, Samuelson are even more rare than the offensive guys, and even more seldom taken in the top 10. Chris Phillips, Ekblad, Luke Schenn, Bouwmeester, McDonagh (12) are the closest I can think of that ended up more defensive leaning. Ekblad and Bouw projected as elite two-way d-men when drafted. Schenn was mediocre and Phillips was a really weak draft year.
There's some stat (Easy would've had it- RIP....@jux?) about projectability of defensive d-men scoring from juniors. The number will be wrong but it's something like if a player doesn't score at like .65 PPG in junior D0, it doesn't matter how good they are defensively, they won't make the NHL. Vlasic (albeit with Radulov in the Q) was putting up what 1.1 PPG or something like that?
@Zarzh, My hunch is you want what all of us want. At some point in the next year or two we end up with another top 4 pick and the guy available is a Heiskanen, Power, Dahlin, Pietro, or Suter. Guys who can play two-way, number 1 PK, number 1/2 PP, 25 shutdown minutes a night with size, physicality, and strong skating/great first pass. In a few instances, the top 2 (or 3 d-men) drafted in a given year end up being top pairing guys, but they're not there every year, and they fit that two-way #1 profile maybe half the time. No wonder Chicago, Tampa, and LA won so many cups, Keith, Doughty, and Hedman were special defensemen on teams with a franchise center, elite #2 forward, and depth.
2010- none in first
2011- none in first (Hamilton offensive first is closest)
2012- Lindholm is borderline
2013- Morrisey is borderline
2014- Ekblad is the best, but I'd say he's a #2
2015- Hanafin and Werenski are both close but I'd say no
2016- MacAvoy is a #1/franchise d-man, but not that profile (I'd count him)
2017- Heiskanen (yes), Makar (see above)
2018- Dahlin (yes), Hughes (see above), Bouchard/Dobson (might fit, but probably borderline), K'Adre Miller also intriguing
2019- Seider (solid bet), Byram (seems unlikely), Harley (looks promising, but more 2/3)
2020- Sanderson (solid bet)
2021- Power (yes), Clarke (bares watching- his skating scared me, but I wanted him over Eklund), Hughes (offensive profile, but has the size
2022- Nemec/Jiricek/Korchinski all are intriguing, but would be surprised if any of them get there
In 13 years, I count four elite two-way guys (Heiskanen, Dahlin, Power, MacAvoy), two I'd bet on (Seider, Sanderson), two (Hughes, Makar) so damn good I'd happily build around an offensive d-man. If Ekblad, Morrisey, Hanafin, or Dobson are your number one I think you're more than content to have them, but always looking for an upgrade.
I think you could probably build a contender without a franchise d-man, but you need a really unique mix. 4/6 can move the puck well, good defensive ability, high IQ, one's a PPQB, a big but well-skating group.
Something like Boyle, Vlasic, Blake, DIllon, Demelo, and Huskins? Boyle was pretty close to a top 10-15 guy, so maybe it's a lower-level guy. Meanwhile you had Pronger, Chara, Niedermayer, Lidstrom just absolutely dominating the league. Hopefully Hensler or Schaefer get to the Heiskanen level but it's just so rare.
